• Title/Summary/Keyword: economic calculation

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A Study on Web-based Technology Valuation System (웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, Sang-Gook;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2017
  • Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.

Decision Making on the Non surgical, Surgical Treatment on Chronic Adult Periodontitis (만성 성인성 치주염 치료시 비외과적, 외과적 방법에 대한 의사결정)

  • Song, Si-Eun;Li, Seung-Won;Cho, Kyoo-Sung;Chai, Jung-Kiu;Kim, Chong-Kwan
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.645-660
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    • 1998
  • The purpose of this study was to make and ascertain a decision making process on the base of patient-oriented utilitarianism in the treatment of patients of chronic adult periodontitis. Fifty subjects were chosen in Yonsei Dental hospital and the other fifty were chosen in Severance dental hospital according to the selection criteria. Fifty four patients agreed in this study. NS group(N=32) was treated with scaling and root planing without any surgical intervention, the other S group(N=22) done with flap operation. During the active treatment and healing time, all patients of both groups were educated about the importance of oral hygiene and controlled every visit to the hospital. When periodontal treatment needed according to the diagnostic results, some patients were subjected to professional tooth cleaning and scaling once every 3 months according to an individually designed oral hygienic protocol. Probing depth was recorded on baseline and 18 months after treatments. A questionnaire composed of 6 kinds(hygienic easiness, hypersensitivity, post treatment comfort, complication, functional comfort, compliance) of questions was delivered to each patient to obtain the subjective evaluation regarding the results of therapy. The decision tree for the treatment of adult periodontal disease was made on the result of 2 kinds of periodontal treatment and patient's ubjective evaluation. The optimal path was calculated by using the success rate of the results as the probability and utility according to relative value and the economic value in the insurance system. The success rate to achieve the diagnostic goal of periodontal treatment as the remaining pocket depth less than 3mm and without BOP was $0.83{\pm}0.12$ by non surgical treatment and $0.82{\pm}0.14$ by surgical treatment without any statistically significant difference. The moderate success rate of more than 4mm probing pocket depth were 0.17 together. The utilities of non-surgical treatment results were 100 for a result with less than 3mm probing pocket depth, 80 for the other results with more than 4mm probing pocket depth, 0 for the extraction. Those of surgical treatment results were the same except 75 for the results with more than 4mm. The pooling results of subjective evaluation by using a questionnaire were 60% for satisfaction level and 40% for no satisfaction level in the patient group receiving nonsurgical treatment and 33% and 67% in the other group receiving surgical treatment. The utilities for 4 satisfaction levels were 100, 75, 60, 50 on the base of that the patient would express the satisfaction level with normal distribution. The optimal path of periodontal treatment was rolled back by timing the utility on terminal node and the success rate, the distributed ratio of patient's satisfaction level. Both results of the calculation was non surgical treatment. Therefore, it can be said that non-surgical treatment may be the optimal path for this decision tree of treatment protocol if the goal of the periodontal treatment is to achieve the remaining probing pocket depth of less than 3mm for adult chronic periodontitis and if the utilitarian philosophy to maximise the expected utility for the patients is advocated.

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Development of Parking Space Forecast Model for Large Traffic-inducing Facilities Considering Surrounding Circumstance (주변 환경을 고려한 대규모 교통유발시설 주차면산정 모형개발에 관한 연구 - 판매시설을 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Je jin;Oh, Seok Jin;Kim, Sung Hun;Ha, Tae Jun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.593-601
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    • 2017
  • With the rapid industrial development and national economic advance since 1970, the national income of Korea has sharply increased. As a result, issues regarding city expansion, urban concentration, increase in the number of registered motor vehicles, and increase in traffic have caused transportation issues such as traffic congestion and problems with parking. Especially, enforcement ordinances and rules have been established on installation and management of parking lots to solve problems with parking which are raised as social problems such as conflict with neighbors but the flexible calculation of legal parking space has the limitations because of the diversity and complex functionality of purposes of facilities. Accordingly, this study attempted to supplement such demerit of the parking space demand forecast method based on the legally required number of parking spaces and average unit requirement in the parking space supply. This study estimated the required number of parking spaces by analyzing existing literature, collecting field research data, and analyzing the factors that have an impact on the parking demand. Also, it compared the required number of parking spaces based on the average unit requirement as well as the required number of parking spaces by the forecast model based on the cumulative number of motor vehicles parked. The result was that the required number of parking space based on average unit requirement was less than the cumulative number of motor vehicles parked by 9.99%. Meanwhile, the required number of parking spaces by the forecast model was more than the cumulative number of motor vehicles parked by 4.37%. Therefore, it is believed that the parking space forecast model is more efficient than the others in estimating there quired parking space. The parking space forecast model of this study consider different environmental factors to enable practical parking demand forecast considering the local characteristics and thus supply the parking space in an efficient way.

Evaluation and Improvement Measures on the Status of the Installation and Operation of Facilities for Recycling Food Waste into Resources (음식물 자원화시설의 설치·운영에 대한 일반현황의 평가 및 개선 방안)

  • Ryu, Ji-Young;Kong, Kyu-Sik;Shin, Dae-Yewn;Phae, Chae-Gun
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2004
  • This research sought to determine the status of the installation and operation of domestic public resource-making facilities of resource-making facilities and come up with corresponding improvement measures. Currently compost is most numerous set-up out of facilties already established ever since, then the rest of them are feeds, anaerobic degradation, sewage combination, and combination of compost and feeds in order. As such, food waste is processed more into compost than into feeds, presumably because relevant facilities, which were originally designed for processing into feeds, were converted into composting facilities due to little demand for the processed feeds. The finding says that many related firms had yet to register their businesses in accordance with feeds and fertilizers management laws, and that food waste resources-making facilities used various basic facilities but few of them treated food waste in linkage with leaching water, bad odors, and energy. Some of current facilities were found to be 7 years old and thus outdated. Due to lack of skilled operational manpower, many facilities had less than 300 days of normal operation yearly, and some needed minor and serious repairs periodically. In overall facilities, 87% of the planned food waste was rolled in, thus requiring measures to treat the whole planned volume. For costs of resource-making facilities, some with a capacity of below 50 tons topped 100 million won, and facilities with a capacity of over 50 tons required less installation costs. Overall, installation costs ranged from 10 million to 20 million, and to 200 million won per ton, and this suggests a need to establish the installation cost calculation criteria, as well as to reshape the facility criteria. With operating costs varying greatly according to the size and treatment methods of facilities, the finding indicates a need to rationalize the operating costs, and to plan appropriate-size installation and operation of facilities to ensure economic operation.

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Korea's Optimal Basket Exchange Rate : Thoughts on the Proper Operation of the Market Average Rate Regime (우리나라의 적정(適正)바스켓환율(換率) : 시장평균환율제도(市場平均換率制度)의 운용기준(運用基準) 모색(模索))

  • Oum, Bong-sung
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.111-125
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    • 1990
  • For the last several years, considerable criticism has been leveled against Korea's exchange rate management. While Korea was designated a currency manipulator by the U.S., domestically it is often complained that the won/dollar rate did not adequately reflect changes in Korea's export competitiveness and fluctuations in the exchange rates of major currencies. In view of this situation, Korea changed its exchange regime at the beginning of March this year from the dual currency basket system to a more flexible one, called a "market average rate regime". Under this new regime, the won rate is determined in the exchange market based upon the supply of and demand for foreign exchange and is allowed to freely fluctuate each day within a + 0.4 % range. This paper, first, seeks to evaluate Korea's exchange rate management under the dual basket regime of the 1980s, and then to construct an optimal currency basket for the won which could provide a proper indicator for exchange market intervention under the new market average rate regime. The analysis of fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the won indicates that the won rates in the 1980s failed not only to offset changes in relative prices between home and trading partner countries, but also to properly respond to variations in major exchange rates as further evidenced by sizable fluctuations in the nominal effective rates of the won. In other words, the currency basket regime which was adopted in 1980 for the stabilization of the REER of the won has not been operated properly, mainly because authorities often resorted to policy considerations in determining the won's rate. In the second part of the paper, an optimal currency basket for Korea is constructed, designed to minimize the fluctuations in the REER of the won without including policy considerations as a factor. It is recognized, however, that both domestic and foreign price data are not available immediately for the calculation of the REER. For this problem, the approach suggested by Lipschitz (1980) is followed, in which optimal weights for currencies in the basket are determined based upon the past correlation between price and exchange rates. When the optimal basket is applied to Korea since the mid-80s, it is found that the REER of the won could have been much more stable than it actually was. We also argue for the use of variable weights rather than fixed ones, which would be determined by the changing relationship between exchange rates and relative prices. The optimal basket, and the optimal basket exchange rate based on that basket, could provide an important medium- or long-term reference for proper exchange market intervention under the market average rate regime, together with other factors, such as developments in the current account balance and changes in productivity.

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M2 Velocity and Expected Inflation in Korea: Implications for Interest Rate Policy (인플레와 M2 유통속도(流通速度))

  • Park, Woo-kyu
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.3-19
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    • 1991
  • This paper attempts to identify key determinants of long run movements of real M2 by using the Johansen procedure for estimating and testing cointegration relations. It turns out that the real M2 equation has been stable over the long run despite rapid changes in financial structure since 1975. Moreover, the real M2 equation can be reduced to a velocity equation with the opportunity cost variable, expected inflation less the weighted average rate paid on M2 deposits, being the key determinant. However, it does not work to use a market interest rate such as the yield on corporate bonds in place of expected inflation for calculation of the opportunity cost. In the U.S., a market interest rate can be used, but not in Korea. Presumably, two somewhat different reasonings can be used to explain this result. One is that the yield on corporate bonds may not adequately reflect the inflationary expectations due to regulations on movements in interest rates. The other is that M2 deposits are not readily substitutable with such assets as corporate bonds because of market segmentations, regulations, and so on. From the policymaker's point of view, this implies that the inflation rate is an important indicator of a policy response. On the other hand, policymakers do not regard movements of the yield on corporate bonds as an important policy indicator. Altogether, the role of interest rates has been quite limited in Korea because of incomplete interest rate liberalization, an underdeveloped financial system, implementation procedures of policy measures, and so on. The result that M2 velocity has a positive cointegration relation with expected inflation minus the average rate on M2 implies that frequent adjustments of the regulated rates on M2 will be necessary as market conditions change. As the expected inflation gets higher, M2 velocity will eventually increase, given that the rates on M2 do not change. This will cause higher inflation. If interest rates are liberalized, then increases in market interest rates will result in lagged increases in deposits rates on M2. However, in Korea a substantial portion of deposit rates are regulated and will not change without the authority's initiatives. A tight monetary policy will cause increases in a few market interest rates. But the market mechanism, upward pressure for interest rate adjustments, never reaches regulated deposit rates. Hence the overall effects of tight monetary policy diminish considerably, only causing distortions in the flow of funds. Therefore, frequent adjustments of deposit rates are necessary as market conditions such as inflationary expectations change. Then it becomes important for the policymaker to actively engage in adjusting regulated deposit rates, because the financial sector in Korea is not fully developed.

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Analysis of CO2 Emission Intensity per Industry using the Input-Output Tables 2003 (산업연관표(2003년)를 활용한 산업별 CO2 배출 원단위 분석)

  • Park, Pil-Ju;Kim, Mann-Young;Yi, Il-Seuk
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.279-309
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    • 2009
  • Greenhouse gas emissions should be precisely forecast to reduce the emissions from industrial production processes. This study calculated the direct and indirect $CO_2$ emission intensities of 401 industries using the Input-Output tables 2003 and statistical data on the amount of energy use. This study had some limitations in drawing study findings because overseas data were used given the lack of domestic data. Other limiting factors included the oil distribution problems in the oil refinery sector, re-review of carbon neutral, and insufficient consideration of waste treatment. Nonetheless, this study is very meaningful since the direct and indirect $CO_2$ emission intensities of 401 industries were calculated. Specifically, this study considered from the zero-waste perspective the effects of waste, which attract interest worldwide since coke gas and gas from the steel industry are obtained as byproducts for the first time in Korea. According to the results of the analysis of $CO_2$ emission intensity per industry, typical industries whose indirect $CO_2$ emission intensity is high include crude steel making, Remicon, steel wire rods & track rail, cast iron, and iron reinforcing rods & bar steel. These industries produce products using the raw materials produced in the industrial sector whose $CO_2$ emission intensity is high. The representative industries whose direct $CO_2$ emission intensity is high include cement, pig iron, lime & plaster products, andcoal-based compounds. These industries extract raw ore from nature and refine them into raw materials that are useful in other industries. The findings in this study can be effectively used for the following case: estimation of target $CO_2$ emission reduction level reflecting each industrial sector's characteristics, calculation of potential emission reduction of each policy to reduce $CO_2$ emissions, identification of a firm's $CO_2$ emission level, and setting of the target level of emission reduction. Moreover, the findings in this study can be utilized widely in fields such as System of integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting(SEEA) and Material Flow Analysis(MFA) as the current topic of research in Korea.

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Estimation of Allowable Bearing Capacity and Settlement of Deep Cement Mixing Method for Reinforcing the Greenhouse Foundation on Reclaimed Land (간척지 온실기초 보강을 위한 심층혼합처리공법의 허용지내력 및 침하량 산정)

  • Lee, Haksung;Kang, Bang Hun;Lee, Kwang-seung;Lee, Su Hwan
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.287-294
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    • 2021
  • In order to expand facility agriculture and reduce greenhouse construction costs in reclaimed land, a greenhouse foundation method that satisfies economic feasibility and structural safety at the same time is required. As an alternative, the allowable bearing capacity and settlement were reviewed when the DCM(Deep cement mixing) method was applied among the soft ground reinforcement methods. To examine the applicability of the greenhouse foundation, the allowable bearing capacity and settlement were calculated by applying the theory of Terzaghi, Meyerhof, Hansen, and Schmertmann. In case of the diameter of 800mm and the width and length of the foundation of 4m, the allowable bearing capacity was 179kN/m2 and the settlement was 7.25mm, which satisfies the required bearing capacity and settlement standards. The calculation results were verified through FEM(Finite element method) analysis using the Mohr-Coulomb material model. The allowable bearing capacity was 169kN/m2 and the settlement was 2.52mm. The bearing capacity showed an error of 5.6% compared to calculated value, and the settlement showed and error of 65.4%. Through theoretical calculations and FEM analysis, it was confirmed that the allowable bearing capacity and settlement satisfies the design criteria as a greenhouse foundation when the width and length of the foundation were 4m. Based on the verified design values, it is expected to be able to present the foundation design criteria for greenhouses through empirical tests such as bearing capacity tests and long-term settlement monitoring.

Mature Market Sub-segmentation and Its Evaluation by the Degree of Homogeneity (동질도 평가를 통한 실버세대 세분군 분류 및 평가)

  • Bae, Jae-ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2010
  • As the population, buying power, and intensity of self-expression of the elderly generation increase, its importance as a market segment is also growing. Therefore, the mass marketing strategy for the elderly generation must be changed to a micro-marketing strategy based on the results of sub-segmentation that suitably captures the characteristics of this generation. Furthermore, as a customer access strategy is decided by sub-segmentation, proper segmentation is one of the key success factors for micro-marketing. Segments or sub-segments are different from sectors, because segmentation or sub-segmentation for micro-marketing is based on the homogeneity of customer needs. Theoretically, complete segmentation would reveal a single voice. However, it is impossible to achieve complete segmentation because of economic factors, factors that affect effectiveness, etc. To obtain a single voice from a segment, we sometimes need to divide it into many individual cases. In such a case, there would be a many segments to deal with. On the other hand, to maximize market access performance, fewer segments are preferred. In this paper, we use the term "sub-segmentation" instead of "segmentation," because we divide a specific segment into more detailed segments. To sub-segment the elderly generation, this paper takes their lifestyles and life stages into consideration. In order to reflect these aspects, various surveys and several rounds of expert interviews and focused group interviews (FGIs) were performed. Using the results of these qualitative surveys, we can define six sub-segments of the elderly generation. This paper uses five rules to divide the elderly generation. The five rules are (1) mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (MECE) sub-segmentation, (2) important life stages, (3) notable lifestyles, (4) minimum number of and easy classifiable sub-segments, and (5) significant difference in voices among the sub-segments. The most critical point for dividing the elderly market is whether children are married. The other points are source of income, gender, and occupation. In this paper, the elderly market is divided into six sub-segments. As mentioned, the number of sub-segments is a very key point for a successful marketing approach. Too many sub-segments would lead to narrow substantiality or lack of actionability. On the other hand, too few sub-segments would have no effects. Therefore, the creation of the optimum number of sub-segments is a critical problem faced by marketers. This paper presents a method of evaluating the fitness of sub-segments that was deduced from the preceding surveys. The presented method uses the degree of homogeneity (DoH) to measure the adequacy of sub-segments. This measure uses quantitative survey questions to calculate adequacy. The ratio of significantly homogeneous questions to the total numbers of survey questions indicates the DoH. A significantly homogeneous question is defined as a question in which one case is selected significantly more often than others. To show whether a case is selected significantly more often than others, we use a hypothesis test. In this case, the null hypothesis (H0) would be that there is no significant difference between the selection of one case and that of the others. Thus, the total number of significantly homogeneous questions is the total number of cases in which the null hypothesis is rejected. To calculate the DoH, we conducted a quantitative survey (total sample size was 400, 60 questions, 4~5 cases for each question). The sample size of the first sub-segment-has no unmarried offspring and earns a living independently-is 113. The sample size of the second sub-segment-has no unmarried offspring and is economically supported by its offspring-is 57. The sample size of the third sub-segment-has unmarried offspring and is employed and male-is 70. The sample size of the fourth sub-segment-has unmarried offspring and is not employed and male-is 45. The sample size of the fifth sub-segment-has unmarried offspring and is female and employed (either the female herself or her husband)-is 63. The sample size of the last sub-segment-has unmarried offspring and is female and not employed (not even the husband)-is 52. Statistically, the sample size of each sub-segment is sufficiently large. Therefore, we use the z-test for testing hypotheses. When the significance level is 0.05, the DoHs of the six sub-segments are 1.00, 0.95, 0.95, 0.87, 0.93, and 1.00, respectively. When the significance level is 0.01, the DoHs of the six sub-segments are 0.95, 0.87, 0.85, 0.80, 0.88, and 0.87, respectively. These results show that the first sub-segment is the most homogeneous category, while the fourth has more variety in terms of its needs. If the sample size is sufficiently large, more segmentation would be better in a given sub-segment. However, as the fourth sub-segment is smaller than the others, more detailed segmentation is not proceeded. A very critical point for a successful micro-marketing strategy is measuring the fit of a sub-segment. However, until now, there have been no robust rules for measuring fit. This paper presents a method of evaluating the fit of sub-segments. This method will be very helpful for deciding the adequacy of sub-segmentation. However, it has some limitations that prevent it from being robust. These limitations include the following: (1) the method is restricted to only quantitative questions; (2) the type of questions that must be involved in calculation pose difficulties; (3) DoH values depend on content formation. Despite these limitations, this paper has presented a useful method for conducting adequate sub-segmentation. We believe that the present method can be applied widely in many areas. Furthermore, the results of the sub-segmentation of the elderly generation can serve as a reference for mature marketing.

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