• Title/Summary/Keyword: election polls

Search Result 30, Processing Time 0.021 seconds

The History and Meaning of The Election Polls in Korea (선거여론조사의 역사와 의의)

  • 박무익
    • Survey Research
    • /
    • v.3 no.1
    • /
    • pp.91-118
    • /
    • 2002
  • Korean election polls has a history of fifteen years, which may seem too short while those of advanced countries such as the U.S and the UK has a history of one hundred fifty years. However, with various and creative attempts, some of the Korean research companies have developed election polls methods and theories which can be applied to Korean society. They also elevated accuracy of the election forecasts. In spite of short history the rational and scientific polls and forecasts done by some of the research companies including Gallup Korea are commented that they have improved the quality of Korean election culture. In the article, we will look into the process of the election polls which have been done seven times for 15 years, and then deal with the meaning of the election polls.

  • PDF

How Accurate are the Telephone Polls in Korea? (전화여론조사의 예측정확도 분석)

  • Cho, Sung-Kyum
    • Survey Research
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.57-72
    • /
    • 2009
  • In Korea, telephone surveys have been used in election forecasting since 1992. In some elections, predictions were excellent, but in some elections, the predictions based on telephone surveys were not good. So, exit polls have been used along with the telephone surveys in predicting election outcomes since 2001 by the major broadcasting networks. Though telephone surveys, in general, have been less accurate than exit polls in election forecasting from 2000 to 2003, they were more accurate in the 2004 General Election than the exit polls. All predictions on the winners by the telephone surveys turned out to be accurate. But such success has not persisted. In the 2008 General Election, the telephone surveys was less accurate than the exit polls and actually its accuracy fell clown to the level of the 2000 General Election. This paper tried to find out. the factors responsible for the fluctuation of the accuracy of telephone polls.

  • PDF

A Post-Examination of Forecasting Surveys for the 16th General Election (제 16대 국회의원 선거의 예측조사에 대한 사후적 검증)

  • 홍내리;허명희
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
    • /
    • 2001.04a
    • /
    • pp.1.2-35
    • /
    • 2001
  • On the election day of the 16th Korea national Assembly, nationwide TV stations such as KBS, SBS and MBC broadcasted election forecasting based on telephone surveys and exit polls. The result turned out to be significantly wrong, undermining general audience's confidence on the 'ientific'surveys. The purpose of this study consists of the followings. I) What form of telephone surveys and exit polls were adopted by survey institutions in real field\ulcorner ii) What were the problems\ulcorner iii) What can we do to make it straight\ulcorner Major findings of the study include the ignorance of call-back rules in telephone survey and the inadequate number of sampled election posts to make satisfactory forecasting. It is pointed out that it is necessary to amend election laws related to election opinion polls to make a substantial progress.

A Post-Examination of Forecasting Surveys for the 16th General Election (제 16대 국회의원 선거의 예측조사에 대한 사후적 검증)

  • 홍내리;허명희
    • Survey Research
    • /
    • v.2 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-35
    • /
    • 2001
  • On the election day of the 16th Korea National Assembly. nationwide TV stations such as KBS. SBS and MBC broadcasted election forecasting based on telephone surveys and exit polls. The result turned out to be significantly wrong. undermining general audience's confidence on the “scientific” surveys. The purpose of this study consists of the followings. i) What form of telephone surveys and exit polls were adopted by survey institutions in real field\ulcorner ii) What were the problems\ulcorner iii) What can we do to make it straight\ulcorner Major findings of the study include the ignorance of call-back rules in telephone survey and the inadequate number of sampled election posts to make satisfactory forecasting. It is pointed out that it is necessary to amend election laws related to election opinion polls to make a substantial progress.

  • PDF

Estimating the Number of Seats in Local Constituencies of a Party Using Exit Polls in the General Election (총선 출구조사에서 정당별 지역구 의석수 추정)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.59-70
    • /
    • 2013
  • Exit polls failed to estimate the number of seats in the National Assembly for each party in the 2012 General Election, even though they estimated it in interval. Three major broadcast companies jointly carried out exit polls, but made projections independently. The exact methods of projection were not publicly released. This paper proposes confidence intervals for the number of seats in local constituencies using the results of exit polls, and conducted simulation studies to assess the performance of the cofidence intervals. The proposed confidence intervals were applied to the real data of 2012 General Election.

Analysis of public opinion in the 20th presidential election using YouTube data (유튜브 데이터를 활용한 20대 대선 여론분석)

  • Kang, Eunkyung;Yang, Seonuk;Kwon, Jiyoon;Yang, Sung-Byung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.161-183
    • /
    • 2022
  • Opinion polls have become a powerful means for election campaigns and one of the most important subjects in the media in that they predict the actual election results and influence people's voting behavior. However, the more active the polls, the more often they fail to properly reflect the voters' minds in measuring the effectiveness of election campaigns, such as repeatedly conducting polls on the likelihood of winning or support rather than verifying the pledges and policies of candidates. Even if the poor predictions of the election results of the polls have undermined the authority of the press, people cannot easily let go of their interest in polls because there is no clear alternative to answer the instinctive question of which candidate will ultimately win. In this regard, we attempt to retrospectively grasp public opinion on the 20th presidential election by applying the 'YouTube Analysis' function of Sometrend, which provides an environment for discovering insights through online big data. Through this study, it is confirmed that a result close to the actual public opinion (or opinion poll results) can be easily derived with simple YouTube data results, and a high-performance public opinion prediction model can be built.

Bias caused by nonresponses and suggestion for increasing response rate in the telephone survey on election (전화 선거여론조사에서 무응답률 증가로 인한 편의와 응답률 제고 방안)

  • Heo, Sunyeong;Yi, Sucheol
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.315-325
    • /
    • 2016
  • Thanks to the advantages of low cost and quick results, public opinion polls on election in Korea have been generally conducted by telephone survey, even though it has critical disadvantage of low response rate. In public opinion polls on election in Korea, the general method to handle nonresponses is adjusting the survey weight to estimate parameters. This study first drives mathematical expression of estimator and its bias with variance estimators with/without nonresponses in election polls in Korea. We also investigates the nonresponse rate of telephone survey on 2012 Korea presidential election. The average response rate was barely about 14.4%. In addition, we conducted a survey in April 2014 on the respondents's attitude toward telephone surveys. In the survey, the first reason for which respondents do not answer on public opinion polls on election was "feel bothered". And the aged 20s group, the most low response group, also gave the same answer. We here suggest that survey researchers motivate survey respondents, specially younger group, to participate surveys and find methods boosting response rate such as giving incentive.

Measuring the Third-Person Effects of Public Opinion Polls: Focusing On Online Polls (여론조사보도에 대한 제3자효과 검증: 온라인 여론조사를 주목하며)

  • Kim, Sung-Tae;Willnat, Las;Weaver, David
    • Korean journal of communication and information
    • /
    • v.32
    • /
    • pp.49-73
    • /
    • 2006
  • During the past decades, public opinion polls have become an ubiquitous tool for probing the complexity of people's beliefs and attitudes on a wide variety of issues. Especially since the late 1970s, the use of polls by news organizations has increased dramatically. Along with the proliferation of traditional polls, in the past few years pollsters and news organizations have come to recognize the advantages of online polls. Increasingly there has been more effort to take the pulse of the public through the Internet. With the Internet's rapid growth during the past years, advocates of online polling often emphasize the relative advantages over traditional polls. Researchers from Harris Black International Ltd., for example, argue that "Internet polling is less expensive and faster and offers higher response rates than telephone surveys." Moreover, since many of the newer online polls draw respondents from large databases of registered Internet users, results of online polls have become more balanced. A series of Harris Black online polls conducted during the 1998 gubernatorial and senatorial elections, for example, has accurately projected the winners in 21 of the 22 races it tracked. Many researchers, however, severely criticize online polls for not being representative of the larger population. Despite the often enormous number of participants, Internet users who participate in online polls tend to be younger, better educated and more affluent than the general population. As Traugott pointed out, the people polled in Internet surveys are a "self selected" group, and thus "have volunteered to be part of the test sample, which could mean they are more comfortable with technology, more informed about news and events ... than Americans who aren't online." The fact that users of online polls are self selected and demographically very different from Americans who have no access to the Internet is likely to influence the estimates of what the majority of people think about social or political issues. One of the goals of this study is therefore to analyze whether people perceive traditional and online public opinion polls differently. While most people might not differentiate sufficiently between traditional random sample polls and non representative online polls, some audiences might perceive online polls as more useful and representative. Since most online polls allow some form of direct participation, mostly in the form of an instant vote by mouse click, and often present their findings based on huge numbers of respondents, consumers of these polls might perceive them as more accurate, representative or reliable than traditional random sample polls. If that is true, perceptions of public opinion in society could be significantly distorted for those who rely on or participate in online polls. In addition to investigating how people perceive random sample and online polls, this study focuses on the perceived impact of public opinion polls. Similar to these past studies, which focused on how public opinion polls can influence the perception of mass opinion, this study will analyze how people perceive the effects of polls on themselves and other people. This interest springs from prior studies of the "third person effect," which have found that people often tend to perceive that persuasive communications exert a stronger influence on others than on themselves. While most studies concerned with the political effects of public opinion polls show that exit polls and early reporting of election returns have only weak or no effects on the outcome of election campaigns, some empirical findings suggest that exposure to polls can move people's opinions both toward and away from perceived majority opinion. Thus, if people indeed believe that polls influence others more than themselves, perceptions of majority opinion could be significantly altered because people might anticipate that others will react more strongly to poll results.

  • PDF

Estimation of the Percent of the Vote by Adjustment of Voter Turnout in Election Polls (선거여론조사에서 투표율 반영을 통한 득표율 추정)

  • Kim, Jeonghoon;Han, Sang-Tae;Kang, Hyuncheol
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
    • /
    • v.20 no.6
    • /
    • pp.2873-2881
    • /
    • 2018
  • It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.

An Overview of Exit Polls for the 2006 Local Elections (2006년 지방선거 출구조사 현황 및 예측오차)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyeon;Kim, Young-Won
    • Survey Research
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.55-79
    • /
    • 2007
  • This article attempts to provide an overview of the exit polls for the 2006 local elections in Korea. The sampling method, sampling error, non-response rate, and prediction error of the exit polls are reviewed. Also, we explore the fact that the propensity to vote varies according to age and gender of voters. In terms of age and gender, the representativeness of the sample is investigated by comparing to the data released by the National Election Commission. Through this empirical research, we show that the exit poll samples are unbalanced in terms of age and this unbalance may be one of the causes of bias occurred in the prediction of the 2006 local election results. The design effects of the sample design implemented for the exit polls are also examined.

  • PDF