• Title/Summary/Keyword: electricity price

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Machine Learning Based Stock Price Fluctuation Prediction Models of KOSDAQ-listed Companies Using Online News, Macroeconomic Indicators, Financial Market Indicators, Technical Indicators, and Social Interest Indicators (온라인 뉴스와 거시경제 지표, 금융 지표, 기술적 지표, 관심도 지표를 이용한 코스닥 상장 기업의 기계학습 기반 주가 변동 예측)

  • Kim, Hwa Ryun;Hong, Seung Hye;Hong, Helen
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.448-459
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we propose a method of predicting the next-day stock price fluctuations of 10 KOSDAQ-listed companies in 5G, autonomous driving, and electricity sectors by training SVM, XGBoost, and LightGBM models from macroeconomic·financial market indicators, technical indicators, social interest indicators, and daily positive indices extracted from online news. In the three experiments to find out the usefulness of social interest indicators and daily positive indices, the average accuracy improved when each indicator and index was added to the models. In addition, when feature selection was performed to analyze the superiority of the extracted features, the average importance ranking of the social interest indicator and daily positive index was 5.45 and 1.08, respectively, it showed higher importance than the macroeconomic financial market indicators and technical indicators. With the results of these experiments, we confirmed the effectiveness of the social interest indicators as alternative data and the daily positive index for predicting stock price fluctuation.

Econometric Study on Forecasting Demand Response in Smart Grid (스마트그리드 수요반응 추정을 위한 계량경제학적 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Dong Joo;Park, Sunju
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.133-142
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    • 2012
  • Cournot model is one of representative models among many game theoretic approaches available for analyzing competitive market models. Recent years have witnessed various kinds of attempts to model competitive electricity markets using the Cournot model. Cournot model is appropriate for oligopoly market which is one characteristic of electric power industry requiring huge amount of capital investment. When we use Cournot model for the application to electricity market, it is prerequisite to assume the downward sloping demand curve in the right direction. Generators in oligopoly market could try to maximize their profit by exercising the market power like physical or economic withholding. However advanced electricity markets also have demand side bidding which makes it possible for the demand to respond to the high market price by reducing their consumption. Considering this kind of demand reaction, Generators couldn't abuse their market power. Instead, they try to find out an equilibrium point which is optimal for both sides, generators and demand. This paper suggest a quantitative analysis between market variables based on econometrics for estimating demand responses in smart grid environment.

Assessment of the Potential Consumers' Preference for the V2G System (V2G 시스템에 대한 잠재적 소비자의 선호 평가)

  • Lim, Seul-Ye;Kim, Hee-Hoon;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2016
  • Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) system, bi-direction power trading technology, enables drivers possessing electric vehicle to sell the spare electricity charged in the vehicle to power distribution company. The drivers gain profit by charging electricity in the day time of high electricity rate. In this regard, the government is preparing the policies of building and supporting V2G infrastructure and demanding the potential consumers' preference for the V2G system. This paper attempts to analyze the consumers' preference using the data from obtained a survey of randomly selected 1,000 individuals. To this end, choice experiment, an economic technique, is employed here. The attributes considered in the study are residual amount of electricity, electricity trading hours, required plug-in time, and price measured as an amount additional to current gasoline vehicle price. The multinomial logit model, which requires the assumption of 'independence of irrelevant alternatives', is applied but the assumption could not be satisfied in our data. Thus, we finally utilized nested logit model which does not require the assumption. All the parameter estimates in the utility function are statistically significant at the 10% level. The estimation results show that the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for one hour increase in electricity trading hours is estimated to be KRW 1,601,057. On the other hand, a one percent reduction in residual amount of electricity and one hour reduction in required plug-in time in V2G system are computed to be KRW -91,911 and -470,619, respectively. The findings can provide policy makers with useful information for decision-making about introducing and managing V2G system.

The Impact of Exchange Rate and Exchange rate Volatility on Stock Returns (환율과 환율변동성이 주식수익률에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sa-Young
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.181-200
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    • 2017
  • This study investigates the impact of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on the stock prices of eight industries from 2006 to 2015. The first and second exchange rate exposure of these eight industries is estimated with respect to four different exchange rates, namely the US dollar, Japanese yen, European currency unit, and British pound. In exchange rate exposure, stock prices in foods-beverages, paper-wood, electricity-gas, and banks industries are negatively related to exchange rate, whereas stock prices in electrical-electronic equp. and transport-equp. industries are positively related to exchange rate as expected. However stock price in machinery industry is negatively related to exchange rate, which is opposite to the expectation. Negative relationship is found between stock price in chemicals industry and exchange rate. In exchange rate volatility exposure, stock price in paper-wood industry is found to be negatively related to exchange rate volatility. Stock price in banks industry is also negatively related to exchange rate volatility. This result is opposite as expected, because banks are supposed to get more revenue by issuing derivatives related to foreign exchange when exchange rate volatility increases.

Self-Consumption Solar PV Economic Rate Analysis for RE100 Companies in Korea (한국 RE100 기업의 자가소비 태양광 발전 경제적 비율 분석)

  • Jong Yi Lee;Kyung Nam Kim
    • Current Photovoltaic Research
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.134-143
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    • 2023
  • Efforts are being made to respond to global warming. Interest in and demand for the private sector-led RE100 campaign is also increasing. Self-built solar power generation, one of the implementation tools for RE100, is not expanding. However, it can be an economical means of implementation in the long run. In this study, we intend to analyze the impact on the optimal ratio of self-solar power generation using HOMER simulation. OPR defines the optimal solar power generation ratio and looks into what changes there are in the optimal solar power ratio when self-power consumption increases and external power purchase price changes. As a result, the optimal rate of self-solar power generation has a low impact even if self-power consumption increases. As the external power unit price increases, the optimal ratio increases, and at a power unit price of 100 KRW/kWh, OPR is 24%; at 200 KRW/kWh OPR is 31%; and at 300 KRW/kWh OPR is 34%. This shows that the electricity price replaced during the life cycle has a high impact on the economic feasibility of solar power generation. However, when the external power unit price reached a certain level, the increase in OPR decreased. This shows that it is difficult for domestic companies to achieve RE100 based on the economic feasibility of solar energy alone. Therefore, efforts are needed to supply renewable energy in the public sector.

Increasing Customer Lifetime Value by Encouraging Customers to Pay Less in a Competitive Electricity Market (경쟁적 전력 시장 하에서 고객의 비용 절감을 통한 고객 평생 가치 증대에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Kwi-Seok;Cho, Jin-Hyung;Kang, Hwan-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.12
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    • pp.245-252
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    • 2009
  • The electrical power industry has been recognized as a natural monopoly industry for its technological and industrial characteristics. However, a competitive market system has been introduced to that industry in Europe, North America and Australia to overcome the inefficiencies originated from the monopolistic system for decades. In Korea, the power industry is expected to be placed in a competitive market system within several years after separation and privatization of vertically integrated industry in progress. Hence, there is a need for a research on the increase of customer value in that industry, however, existing studies have little dealt with that problem and there is no research on the price policy to consider churn and retention of customers. Therefore, this study provides a methodology for increasing customer loyalty and lifetime value by presenting the lowest pricing plan which leads to diminishing customers' cost. It is verified through an empirical examination that firms can enhance customer loyalty using a price element in that industry and maximize their profit by finding out customers whose lifetime values would increase.

Theoretical Design for the Production of Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) in a Closed Plant Factory

  • Bae, Jong Hyang;Austin, Jirapa;Jeon, Yoon-A;Cha, Mi-Kyung;Cho, Young-Yeol
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.840-844
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    • 2016
  • Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) is a grain crop with high nutritional value. The leaves and sprouts of quinoa can also be consumed either raw or cooked, providing considerably nutritional value as well as high antioxidant and anticancer activities. This study was carried out to obtain basic data to assist in the practical design of a plant factory with artificial lighting for the cultivation of quinoa as a leafy vegetable. We estimated the energy content of the quinoa and the electrical energy required to produce this crop. The yield was 1,000 plants per day, with a planting density and light intensity of $0.015m^2$ ($15{\times}10cm$) and $200{\mu}mol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$, respectively. The total number of plants, cultivation area, and electricity consumption were estimated to be 25,000, $375m^2$, and $93,750{\mu}mol{\cdot}s^{-1}$, respectively. White fluorescent lamps were used at a power of 20.4 kW from 1,857 fluorescent lamps (FL, 55 W), and the cost for electricity was approximately 1,820 dollars (exchange rate of $1 = 1,200 won) per month. For a daily harvest of 1,000 plants per day in a closed plant factory, the estimated light installation cost, total installation cost, and total production cost would be 15,473, 46,421, and 55,704 dollars, respectively. The calculated production cost per plant, including labor costs, would be 27 cents for the 25-day cultivation period, with a marketable ratio of 80%. Considering the annual total expenses, income, and depreciation costs, the selling price per plant was estimated to be approximately 56 cents.

Economic Analysis for a Tidal Power Plant Project using RETScreen - Focused on the Tidal Power Plant in Asan Bay (RETScreen을 활용한 조력발전 개발사업 경제성 분석 - 아산만 조력발전소 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Min-Ock;Jeong, Keun-Chae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.152-163
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    • 2013
  • In this research, we analyse the economic feasibility of a tidal power plant project which can efficiently generate mass, permanent, predictable, and homogeneous electric power. For the economic feasibility analysis, we used the RETScreen that is developed at the CANMET Energy Technology Center in Natural Resources Canada and widely utilized for analysing the economic feasibility and sensitivity of clean energy projects. Results from the feasibility and sensitivity analysis showd that the tidal power plant project in Korea has a enough economic feasibility, and its feasibility increases more as certified emission reductions price and electricity unit price increase. Based on the results from the feasibility study, we can solve the energy problems to be come in near future by constructing the tidal power plants in Korea more aggressively.

An Error Correction Model for Long Term Forecast of System Marginal Price (전력 계통한계가격 장기예측을 위한 오차수정모형)

  • Shin, Sukha;Yoo, Hanwook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.453-459
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    • 2021
  • The system marginal price of electricity is the amount paid to all the generating units, which is an important decision-making factor for the construction and maintenance of an electrical power unit. In this paper, we suggest a long-term forecasting model for calculating the system marginal price based on prices of natural gas and oil. As most variables used in the analysis are nonstationary time series, the long run relationship among the variables should be examined by cointegration tests. The forecasting model is similar to an error correction model which consists of a long run cointegrating equation and another equation for short run dynamics. To mitigate the robustness issue arising from the relatively small data sample, this study employs various testing and estimating methods. Compared to previous studies, this paper considers multiple fuel prices in the forecasting model of system marginal price, and provides greater emphasis on the robustness of analysis. As none of the cointegrating relations associated with system marginal price, natural gas price and oil price are excluded, three error correction models are estimated. Considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute error, the model based on the cointegrating relation between system marginal price and natural gas price performs best in the out-of-sample forecast.

Economic Feasibility Study for CO2 Ocean Sequestration (CO2 해양격리시스템의 기술.경제적 가능성평가)

  • Park, Se-Hun;Oh, Wee-Yeong;Kwon, Moon-Sang
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.451-461
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    • 2005
  • The $CO_2$ storage in geologic and oceanic reservoirs is considered to be one of the carbon management strategies for responding to global climate change. Ocean carbon sequestration is purposeful storage acceleration into the ocean of large amounts of carbon that would accumulate in the atmosphere and naturally enter the ocean over a longer timespan. Some technologies for $CO_2$ ocean sequestrations have been developed as a nation project. However, $CO_2$ ocean sequestrations are attractive because they have the advantage of vast capacity sequestration far away from industrial areas, and offer easier monitoring whereas less economic advantage has been indicated as one of the key barriers compared with $CO_2$ geosphere sequestration, which is produced as a byproduct. In this paper, a conceptual design for $CO_2$ ocean sequestration is introduced, and the preliminary examination is described. As a result, the $CO_2$ price, US$ 24/t shows far away from the economics. The causes come from the expensive $CO_2$ recovery cost and the low $CO_2$ price. The expensive $CO_2$ recovery cost is because too much electricity and water are consumed. In order to look for an economic balance point for $CO_2$ ocean sequestration, NPV=0, it is increases the $CO_2$ price. Finally 60.4$ per ton is found to be the balance price.