• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic uncertainty

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A Study on the Spillover Effect of Information between Factors Related to Steel Materials and BCI (제철원료 관련 요인과 BCI 간의 정보전이 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Yo-Pyung Hwang;Ye-Eun Oh;Keun-Sik Park
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.133-154
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    • 2022
  • The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI), which is used as an indicator for marine transportation of steel raw materials, is one of the key economic indexes for managing the risk of loss due to rapid market fluctuations when steel companies establish business strategies and procuring plans for raw materials. Still, the conditions of supply and demand of steel raw materials has been extremely affected by volatility shocks from drastic events like the financial crisis such as the Lehman Brothers incident and changes in the external environment such as COVID-19. And, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, endeavors to predict the market conditions of the steel raw material is becoming more and more arduous for the deepening uncertainty and increased volatility of BCI, which has been used as a leading indicator of the real economy. This study investigates the correlation between the steel raw material market and the marine transportation market by estimating the spillover effect of information between markets. The vector error correction model (VECM) was used to analyze information transfer based on the correlation between the BCI and crude steel production, capesize fleet supply, raw material price, and cargo volume.

A Study on the Renegotiation and Adaptation of International Long Term Commercial Contracts: Focusing on the Contracts without the Renegotiating Clauses (국제장기상거래계약에서의 재협상 및 계약변경에 관한 연구: 원계약 상 관련 조항이 포함되지 않은 계약을 중심으로)

  • Joo‐Young Yoon
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.117-139
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    • 2020
  • In case of international long-term transactions, there are various risks of economic change of circumstances including skyrocketing price increase and shortage of raw material, as well as force majeure in a general sense. Nevertheless, pretty many of international long-term commercial contracts do not include the provisions of renegotiation and adaptation of the contract. In this case, possibility of renegotiation and adaptation depends mainly on the applicable law. Namely, it may be possible or not, according to choice of law. The reason is that national laws have nuances each other, and most of national courts are traditionally reluctant to accept hardship. and also, provisions of international uniform law (CISG) has ambiguity and inflexibility in relation to the problems of change of circumstances. Accordingly, this paper analyzes comparatively the doctrines and provisions related to renegotiation and adaptation of contracts of the most representative countries such as England, U.S.A., France, Germany as well as provisions CISG and soft law such as PICC. By doing so, the author makes clear which laws of instruments is more flexible or acceptable in allowing renegotiation and adaptation of long-term commercial contracts, and emphasizes on the importance of inclusion of express terms by using other alternative supplementing clauses, as a best solution for settling the problems of legal uncertainty of contract in relation to renegotiation and adaptation.

Creative City and Creative Class: Conceptual Issues and Critiques (창조도시와 창조계급: 개념적 논제들과 비판)

  • Choi, Byung-Doo
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.49-69
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    • 2014
  • The theory of creative city can be seen as one that reflects a relationship between recent change of economic environment and socio-spatial reconstruction in the so-called 'cultural turn' to deindustrialization. This paper considers approaching methods to knowledge-based economy or cultural economy as a context of development of theory of creative city, and suggests types of conceptualization of creative city. Then it reviews creative perspectives which can be found in recent domestic and oversea research trends on creative city, especially relating its nature with neoliberalism. Finally this paper discusses critically the concept of creative class as a social constitution of creativity or creative economy, and that of creative city as its spatial constitution. The concept of creative class can be criticized in terms of ambiguity of the concept of class, class-biased and economy-privileged idea, market valorization of culture, individualization against community, normalization of flexible labor market, and uncertainty of economic success of creative city. The concept of creative city can be criticized in terms of limitation of interests to city, ignorance of national and global dimensions, decontextual normative vision, legitimation of neoliberal city, lack of proof of causality between creative class and economic success, polarization of within and between cities.

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Valuing the Risks Created by Road Transport Demand Forecasting in PPP Projects (민간투자 도로사업의 교통수요 예측위험의 경제적 가치)

  • Kim, Kangsoo;Cho, Sungbin;Yang, Inseok
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.31-61
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to calculate the economic value of transport demand forecasting risks in the road PPP project. Under the assumption that volatility of the road PPP project value occurs only in regard with uncertainty of traffic volume forecasting, this study calculates the economic value of the traffic forecasting risks in the case of the road PPP project. To that end, forecasted traffic volume is assumed to be a stochastic variable and to follow the Geometric Brownian motion as time passes. In particular, this study attempts to differentiate itself from existing studies that simply use an arbitrary assumption by presenting the application of different traffic volume growth volatility and the rates before and after the ramp-up period. Analysis of the case projects reveals that the risk premium related to traffic volume forecast of the project turns out as 7.39~8.30%, without considering option value-such as minimum revenue guarantee-while the project value volatility caused by transport demand forecasting risks is 17.11%. As the discount rate grows higher, the project value volatility tends to decrease and volatility in project value is always suggested to be larger than that in transport volume influenced by leverage effect due to fixed expenditure. The market value of transport demand forecasting risk-calculated using the project value volatility and risk premium-is analyzed to be between 0.42~0.50, implying that a 1% increase or decrease in the transport amount volatility would lead to a 0.42~0.50% increase or decrease in risk premium of the project.

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The Effect of Cloud Service Risks on the Intention of Purchasing Real Options: Focusing on Public Cloud Service of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (클라우드 서비스 위험이 실물옵션 채택의도에 미치는 영향: 중소기업의 퍼블릭 클라우드 서비스를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jeong-eun;Yang, Hee-dong
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.117-140
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    • 2015
  • Cloud Computing has drawn attention as one of 10 IT strategic technology trends and has various advantages such as cost reduction and enhancing business flexibility. However, corporations hesitate to adopt the service because of unexpected risks. Especially compared to large firm, medium and small ones use public cloud that security risk is high. Meanwhile, real option strategy has drawn attention as the method to hedge uncertainty in IT projects. Therefore, in this study causal relationships among technical, security, relational, and economic risks of cloud service will be investigated. Eventually, this study investigates how those risks influence the intention to choose the real option about the cloud service. For this study, five hypotheses is drawn, and a survey is conducted about the medium and small firms which are currently using cloud service to examine hypotheses. Since the study is at organizational level, 287 questionnaire replies are recalculated to 120 firms. For statistical analysis, Smart PLS and SPSS Statistics18 are used. As a result, technical risk of cloud service has significantly positive influence on security risk. Second, security risk and relational risk of cloud service has significantly positive influence on economic risk. Third, economic risk of cloud service has significantly positive influence on the intention to purchase the delay option or abandon option. Based on this result, this research discussed practical and academic implications and the limitations.

An Analysis of the Economic Effects of Corporate Accumulated Earnings Tax System (기업소득 환류세제의 경제적 효과분석)

  • Kim, Dong-Hun
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.367-380
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    • 2020
  • Recently, Korea's economy is facing a difficult economic situation due to sluggish domestic demand, low corporate investment and a cliff in youth employment. In order to overcome this problem and turn the economy into a virtuous circle, the government has introduced and implemented various economic policies. In this study, the effects of the corporate accumulated earnings tax system included in the 2014 tax code revision were to be verified. The validity of the business income was verified and analyzed using the financial data of the entity as to whether the income of the entity was being circulated to household income. First, validating the validity of whether the income tax on non-current income affects the level of an entity's investment, the results showed significant negative effects at a significant level of 5 per cent. Second, the analysis of whether the return tax on corporate income is affecting management decisions that increase the level of dividends for an entity has identified a metaphorical positive relationship. Third, it was confirmed that the income tax on uncurrency income does not have a significant effect on the increase in wages for workers. The result is presumed to be the main reason for the increased uncertainty in the economy and business environment.

A Study of Policy Change on K-ETS and its Objective Conformity (한국 배출권거래제 정책 변동의 목적 부합성 연구)

  • Oh, Il-Young;Yoon, Young Chai
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.325-342
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    • 2018
  • The Korea Emissions Trading Scheme ( K-ETS), which manages roughly 70% of the greenhouse gas emissions in South Korea, was initiated in 2015, after implementation of its 1st basic plan and the 1st allocation plan (2014) for the 1st phase (2015-2017). During the three and a half years since the launch of K-ETS, there have been critical policy change such as adjustment of the institutions involved, development and revision of the 2030 national GHG reduction roadmap, and change in the allocation plans. Moreover, lack of liquidity and fluctuation of carbon prices in the K-ETS market during this period has forced the Korean government to adjust the flexibility mechanism and auction permits of the market stability reserve. To evaluate the policy change in the K-ETS regarding conformance to its objectives, this study defines three objectives (Environmental Effectiveness, Cost Effectiveness and Economic Efficiency) and ten indicators. Evaluation of Environmental Effectiveness of K-ETS suggests that the national GHG reduction roadmap, coverage of GHG emitters and credibility of MRV positively affect GHG mitigation. However, there was a negative policy change implemented in 2017 that weakened the emission cap during the 1st phase. In terms of the Cost Effectiveness, the K-ETS policies related to market management and flexibility mechanism (e.g. banking, borrowing and offsets) were improved to deal with the liquidity shortage and permit price increase, which were caused by policy uncertainty and conservative behavior of firms during 2016-2018. Regarding Economic Efficiency, K-ETS expands benchmark?based allocation and began auction-based allocation; nevertheless, free allocation is being applied to sectors with high carbon leakage risk during the 2nd phase (2018-2020). As a result, it is worth evaluating the K-ETS policies that have been developed with respect to the three main objectives of ETS, considering the trial?and?error approach that has been followed since 2015. This study suggests that K-ETS policy should be modified to strengthen the emission cap, stabilize the market, expand auction-based allocation and build K-ETS specified funds during the 3rd phase (2021-2025).

Employment Protection Legislation Concerning Service Provision Change in Great Britain (노무용역 공급업체의 변동에 관련된 영국의 고용보호 법제)

  • Cho, Kyung-Bae
    • Journal of Legislation Research
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    • no.44
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    • pp.655-688
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    • 2013
  • Most of all the transfer of undertakings in such a service provision business as labour-intensive operation creates uncertainty of employment, aggravates terms of employment and breaks a trade union. However there are no regulations in Korea to protect employees from these undesirable situations. On the other hand Great Britain has introduced the concept of a transfer of undertakings by service provision change in 2006. It was intended to remove or at least alleviate the uncertainties and difficulties created by the need under TUPE 1981 and EU Directive to establish a transfer of a stable economic identity which retained its identity in the hands of the alleged transferee. In contrast to the words used to define transfer in the 1981 Regulations 'service provision change' is a wholly new statutory concept and distinguished from the economic entity. The new provisions seems to be straightforwards and the circumstances in which service provision change is established are clearly set out in Regulations. In this context there is no need for a judicially prescribed multi-factorial approach, as advanced by European Court of Justice like Spijkers test. The new concept of service provision change apply even though there are some minor difference or differences between the nature of the tasks carried on after service provision change as compared with before it. A commonsense and pragmatic approach is required and It is enough only to ask whether the activities carried on by the alleged transferee are fundamentally or essentially the same as those carried out by the alleged transfer. TUPE 2006 of Great Britain far exceeding the scope of the Acquired Rights Directive is full of suggestions as a model of legislation to secure a stable employment itself and favorable and fair conditions of employment. More active efforts are needed for lawmaking to prohibit a dismissal and vary conditions of employment for the reason of the transfer of undertakings itself.

Adjustment effect of the suitability factors of strategy between Information Technology Outsourcing(ITO)'s influence and outcome factors in Government offices (전략의 적합성 요인이 ITO 영향요인과 성과요인 간에 미치는 조절효과 - 공공기관 중심으로)

  • Jun, Je-Man;Yi, Seon-Gyu
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2013
  • This study analyzed that adjustment roles of the organization and Information System strategy suitability factors between influence and introduction outcome factors in the IT outsourcing in government offices. Influence factors of IT outsourcing are organization factor(information system maturity, CEO's support), trade factor(asset speciality, uncertainty, using degree of information system), risk factor(risk of security, risk of increase in cost, risk of losing autonomy). And outcome factors are set as economic effect and technology effect. We analyzed that organization and IS strategy suitability factors as moderator variables. Results are the followings. It was analyzed that organization and IS strategy suitability factors are in charge of adjusting role among information system maturity which is lower variable of organization factor, CEO's support, uncertainty of trade factor's lower variable, risk of security which is risk factor's lower variable, risk of increase in cost, loss of autonomy. Therefore, in order for organization to increase the outcome of information technology, organization strategy and IS strategy should be promoted in combined manner. However, it was analyzed that strategy suitability could not take the adjusting role between asset specialty and introduction outcome.

The Hope of the Stroke Patients (뇌졸중환자의 희망)

  • 김이순
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.212-227
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    • 1997
  • Cerebrovascular diseases in Korea is an important health problem since mortality and mobidity have been increased rapidly. It marked the 2nd cause of specific death rates in 1993. The stroke causes physical function disorder due to hemiparalysis and emotional disorder, and stroke patients experience helplessness, powerlessness. sense of alienation and loss of hope. These feelings make the rehabilitation difficult because they lose the will of life. The subjects of the study were seven citizens who live in Pusan, are over 50 years old and belong to low income-level. The data were collected from Jan. to Sep. 1995. The researcher as a caregiver and volunteer made confidence of them and asked for their agreement on the purpose of the study. The subjects expressed their experience as openheartedly as possible. The analysis of the data was made through the phenomenological analytic method suggested by Giorgi, which is as follows ; as an unit of description which include the subject' expressions and the researcher's observation, it is examined the theme that express the hope experience with the subject's language(underlining), and the focal meanings are identified. The focal meaning is the crystalization of the theme, which is written in the language of the researcher. After intergrating the focal meaning and make the situated structural description as the meaning of the hope experience identified on each subject's point. After intergrating the situated structural description and make the general structural description as the meaning of the hope experience identified on total subject's point then the systemizing of the structure of the hope experienced phenomena and the flowing of the conciousness was researched. The conclusions of this study was as follows : The ten sources of hope which the subjects experienced were sorted as under 〈mutual relations to others : spouse, children, relatives, fellow believer. health professioner. associate patient group〉, 〈spiritual dependence〉. 〈recovery of physical function〉. 〈rumination of the past life〉, 〈expectation of the future〉. 〈economic power〉, 〈belief〉, 〈ability〉. 〈spontaneous participation〉 and 〈recovery of roles〉. Their hope was spoken out by the following two kinds of linguistics. First. the hope was expressed in the affirmative expression as follows : 〈 to be dependable〉, 〈to make efforts〉, 〈to keep under control〉, 〈to desire〉, 〈to be pleasant〉, 〈to be peaceful〉, 〈to be grateful〉, 〈to give help〉, 〈self-confidence. Courage〉, 〈to be happy〉, 〈to satisfy oneself〉, 〈to share with others〉, 〈to understand〉 and 〈to be affected, be impressed〉 Second, the hope was expressed in the negative on pression as under : 〈to be distressed〉, 〈to be uneasy〉, 〈to be sorry, be unsatisfied〉 〈despair〉, 〈to abandon〉, 〈to be fearful〉, 〈to suffer〉, 〈to bear a burden〉 〈to be confused〉, 〈to be solitary〉, 〈chest trouble〉, 〈to feel heavy〉 〈grief〉, 〈to be daunted〉, 〈to get angry〉, 〈to be uncomfortable〉, 〈to have something regretable〉 and 〈to feel guilty〉. And their hope was expressed by the following four behavioral expressions : 〈physical sphere〉, 〈psychological sphere〉, 〈social support sphere〉 and 〈spiritual sphere〉. The reaction patterns of their hope experience appeared in the following 4 coping method : 〈conquest type〉, 〈dependence type〉, 〈adaptation type〉 and 〈fate type〉. Finally, in the hope structure the sense of certainty don't always coexict with the sense of uncertainty, When the stroke patients try to search for the best quality of life, the senses of certainty and uncertainty make a continual cyclic system in the hope structure.

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