• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.69-88
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• 2022

One of the characteristics of South Korea's economic structure is that it is highly dependent on exports. Thus, many businesses are closely related to the global economy and diplomatic situation. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) specialized in exporting are struggling due to the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to forecast exports for next year to support SMEs' export strategy and decision making. Also, this study proposed a strategy to recommend promising export countries of each item based on the forecasting model. We analyzed important variables used in previous studies such as country-specific, item-specific, and macro-economic variables and collected those variables to train our prediction model. Next, through the exploratory data analysis(EDA) it was found that exports, which is a target variable, have a highly skewed distribution. To deal with this issue and improve predictive performance, we suggest a separated learning method. In a separated learning method, the whole dataset is divided into homogeneous subgroups and a prediction algorithm is applied to each group. Thus, characteristics of each group can be more precisely trained using different input variables and algorithms. In this study, we divided the dataset into five subgroups based on the exports to decrease skewness of the target variable. After the separation, we found that each group has different characteristics in countries and goods. For example, In Group 1, most of the exporting countries are developing countries and the majority of exporting goods are low value products such as glass and prints. On the other hand, major exporting countries of South Korea such as China, USA, and Vietnam are included in Group 4 and Group 5 and most exporting goods in these groups are high value products. Then we used LightGBM(LGBM) and Exponential Moving Average(EMA) for prediction. Considering the characteristics of each group, models were built using LGBM for Group 1 to 4 and EMA for Group 5. To evaluate the performance of the model, we compare different model structures and algorithms. As a result, it was found that the separated learning model had best performance compared to other models. After the model was built, we also provided variable importance of each group using SHAP-value to add explainability of our model. Based on the prediction model, we proposed a second-stage recommendation strategy for potential export countries. In the first phase, BCG matrix was used to find Star and Question Mark markets that are expected to grow rapidly. In the second phase, we calculated scores for each country and recommendations were made according to ranking. Using this recommendation framework, potential export countries were selected and information about those countries for each item was presented. There are several implications of this study. First of all, most of the preceding studies have conducted research on the specific situation or country. However, this study use various variables and develops a machine learning model for a wide range of countries and items. Second, as to our knowledge, it is the first attempt to adopt a separated learning method for exports prediction. By separating the dataset into 5 homogeneous subgroups, we could enhance the predictive performance of the model. Also, more detailed explanation of models by group is provided using SHAP values. Lastly, this study has several practical implications. There are some platforms which serve trade information including KOTRA, but most of them are based on past data. Therefore, it is not easy for companies to predict future trends. By utilizing the model and recommendation strategy in this research, trade related services in each platform can be improved so that companies including SMEs can fully utilize the service when making strategies and decisions for exports.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.151-162
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• 2023

This study investigated the characteristics of fish communities and inhabiting status of the endangered species, Rhodeus pseudosericeus, in the Geumdang Stream in Korea from March to October 2021. A total of 1,698 fish in 5 families and 25 species were collected from 7 survey stations during the survey period. The dominant species was Zacco platypus (relative abundance, 46.5%), and the subdominant species was Squalidus gracilis majimae (16.7%), followed by Rhynchocypris oxycephalus (12.0%), Z. koreanus (5.7%), Pungtungia herzi (3.2%), R. pseudosericeus (2.0%), R. notatus (1.9%), and Acheilognathus rhombeus (1.8%). Nine Korean endemic species (36.0%) were collected, including R. pseudosericeus, R. uyekii, Sarcocheilichthys variegatus wakiyae, Microphysogobio yaluensis, S. gracilis majimae, Z. koreanus, Cobitis nalbanti, Iksookimia koreensis, and Odontobutis interrupta. An exotic species, Micropterus salmoides, designated as an invasive alien species (IAS), was collected downstream. The investigation of the habitat patterns of the endangered species (class II), Rhodeus pseudosericeus, showed a habitat range of about 6 to 7 km in the middle of Geumdang Stream (RP-1 to RP-4), and this species inhabited the edge with water depths of 0.3 through 1.0 m with slow water flow and many aquatic plants. According to the community analysis results, the overall dominance and evenness indexes were low, while diversity and richness indexes were high, and the cluster structure was largely divided into upstream and middle-downstream areas. The river health (fish assessment index) evaluated using fish was assessed as good (3 stations), normal (3 stations), and bad (1 station), and water quality was evaluated as good both upstream and downstream. Compared to previous studies, the number of species was relatively similar, and among the species that appeared in the past, 13 species did not appear in this survey, while 6 species appeared for the first time in this survey. Disturbance factors included river construction, many weirs, and the appearance of the ecosystem-disturbing species, M. salmoides. Since Geumdang Strem has high conservation value because it is home to many species in the Acheilognathinae subfamily, including the endangered species R. pseudosericeus, continuous attention and systematic conservation measures are required.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.102-117
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• 2009

This study was carried out to investigate the extent to which benthic environment of Ulsan Bay was disturbed by organic materials and trace metals from the megacity and industrial complex. Field survey for benthic environment and macroinvertebrate community was seasonally conducted from February to November 2006 at nine stations covering the inside and outside of the bay. TOC was on average 1.7% while four (As, Cu, Pb, Zn) out of seven trace metals measured exceeded the Effects Range Low (ERL) in most of the stations. Total number of species sampled was 199 and mean density was 4,578 ind./$m^2$, both of which were greatly dominated by the polychaetes. Dominant species were Aphelochaeta monilaris (22.6%), Ruditapes philippinarum (17.1%), Magelona japonica (12.2%), Lumbrineris longifolia (9.9%) and their distribution was ruled by the difference in the benthic environmental condition of each station. From the multivariate analyses, four stational groups were identified: northern part of the bay, middle and lower part of the bay, the intersection of Taewha River and Gosa stream and outside of the bay. As a result, the community heterogeneity of inner bay was much more greater than that of outer bay. SIMPER analysis showed that four groups were represented by R. philippinarum-Capitella capitata, A. monilaris-Balanoglossus carnosus, Sinocorophium sinensis-Cyathura higoensis and M. japonica-Ampharete arctica, respectively. Spatio-temporal changes of macroinvertebrate communities in Ulsan Bay were closely related to those of depth, mean grain size and organic content, and Zn was also a meaningful factor in that context.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.121-128
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• 2008

As an aquatic ecotoxicity test method, a bioassay using the inhibition of sporualtion of the green macroalga, Ulva pertusa, has been developed. Optimal test conditions determined for photon irradiance, pH, salinity and temperature were $100\;{\mu}mol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$, $7{\sim}9$, $25{\sim}35\;psu$ and $15{\sim}20^{\circ}C$, respectively. The validity of the test endpoint was evaluated by assessing the toxicity of four metals (Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn) and elutriates of sewage or waste sludge collected from 9 different locations. When the metals were assayed, the $EC_{50}$ values indicated the following toxicity rankings: Cu ($0.062\;mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$) > Cd ($0.208\;mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$) > Pb ($0.718\;mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$) > Zn ($0.776\;mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$). When compared with other commonly used bioassays of metal pollution listed on US ECOTOX database, the sporualtion test proved to be the most sensitive. Ulva sporulation was significantly inhibited in all elutriates with the greatest and least effects observed in elutriates of sludge from industrial waste ($EC_{50}=6.78%$) and filtration bed ($EC_{50}=15.0%$), respectively. The results of the Spearman rank correlation analysis for $EC_{50}$ data versus the concentrations of toxicants in the sludge presented a significant correlation between toxicity and four heavy metals(Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn). The method described here is sensitive to toxicants, simple to use, easy to interpret and economical. It is also easy to procure samples and maintain cultures. The present method would therefore probably make a useful assessment of aquatic toxicity of a wide range of toxicants. In addition, the genus Ulva has a wide geographical distribution and species have similar reproductive processes, so the test method would have a potential application worldwide.

• The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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• v.35
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• pp.23-31
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• 2023

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of Non-Treat Functionality Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy(NTF-VMAT) and Treat Functionality VMAT(TF-VMAT) treatment plans in reducing the low-dose area during radiation therapy for patients with multiple metastatic cancers. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted on an Arccheck phantom, treatment planning target locations were set in pairs at intervals of 2 cm, 4 cm, and 6 cm on the X, Y, and Z axes. Based on these location settings, the volume of the low-dose area in NTF-VMAT and TF-VMAT was measured and compared. Results: The results of the study showed that, within a prescription dose range of 10% ~ 70%, the difference in low-dose area volumes across each axis was as follows: On the X-axis, there was a maximum difference of -47.6% and a minimum difference of -2.2%. On the Y-axis, there was a maximum difference of -17.5% and a minimum difference of -7.3%. The Z-axis showed a maximum difference of -39.7%, with the smallest difference being -6.8%. Conclusion: In radiation therapy for patients with multiple metastatic cancers, the TF-VMAT treatment plan was able to reduce the low-dose area by 10-40% compared to NTF-VMAT. This suggests that utilizing Treat Functionality, which includes the Island block technique, improves dose distribution and minimizes side effects, making it beneficial for the treatment of patients with multiple metastatic cancers.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.121-135
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• 2024

This study examined the influence of near-surface atmospheric warming in the Arctic-East Asia region during spring (March-May) from 1991 to 2020 on the synoptic-scale meteorology of dust storm-induced dust days in Seoul, Korea, in response to the Arctic Oscillation. Increased springtime warming in the Arctic-East Asia region correlated with a reduction of six days in the occurrence of dust storm-induced dust days in Seoul, Korea, along with a decline in the intensity of these days by -1.6 ㎍ m^-3yr^-1 in PM₁₀ mass concentration. The declining number of dust storm-induced dust days in Korea during the 2010s was the result of synoptic-scale meteorological analysis, which showed increased high-pressure activity as indicated by the negative potential vorticity unit. Moreover, a distinct pattern emerged in the distribution of dust storm-induced dust days in Korea based on the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI), showing an increase in negative AOI and a decrease in positive AOI. Although the northward shift of the polar jet weakened the southerly low-pressure system activity over Mongolia and northern China, a reinforced high-pressure system formed over the Chinese continent during dust-storm-induced dust days with a negative AOI. This resulted in both a decrease in the frequency of dust-storm-induced dust days and reduction in wind speeds, facilitating their transport from source regions to Korea. Conversely, on days with positive AOIs, an extensive warm and stagnant high-pressure system dominated mainland China, accompanied by further cooling of the northern segment of the polar jet. A notable decline in wind speed in the lower troposphere across the Mongolia-northern China-Korea region diminished the occurrence of dust storm-induced dust days and also weakened their long-range transport.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.61-71
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• 2024

In this study, we analyzed chlorogenic acid indicator components in preparation for the additional listing of green coffee bean extract in the Health Functional Food Code and optimized caffeine for simultaneous analysis. We extracted chlorogenic acid and caffeine using 30% methanol, phosphoric acid solution, and acetonitrile-containing phosphoric acid and analyzed them at 330 and 280 nm, respectively, using liquid chromatography. Our analysis validation results yielded a correlation coefficient (R²) revealing a significance level of at least 0.999 within the linear quantitative range. The chlorogenic acid and caffeine detection and quantification limits were 0.5 and 0.2 ㎍/mL and 1.4, and 0.4 ㎍/mL, respectively. We confirmed that the precision and accuracy results were suitable using the AOAC validation guidelines. Finally, we developed a simultaneous chlorogenic acid and caffeine analysis approach. In addition, we confirmed that our analysis approach could simultaneously quantify chlorogenic acid and caffeine by examining the applicability of each formulation through prototypes and distribution products. In conclusion, the results of this study demonstrated that the standardized analysis would expectably increase chlorogenic acidcontaining health functional food quality control reliability.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.474-480
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• 2016

In this study, formation background of biodiversity and its changes in the process of geologic history, and effects of climate change on biodiversity and human were discussed and the alternatives to reduce the effects of climate change were suggested. Biodiversity is 'the variety of life' and refers collectively to variation at all levels of biological organization. That is, biodiversity encompasses the genes, species and ecosystems and their interactions. It provides the basis for ecosystems and the services on which all people fundamentally depend. Nevertheless, today, biodiversity is increasingly threatened, usually as the result of human activity. Diverse organisms on earth, which are estimated as 10 to 30 million species, are the result of adaptation and evolution to various environments through long history of four billion years since the birth of life. Countlessly many organisms composing biodiversity have specific characteristics, respectively and are interrelated with each other through diverse relationship. Environment of the earth, on which we live, has also created for long years through extensive relationship and interaction of those organisms. We mankind also live through interrelationship with the other organisms as an organism. The man cannot lives without the other organisms around him. Even though so, human beings accelerate mean extinction rate about 1,000 times compared with that of the past for recent several years. We have to conserve biodiversity for plentiful life of our future generation and are responsible for sustainable use of biodiversity. Korea has achieved faster economic growth than any other countries in the world. On the other hand, Korea had hold originally rich biodiversity as it is not only a peninsula country stretched lengthily from north to south but also three sides are surrounded by sea. But they disappeared increasingly in the process of fast economic growth. Korean people have created specific Korean culture by coexistence with nature through a long history of agriculture, forestry, and fishery. But in recent years, the relationship between Korean and nature became far in the processes of introduction of western culture and development of science and technology and specific natural feature born from harmonious combination between nature and culture disappears more and more. Population of Korea is expected to be reduced as contrasted with world population growing continuously. At this time, we need to restore biodiversity damaged in the processes of rapid population growth and economic development in concert with recovery of natural ecosystem due to population decrease. There were grand extinction events of five times since the birth of life on the earth. Modern extinction is very rapid and human activity is major causal factor. In these respects, it is distinguished from the past one. Climate change is real. Biodiversity is very vulnerable to climate change. If organisms did not find a survival method such as 'adaptation through evolution', 'movement to the other place where they can exist', and so on in the changed environment, they would extinct. In this respect, if climate change is continued, biodiversity should be damaged greatly. Furthermore, climate change would also influence on human life and socio-economic environment through change of biodiversity. Therefore, we need to grasp the effects that climate change influences on biodiversity more actively and further to prepare the alternatives to reduce the damage. Change of phenology, change of distribution range including vegetation shift, disharmony of interaction among organisms, reduction of reproduction and growth rates due to odd food chain, degradation of coral reef, and so on are emerged as the effects of climate change on biodiversity. Expansion of infectious disease, reduction of food production, change of cultivation range of crops, change of fishing ground and time, and so on appear as the effects on human. To solve climate change problem, first of all, we need to mitigate climate change by reducing discharge of warming gases. But even though we now stop discharge of warming gases, climate change is expected to be continued for the time being. In this respect, preparing adaptive strategy of climate change can be more realistic. Continuous monitoring to observe the effects of climate change on biodiversity and establishment of monitoring system have to be preceded over all others. Insurance of diverse ecological spaces where biodiversity can establish, assisted migration, and establishment of horizontal network from south to north and vertical one from lowland to upland ecological networks could be recommended as the alternatives to aid adaptation of biodiversity to the changing climate.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.45 no.1
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• pp.11-25
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• 1979

There was much mass movement at many different mountain side of Peong Chang area in Kwangwon province by the influence of heavy rainfall through August/4 5, 1979. This study have done with the fact observed through the field survey and the information of the former researchers. The results are as follows; 1. Heavy rainfall area with more than 200mm per day and more than 60mm per hour as maximum rainfall during past 6 years, are distributed in the western side of the connecting line through Hoeng Seong, Weonju, Yeongdong, Muju, Namweon and Suncheon, and of the southern sea side of KeongsangNam-do. The heavy rain fan reason in the above area seems to be influenced by the mouktam range and moving direction of depression. 2. Peak point of heavy rainfall distribution always happen during the night time and seems to cause directly mass movement and serious damage. 3. Soil mass movement in Peongchang break out from the course sandy loam soil of granite group and the clay soil of lime stone and shale. Earth have moved along the surface of both bedrock or also the hardpan in case of the lime stone area. 4. Infiltration seems to be rapid on the both bedrock soil, the former is by the soil texture and the latter is by the crumb structure, high humus content and dense root system in surface soil. 5. Topographic pattern of mass movement spot is mostly the concave slope at the valley head or at the upper part of middle slope which run-off can easily come together from the surrounding slope. Soil profile of mass movement spot has wet soil in the lime stone area and loose or deep soil in the granite area. 6. Dominant slope degree of the soil mass movement site has steep slope, mostly, more than 25 degree and slope position that start mass movement is mostly in the range of the middle slope line to ridge line. 7. Vegetation status of soil mass movement area are mostly fire field agriculture area, it's abandoned grass land, young plantation made on the fire field poor forest of the erosion control site and non forest land composed mainly grass and shrubs. Very rare earth sliding can be found in the big tree stands but mostly from the thin soil site on the un-weatherd bed rock. 8. Dangerous condition of soil mass movement and land sliding seems to be estimated by the several environmental factors, namely, vegetation cover, slope degree, slope shape and position, bed rock and soil profile characteristics etc. 9. House break down are mostly happen on the following site, namely, colluvial cone and fan, talus, foot area of concave slope and small terrace or colluvial soil between valley and at the small river side Dangerous house from mass movement could be interpreted by the aerial photo with reference of the surrounding site condition of house and village in the mountain area 10. As a counter plan for the prevention of mass movement damage the technics of it's risk diagnosis and the field survey should be done, and the mass movement control of prevention should be started with the goverment support as soon as possible. The precautionary measures of house and village protection from mass movement damage should be made and executed and considered the protecting forest making around the house and village. 11. Dangerous or safety of house and village from mass movement and flood damage will be indentified and informed to the village people of mountain area through the forest extension work. 12. Clear cutting activity on the steep granite site, fire field making on the steep slope, house or village construction on the dangerous site and fuel collection in the eroded forest or the steep forest land should be surely prohibited When making the management plan the mass movement, soil erosion and flood problem will be concidered and also included the prevention method of disaster.