• Title/Summary/Keyword: effective population size

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Analysis of Pedigree Structure and Inbreeding Coefficient for Performance Tested Holstein Cows in Korea (우리나라 Holstein 능력검정 젖소 집단의 혈통구조 및 근교계수 분석)

  • Won, J.I.;Dang, C.G.;Lim, H.J.;Jung, Y.S.;Im, S.K.;Lee, J.K.;Kim, J.B.;Cho, M.R.;Min, H.L.;Yoon, H.B.
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2016
  • The study was aimed to analyze pedigree structure and inbreeding coefficients for performance tested Holstein cows in Korea. A total of 400,029 Holstein cows data which born between 2002 and 2012 were obtained from Dairy Cattle Improvement Center of National Agricultural Cooperative Federation(NACF). Their related pedigrees, as obtained from Korean Animal Improvement Association(KAIA), consisted of 509,740 animals. Pedigree depth of the cows were traced back to 3 generations earlier. The percentage of cows with fully identified ancestors in various provinces of Korea were 55.18%(Gyeonggi-do), 23.49%(Gangwon-do), 47.83%(Chungcheongnam-do), 53.62%(Chungcheongbuk-do), 56.38%(Gyeongsangbuk-do), 51.35% (Gyeongsangnam-do), 26.58%(Jeollanam-do), 49.41%(Jeollabuk-do), and 56.90%(Jeju-do), whereas, it was about 63.20% as a whole in Korea. The average inbreeding coefficients showed increment across the consecutive years of birth such as, 0.43(2002), 0.44(2003), 0.58(2004), 0.64(2005), 0.78(2006), 0.93(2007), 1.08(2008), 1.23(2009), 1.46(2010), 1.77(2011), and 2.03 (2012). However, this coefficient was 0.93 in overall Korean population. An average generation interval for sire to daughter genetic path was 8.15 years; which was about 4.20 years considering dam to daughter genetic path. The estimated effective population sizes (Ne) were 56.5, 51.3, and 32.2 animals born in 2004, 2009, and 2012, respectively. These results indicated that an increased rate of inbreeding has led to a significant reduction in the Ne over the decade.

A Study on Sample Allocation for Stratified Sampling (층화표본에서의 표본 배분에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Ingue;Park, Mingue
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1047-1061
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    • 2015
  • Stratified random sampling is a powerful sampling strategy to reduce variance of the estimators by incorporating useful auxiliary information to stratify the population. Sample allocation is the one of the important decisions in selecting a stratified random sample. There are two common methods, the proportional allocation and Neyman allocation if we could assume data collection cost for different observation units equal. Theoretically, Neyman allocation considering the size and standard deviation of each stratum, is known to be more effective than proportional allocation which incorporates only stratum size information. However, if the information on the standard deviation is inaccurate, the performance of Neyman allocation is in doubt. It has been pointed out that Neyman allocation is not suitable for multi-purpose sample survey that requires the estimation of several characteristics. In addition to sampling error, non-response error is another factor to evaluate sampling strategy that affects the statistical precision of the estimator. We propose new sample allocation methods using the available information about stratum response rates at the designing stage to improve stratified random sampling. The proposed methods are efficient when response rates differ considerably among strata. In particular, the method using population sizes and response rates improves the Neyman allocation in multi-purpose sample survey.

A Study on the Daily Probability of Rainfall in the Taegu Area according to the Theory of Probaility (대구지방(大邱地方)의 확률일우량(確率日雨量)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Young Ki;Na, In Yup
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.225-234
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    • 1971
  • With the advance of civilization and steadily increasing population rivalry and competition for the use of the sewage, culverts, farm irrigation and control of various types of flood discharge have developed and will be come more and more keen in the future. The author has tried to calculated a formula that could adjust these conflicts and bring about proper solutions for many problems arising in connection with these conditions. The purpose of this study is to find out effective sewage, culvert, drainage, farm irrigation, flood discharge and other engineering needs in the Taegu area. If demands expand further a new formula will have to be calculated. For the above the author estimated methods of control for the probable expected rainfall using a formula based on data collected over a long period of time. The formula is determined on the basis of the maximum daily rainfall data from 1921 to 1971 in the Taegu area. 1. Iwai methods shows a highly significant correlation among the variations of Hazen, Thomas, Gumbel methods and logarithmic normal distribution. 2. This study obtained the following major formula: ${\log}(x-2.6)=0.241{\xi}+1.92049{\cdots}{\cdots}$(I.M) by using the relation $F(x)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{\pi}}{\int}_{-{\infty}}^{\xi}e^{-{\xi}^2}d{\xi}$. ${\xi}=a{\log}_{10}\(\frac{x+b}{x_0+b}\)$ ($-b<x<{\infty}$) ${\log}(x_0+b)=2.0448$ $\frac{1}{a}=\sqrt{\frac{2N}{N-1}}S_x=0.1954$. $b=\frac{1}{m}\sum\limits_{i=1}^{m}b_s=-2.6$ $S_x=\sqrt{\frac{1}{N}\sum\limits^N_{i=1}\{{\log}(x_i+b)\}^2-\{{\log}(x_0+b)\}^2}=0.169$ This formule may be advantageously applicable to the estimation of flood discharge, sewage, culverts and drainage in the Taegu area. Notation for general terms has been denoted by the following. Other notations for general terms was used as needed. $W_{(x)}$ : probability of occurranec, $W_{(x)}=\int_{x}^{\infty}f_{(n)}dx$ $S_{(x)}$ : probability of noneoccurrance. $S_{(x)}=\int_{-\infty}^{x}f_(x)dx=1-W_{(x)}$ T : Return period $T=\frac{1}{nW_{(x)}}$ or $T=\frac{1}{nS_{(x)}}$ $W_n$ : Hazen plot $W_n=\frac{2n-1}{2N}$ $F_n=1-W_x=1-\(\frac{2n-1}{2N}\)$ n : Number of observation (annual maximum series) P : Probability $P=\frac{N!}{{t!}(N-t)}F{_i}^{N-t}(1-F_i)^t$ $F_n$ : Thomas plot $F_n=\(1-\frac{n}{N+1}\)$ N : Total number of sample size $X_l$ : $X_s$ : maximum, minumum value of total number of sample size.

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Mortality of Stroke Patients Based on Charlson Comorbidity Index (뇌졸중 환자의 Charlson Comorbidity Index에 따른 사망률 분석)

  • Kim, Ka-Hee;Lim, Ji-Hye
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.22-32
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    • 2016
  • As the number of aged population rapidly goes up, the cases of stroke and the related medical expenses continuously increase. The purpose of this study is to investigate the mortality of stroke patients based on CCI(Charlson Comorbidity Index) by utilizing the Korea National Hospital Discharge Injury Survey, analyzing the factors associated with the mortality of stroke patients. We analyzed 21,494 cases which are classified as the death of strokes aged over 20 years by using the Korea National Hospital Discharge Injury Survey between the year 2005 and 2010. In order to find out the mortality based on CCI and status of comorbidity, we used the technical statistics. We performed a logistic regression analysis to examine the reasons for the mortality of the strokes. We found that the independent variables for the influence of the mortality of strokes include age, type of insurance, residence urban size, size of hospital beds, the location of hospital, admission route, physical therapy, brain surgery, type of stroke, and CCI. This indicates that the effective monitoring on the age, types of stroke, comorbidity is needed. In addition to this, more medical support toward medicaid patients are needed, too. We believe that these results will be used positively for the evaluation of the stroke patients, providing the basic materials for the further research on the establishment of the health-related policy.

A Study on the Size, Composition, and Characteristics of Poor Elders Excluded from the Public Assistance (공공부조 수급에서 제외된 빈곤노인의 현황과 특성)

  • Choi, Hee-Kyung
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.237-259
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    • 2004
  • The public assistance scheme plays more important role in income maintenance for poor elders than the public pension does due to insufficient coverage of the public pension resulted from late introduction of it in Korea. However, only limited numbers of poor elders are financially protected by the public assistance contrary to the general perception that the elderly population most benefits from public aids. Based on data set of 2000 from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, this study analysed the size, composition and characteristics of poor elders excluded from the public assistance, and determinants of the elderly's participation in it. Findings of the study can be summarized as follows: (1) More than half of poor elders are excluded from the public assistance although their economic status is similar with that of recipients, which may cause income reversal between recipients and non-recipients. (2) It was identified that non-recipient poor elders especially those with same income level of recipients of the National Livelihood Guarantees(NLG) are actually in desperate need of public aids considering their serious financial conditions. (3) Participation in public assistance among the elderly is more affected by socio-demographic factors that reflect family conditions than by economic factors, which is mostly caused by the strict eligibility criteria of the public assistance that reinforces family duty of financial support for elderly relatives in Korea. Policy implications for more effective income security for poor elders include revising inappropriate eligibility criteria of the NLG concerning family obligations, expanding the coverage of the old age allowance for poor elders to near-poor elders, and providing work opportunities to non-recipient poor elders to supplement their income deficit.

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Studies on Distribution and Ecology of Clithon retropictus (Martens, 1879) in South Korea (한국산 기수갈고둥의 분포 및 생태에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Seung Pil;Hwang, In Chul;Kwon, Soon Jik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.317-326
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    • 2021
  • The present study was carried out with a view to understand the distribution and ecology of Clihton retropictus (Martens, 1879), a class II endangered wildlife designated and protected by the Ministry of Environment, Republic of Korea, and to suggest the effective conservation and management measures for this species and its habit. First, the distribution of Clihton retropictus was investigated nationwide, and environmental factors such as salinity and substratum were analyzed in consideration of the ecological characteristics of this species. In addition, the individual size, density, and movement of Clihton retropictus per each district surveyed were analyzed. Due to its nature of inhabiting in the brackish water zone, the analysis showed that the salinity of this species was 0.7 ~ 16.6‰ at low tide and 1.0 ~ 17.3% at high tide. It was learned from the analysis of substratum that its composition in each river under investigation was slightly different, but most of substratum had a higher composition ratio than gravel (pebble, 16 ~ 64 mm). On the other hand, the size of each individual was checked by measuring the length of its diameter, and there was almost no change in the individual when the inhabited range of Clihton retropictus was short. However, there was tendency that the longer the habitat range, the bigger the individual size. From surveying the population density by season, it was made clear that, during the summer (July to August) and fall (September to October), the density was relatively higher while the number of individuals decreased significantly during winter (November to December) when the water temperature was lowered. In an effort to effectively establish conservation and management measures, the moving distance was measured, and it became known that, during the surveys in summer and fall when the individuals were active, the individuals moved in more distances than during the winter survey. The results of this study are expected to be utilized as basic data for establishing effective management plans such as creation of habitats for Clihton retropictus, its migration projects and selection of migration destinations which get unavoidable due to development projects.

Novel quantitative trait loci for the strong-culm and high-yield related traits in rice detected from the F2 population between the super thick-culm and super grain-bearing line 'LTAT-29' and the high-yielding variety 'Takanari'

  • Nomura, Tomohiro;Yamamoto, Toshio;Ueda, Tadamasa;Yonemaru, Junichi;Abe, Akira;Adachi, Shunsuke;Hirasawa, Tadashi;Ookawa, Taiichiro
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2017.06a
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    • pp.95-95
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    • 2017
  • Lodging is a serious issue in rice production, because it drastically decreases the biomass production and grain yield. Since the Green Revolution, the lodging resistance has been increased by lowering the moment of above-ground parts due to the short culm by the semi-dwarf gene sd1. However, it has been pointed out that sd1 alone has suppressive effects for biomass production and yield. To increase rice yield, the long-culm and large panicle type varieties with a superior lodging resistance need to be developed. To improve the lodging resistance and yield of these type varieties, it would be effective to identify novel alleles for these traits underlying natural variations in rice and to pyramid these alleles to a single rice variety. In order to perform this strategy, we have developed new rice lines derived from crosses among varieties with superior alleles. At first, TULT-gh-5-5 was selected from a cross between strong culm and high biomass variety Leaf Star and high-yielding variety Takanari, and TUAT-32HB was selected from a cross between high-yielding variety Akenohoshi and Takanari. Then, we developed the super thick-culm and super grain-bearing line, LTAT-29 derived from a cross between TULT-gh-5-5 and TUAT-32HB. In the current study, to identify the QTLs and genes relating to the strong culm and the high yield of LTAT-29, we performed QTL analysis using SNPs markers with $F_2$ population derived from a cross between LTAT-29 and Takanari. LTAT-29 has never lodged throughout the growth period despite it had long culms and heavy panicles. LTAT-29 had a larger outer diameter of the culm and twice the size of the section modulus than Takanari. As a result, the bending moment at breaking of LTAT-29 was significantly larger than that of Takanari. Brown rice yield of LTAT-29 was $9.2t\;ha^{-1}$ about 10% higher than that of Takanari due to the larger number of spikelets per panicle. LTAT-29 had a greater number of secondary branches per panicle. In the $F_2$ population between LTAT-29 and Takanari, we found continuous frequency distributions in the section modulus and the spikelet number per panicle. Two QTLs increased the section modulus by the alleles of LTAT-29 were detected on Chr.1L and Chr.2L. One QTL increased the spikelet number per panicle of Takanari by the allele of LTAT-29 was detected on Chr.1L, and two QTLs increased the number of secondary branches per panicle by the alleles of LTAT-29 were detected on Chr.1L and Chr.4L. It was found that the alleles of these QTLs were the japonica type originated from Leaf Star or Akenohoshi. The novel QTLs for the traits related to super thick-culm and super grain-bearing and their combinations could be utilized for improving the lodging resistance and yield in rice varieties.

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Field Studios of In-situ Aerobic Cometabolism of Chlorinated Aliphatic Hydrocarbons

  • Semprini, Lewts
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
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    • 2004.04a
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    • pp.3-4
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    • 2004
  • Results will be presented from two field studies that evaluated the in-situ treatment of chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons (CAHs) using aerobic cometabolism. In the first study, a cometabolic air sparging (CAS) demonstration was conducted at McClellan Air Force Base (AFB), California, to treat chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons (CAHs) in groundwater using propane as the cometabolic substrate. A propane-biostimulated zone was sparged with a propane/air mixture and a control zone was sparged with air alone. Propane-utilizers were effectively stimulated in the saturated zone with repeated intermediate sparging of propane and air. Propane delivery, however, was not uniform, with propane mainly observed in down-gradient observation wells. Trichloroethene (TCE), cis-1, 2-dichloroethene (c-DCE), and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration levels decreased in proportion with propane usage, with c-DCE decreasing more rapidly than TCE. The more rapid removal of c-DCE indicated biotransformation and not just physical removal by stripping. Propane utilization rates and rates of CAH removal slowed after three to four months of repeated propane additions, which coincided with tile depletion of nitrogen (as nitrate). Ammonia was then added to the propane/air mixture as a nitrogen source. After a six-month period between propane additions, rapid propane-utilization was observed. Nitrate was present due to groundwater flow into the treatment zone and/or by the oxidation of tile previously injected ammonia. In the propane-stimulated zone, c-DCE concentrations decreased below tile detection limit (1 $\mu$g/L), and TCE concentrations ranged from less than 5 $\mu$g/L to 30 $\mu$g/L, representing removals of 90 to 97%. In the air sparged control zone, TCE was removed at only two monitoring locations nearest the sparge-well, to concentrations of 15 $\mu$g/L and 60 $\mu$g/L. The responses indicate that stripping as well as biological treatment were responsible for the removal of contaminants in the biostimulated zone, with biostimulation enhancing removals to lower contaminant levels. As part of that study bacterial population shifts that occurred in the groundwater during CAS and air sparging control were evaluated by length heterogeneity polymerase chain reaction (LH-PCR) fragment analysis. The results showed that an organism(5) that had a fragment size of 385 base pairs (385 bp) was positively correlated with propane removal rates. The 385 bp fragment consisted of up to 83% of the total fragments in the analysis when propane removal rates peaked. A 16S rRNA clone library made from the bacteria sampled in propane sparged groundwater included clones of a TM7 division bacterium that had a 385bp LH-PCR fragment; no other bacterial species with this fragment size were detected. Both propane removal rates and the 385bp LH-PCR fragment decreased as nitrate levels in the groundwater decreased. In the second study the potential for bioaugmentation of a butane culture was evaluated in a series of field tests conducted at the Moffett Field Air Station in California. A butane-utilizing mixed culture that was effective in transforming 1, 1-dichloroethene (1, 1-DCE), 1, 1, 1-trichloroethane (1, 1, 1-TCA), and 1, 1-dichloroethane (1, 1-DCA) was added to the saturated zone at the test site. This mixture of contaminants was evaluated since they are often present as together as the result of 1, 1, 1-TCA contamination and the abiotic and biotic transformation of 1, 1, 1-TCA to 1, 1-DCE and 1, 1-DCA. Model simulations were performed prior to the initiation of the field study. The simulations were performed with a transport code that included processes for in-situ cometabolism, including microbial growth and decay, substrate and oxygen utilization, and the cometabolism of dual contaminants (1, 1-DCE and 1, 1, 1-TCA). Based on the results of detailed kinetic studies with the culture, cometabolic transformation kinetics were incorporated that butane mixed-inhibition on 1, 1-DCE and 1, 1, 1-TCA transformation, and competitive inhibition of 1, 1-DCE and 1, 1, 1-TCA on butane utilization. A transformation capacity term was also included in the model formation that results in cell loss due to contaminant transformation. Parameters for the model simulations were determined independently in kinetic studies with the butane-utilizing culture and through batch microcosm tests with groundwater and aquifer solids from the field test zone with the butane-utilizing culture added. In microcosm tests, the model simulated well the repetitive utilization of butane and cometabolism of 1.1, 1-TCA and 1, 1-DCE, as well as the transformation of 1, 1-DCE as it was repeatedly transformed at increased aqueous concentrations. Model simulations were then performed under the transport conditions of the field test to explore the effects of the bioaugmentation dose and the response of the system to tile biostimulation with alternating pulses of dissolved butane and oxygen in the presence of 1, 1-DCE (50 $\mu$g/L) and 1, 1, 1-TCA (250 $\mu$g/L). A uniform aquifer bioaugmentation dose of 0.5 mg/L of cells resulted in complete utilization of the butane 2-meters downgradient of the injection well within 200-hrs of bioaugmentation and butane addition. 1, 1-DCE was much more rapidly transformed than 1, 1, 1-TCA, and efficient 1, 1, 1-TCA removal occurred only after 1, 1-DCE and butane were decreased in concentration. The simulations demonstrated the strong inhibition of both 1, 1-DCE and butane on 1, 1, 1-TCA transformation, and the more rapid 1, 1-DCE transformation kinetics. Results of tile field demonstration indicated that bioaugmentation was successfully implemented; however it was difficult to maintain effective treatment for long periods of time (50 days or more). The demonstration showed that the bioaugmented experimental leg effectively transformed 1, 1-DCE and 1, 1-DCA, and was somewhat effective in transforming 1, 1, 1-TCA. The indigenous experimental leg treated in the same way as the bioaugmented leg was much less effective in treating the contaminant mixture. The best operating performance was achieved in the bioaugmented leg with about over 90%, 80%, 60 % removal for 1, 1-DCE, 1, 1-DCA, and 1, 1, 1-TCA, respectively. Molecular methods were used to track and enumerate the bioaugmented culture in the test zone. Real Time PCR analysis was used to on enumerate the bioaugmented culture. The results show higher numbers of the bioaugmented microorganisms were present in the treatment zone groundwater when the contaminants were being effective transformed. A decrease in these numbers was associated with a reduction in treatment performance. The results of the field tests indicated that although bioaugmentation can be successfully implemented, competition for the growth substrate (butane) by the indigenous microorganisms likely lead to the decrease in long-term performance.

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Survival Rate on the Small Cyprinidae by PIT Tagging Application (소형 잉어과 어류의 PIT tag 적용을 위한 생존율 평가)

  • Jang, Min-Ho;Yoon, Ju-Duk;Do, Yuno;Joo, Gea-Jae
    • Korean Journal of Ichthyology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.371-377
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    • 2007
  • The passive integrated transponder (PIT) telemetry is a useful method for investigating fish population dynamics, community structure and migration. It can be applied for small fishes (TL<100 mm) because of its tiny size and light weight. The survival rate of PIT tag was investigated on 4 small size cyprindae fish species, Carassius gibelio langsdorfi (n=34, standard length; $91.9{\pm}0.9mm$, body weight; $21.2{\pm}0.9g$), Hypophthalmichthys molitrix (n=16, SL; $75.1{\pm}0.9mm$, BW; $6.0{\pm}0.2g$), Pseudorasbora parva (n=30, SL; $51.4{\pm}1.1mm$, BW; $2.7{\pm}0.2g$) and Phoxinus phoxinus (n=37, SL; $70.6{\pm}1.4mm$, BW; $8.2{\pm}0.5g$) under age 1 for applicability and effectiveness. We used three type tags including a small (length 11.0 mm, diameter 2.1 mm, weight 0.088 g), middle (20 mm, 3.5 mm, 0.102 g), large (30 mm, 3.5 mm, 0.298 g) size. After 30 days of tag insertion, survival rate of 117 individuals were 58.1% (large tag, 50.0%; middle tag, 57.5%; small tag, 61.4%). Survival rates varied between three types of tags because the abdominal cavity of each individual was different size. The death was due to surgical damage. If we apply tagging systems on field research of the Korean freshwater fish, the PIT tag will be effective method for analyzing fish ecology.

Problems in the Korean National Family Planning Program (한국가족계획사업(韓國家族計劃事業)의 문제점(問題點))

  • Hong, Jong-Kwan
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 1975
  • The success of the family planning program in Korea is reflected in the decrease in the growth rate from 3.0% in 1962 to 2.0% in 1971, and in the decrease in the fertility rate from 43/1,000 in 1960 to 29/1,000 in 1970. However, it would be erroneous to attribute these reductions entirely to the family planning program. Other socio-economic factors, such as the increasing age at marriage and the increasing use of induced abortions, definitely had an impact on the lowered growth and fertility rate. Despite the relative success of the program to data in meeting its goals, there is no room for complacency. Meeting the goal of a further reduction in the population growth rate to 1.3% by 1981 is a much more difficult task than any one faced in the past. Not only must fertility be lowered further, but the size of the target population itself will expand tremendously in the late seventies; due to the post-war baby boom of the 1950's reaching reproductive ages. Furthermore, it is doubtful that the age at marriage will continue to rise as in the past or that the incidence of induced abortion will continue to increase. Consequently, future reductions in fertility will be more dependent on the performance of the national family planning program, with less assistance from these non-program factors. This paper will describe various approaches to help to the solution of these current problems. 1. PRACTICE RATE IN FAMILY PLANNING In 1973, the attitude (approval) and knowledge rates were quite high; 94% and 98% respectively. But a large gap exists between that and the actual practice rate, which is only 3695. Two factors must be considered in attempting to close the KAP-gap. The first is to change social norms, which still favor a larger family, increasing the practice rate cannot be done very quickly. The second point to consider is that the family planning program has not yet reached all the eligible women. A 1973 study determineded that a large portion, 3096 in fact, of all eligible women do not want more children, but are not practicing family planning. Thus, future efforts to help close the KAP-gap must focus attention and services on this important large group of potential acceptors. 2. CONTINUATION RATES Dissatisfaction with the loop and pill has resulted in high discontinuation rates. For example, a 1973 survey revealed that within the first six months initial loop acceptance. nearly 50% were dropouts, and that within the first four months of inital pill acceptance. nearly 50% were dropouts. These discontinuation rates have risen over the past few years. The high rate of discontinuance obviously decreases the contraceptive effectiveness. and has resulted in many unwanted births which is directly related to the increase of induced abortions. In the future, the family planning program must emphasize the improved quality of initial and follow-up services. rather than more quantity, in order to insure higher continuation rates and thus more effective contraceptive protection. 3. INDUCED ABORTION As noted earlier. the use of induced abortions has been increase yearly. For example, in 1960, the average number of abortions was 0.6 abortions per women in the 15-44 age range. By 1970. that had increased to 2 abortions per women. In 1966. 13% of all women between 15-44 had experienced at least one abortion. By 1971, that figure jumped to 28%. In 1973 alone, the total number of abortions was 400,000. Besides the ever incre.sing number of induced abortions, another change has that those who use abortions have shifted since 1965 to include- not. only the middle class, but also rural and low-income women. In the future. in response to the demand for abortion services among rural and low-income w~men, the government must provide and support abortion services for these women as a part of the national family planning program. 4. TARGET SYSTIi:M Since 1962, the nationwide target system has been used to set a target for each method, and the target number of acceptors is then apportioned out to various sub-areas according to the number of eligible couples in each area. Because these targets are set without consideration for demographic factors, particular tastes, prejudices, and previous patterns of acceptance in the area, a high discontinuation rate for all methods and a high wastage rate for the oral pill and condom results. In the future. to alleviate these problems of the methodbased target system. an alternative. such as the weighted-credit system, should be adopted on a nation wide basis. In this system. each contraceptive method is. assigned a specific number of points based upon the couple-years of protection (CYP) provided by the method. and no specific targets for each method are given. 5. INCREASE OF STERILIZA.TION TARGET Two special projects. the hospital-based family planning program and the armed forces program, has greatly contributed to the increasing acceptance in female and male sterilization respectively. From January-September 1974, 28,773 sterilizations were performed. During the same time in 1975, 46,894 were performed; a 63% increase. If this trend continues, by the end of 1975. approximately 70,000 sterilizations will have been performed. Sterilization is a much better method than both the loop and pill, in terms of more effective contraceptive protection and the almost zero dropout rate. In the future, the. family planning program should continue to stress the special programs which make more sterilizations possible. In particular, it should seek to add the laparoscope techniques to facilitate female sterilization acceptance rates. 6. INCREASE NUMBER OF PRIVATE ACCEPTORS Among the current family planning users, approximately 1/3 are in the private sector and thus do not- require government subsidy. The number of private acceptors increases with increasing urbanization and economic growth. To speed this process, the government initiated the special hospital based family planning program which is utilized mostly by the private sector. However, in the future, to further hasten the increase of private acceptors, the government should encourage doctors in private practice to provide family planning services, and provide the contraceptive supplies. This way, those do utilize the private medical system will also be able to receive family planning services and pay for it. Another means of increasing the number of private acceptors, IS to greatly expand the commercial outlets for pills and condoms beyond the existing service points of drugstores, hospitals, and health centers. 7. IE&C PROGRAM The current preferred family size is nearly twice as high as needed to achieve a stable poplation. Also, a strong boy preference hinders a small family size as nearly all couples fuel they must have at least one or more sons. The IE&C program must, in the future, strive to emphasize the values of the small family and equality of the sexes. A second problem for the IE&C program to work. with in the: future is the large group of people who approves family planning, want no more children, but do not practice. The IE&C program must work to motivate these people to accept family planning And finally, for those who already practice, an IE&C program in the future must stress continuation of use. The IE&C campaign, to insure highest effectiveness, should be based on a detailed factor analysis of contraceptive discontinuance. In conclusion, Korea faces a serious unfavorable sociodemographic situation- in the future unless the population growth rate can be curtailed. And in the future, the decrease in fertility will depend solely on the family planning program, as the effect of other socio-economic factors has already been maximumally felt. A second serious factor to consider is the increasing number of eligible women due to the 1950's baby boom. Thus, to meet these challenges, the program target must be increased and the program must improve the effectiveness of its current activities and develop new programs.

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