• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1994.02a
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• pp.440-449
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• 1994

Current risk assessment practices largely reflect the need for a consistent set of relatively rapid, first-cut procedures to assess 'plausible upper limits' of various risks. These practices have important roles to play in 1) screening candidate hazards for initial attention and 2) directing attention to cases where moderate-cost measures to control exposures are likely to be warranted, in the absence of further extensive (and expensive) data gathering and analysis. A problem with the current practices, however, is that they have led assessors to do a generally poor job of analyzing and expressing uncertainties, fostering 'One-Number Disease' (in which everything from one's social policy position on risk acceptance to one's technical judgment on the likelihood of different cancer dose-response relationships is rolled into a single quantity). At least for analyses that involve relatively important decisions for society (both relatively large potential health risks and relatively large potential economic costs or other disruptions), we can and should at least go one further step - and that is to assess and convey both a central tendency estimate of exposure and risk as well as our more conventional 'conservative' upper-confidence-limit values. To accomplish this, more sophisticated efforts are needed to appropriately represent the likely effects of various sources of uncertainty along the casual chain from the release of toxicants to the production of adverse effects. When the effects of individual sources of uncertainty are assessed (and any important interactions included), Monte Carlo simulation procedures can be used to produce an overall analysis of uncertainties and to highlight areas where uncertainties might be appreciably reduced by further study. Beyond the information yielded by such analyses for decision-making in a few important cases, the value of doing several exemplary risk assessments in. this way is that a set of benchmarks can be defined that will help calibrate the assumptions used in the larger number of risk assessments that must be done by 'default' procedures.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2009

The primary purpose of ITQ (individually transferable quota) is to reduce the overcapitalization problem in the open-access fishery. It has been argued that the least cost-efficient vessels under ITQ may exit first from the fishing by selling their quotas, thereby also reducing the excess capital. The purpose of this paper is to provide a case when ITQ may prompt the exit of less cost-inefficient vessels in the presence of irreversible exit cost which is proportional to the cost-inefficiency. Real option model is adopted in order to analyze the source of hysteresis associated with fishery exit decision. By linking the interaction between vessels' adjustment costs, cost-efficiency of harvest and uncertainty of fishery return, we show that cost-inefficient vessels will not exit always first from the fishery in contrast to the conventional wisdom. Relevant policy implications is discussed.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.49-75
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• 2003

This paper empirically examines multiskill formation as a critical mechanism of human capital accumulation within the firm. We investigate various factors that foster multiskill formation of the employees at the workplace. We also investigate whether and how multiskill formation of the employees, in tum, affect the labor productivity. Our empirical results are summarized as the following. First, skills of the employees are developed along the sequential path rather than the parallel path. They evolve from the simple-skill to the single-skill, and then to the multi-skill state. Second, multi skilling is stimulated by uncertainty factors of the environment and various human resource management practices such as mutual learning among workers, workers' participation in decision making, and job rotation. Third, the increase in the ratio of multiskilled workers in the firm has a positive impact on the growth of the firm's labor productivity. Our analyses show that the labor productivity growth increases by 0.019 with the increase in multi skilling ratio by 0.1. Fourth, uncertainty and human resource management practices had an indirect impact on labor productivity growth only through multiskilling. These results strongly indicate that multiskilling is a result of human capital accumulation fostered by various human resource management practices.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.57-78
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• 2006

Now post 2012 greenhouse gas reduction commitment being discussed, studies about long-term GHG reduction scenarios toward 2050 have actively been worked separately from 5 years short-term approach. In this paper, background, temperature target, $CO_2$ concentration target, national emission target, and approach of long-term reduction scenarios toward 2050 particularly in European countries such as UK, Germany, France, Netherlands et al. are reviewed. After comparing GDP and emission indices between Developed (European) countries and Korea, some implications of long-term GHG reduction scenarios are deduced. Acting early owing to uncertainty in climate change impact and technology development rather than delaying reduction activity owing to scientific uncertainty in climate change is needed. Providing our society's vision of climate change and government's explicit direction through long-term GHG reduction target setting toward 2050 and economic units' preparing for those are needed.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.169-174
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• 2018

Today, the world has reached 'Industry 4.0'. Industry 4.0 has high uncertainty in various aspects because it is based on building a smart chain where the various elements that make up the industry can communicate with each other. Based on the above facts, based on the researches of the previous researchers, we have searched for the countermeasures of small and medium sized manufacturing companies in Korea in order to minimize the negative aspects of establishing the basic concepts and functioning of Industry 4.0. As a result, efforts to accurately identify and address the uncertainties of Industry 4.0 in a variety of ways will help to drive business growth and economic growth in the country through smart factories, which are at the heart of Industry 4.0.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.102-108
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to develop a proactive methodology for disruption due to uncertainty in vessels' arrival time. As worldwide imports and exports increased rapidly, the importance of berth planning in container terminals has increased accordingly. Since the berth plan determines the capacity of the container terminal, it aims to maximize efficiency by minimizing the time and space gap between the vessels. In reality, several uncertainties disrupt the initial berth plan resulting in economic losses. In this study, we propose a robust berth plan for preventing disruption.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.48-70
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• 2020

Using data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey over the period 1994-2016, we estimate the coefficient of relative prudence in order to capture precautionary saving motive. To do this, we adopt a cohort approach, where we transform such microdata into sample cohort means. Together with initial income involving liquidity constraint, we estimate the relative prudence derived from the Euler equation. The two-stage least-squares (2SLS) between estimate of it obtained from the cohort panel data analysis is too small for the existence of precautionary saving motive, as in previous studies, while the 2SLS random effects estimate is so reasonable. Moreover, the liquidity-constrained cohorts tend to be more sensitive to uncertainty, relative to the unconstrained ones.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.1-31
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• 2008

Various opinions have been suggested to explain the slump in equipment investment, such as increased government regulations, shareholder-oriented management by expanded foreign equity investment, response against M&A threats, conservative investment trends seen after a series of bankruptcy of large conglomerates (amidst crumbling myth of "Too Big to Fail"), and financial restructuring. Some also argued that the increased uncertainty in business environment is mainly responsible for conservative management, though there are few domestic studies made regarding the situation. But, in other countries, including the U.S., studies have shown that more volatility is seen now surrounding stock prices, profitability, and sales growth rate reflecting business performance. Also, there are other studies showing such expanded volatility have led to conservative management by businesses. In this regard, this study reviews the volatility conditions of business performance of Korean companies based on profitability, and then attempts to analyze the impact on investment brought on by increased volatility. Each company's profitability volatility used here is from the standard deviation of companies for the past five years. As a profitability indicator, the ROA (= operating profit/total asset) is used. According to the analysis, profitability volatility has remarkably increased from the mid 3% in 1994 to low 5% in 2005. Profitability volatility of the Korean companies has expanded to a great extent since the financial crisis. The crisis might have served to raise the volatility in the macroeconomic conditions. If increased volatility observed during the economic crisis had gradually declined after the crisis, the situation could be interpreted as a temporary phenomenon, not to be too concerned over. But, this was not the case for Korea. The volatility level, after the crisis, has not dropped back to its pre-crisis level. Hence, in the Korea's case, high volatility cannot be explained by the impact of financial crisis. Not only that, the fact that such expansion is seen in every industrial sector indicates that this phenomenon cannot be explained by the composition change of industries alone. An undergoing study shows that with a rapid spread of globalization, industries fiercely competing with China experience more volatility. Such increased volatility tends to contract investment, and since the crisis the impact of volatility on investment has slightly increased. It is noteworthy that this study only includes a part of 'uncertainty' that could be measured statistically. For instance, the profitability volatility indicator used in this study is unable to reflect all the effects that the tacit reduction of protection by the government or regulations might have made. So, the result here also indicates that other 'uncertain' factors not mentioned in this study may have served to contract investment sentiment. It would be impossible for policies to completely remove uncertainties measured by profitability volatility, but at least it is necessary to put effort to reduce the macroeconomic volatility in the future economic management. Stabilized macroeconomic management may not be enough to diminish all volatility that occurs within each company, but it would make a meaningful contribution in encouraging investment.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.135-147
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• 2012

The benefit of traffic information on variable message sign can be divided into two. At the public level, the benefit of ATIS is the travel time saving, which is not only induced from ATIS, but also mixed with that of ATMS. In the economic appraisal of ITS, the benefit of ATIS has so far been regarded as the derived benefit from ATMS. At the user level, the benefit of ATIS is reduced driver uncertainty through the forward traffic status information. User can benefit from the information on VMS and therefore may have the willingness to pay for it. Recently attempt to qualify the value of information on VMS was increased, but there was a danger of distorting or over-estimates of the ATIS benefit because the related studies didn't consider the time-dependent attributes of traffic information and provided the single value. Estimates of the time-varying value should be needed for a rigorous economic appraisal of ATIS. In this study, we varied the value of information on VMS according to peak and non peak trip and verified the hypothesis that time-varying of value was statistically significant.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.6 s.84
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• pp.81-89
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• 2005

Real-time bus arrival information within the Bus Information System (BIS) is an invaluable resource for users that demand accurate and up-to-date bus headway information while waiting at a bus stop. The associated benefits of such a system come in two folds, that is to 1) resolve the psychological uncertainty caused by the lack of real-time bus arrival information and 2) empower the user waiting at bus stops with the ability to reliably coordinate various tasks and errands, such as a quick trip into a convenience store or restroom without fear of missing a bus pick-up. This paper discusses the appropriate methodology with which to measure the economic value of reliable bus arrival information, with particular emphasis on the psychological uncertainty in users associated with the lack of real-time headway information at bus stops. Data regarding bus transit users' willingness to pay for such a service is obtained through questionnaire surveys, and the Contingent Valuation Method is used to analyze and derive the associated economic value. Our findings indicate the monetary value associated with a real-time bus arrival information system is approximately 132.5 won/min at the 0.3 significance level.