• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic uncertainty

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Theoretical and Empirical Issues in Conducting an Economic Analysis of Damage in Price-Fixing Litigation: Application to a Transportation Fuel Market (담합관련 손해배상 소송의 경제분석에서 고려해야 할 이론 및 실증적 쟁점: 수송용 연료시장에의 적용)

  • Moon, Choon-Geol
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.187-224
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    • 2014
  • We present key issues to consider in estimating damages from price-fixing cases and then apply the procedure addressing those issues to a transportation fuel market. Among the five methods of overcharge calculation, the regression analysis incorporating the yardstick method is the best. If the price equation relates the domestic price to the foreign price and the exchange rate as in the transportation fuel market, the functional form satisfying both logical consistency and modeling flexibility is the log-log functional form. If the data under analysis is of time series in nature, then the ARDL model should be the base model for each market and the regression analysis incorporating the yardstick method combines these ARDL equations to account for inter-market correlation and arrange constant terms and collusion-period dummies across component equations appropriately so as to identify the overcharge parameter. We propose a two-step test for the benchmarked market: (a) conduct market-by-market Spearman or Kendall test for randomness of the individual market price series first and (b) then conduct across-market Friedman test for homogeneity of the market price series. Statistical significance is the minimal requirement to establish the alleged proposition in the world of uncertainty. Between the sensitivity analysis and the model selection process for the best fitting model, the latter is far more important in the economic analysis of damage in price-fixing litigation. We applied our framework to a transportation fuel market and could not reject the null hypothesis of no overcharge.

The Influence of Market in Agricultural Spatial Organization (농업공간조직에서 시장의 영향)

  • Lee, Sang-Yool
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.151-162
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    • 1997
  • Although modern versions of the traditional Von $Th{\ddot{u}}nen$ theory have contributed to a description of spatial organization in agriculture, they did not incorporate the market mechanism as an integral part of location theory. This deficiency has been indicated and new mathematical structure has been proposed elsewhere by the author. The closed model, which simultaneously considered a basic principle of supply and demand, exposed a computational complexity. Based on the problem, this study attempts to extend market mechanism in order to consider the influence of city (market) size in agricultural location theory. To theoretically explore the economic relationship in a location theory, this study simplifies agricultural activity as just two activities in one-dimensional spatial economy. The problem has been solved by equating total supply and demand of agricultural products, and then by determining each agricultural price from the relationship. All of the mathematical problems have been arranged in matrix form. First, the traditional model and closed model have been compared by quantitative comparative statics which provides the sensitivity test for each model. The results have shown that the traditional model shows a relatively excessive change in land use, besides the deficiency of a constant agricultural price. Second, the effects of the size of market town and its population increase were examined, using the closed model. In this case, the price of agricultural product is increased, and the land use is extended outward. This proves that locational rent is related to the expansion of land use. Third, environmental uncertainty was associated with the closed model, in order to further consider the difference of farmers attitude in strategic perspective. In this study, two extreme attitudes, which reflects the maximum average expected returns and the maximum guaranteed returns, were examined in their land use and their effects on the prices of agricultural products. It was shown that the two farmers attitudes can be interconnected with location theory. Due to the exogenous data, the differences in the area of land use and total quantities of agricultural products were not clearly shown in this study. However, it was shown that the land use pattern is very different. That is, maximum guaranteed return model reveals a mixed land use pattern around the market town. Basically, this study shows some spatial and economic implications related to Von $Th{\ddot{u}}nen$ model.

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Erection Method for Marine Section of Double Deck Warren Truss in Young Jong Grand Bridge (영종대교 복층 Warren Truss 해상구간 가설공법)

  • Kim Jeong-Woong;Seo Jea-Hwa;Yang Mu-Seok;Yuk Il -Dong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.232-239
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    • 2001
  • Young Jong Grand Bridge is approach traffic road of New Inchon International Airport which covers hub airport function in northeast asia. The total span length of this bridge is $4,420{\cal}m$ and this main bridge type is, the first in the world, Double Deck Self Anchored Suspension Bridge, designed as double deck systems to be arranged by road and railroad. Approach bridges to be connected with main span also are composed double deck steel truss and steel box girder to consider a continuity with this span. Our company erected $1,375{\cal}m$(about 60,000tons) of double deck steel truss bridge type which is composed by 6 traffic lane on upper deck and 4 traffic lane and Double track railroad on lower deck. The original installation method of this bridge was planed to install about 75 meters bridge blocks to use floating crane, after temporary bent was constructed between permanent piers. But this method which had to construct many temporary bents in the sea had the matter that construction periods can become lengthen and construction cost can be risen. To overcome the uncertainty to ensure high qualify of bridge and economic project execution, our company developed new bridge erection method to assure both quality control and economic construction work. The new erection method which was developed by us was one that could transport and install long bridge block, $120{\cal}m$ unit at a time and that temporary bent was not required. We hope that this paper is used as technical data which will erect bridge in the western sea and others marine region.

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The Influence of Competition Uncertainty on Dancing High School Students' Impacts on Dancing Immersion and Achievement (무용전공고등학생의 경쟁불안이 무용몰입 및 무용성취에 미치는 영향)

  • Jung, Yu-Jin;Min, Yun-Mi
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.441-451
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    • 2020
  • The study was conducted with the aim of identifying the impact of competition anxiety on dance immersion and performance in high school students majoring in dance. As of 2020, online surveys were conducted on students majoring in dance at high schools in Seoul and the metropolitan area. A total of 222 people's data were processed by applying t-test, one-way variable analysis, correlation and multiple regression analysis through SPS 18.0 for Windows, resulting in the following conclusions. First, male students were more confident in their condition than female students, and students who recognized that their family's economic power was in the middle class were more aware. In addition, it was found that the group perceived that economic power was at the top of the list was higher than the median. Second, cognitive anxiety and self-confidence have been shown to have a static effect on immersion into dance. Third, cognitive anxiety and self-confidence have been shown to have a static effect on the achievement of uselessness. Fourth, immersion in dance appeared to be a powerful parameter related to competition anxiety and achievement of dance. To sum up the above conclusions, competition among high school students majoring in dance has been shown to increase their performance by immersing themselves in dance, but further studies of these psychological variables are expected to have side effects.

Analysis of Nursing Studies of Coping Conducted in Korea from 1978 to 1995 (대처 개념의 국내 간호연구 분석)

  • 소향숙;조복희;홍미순
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.709-729
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    • 1996
  • This study was done to analyze the trends of research on coping in Korea, to suggest future direction, for research on coping, and ultimately to contribute to an increase in explanation of adaptation. This article reviewed 79 nursing research papers on coping done since 1978 by examining them according to the period of publication or presentation, research design, type of subjects, measurement instruments, research for a degree or not, range of reliability, and association of coping and related variables. The results are as follows : The number of studies on coping increased rapidly from the mid-1980's and decreased slowly from the mid-1990's. The maority of the studies were surveys, comparative studies, or correlational studies. The subects of the 46 studies were healthy people, while those in the remaining studies were patients with a variety of illnesses. Thirth-eight studies on coping were done for master's thesis, three for dissertion, and 38 were not degrees. The Bell and Jalowiec coping scales have not been used since the early 1990's. In contrast, Lazarus and Folkman's W.C.C.L. has been used increasingly since that time. The reliabilities of the coping scale were reported in 37 cases and the Cronbach's alpha coefficients were .71 to .86. All subjects reported using more problem-oriented coping than emotion-oriented coping in short-term or emotion-oriented coping and healthy groups did more long-term coping. It was difficult to describe consistently the relationship between stress and coping according to the type of coping scale or research subjects, but generally moderate relationships were found. This was due to instrumental problems and no consideration of situational context. The subject group who used more short-term coping and less long-term coping reported poorer mental status, and higher scores in burnout and state anxiey than others. That is, the relationship between stress and adaptation increased the power of explanation with intervening the mediating effect of coping. The association of locus of control, mastery, social support, and self-concept with coping showed positive relationships : those of uncertainty and severity in illness with coping showed negativerelationships ; those of state anxiety and depression with short-term coping were positive, and those of self-esteem with long-term coping or problem-oriented coping were negative. There were significant differences in the scores of types of coping according to religion, level of education, and socio-economic status. That is, Presbyterians and Catholics, those with higher education levels and higher socio-economic status used more long-term or problem-oriented coping. On the basis of the above findings the following recommendations are made : 1. There is a need to test the mediating effect of coping variable in order to clarify the concept. 2. Longitudinal studies are needed to determine the patterns of change in coping strategies when stressful events are encountered. 3. It's necessary to develop a reliable and variable measurement tool for coping. 4. There is a need to identify subscales of coping to increase explanation of variance 5. It's necessary to consider personal, situational, and antecedent variables : the characteristics of subject populations, the natures of illness and treatment situations. 6. The power of explanation of studies designed to identify the stress-adaptation process should be increased using the combination model of process-oriented coping and cognitive-structural model.

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Strategic Planning of Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Infrastructure Considering the Uncertainty in the Operating Cost and Carbon Tax (불확실한 운영비용과 탄소세를 고려한 CCS 기반시설의 전략적 계획)

  • Han, Jee-Hoon;Lee, In-Beum
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.471-478
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    • 2012
  • A carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays a very important role to reduce $CO_2$ dramatically in $CO_2$ emission sources which are distributed throughout various areas. Numerous research works have been undertaken to analyze the techno-economic feasibility of planning the CCS infrastructure. However, uncertainties such as $CO_2$ emissions, $CO_2$ reduction costs, and carbon taxes may exist in various impact factors of the CCS infrastructure. However, few research works have adopted these uncertainties in designing the CCS infrastructure. In this study, a two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for planning the CCS infrastructure under uncertain operating costs and carbon taxes. It can help determine where and how much $CO_2$ to capture, store or transport for the purpose of minimizing the total annual $CO_2$ reduction cost in handling the uncertainties while meeting the $CO_2$ mitigation target. The capability of the proposed model to provide correct decisions despite changing the operating costs and carbon taxes is tested by applying it to a real case study based on Korea. The results will help to determine planning of a CCS infrastructure under uncertain environments.

Analysis of Container Shipping Market Using Multivariate Time Series Models (다변량 시계열 모형을 이용한 컨테이너선 시장 분석)

  • Ko, Byoung-Wook;Kim, Dae-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2019
  • In order to enhance the competitiveness of the container shipping industry and promote its development, based on the empirical analyses using multivariate time series models, this study aims to suggest a few strategies related to the dynamics of the container shipping market. It uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models as analytical methodologies. Additionally, it uses the annual trade volumes, fleets, and freight rates as the dataset. According to the empirical results, we can infer that the most exogenous variable, the trade volume, exerted the highest influence on the total dynamics of the container shipping market. Based on these empirical results, this study suggests some implications for ship investment, freight rate forecasting, and the strategies of shipping firms. Concerning ship investment, since the exogenous trade volume variable contributes most to the uncertainty of freight rates, corporate finance can be considered more appropriate for container ship investment than project finance. Concerning the freight rate forecasting, the VAR and VEC models use the past information and the cointegrating regression model assumes future information, and hence the former models are found better than the latter model. Finally, concerning the strategies of shipping firms, this study recommends the use of cycle-linked repayment scheme and services contract.

A Study on Global Strategies of Tank Terminal Operators and Implications for Korea's Oil Hub Policy in Northeast Asia (탱크터미널 운영기업의 글로벌 전략과 우리나라의 동북아 석유물류허브 정책에 대한 시사점)

  • Lee, Choong-Bae;Park, Sun-Young
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.63-86
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    • 2009
  • With increasing uncertainty of energy market in the world, the policies for the energy resource security have become crucial Several countries with poor energy resource like Netherlands and Singapore have pursued the policy for becoming an oil hub in the region. Singapore has been an oil hub in East Asia for a long time not only because it is well located with a large number of countries exporting and importing oil but it has also pursued strong policies to become an oil hub while establishing favourable institutional, regulatory and business environment for accommodating major refineries and petro-chemical companies. However with growing trading volume of petroleum products in Northeast Asia and a record high price of oil in these days, the necessities of another oil hub in the region are considered in order to reap benefits of the security of economical and stable oil. South Korea is situated astride the main North Pacific shipping route, with deep water ports and proximity to Chinese and Japanese industrial centres that make tank terminal operators Ideal choices for the oil hub in Northeast Asia although it has several disadvantages such as lack of independent storage facilities, underdeveloped oil trading market and unfavourable business friendly climates etc. This study is focused on examining the globalization strategies of tank terminal operators such as Vopak, Oiltanking and Odfjell in order to suggest the policy implications for becoming an oil tub in Northeast Asia.

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Physically Based Landslide Susceptibility Analysis Using a Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation in Sangju Area, Gyeongsangbuk-Do (Fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation을 이용한 물리 사면 모델 기반의 상주지역 산사태 취약성 분석)

  • Jang, Jung Yoon;Park, Hyuck Jin
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.239-250
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    • 2017
  • Physically based landslide susceptibility analysis has been recognized as an effective analysis method because it can consider the mechanism of landslide occurrence. The physically based analysis used the slope geometry and geotechnical properties of slope materials as input. However, when the physically based approach is adopted in regional scale area, the uncertainties were involved in the analysis procedure due to spatial variation and complex geological conditions, which causes inaccurate analysis results. Therefore, probabilistic method have been used to quantify these uncertainties. However, the uncertainties caused by lack of information are not dealt with the probabilistic analysis. Therefore, fuzzy set theory was adopted in this study because the fuzzy set theory is more effective to deal with uncertainties caused by lack of information. In addition, the vertex method and Monte Carlo simulation are coupled with the fuzzy approach. The proposed approach was used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility for a regional study area. In order to compare the analysis results of the proposed approach, Monte Carlo simulation as the probabilistic analysis and the deterministic analysis are used to analyze the landslide susceptibility for same study area. We found that Fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation showed the better prediction accuracy than the probabilistic analysis and the deterministic analysis.

Is Lowest-Low Fertility going to Continue in Korea? (초저출산은 지속될 것인가?)

  • Chung, Sung-Ho
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.113-136
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    • 2010
  • Low fertility has become quite commonplace worldwide, and Europe has experienced below replacement fertility for several decades. In addition, lowest-low fertility, defined as period total fertility rate below 1.3, has rapidly spread in Europe during the 1990s and is likely to expand further. After the turn of century, lowest-low fertility started spreading in Eastern Asia. Korea's TFR of 1.19 in 2008 is lower than most European countries, although it is higher than the Hongkong(1.02) and Taiwan(1.09). The purpose of this paper is to examine the socioeconomic determinants of lowest-low fertility in Korea. In doing so, this paper discusses the effects of female labour force participation, labour instability on family formation and fertility. The data includes female labour force participation rate, unemployment rate, age at first marriage, and total fertility rate from 1980 to 2008. First, the economic recession hindered young people's economic independence and propensity to marry. Married couples were also depressed with uncertainty toward the future and avoided to have children. Second, the growth in female labor force participation had a negative impact on fertility, under the low level of compatibility between women's work and childrearing. Moreover, this paper argues that the rising cost of children including public and private educational costs is thought to be the main reason of the recent low fertility in Korea. Policy implications and some comments on population policies are also presented in the final section.