• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic uncertainty

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Methodology to Decide Optimum Replacement Term for Components of Nuclear Power Plants (원전 기기의 최적교체시기 결정방법)

  • 문호림;장창희;박준현;정일석
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.257-267
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    • 2000
  • Mostly, the economic analyses for replacement of major components of nuclear power Plants(NPPs) have been performed in deterministic ways. However, the analysis results are more or less affected by the uncertainties associated with input variables. Therefore, it is desirable to use a probabilistic economic analysis method to properly consider uncertainty of real problem. In this paper, the probabilistic economic analysis method and decision analysis technique are briefly described. The probabilistic economy analysis method using decision analysis will provide efficient and accurate way of economic analysis for the repair and/or replace mai or components of NPPs.

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Impact of Selective Health Benefit on Medical Expenditure and Provider Behavior: Case of Gastric Cancer Surgery (선별급여 도입이 위암수술의 건강보험 진료비 및 진료행태에 미치는 영향)

  • Cho, Su-Jin;Ko, Jung-Ae;Choi, Yeonmi
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2016
  • Background: Selective health benefit was introduced for decreasing economic burden of patients. Medical devices with economic uncertainty have been covered as selective health benefit by National Health Insurance since December 2013. We aimed to analyze impact of selective health benefit to medical expenditure and provider behavior focused on electrosurgery (ultrasonic shears, electrothermal bipolar vessel sealers) for gastric cancer patients covered since December 2014. Methods: We used the National Health Insurance claims data of 2,698 patients underwent gastric cancer surgery between August 2014 and March 2015. Medical cost and patient sharing per inpatient day were analyzed to verify that covering electrosurgery increased medical expenditure and changed provider behavior from open surgery to endoscopic or laparoscopic surgery. Additionally, we analyzed the claim rate of medical device or goods relating gastric endoscopic and laparoscopic surgery. Results: Medical cost and patient sharing per inpatient day were increased after covering electosurgery as selective health benefit (39,724/1,421 won). However, there were no medical expenditure increases after adjusting claim of electosurgery and patient sharing was decreased 1,057 won especially. The coverage of selective health benefit did not increase the claim rate of medical device or goods related endoscopic or laparoscopic surgery, either. Conclusion: Covering electosurgery decreased patient economic burden and did not change of provider behavior. Expanding selective health benefit is needed to decrease economic burden of severe patients. Further study should evaluate the long term effect with accumulated data.

A Study on the Substantial impact of US high rate tariff policy on the Korean companies -Based on analysis of Article 301 of the US Trade Law -

  • Nam, Seon Mo
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.63-68
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the United States and China have declared a 25% retaliatory tariff for the partner country products of 50 billion dollar scale. "Trade war" is getting full swing. Such conflicts between economic powers may spread to Japan like the domino phenomenon following the EU (European Union) and become bigger in the global trade war. As a result, Korea has an economic system with a high degree of external dependence, and there is an expert's analysis that it will become the largest victim of the global trade war. If the WTO Dispute Settlement Authority approves this US 301 retaliation measure in the same way as the past case (US-EU hormone-treated beef imports), the United States will not import any Chinese imported products Chinese products) can be imposed. If the US launches a special 301 or super 301, which is stronger than the regular 301, then China is very likely to enforce US retaliation against it, and the trade war between the two countries could become a reality. This phenomenon is likely to have a negative impact on Korean companies. In particular, Korea, which is highly reliant on intermediate goods exports to China, is expected to suffer a great deal of damage. Therefore, Korea needs flexible response at home and abroad, it is necessary to enhance the autonomy of companies and protect export industries. Adjusting corporate tax rate as well as domestic industry height will be one way. The long-term (21 months) trade war between the United States and China has resulted in economic uncertainty. The resulting damage must be compensated. It is necessary to prepare the compensation through the economic council between countries. In the future, the punitive damage compensation system should be introduced.

Economic Feasibility Analysis for Introducing Integrated Management System for Supporting Underground Construction (지하구조물건설 현장지원 통합관리시스템 도입을 위한 경제적 타당성 분석)

  • Baek, Hyeon Gi;Jang, Yong Gu;Seo, Jong Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.513-522
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    • 2010
  • Underground construction for traffic networks, complexes, and storage facilities has risen as an effective land use plan for dealing with emerging problems such as overcrowded urban cities and traffic jams. This paper performed an economic feasibility analysis of the development of the integrated field management system which provides field workers and managers with 3D-based location tracking and clear communication during underground construction works. To conduct the analysis, processes and problems of field management for underground construction were analyzed and deduction in accidents and field management costs and productivity improvement were estimated as expected benefits. Based on computed benefits and costs, an economic analysis was conducted using Benefit/Cost ratio(B/C), Net Present Value(NPV), and Internal Rate of Return(IRR) and then sensitivity analysis was performed to cope with the uncertainty of assumed variables.

A Study on Determinants of Venture Capital Investments During Economic Booms and Busts (경제 호황과 후퇴의 시기에 벤처캐피탈 투자 의사결정요인 비교연구)

  • Kim, Jinsoo;Park, Ji-Hoon;Lee, Sang-Myung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2024
  • Recently, venture capital investment has been shrinking globally due to high interest rates and economic slowdown. Korea is no exception. Due to the downturn in the M&A and public markets, increasing economic uncertainty, and the aftermath of corporate bankruptcies, venture capitalists are facing many difficulties in raising funds. In the changed economic environment, the investment decision factors of venture capitalists have also changed. However, studies on VCs' investment decisions have focused on the general economic environment. This study examines how VCs' investment decision-making factors change during economic recessions and booms. To this end, we interviewed active investors who have experienced both economic recessions and booms to compare how VCs' investment decision factors change: 1) personal characteristics of founders, 2) experience of founders, 3) product/service, 4) market, 5) financial situation, 6) contract terms and 7) venture capital co-investment. The results showed that founder's personal characteristics, experience, and product/service were more important during the economic recession. Market is slightly more important during economic booms. The importance of financial situation and investment conditions increased sharply during the recession compared to the boom. Finally, venture capital co-investment did not differ significantly between recessions and booms. By understanding the investment decision-making factors of venture capitalists in the recent difficult venture investment environment, this study aims to help startups raise funds and survive in a difficult market.

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Declining Fixed Investment and Increasing Financial Investment of Korean Corporations

  • Kim, Daehwan;Kwon, Sunhee;Ryou, Jai-Won
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.353-379
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    • 2019
  • This paper aims to determine factors causing the stagnation of Korean firms' fixed investment after the global financial crisis, using panel data for the period of 1999-2016. Fixed investment remained sensitive to cash flow and Tobin's q although their effects decreased after the global financial crisis. A decreasing trend of cash flow and an increase in Tobin's q since the early 2000's imply that the worsening cash flow was a major factor behind the sluggish investment after the crisis. Meanwhile, debt-equity ratio remained significant for non-chaebol affiliated firms, reflecting disparity in access to external financing. Volatility of stock returns also became insignificant after the crisis, casting doubt on the argument that uncertainty was a major factor contributing to the decline of fixed investment. Analysis of financial investment confirmed the significant effect of cash flow, larger than that on financial investment than on fixed investment. In particular, debt repayment and other financial investment, except share repurchase, were sensitive to cash flow. However, the substitution of fixed investment by financial investment is a consequence, rather than a cause of declining fixed investment.

Economic Comparison of Wind Power Curtailment and ESS Operation for Mitigating Wind Power Forecasting Error (풍력발전 출력 예측오차 완화를 위한 출력제한운전과 ESS운전의 경제성 비교)

  • Wi, Young-Min;Jo, Hyung-Chul;Lee, Jaehee
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.67 no.2
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    • pp.158-164
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    • 2018
  • Wind power forecast is critical for efficient power system operation. However, wind power has high forecasting errors due to uncertainty caused by the climate change. These forecasting errors can have an adverse impact on the power system operation. In order to mitigate the issues caused by the wind power forecasting error, wind power curtailment and energy storage system (ESS) can be introduced in the power system. These methods can affect the economics of wind power resources. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the economics of the methods for mitigating the wind power forecasting error. This paper attempts to analyze the economics of wind power curtailment and ESS operation for mitigating wind power forecasting error. Numerical simulation results are presented to show the economic impact of wind power curtailment and ESS operation.

A Study of the Resolution Mechanism for Investment Disputes between China and Taiwan (중국과 대만 간 투자분쟁해결제도에 관한 연구)

  • Ha, Hyun-Soo
    • Journal of Arbitration Studies
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.31-52
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    • 2012
  • Although political uncertainty exists between China and Taiwan, the two countries have been expanding their economic exchange since the 1980s. That economic exchange is not limited to trade, and its investment segment is constantly expanding. The investment was one-sided by Taiwan in the past, but since a change in policy by the Taiwan government in 2009, Chinese capital is able to flow into Taiwan for direct investment. These kinds of policy changes related to investment between the two countries require follow-up actions such as profit protection for investors, elimination of investment limitations, simplification of investment procedures, and establishment of an investment dispute resolution system. The main topic of this study is the resolution mechanism for investment disputes between China and Taiwan. At present, an individual investment dispute between two countries is settled according to each country's own regulations for dispute resolution. However, these two countries have not prepared dispute resolution regulations related to cases of investment disputes between Chinese or Taiwanese investors and the Chinese or Taiwanese government, or between the Chinese government and the Taiwanese government. Moreover, they do not have any agreements related to investment disputes. Therefore, in this paper, I enumerate the regulations related to investment dispute resolution between China and Taiwan, and then I point out the problems and suggest solutions for improvement. Also, through this study, I would like to contribute to establishing and implementing an investment dispute resolution mechanism between South Korea and North Korea.

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A Study on the Effect of Social Commerce's Trust-Building on Intention of Continuous Use (소셜커머스 신뢰 형성이 지속적 이용의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, In-Ho;Kim, Jin-Soo
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2016
  • Social commerce (s-commerce) is a subset of e-commerce and uses social media for social interactions. Although s-commerce has been rapidly growing, disputes between some s-commerce firms and their consumers often occur over issues such as poor customer services, incorrect product information, and late refunds. In order for s-commerce to continuously grow, s-commerce firms need to build consumer-trust in their transaction process to minimize their consumers' uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between the multidimensional trust (ability, integrity, benevolence) and the intention of continuous use of s-commerce. Moreover, this study presents antecedent factors needed for trust-building by applying the characteristics of s-commerce, and verifies the relations between the variables. We test and validate the research model and related hypotheses using structural equation modeling based on a survey done on 428 people who have previous experience with s-commerce. The result shows that trust has positive effect on the intention of continuous use, and verifies the necessity of the antecedent factors (social presence, assurance, informativeness, economic feasibility, and seller reputation) for trust-building. This study provides strategy for the continuous growth of s-commerce, and suggests theoretical implication that explains the relationship between the characteristics of s-commerce and consumers.

Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export & Import Container Volumes in Korea (환율변동성이 우리나라 컨테이너 수출입 물동량에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • AHN, Kyung-Ae
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.75
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    • pp.95-116
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    • 2017
  • The global financial crisis has slowed overall growth in the global economy. In addition, uncertainty is increasing in the world economy due to the Trade protectionism, sluggish world trade, and a rise in the rate of interest caused by expansion of fiscal spending by major countries. In this study, we analyzed various factors affecting the container import and export volume, which has a high correlation with export and import of commodities in international trade. In particular, we will examine how exchange rate fluctuations and domestic and overseas economic conditions affect container imports and exports. For the empirical analysis, monthly time series data were used from January 2000 to January 2017. We use the Error Correction Model (VECM) for the empirical analysis and the GARCH model for the exchange rate fluctuation. As a result, container export and import volume had a negative relationship with exchange rate and exchange rate volatility, which had a positive effect on domestic and international economic conditions. However, the effects are different before and after the financial crisis.

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