• Title/Summary/Keyword: earthquake scenario

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A Systems Engineering Approach to Predict the Success Window of FLEX Strategy under Extended SBO Using Artificial Intelligence

  • Alketbi, Salama Obaid;Diab, Aya
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.97-109
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    • 2020
  • On March 11, 2011, an earthquake followed by a tsunami caused an extended station blackout (SBO) at the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP Units. The accident was initiated by a total loss of both onsite and offsite electrical power resulting in the loss of the ultimate heat sink for several days, and a consequent core melt in some units where proper mitigation strategies could not be implemented in a timely fashion. To enhance the plant's coping capability, the Diverse and Flexible Strategies (FLEX) were proposed to append the Emergency Operation Procedures (EOPs) by relying on portable equipment as an additional line of defense. To assess the success window of FLEX strategies, all sources of uncertainties need to be considered, using a physics-based model or system code. This necessitates conducting a large number of simulations to reflect all potential variations in initial, boundary, and design conditions as well as thermophysical properties, empirical models, and scenario uncertainties. Alternatively, data-driven models may provide a fast tool to predict the success window of FLEX strategies given the underlying uncertainties. This paper explores the applicability of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to identify the success window of FLEX strategy for extended SBO. The developed model can be trained and validated using data produced by the lumped parameter thermal-hydraulic code, MARS-KS, as best estimate system code loosely coupled with Dakota for uncertainty quantification. A Systems Engineering (SE) approach is used to plan and manage the process of using AI to predict the success window of FLEX strategies under extended SBO conditions.

Seismic vulnerability macrozonation map of SMRFs located in Tehran via reliability framework

  • Amini, Ali;Kia, Mehdi;Bayat, Mahmoud
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.78 no.3
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    • pp.351-368
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    • 2021
  • This paper, by applying a reliability-based framework, develops seismic vulnerability macrozonation maps for Tehran, the capital and one of the most earthquake-vulnerable city of Iran. Seismic performance assessment of 3-, 4- and 5-story steel moment resisting frames (SMRFs), designed according to ASCE/SEI 41-17 and Iranian Code of Practice for Seismic Resistant Design of Buildings (2800 Standard), is investigated in terms of overall maximum inter-story drift ratio (MIDR) and unit repair cost ratio which is hereafter known as "damage ratio". To this end, Tehran city is first meshed into a network of 66 points to numerically locate low- to mid-rise SMRFs. Active faults around Tehran are next modeled explicitly. Two different combination of faults, based on available seismological data, are then developed to explore the impact of choosing a proper seismic scenario. In addition, soil effect is exclusively addressed. After building analytical models, reliability methods in combination with structure-specific probabilistic models are applied to predict demand and damage ratio of structures in a cost-effective paradigm. Due to capability of proposed methodology incorporating both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties explicitly, this framework which is centered on the regional demand and damage ratio estimation via structure-specific characteristics can efficiently pave the way for decision makers to find the most vulnerable area in a regional scale. This technical basis can also be adapted to any other structures which the demand and/or damage ratio prediction models are developed.

A Study on the Establishment of Disaster Prevention Plans for Nuclear Facilities considering Complex Disasters (복합재난을 고려한 원자력시설 사고대비 방재계획 수립방안)

  • Jihoon Shin;Younwon Park;Seunghyeon Kim;Minho Cha;Minsang Ryu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.85-99
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    • 2023
  • By the social advancement, radiological disaster prevention planning is getting important considering complex disasters as in the Fukushima radiological disaster occurred by a chain of natural disasters. However, it has yet to be suggested the specific prevention plans for the complex disasters in the field of national radiological disaster prevention. This study aims to analyze the types of complex disasters in order to select the ones that are relatively more likely to occur in the domestic environment. It is also to analyze the impact on the radiological disaster prevention by searching damage spread of the classified natural disasters. We provides the necessary criterial for establishing disaster prevention plans through the scenarios for radiological emergency responses based on complex disasters. it is thought that these criteria can help prepare for the worst case scenario and implement effective resident protection.

Comparison of the Applicability of Bayesian Filters for System Identification of Sudden Structural Damage (급격한 구조손상탐지를 위한 베이지안 필터 적용가능성 비교 검토 연구)

  • Se-Hyeok Lee;Minkyu Kim;Sang-ri Yi
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.283-293
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    • 2024
  • In this study, advanced unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and particle filter (PF) implementations are introduced and applied to perform system identification (SI) for sudden structural damage induced by seismic loading. These two methods are then compared to validate their applicability to SI tasks. For this validation, the Bouc- Wen model is used to simulate the nonlinear shear-building response, and an adaptive rule (i.e., an adaptive tracking method) is applied to the two filter methods to improve their tracking performance during sudden changes in system properties. When the original UKF and PF are applied to an earthquake scenario, both methods fail to estimate the damage initiation time and post-damage parameter values. After applying the adaptive tracking method, it is found for both methods that although the occurrence time is identified, the estimation of the damage state is still not accurate. To improve the accuracy, an adjusted adaptive tracking method is applied, and the two methods then derive accurate estimates. Finally, when considering the computation time, UKF is promoted as a better choice for practical applications, provided that a proper adaptive tracking method is implemented.

Development and Field Test of a Smart-home Gas Safety Management System (스마트 홈 가스안전관리 시스템 개발 및 현장시험)

  • Park, Gyou-Tae;Kim, Eun-Jung;Kim, In-Chan;Kim, Hie-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.128-135
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we proposed a system and a scenario to raise efficiency of gas safety management by developing wireless ZigBee communication modules, smart-home gas safety appliances and the system suitable for gas safety. Our designed system consists of a micom gas meter, an automatic extinguisher, sensors, and a wall-pad. A micom-gas-meter monitors gas flow, gas pressure, and earthquake. An automatic fire extinguisher checks combustible gas leaks and temperature of $100^{\circ}C$(cut off) and $130^{\circ}C$(fire). Sensors measure smoke and CO gas. In our novel system, a micom-gas meter cut off inner valve with warnings, an automatic fire extinguisher cut off middle valve and spray extinguishing materials, and sensors generate signals when detecting smoke and CO and then take a next action. Gas safety appliances and sensors automatically takes measures, and transmit those information to a wall-pad. The wall-pad again transmits real time information to server. Users can check and manage gas safety situations by connecting BcN server through web or mobile application. We hereby devised scenarios for gas safety and risk management based on the smart, and demonstrated their efficiency through test applied to filed.

Draft List and Relative Importance of Principal Processes in the Geosphere to be Considered for the Radiological Safety Assessment of the Domestic Geological Disposal Facility through Analyzing FEPs for KBS-3 Type Disposal Repository of High-level Radioactive Waste(HLW) (KBS-3 방식 고준위방폐물 심층처분장 FEP 분석을 통한 국내 사용후핵연료 심층처분시설 방사선학적 안전성 평가용 지권영역 주요 프로세스 항목 및 상대적 중요도 도출)

  • Sukhoon Kim;Donghyun Lee;Dong-Keuk Park
    • Journal of Radiation Industry
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2023
  • The deep geological repository of high-level radioactive waste shall be designed to meet the safety objective set in the form of radiation dose or corresponding risk to protect human and the environment from radiation exposure. Engineering feasibility and conformity with the safety objective of the facility conceptual design can be demonstrated by comparing the assessment result using the computational model for scenario(s) describing the radionuclide release and transport from repository to biosphere system. In this study, as the preliminary study for developing the high-level radioactive waste disposal facility in Korea, we reviewed and analyzed the entire list of FEPs and how to handle each FEP from a general point of view, which are selected for the geosphere region in the radiological safety assessment performed for the license application of the KBS-3 type deep geological repository in Finland and Sweden. In Finland, five FEPs (i.e., stress redistribution, creep, stress redistribution, erosion and sedimentation in fractures, methane hydrate formation, and salt exclusion) were excluded or ignored in the radionuclide release and transport assessment. And, in Sweden, six FEPs (i.e., creep, surface weathering and erosion, erosion/sedimentation in fractures, methane hydrate formation, radiation effects (rock and grout), and earth current) were not considered for all time frames and earthquake out of a total of 25 FEPs for the geosphere. Based on these results, an FEP list (draft) for the geosphere was derived, and the relative importance of each item was evaluated for conducting the radiological safety assessment of the domestic deep geological disposal facility. Since most of information on the disposal facility in Korea has not been determined as of now, it is judged that all FEP items presented in Table 3 should be considered for the radiological safety assessment, and the relative importance derived from this study can be used in determining whether to apply each item in the future.