• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic cycle

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Problems and Improvements of Urban-to-rural Migration Policy in Gyeongbuk Province (경상북도 귀농·귀촌정책의 문제점과 개선방안)

  • Lee, Chul Woo;Park, Soon Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.659-675
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    • 2015
  • This study explores the status, characteristics and problems of urban-to-rural migration policy in Gyeongbuk Province, and suggests some improvements based on this analysis. Gyeongbuk Province enacted local ordinances related to urban-to-rural migration for the first time in Korea, and has expanded the area of its own projects in addition to the central government's support projects. Consequently, the degree of satisfaction for the support projects in Gyeongbuk Province is higher than in other provinces. Problems of the support projects for urban-to-rural migration are the lack of role sharing between central and lower level local government, and the lack of connectivity among the relevant departments; the non-reflection of regional characteristics and attributes of urban-to-rural migrants (household); and the insufficient satisfaction of policy demands by non-agricultural urban-to-rural migrants. Improvements for these problems include establishing governance that involves urban-to-rural migrants in addition to the existing policy actors, and institutionalizing the project to properly embed this governance in the region. In addition to economic and physical support, diverse programs based on the adaptive cycle, 'non-agricultural rural jobs' for nonagricultural urban-to-rural migrants, and support programs for professional competency enhancement contributing to rural communities should be developed.

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Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Modeling by Weighted Average Defuzzification Based on NEWFM (NEWFM 기반 가중평균 역퍼지화에 의한 비선형 시계열 예측 모델링)

  • Chai, Soo-Han;Lim, Joon-Shik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.563-568
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents a methodology for predicting nonlinear time series based on the neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions (NEWFM). The degree of classification intensity is obtained by bounded sum of weighted fuzzy membership functions extracted by NEWFM, then weighted average defuzzification is used for predicting nonlinear time series. The experimental results demonstrate that NEWFM has the classification capability of 92.22% against the target class of GDP. The time series created by NEWFM model has a relatively close approximation to the GDP which is a typical business cycle indicator, and has been proved to be a useful indicator which has the turning point forecasting capability of average 12 months in the peak point and average 6 months in the trough point during 5th to 8th cyclical period. In addition, NEWFM measures the efficiency of the economic indexes by the feature selection and enables the users to forecast with reduced numbers of 7 among 10 leading indexes while improving the classification rate from 90% to 92.22%.

Analysis of Correlation between Construction Business and Insolvency of Construction Company (건설경기와 건설업체 부실화 간의 관계성 분석)

  • Seo, Jeong-Bum;Lee, Sang-Hyo;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2013
  • The changes in construction business have impact on overall operation of construction companies. Poor business of construction companies following a s low industrial cycle could have broader implications and influences on the industry. Since a construction project involves various stakeholders including public organizations, financial institutions and households, a downturn in construction industry might lead to significant economic loss. In this regard, it is meaningful to examine the relationship between changes in construction business cycles and insolvency of construction companies. This study conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between construction business cycles and how much they affect operation of construction companies. To this end, KMV model was used to estimate probability of bankruptcy, which represents business condition of a construction company. To examine construction business cycles, investment amount for different construction types-residential, non-residential, and construction work-was used as a variable. Based on the investment amount, VECM was applied and the analysis results suggested that construction companies should put priority on diversifying project portfolio. In addition, it was shown that once a construction company becomes unstable in business operation, it is hard to recover even when the market condition turns for the better. This suggests that, to improve business operation of a construction company, internal capacity-building is as important as the market condition and other external circumstances.

Nepotism or Networking?: The Effectiveness of Social Networks in the Labor Market ('연줄'인가, '연결'인가?: 인적 네트워크의 노동시장 효과 분석)

  • KIM, Young Chul
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.133-186
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    • 2012
  • This paper analyzes the effectiveness of social networks in finding jobs and estimates the value of job search network using the Korean Laber and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) dataset and utilizing the Difference-in-Difference Propensity Score Matching (PSM) methodology (Heckman et al., 1997). While the wide use of social networks in the Korean labor market is often perceived as 'nepotism,' this study confirms that social networks, by serving as an effective information transmitter between job search and recruitment, make a significant contribution to improving the adequacy of job matching in the domestic labor market. In order to verify the effectiveness of using social networks for getting jobs, this study looks into the cases of labor turnover using social networks and also not using it. In the aspect of individual satisfaction improvement relating to workplace and job duties, both cases of turnover turn out to experience an increased satisfaction by 2~3 points (on a 100-score scale). Meanwhile, as for the educational and technical adequacy improvement, no positive effects are found in the case of turnover without social networks, whereas the educational and technical adequacy improvement turns out to increase by 2.13 and 2.52 points, respectively, in the case of turnover using social networks. The effect of income increase through turnover using social networks registered 40,074 Korean won per month (as of 2010), which can be considered as the result from the improved educational and technical adequacy. Of all things being considered, the value of job search network per wage worker in the Korean society is estimated to be 18.72 million won in terms of life-cycle wage improvement, and 758.2 scores in terms of the improvement of working life satisfaction. Provided that the cash value of satisfaction score 1 is equivalent to 'n' times 10,000 won, the aggregate value of job search network is estimated to be 18.72+7.582n million won, which means the total amount of costs that a wage worker in the Korean society willingly pays to maintain and manage job networks for lifetime.

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Government Support for Animation as Audiovisual Policy (방송영상 콘텐츠로서의 애니메이션 지원제도 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Jae
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.39
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    • pp.27-58
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    • 2015
  • The crisis in profit and funding for animation is in evidence around the world. The change in media environment has forced broadcasting advertising revenue down and animation viewers spread out. Now, animation players in the strongest position are either the US major studios, or producers benefiting from domestic support schemes. Government support is available in many countries because many governments believe that support for domestic animation carries both economic and cultural benefits. This paper is designed to suggest new policy schemes for Korean animation industry. The new paradigm of animation policy needs a new perspective on content industry as a whole, not centered on the animation itself. The researchers on public policy for culture, audiovisual and content industry argued that the government should, (i) play the role of facilitator for virtuous cycle of industry value chain, (ii) provide fiscal support through automatic and selective schemes, (iii) provide tax benefit to strengthen the competitiveness of industry, and (iv) enforce the broadcasters to contribute to domestic programming and financing. Comparative analysis on French and Canadian audiovisual policy supports such arguments, and animation industry of two countries are enjoying the high audience ratings and sustainable production volume. From the analysis, this paper suggests the new government schemes for Korean animation industry, which are, (i) securing the public funding for fiscal support, (ii) introduction of automatic production support, (iii) modification of broadcasting quota, (iv) broadcaster's performance envelope and production quota, and (v) tax benefit as indirect support.

How sun spot activity affects on positioning accuracy?: Case study of solar storm (태양 흑점활동이 측위오차에 미치는 영향: 태양폭풍 사례연구)

  • Yoo, Yun-Ja;Cho, Deuk-Jae;Park, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.477-482
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    • 2011
  • Solar flares have the 11-year cycle and release a large energy which may produce coronal mass ejections (CME). The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) predicted that the sun spot activity will be maximized in 2013-2014. A strong solar flare can cause the disturbance of global positioning system including various communication of TV, radio broadcasting. The actual solar storm in 1989 caused power outages in Canada during 9 hours and about 600 million people had experienced a blackout. Such a solar storm can shorten the GPS satellite's life span about 5 to 10 years which can resulted in economic loss considering the amount of multi-billion won. This paper analyzed the influence of recent X-class solar storm occurred on 15th of February about 10:45 this year that was reached Korea (Bohyun observatory) on 18th of February about 10:30 (01:30 - UTC), and compared with the data before and after a week. The proton data of 18th of February considered that the solar storm reached on earth showed a fluctuation compared to the data before and after a week. The positioning results at Daejeon and Seoul of Korea also showed higher positioning error compared to the data before and after a week results.

Development of Dry Process Caisson Method for Maintenance of Submerged Harbor Structure (수중 항만구조물의 유지보수를 위한 건식 케이슨 공법 개발)

  • Lee Joong-Woo;Oh Dong-Hoon;Kwak Seung-Kyu;Kim Sung-Tae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2006.06b
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    • pp.163-170
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    • 2006
  • Together with the trend of enhancement in domestic industrial development and economic progress due to import and export, the demand for construction of the roads, bridges, especially port facilities, and several coastal protection and ocean structures is increasing rapidly. MOMAF of Korean Government is driving construction of 9 new ports and renovation of the existing fishery ports. Among these structures most of bridge base, wharves, dolphins, quays, and jetties are being newly built of steel or concrete pile. As the base, supporting bulkheads, and piles are underwater after construction, it is difficult to figure out the status of structures and not enough to get maintenance and strengthen the structures. Every year, moreover, these works suck the government budget due to higher incomplete maintenance expense for protection from corrosions of structures and increased underwater construction period. For the purpose of cutting down the expense of government budget, it is necessary to extend the life cycle of the existing structures. Therefore, we developed a new method for maintenance of submerged structures near the waterline by allowing dry work environment with the floating caisson. The method shows easy to move around the working area and handle. It also showed not only a significant reduction maintenance expenses and time for anti-corrosion work but also better protection. This will be a milestone to reduce the maintenance and construction expenses for the shore and water structures.

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A Review on Controlling Technology of Cholesterol Contents in Eggs and Egg Products (계란의 콜레스테롤 함량 조절 기술에 관한 고찰)

  • 이복희;유익종;강통삼
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.217-231
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    • 1993
  • Due to the increased awareness on the relationship between high cholesterol intake and cardiovascular disease, the development of low cholesterol eggs and egg products are necessary at the present time. Largely, two approaches are possible to develop low cholesterol eggs. The first approach is the production of low cholesterol eggs by altering feeds of layers, by administering drugs, by genetic selection of strains and breeds, and by management of laying cycle, age and egg size. The second approach is to manufacture low cholesterol eggs technically treated with adsorbant, solvent, enzyme, edible oil and supercritical fluid. Both approaches have their own pros and cons, respectively, as far as the cholesterol removal rates, the easeness of process, and the economic reasons are concerned. The low cholesterol egg production is quite labor-intensive and has relatively low cholesterol removal rate(30∼50% ) compared to that of chemically treated eggs. On the other hand, the low cholesterol eggs treated with chemicals have a very high cholesterol removal rate (80∼90%) but some of the methods are not completely safe as food processing purposes due to the residual chemicals and the sensory quality is not as good as the low cholesterol eggs without chemical treatment. Therefore, further studies must be conducted to improve the sensory quality of low cholesterol eggs and to eliminate fear about the harmfulness using low cholesterol eggs.

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Water Supply forecast Using Multiple ARMA Model Based on the Analysis of Water Consumption Mode with Wavelet Transform. (Wavelet Transform을 이용한 물수요량의 특성분석 및 다원 ARMA모형을 통한 물수요량예측)

  • Jo, Yong-Jun;Kim, Jong-Mun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.317-326
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    • 1998
  • Water consumption characteristics on the northern part of Seoul were analyzed using wavelet transform with a base function of Coiflets 5. It turns out that long term evolution mode detected at 212 scale in 1995 was in a shape of hyperbolic tangent over the entire period due to the development of Sanggae resident site. Furthermore, there was seasonal water demand having something to do with economic cycle which reached its peak at the ends of June and December. The amount of this additional consumption was about $1,700\;\textrm{cm}^3/hr$ on June and $500\;\textrm{cm}^3/hr$ on December. It was also shown that the periods of energy containing sinusoidal component were 3.13 day, 33.33 hr, 23.98 hr and 12 hr, respectively, and the amplitude of 23.98 hr component was the most humongous. The components of relatively short frequency detected at $2^i$[i = 1,2,…12] scale were following Gaussian PDF. The most reliable predictive models are multiple AR[32,16,23] and ARMA[20, 16, 10, 23] which the input of temperature from the view point of minimized predictive error, mutual independence or residuals and the availableness of reliable meteorological data. The predicted values of water supply were quite consistent with the measured data which cast a possibility of the deployment of the predictive model developed in this study for the optimal management of water supply facilities.

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Estimation of Disaster Prevention Target Rainfall according to Urban Disaster Prevention Performance (도시방재성능에 따른 방재성능목표 강우량 산정 연구)

  • Jeong, Min-Su;Oak, Young-Suk;Lee, Young-Kune;Lee, Young-Sub;Park, Mi-Ri;Lee, Chul-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 2017
  • The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) presented the disaster prevention performance target rainfall (DPPTR) for disaster prevention. The estimation criteria for DPPTR is a 10 year cycle. On the other hand, the target rainfall recalculated every 10 years is difficult to reflect the current change in rainfall on climate change. In this study, the probability of precipitation using the recent rainfall data was prepared and the weights according to socio-economic criteria reflecting the urban characteristics and adjusted probability rainfall criteria were applied to the results. The difference between the existing target rainfall and recalculated result was compared. The input data for the estimated probability rainfall was selected from 6 points located in the rainfall observing station of Chungcheongnam-do, Daejeon region. As a result of the estimation, in the case of upward probability precipitation weight, some similar areas were observed. On the other hand, there were a few cases of upward or downward changes within 10 mm. Considering the rainfall variability and uncertainty due to climate change, the existing target rainfall does not present the condition properly. Therefore, hydrological designers need to calculate the target rainfall, reflecting the present condition.