• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic cycle

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Features and Implications of 'New Northeast Phenomenon' in China's New Normal Period (中国经济新常态下的 '新东北现象': 特征与含意)

  • Yoo, Eunha
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.259-282
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    • 2022
  • This article examines features and implications of 'new northeast phenomenon' in China's new normal period. Different from previous studies with economy as a single factor, this paper regards the northeast phenomenon as not an single economic phenomenon but a compound socio economic phenomenon that economic, demographic and financial issues are linked together. This study finds that since 2014 decline of economic growth, deepening of population decline and brain drain, accelerated aging, the increase in fiscal deficit and a surge in social security spending, these phenomena occur simultaneously and influence each other, forming a vicious cycle in northeast China, and also finds that the difficulty of 'new northeast phenomenon' lies in this compound features. If so, what are the implications of 'new northeast phenomenon's' these features for China as a whole? This study proposes two points. First, based on the recent changes in some relevant situations in China, northeast region can be regarded as a microcosm of China, northeast phenomenon is likely to spread to other regions of China in the near future, it will become a common phenomenon all over China. Second, the emergence of the 'new northeast phenomenon' in the new normal period requires deep reflection and rethinking about the fundamental effect of the regional development strategies, such as 'The Development of the Western Region', 'The Rise of Central China', 'The revitalization of the Northeast', implemented since the reform and development. The 'new northeast phenomenon' has become one of the most urgent problems to be solved by the Chinese government, if the solution is successful, it can be a very useful direction for reconstructing regional development strategies in contemporary China.

Self-Consumption Solar PV Economic Rate Analysis for RE100 Companies in Korea (한국 RE100 기업의 자가소비 태양광 발전 경제적 비율 분석)

  • Jong Yi Lee;Kyung Nam Kim
    • Current Photovoltaic Research
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.134-143
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    • 2023
  • Efforts are being made to respond to global warming. Interest in and demand for the private sector-led RE100 campaign is also increasing. Self-built solar power generation, one of the implementation tools for RE100, is not expanding. However, it can be an economical means of implementation in the long run. In this study, we intend to analyze the impact on the optimal ratio of self-solar power generation using HOMER simulation. OPR defines the optimal solar power generation ratio and looks into what changes there are in the optimal solar power ratio when self-power consumption increases and external power purchase price changes. As a result, the optimal rate of self-solar power generation has a low impact even if self-power consumption increases. As the external power unit price increases, the optimal ratio increases, and at a power unit price of 100 KRW/kWh, OPR is 24%; at 200 KRW/kWh OPR is 31%; and at 300 KRW/kWh OPR is 34%. This shows that the electricity price replaced during the life cycle has a high impact on the economic feasibility of solar power generation. However, when the external power unit price reached a certain level, the increase in OPR decreased. This shows that it is difficult for domestic companies to achieve RE100 based on the economic feasibility of solar energy alone. Therefore, efforts are needed to supply renewable energy in the public sector.

The Analysis of Factors which Affect Business Survey Index Using Regression Trees (회귀나무를 이용한 기업경기실사지수의 영향요인 분석)

  • Chang, Young-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2010
  • Business entrepreneurs reflect their views of domestic and foreign economic activities on their operation for the growth of their business. The decision, forecasting, and planning based on their economic sentiment affect business operation such as production, investment, and hiring and consequently affect condition of national economy. Business survey index(BSI) is compiled to get the information of business entrepreneurs' economic sentiment for the analysis of business condition. BSI has been used as an important variable in the short-term forecasting models for business cycle analysis, especially during the the period of extreme business fluctuations. Recent financial crisis has arised extreme business fluctuations similar to those caused by currency crisis at the end of 1997, and brought back the importance of BSI as a variable for the economic forecasting. In this paper, the meaning of BSI as an economic sentiment index is reviewed and a GUIDE regression tree is constructed to find out the factors which affect on BSI. The result shows that the variables related to the stability of financial market such as kospi index(Korea composite stock price index) and exchange rate as well as manufacturing operation ratio and consumer goods sales are main factors which affect business entrepreneurs' economic sentiment.

A Convergence study on the happiness and participating desire of economic activity among elderly living alone (독거노인의 행복과 경제활동의 참여욕구에 대한 융합 연구)

  • Lee, Byunglim;Kim, Doo Ree;Lim, Hyo Nam;Kim, Kwang-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.9 no.8
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2018
  • The study focuses on the relationship between the desire for economic activity and happiness among the elderly living alone. Qualitative research was conducted as a research method. Research participants were either go to the elderly community wellness center or volunteer at the center. The results were: First, it turned out that enjoying different programs and socializing with others at the community wellness center and the health of family were the factors of happiness to the elderly living alone. Second, the difference on the desire on economic activity among the elderly living alone was significant. Three groups could be categorized: the elderly who wants economic income through jobs, others who were wealthy, and others who do not struggle with their finance but wanted to continue their economic activity through part-time jobs. In average, the desire for economic activity was high but they wanted 2 - 3 hours of labor per day, considering their physical condition. In case of income, there were two groups, who desperately wants more income, and others who feel their income is sufficient. This study suggested a virtuous cycle of government support policies to the elderly living alone in economic and psychological perspectives.

The Value-Relevance of Accruals in Corporate Life-Cycle Stage (기업수명주기별 발생액의 가치 관련성에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Heon-Seob
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.23-44
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    • 2010
  • This study examines the value-relevance of accruals and discretionary accruals. Also, by examining the effects of the corporate life-cycle on these relationship, this study is able to provide evidence of the value-relevance of accruals and discretionary accruals measures in the economic context of life-cycle theory. This study uses results based on life-cycle classification methods developed by Anthony and Ramesh(1992), adjust Jones model and Dechow Dechev(2002) model. We classify firms using individuals variables(sales growth, capital expenditure growth, employee growth) and then use a composite score obtained from all variables for classification. Our sample consists of 272 firms listed in the Korean Stock Exchange during 14 years(1996-2009). Our final sample for regression variables consists of 2,448 firm-year observations. This evidence implies that the value-relevance of accruals and discretionary accruals in the growth and mature stage can have positive impact on the price but in the decline the value-relevance of accruals and discretionary accruals can have negative impact on the price. The results mean that discretionary accruals communicate managements' private information in the growth stage, but. earnings management in the decline stage. The results of this study suggest that corporate life cycle stages influence the value-relevance of accruals and discretionary accruals measures.

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Models of Database Assets Valuation and their Life-cycle Determination (데이터베이스 자산 가치평가 모형과 수명주기 결정)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Byun, Jeongeun;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.676-693
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    • 2016
  • Although the methodology and models to assess the economic value of technology assets such as patents are being presented in various ways, there does not exist a structured assessment model which enables to objectively assess a database property's value, and thus there is a need to enhance the application feasibility of practical purposes such as licensing of DB assets, commercialization transfer, security, etc., through the establishment of the valuation model and the life-cycle decision logic. In this study, during the valuation process of DB assets, the size of customer demand group expected and the amount of demand, the size and importance of data sets, the approximate degree of database' contribution to the sales performance of a company, the life-cycle of database assets, etc. will be analyzed whether they are appropriate as input variables or not. As for most of DB assets, due to irregular updates there are hardly cases their life-cycle expires, and thus software package's persisting period, ie. 5 years, is often considered the standard. We herein propose the life-cycle estimation logic and valuation models of DB assets based on the concept of half life for DB usage frequency under the condition that DB assets' value decays and there occurs no data update over time.

Comparative Evaluation of Hydrological Cycle in South and North Korea using a Land Surface Model (지표수문해석모형을 이용한 남북한 수문순환 비교 평가)

  • Song, Sung-uk;Lee, Jinwook;Cho, Eunsaem;Yoo, Chulsang
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.16-29
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    • 2017
  • It is known that large-scale deforestation has occurred in North Korea due to economic failures since the 1990s, and this is expected to greatly change the characteristics of the hydrological cycle. In this study, hydrological cycle simulation was carried out for the period of about 30 years from 1981 to 2013 for the entire Korean peninsula using the VIC model, a land surface hydrology model. The simulation results are summarized as follow. First, the runoff ratio is 55%~70% in South Korea and 38~56% in North Korea. In particular, it is worth noting that despite the small runoff ratio, the variation is about 28% larger than the South Korea's 15%. The rate of evapotranspiration was larger than that of South Korea. That is, the rate of evapotranspiration in South Korea is 20~35% and in North Korea it is 25~46%. However, the rate of change was 21% in the case of North Korea and slightly larger than 15% in South Korea. Third, South Korea has an average of 34% in soil moisture and 27% in North Korea. However, unlike the simulated results of the runoff ratio and the evapotranspiration rate, the difference in the variation of soil moisture in South Korea and North Korea over the entire period was similar with 8%. As a result, we can confirm that the difference of hydrological cycle characteristics between South Korea and North Korea has been increased since the 1990s, when the forest destruction of North Korea became serious. In the case of South Korea, there is little difference in the hydrological cycle characteristics. In North Korea, however, there is a distinct difference, which is also a result reflecting the difference in the effects of forest destruction.

A Comparison Analysis of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of Pumps - In the Focus on Comparison of Excellent and General Products in Water Industry - (Pump의 생애주기 비용(LCC) 비교 분석 - 물산업 우수제품과 일반제품의 비교를 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Woopyung;Choi, Yong;Jeon, Si Young;Kim, Jinho;Kang, Seongmi
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.66-73
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    • 2022
  • In order to induce users to purchase excellent products in the water industry that satisfy the technical standards of excellent products, in this study, it is to present the advantages of the cost aspect of the pumps as the objective basis. It will be to promote technology development of domestic water companies and to create a virtuous cycle structure in the water industry. In order to present an objective basis for the merits in terms of cost, an economic evaluation was conducted through life cycle cost analysis. For the LCC analysis, initial cost (pump cost and installation cost), operation cost (energy cost and maintenance cost) and demolition cost (disposal cost and residual value) are searched and calculated. As the results of comparison on two capacity of pumps, the energy cost of the excellent pump is 212 million KRW lower than the that of general pump in the large pump. The cost of excellent pump was 17 million KRW lower than that of general pump in small capacity pump. As the results of sensibility test, if the product is developed in the direction of improving pump efficiency and increasing the replacement cycle of consumables, it is predicted that the effect on LCC will be large.

The Hollowing-Out of Middle-Skill Jobs and Its Impact on Jobless Recoveries in Korea (중숙련(middle-skill) 일자리의 감소가 고용 없는 경기회복에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Nam Ju
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.53-95
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    • 2015
  • This paper first constructs an occupation code-skill match for the Korean labor market by following Autor-Dorn classification on the tasks framework. Over the last 34 years, middle-skill jobs have vanished enormously, while high-skill and low-skill jobs have both increased. Also, jobs have polarized more rapidly in recessions and changed uniquely by pushing old workers into middle and low-skilled jobs and the inter-sector reallocation of workers. Furthermore, jobless recoveries in the recent business cycle could have been alleviated considerably if job polarization had been mitigated.

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Reinterpretation of Okun's law on Korean Economy (오쿤의 법칙(Okun's law)에 대한 재해석)

  • Yoo, Gyeongjoon;Ryu, Deockhyun
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.89-109
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    • 2012
  • This paper evaluate the robustness of the Okun relationship based on Korean data for 1979~2008. For estimating a natural unemployment rate, this study uses time series econometric methodologies. This paper finds some interesting results; first of all, a bench mark estimates of Okun's ${\beta}$ range from 2 to 4 with different methodologies. This is a little bit higher scale than that of Lee(2000)'s results, which estimated the Okun's coefficient on the advanced countries' 1955~1996. Secondly, we test an asymmetric behavior of unemployment rate on business cycle. But the results are mixed. Finally we cannot find the evidence of structural break for the periods of 1979~80 and 1997~98 crises.

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