• Korean Security Journal
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• no.31
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• pp.125-155
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• 2012

Terrorist organization has shown the trend of secret organization and it is harder to cope with terrorism because of uncertainty of terrorism. Homegrown terrorism is the one, whose preparation, execution and effect are restricted to domestic area. By the way, in the worldwide economic depression, violence and radical demonstration have shown the expansion trends as in Middle East, political revolution of Africa, anti-social resistance of Europe and Wall Street Occupation of USA. Homegrown terrorism is occurring in various countries such as UK and Spain as well as USA. Specialists warn homegrown terrorism in Korea. The purpose of this study was to prospect the possibility of homegrown terrorism that can be generated in the transfer to multi-culture society as various foreigners come to Korea rapidly and suggest the method to cope with the trend. The study analyzed environment and analysis of homegrown terrorism that Korea faces now. The methods to cope with homegrown terrorism are as follows. First, distribution of radical homegrown terrorism via internet should be prevented. Second, the connection between terrorist organization and homegrown terrorist should be prevented. Third, there should be a cooperation among government, residents and religious group. Fourth, there should be an open approach against multi-culture society. Fifth, there should be a systematic control for cause of new conflict. Finally, there should be a long-term approach to cause of new conflict. If we do not make an effort to prevent homegrown terrorism, terrorism environment may face new aspect and national and social cost for it will increase.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.29-48
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• 2012

As the complexity and uncertainty of social and economic systems increase, the strategic foresight that actively and effectively responds to the environmental changes becomes important. A wide range of future forecasting methods are available for strategic foresight. Selecting one of the methods depends on several factors such as availability of time and financial resources and the objectives of the exercise. Although trend extrapolation analysis has been used for many years, scenario planning is being widely used by government and corporate as a tool for strategic decision making in recent years. Generally, scenario planning is carried out through workshop, in which experts with diverse backgrounds exchange information, views, and insights and integrate the diverse viewpoints. However, only a small number of experts can participate in a workshop and citizen opinion is not easily transformed into the policy for the scenario exercise due to the limitation of budget and short duration of a project. It is also much harder to develop creative ideas in the workshop because of the limited time and space. In this study, a new scenario process combining scenario workshop and wiki is proposed to overcome the limitation of scenario workshop. This combined approach can be more productive than using scenario workshop alone when developing new ideas. In this study, we applied the combined approach to develop scenarios for the strategic foresight of future media and present suggestions for improving the process.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.219-246
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• 2020

From the Phase II (2018~2020) of K-ETS, the offset credit from 'CDM projects that domestic companies and others have carried out in foreign countries' can be used in the K-ETS. As a result, stakeholders in the K-ETS market are actively developing overseas CDM projects, such as the 'high-efficiency cook stove project'. which can secure a large amount of credits while marginal cost is relatively low. This paper develops the investment decision-making model of offset project for the 'high-efficiency cook stove project' using the real option approach. Under the uncertainty of the emission allowance price, the optimal investment threshold (p^⁎) is derived and sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, in the standard scenario (PoA-S), the optimal investment threshold is 29,054won/ton, which is lower than the stock price (p^⁎_spot). However, allocation entities are not only economics in the CDM project, but also CDM risk factors such as non-renewable biomass ratio, cook stove replacement ratio, equity ratio with host country, investment period and submission limitation of emission allowance. In addition, offset project developers will be able to derive the optimal investment threshold for each business stage and use it for economic feasibility checks.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.10
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• pp.977-987
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• 2013

This study aims to develop a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) approach for flood vulnerability assessment which considers uncertainty. The flood vulnerability assessment procedure consists of three steps: (1) use the Delphi process to determine the criteria and their corresponding weights-the adopted criteria represent the social, economic, and environmental circumstances related to floods, (2) construct a fuzzy data matrix for the flood vulnerability criteria using fuzzification and standardization, and (3) set priorities based on the number of assessed vulnerabilities. This study uses a modified fuzzy TOPSIS method based on ${\alpha}$-level sets which considers various uncertainties related to weight derivation and crisp data aggregation. Further, Spearman's rank correlation analysis is used to compare the rankings obtained using the proposed method with those obtained using fuzzy TOPSIS with fuzzy data, TOPSIS, and WSM methods with crisp data. The fuzzy TOPSIS method based on ${\alpha}$-cut level sets is found to have a higher correlation rate than the other methods, and thus, it can reduce the difference of the rankings which uses crisp and fuzzy data. Thus, the proposed flood vulnerability assessment method can effectively support flood management policies.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.69-89
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• 2014

The business performance of port industry is steadily getting worse due to international environmental regulation. The port industry should be prepared according to ambient condition change. IMO(International Maritime Organization) is tightening up environmental regulation of vessel and maritime industry field. ECA(Emission Control Area), starting with the Baltic, has initialized and has been expanded. Korea must strengthen the control of vessel in accordance with IMO's restriction, if Korea is designated as emission control area. These situations cause the expansion of LNG-fuelled ships. Add to the larger trend of ships, Korean government should be done a preemptive action against LNG bunkering industry. This study proposes the concept of floating offshore LNG bunkering system and is conducted its economic feasibility evaluation based on empirical analysis. We examine the theoretical foundation and basic information via "A Planning Study on the Engineering Development of Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering Terminal" in 2013 and we evaluate the business potential by using the report above mentioned. The results of this study are as follows. The values of B/C analysis are between 0.679 and 2.516 depending on market share and R&D contributiveness. In case of 10.9%(market share), if market share are 50% and 60%, the value of B/C analysis are 0.697 and 0.837 respectively. Except in two cases, all remaining values are over 1.0. Moreover, the research is conducted sensitivity analysis to remove the project uncertainty. In order to maintain economical validity, a project manager have to establish business strategies which are not to cause increase of expense and sustain market share and R&D contributiveness in the scenario with normal levels.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.302-308
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• 2020

This study investigated when TV drama producers choose famous actor/actress based on 288 TV dramas aired in Korea from January 2014 to December 2017. We considered the length of drama, measured by the number of episodes, as a major determinant for choosing famous actor/actress, as well as the existence of originals, use of independent producing agents, and producers' fame as interacting factors between length of drama and choosing famous actor/actress. We detected that drama length had a significant effect while original dramas had an interacting effect. We interpret this result as the effect of mismanagement of drama producing. While a famous actor/actress has the potential to provide economic gains to drama producers, drama producers should be careful in choosing him/her since his/her drama guarantee should be high. This is why producers should choose a famous actor/actress when the length of the drama is short and should prefer an original drama.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.343-350
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• 2015

Extensive discussion on the optimal types of offshore wind turbine(OWT) among monopile, tripod and jacket in the intermediate depth of water has been actively carried out in worldwide wind turbine industry. Selecting the optimal types of OWT among several substructural types, it is required to consider the economic and technical feasibility including dynamically stable design of a wind turbine system. In this study, the effects of loading levels and uncertainties of soil properties on the natural frequency of OWT have been quantitatively investigated. In conclusion, the natural frequency of monopile-type OWTs has a significant level of uncertainty, hence it is very important to minimize the level of uncertainties in soil properties when the monopile is selected as a foundation for an OWT.

• Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.179-190
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• 2016

A kind of modified epoxy resin sheet molding compounds of the impeller has been designed. Through the test, the non-metal impeller has a better environmental aging performance, but must do the waterproof processing design. In order to improve the stability of the impeller vibration design, the influence of uncertainty factors is considered, and a multi-objective robust optimization method is proposed to reduce the weight of the impeller. Firstly, based on the fluid-structure interaction, the analysis model of the impeller vibration is constructed. Secondly, the optimal approximate model of the impeller is constructed by using the Latin hypercube and radial basis function, and the fitting and optimization accuracy of the approximate model is improved by increasing the sample points. Finally, the micro multi-objective genetic algorithm is applied to the robust optimization of approximate model, and the Monte Carlo simulation and Sobol sampling techniques are used for reliability analysis. By comparing the results of the deterministic, different sigma levels and different materials, the multi-objective optimization of the SMC molding impeller can meet the requirements of engineering stability and lightweight. And the effectiveness of the proposed multi-objective robust optimization method is verified by the error analysis. After the SMC molding and the robust optimization of the impeller, the optimized rate reached 42.5%, which greatly improved the economic benefit, and greatly reduce the vibration of the ventilation system.

• Journal of Digital Contents Society
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.1213-1216
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• 2017

Recently due to the increasing uncertainty of the disaster environment caused by climate change the effects of disasters have become larger due to the confluence and solidification diversification into disaster type and secondary damage. In this paper, we apply ICBMS through intelligent information technology and big data analysis to all processes of disaster safety management to minimize human, social, economic and environment damage from accidents or disasters, and prevention by control technology preparation by education and training expansion to remember by body, response by advanced technology of disaster response unmanned technology restoration by creation of local community environment ecosystem, investigation and analysis by intelligent information technology learn about disaster safety management 4.0. In addition, technical limitation and problems in the $4^{th}$ industrial revolution and the application of big data were analyzed and suggested alternatives and strategies to overcome.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.19-45
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• 2003

The main issues addressed in this paper are as follows : First, this paper makes a distinction among types of e-money, IC card type versus Network type, open-loop type versus closed-loop type, online type versus offline type and accountable type versus unaccountable type, and analysis the clear and accurate criterion. Second, generally speaking, e-money is a claim on originator of e-money and not legal tender, so, delivery of e-money by itself does not relieve of monetary obligation. Between it is not easy to define e-money, by now there are many definitions of e-money, there is a legal uncertainty accordingly and then it is not easy to find proper law applicable to resolve a particular issue. As a result. many problems relating to e-money would be solved through analogical application of the moot proper law among the laws that apply to the cash, check, credit card, or fund transfer after analyzing type of e-money at issue. This paper studies the methods on diffusion of the utilization of electronic money. To diffuse the usage of electronic money, it need; prerequisitely as a basic conditions independence of electronic money, non-reusability, and anonymity. And also as a additional conditions it need; usability in the offline commerce, transferability, divisibility. And now electronic money is used very actively, but still has many Jaw problems such as protections of consumer, law enforcement, supervisory, etc. So electronic money has called as money, but it is sure that electronic money is not a legal tender. So to facilitate the economic function of the electronic monel it is need to supplement the electronic money in the legal sides.