Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Jin-Guk;Cho, Young-Hyun;Kwon, Hyun-Han
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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v.50
no.11
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pp.745-758
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2017
The copula-based models have been successfully applied to hydrological modeling including drought frequency analysis and time series modeling. However, uncertainty estimation associated with the parameters of these model is not often properly addressed. In these context, the main purposes of this study are to develop the Bayesian inference scheme for bivariate copula functions. The main applications considered are two-fold: First, this study developed and tested an approach to copula model parameter estimation within a Bayesian framework for drought frequency analysis. The proposed modeling scheme was shown to correctly estimate model parameters and detect the underlying dependence structure of the assumed copula functions in the synthetic dataset. The model was then used to estimate the joint return period of the recent 2013~2015 drought events in the Han River watershed. The joint return period of the drought duration and drought severity was above 100 years for many of stations. The results obtained in the validation process showed that the proposed model could effectively reproduce the underlying distribution of observed extreme rainfalls as well as explicitly account for parameter uncertainty in the bivariate drought frequency analysis.
The adsorption equilibrium, kinetic, and thermodynamic parameters of brilliant green adsorbed by coconut based granular activated carbon were determined from various initial concentrations ($300{\sim}500mg\;L^{-1}$), contact time (1 ~ 12 h), and adsorption temperature (303 ~ 323 K) through batch experiments. The equilibrium adsorption data were analyzed by Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, Harkins-Jura, and Elovich isotherm models. The estimated Langmuir dimensionless separation factor ($R_L=0.018{\sim}0.040$) and Freundlich constant ($n^{-1}=0.176{\sim}0.206$) show that adsorption of brilliant green by activated carbon is an effective treatment process. Adsorption heat constants ($B=12.43{\sim}17.15J\;mol^{-1}$) estimated by the Temkin equation corresponded to physical adsorption. The isothermal parameter ($A_{HJ}$) by the Harkins-Jura equation showed that the heterogeneous pore distribution increased with increasing temperature. The maximum adsorption capacity by the Elovich equation was found to be much smaller than the experimental value. The adsorption process was best described by the pseudo second order model, and intraparticle diffusion was a rate limiting step in the adsorption process. The intraparticle diffusion rate constant increased because the dye activity increased with increases in the initial concentration. Also, as the initial concentration increased, the influence of the boundary layer also increased. Negative Gibbs free energy ($-10.3{\sim}-11.4kJ\;mol^{-1}$), positive enthalpy change ($18.63kJ\;mol^{-1}$), and activation energy ($26.28kJ\;mol^{-1}$) indicate respectively that the adsorption process is spontaneous, endothermic, and physical adsorption.
This study compares the parafovea preview effect of adolescent group and adult group with different ages using eye tracking experiment. Also, this study confirms that the starting point parameter of the one boundary diffusion model can explain the data obtained through eye tracking experiments. In two experiments, parafoveal information processing was examined using the boundary technique. In Experiment 1, reading times were compared between the conditions given high frequency words preview versus masking preview. In Experiment 2, the condition in which low frequency words were given to parafovea preview information and the condition in which parafovea preview was masked were compared. We found that both the adolescent group and the adult group showed a parafovea preview effect. Also, first fixation, single fixation, and gaze duration of the two groups were different based on the word property shown in the parafovea. The first fixation data obtained in the two experiments were divided into quantiles and fitted into one boundary diffusion model. From the results, we argue that the parafovea preview information processing in the reading was described as the starting point parameter of the one boundary diffusion model.
It is recommended to use long-term hydrometeorological data for more than the service life of the hydraulic structures and water resource planning. For the purpose of expanding rainfall data, stochastic simulation models, such as Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (BLRP) and Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse (NSRP) models, have been widely used. The optimal parameters of the model can be estimated by repeatedly comparing the statistical moments defined through a combination of parameters of the probability distribution in the optimization context. However, parameter estimation using relatively small observed rainfall statistics corresponds to an ill-posed problem, leading to an increase in uncertainty in the parameter estimation process. In addition, as shown in previous studies, extreme values are underestimated because objective functions are typically defined by the first and second statistical moments (i.e., mean and variance). In this regard, this study estimated the parameters of the NSRP model using the objective function with the third moment and compared it with the existing approach based on the first and second moments in terms of estimation of extreme rainfall. It was found that the first and second moments did not show a significant difference depending on whether or not the skewness was considered in the objective function. However, the proposed model showed significantly improved performance in terms of estimation of design rainfalls.
Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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v.36
no.3
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pp.155-163
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2023
Real-time monitoring technology is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of nuclear power plant structures. However, the current seismic monitoring system has limited system identification capabilities such as modal parameter estimation. To obtain global behavior data and dynamic characteristics, multiple sensors must be optimally placed. Although several studies on optimal sensor placement have been conducted, they have primarily focused on civil and mechanical structures. Nuclear power plant structures require robust signals, even at low signal-to-noise ratios, and the robustness of each mode must be assessed separately. This is because the mode contributions of nuclear power plant containment buildings are concentrated in low-order modes. Therefore, this study proposes an optimal sensor placement methodology that can evaluate robustness against noise and the effects of each mode. Indicators, such as auto modal assurance criterion (MAC), cross MAC, and mode shape distribution by node were analyzed, and the suitability of the methodology was verified through numerical analysis.
The characteristics of the six rock cleavages(R1~H2) in Jurassic Hapcheon granite were analyzed using the distribution of ① microcrack lengths(N=230), ② microcrack spacings(N=150) and ③ Brazilian tensile strengths(N=30). The 18 cumulative graphs for these three factors measured in the directions parallel to the six rock cleavages were mutually contrasted. The main results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, the frequency ratio(%) of Brazilian tensile strength values(kg/㎠) divided into nine class intervals increases in the order of 60~70(3.3) < 140~150(6.7) < 100~110·110~120(10.0) < 90~100(13.3) < 80~90(16.7) < 120~130·130~140(20.0). The distribution curve of strength according to the frequency of each class interval shows a bimodal distribution. Second, the graphs for the length, spacing and tensile strength were arranged in the order of H2 < H1 < G2 < G1 < R2 < R1. Exponent difference(λS-λL, Δλ) between the two graphs for the spacing and length increases in the order of H2(-1.59) < H1(-0.02) < G2(0.25) < G1(0.63) < R2(1.59) < R1(1.96)(2 < 1). From the related chart, the six graphs for the tensile strength move gradually to the left direction with the increase of the above exponent difference. The negative slope(a) of the graphs for the tensile strength, suggesting a degree of uniformity of the texture, increases in the order of H((H1+H2)/2, 0.116) < G((G1+G2)/2, 0.125) < R((R1+R2)/2, 0.191). Third, the order of arrangement between the two graphs for the two directions that make up each rock cleavage(R1·R2(R), G1·G2(G), H1·H2(H)) were compared. The order of arrangement of the two graphs for the length and spacing is reverse order with each other. The two graphs for the spacing and tensile strength is mutually consistent in the order of arrangement. The exponent differences(ΔλL and ΔλS) for the length and spacing increase in the order of rift(R, -0.08) < grain(G, 0.14) < hardway(H, 0.75) and hardway(H, 0.16) < grain(G, 0.23) < rift(R, 0.45), respectively. Fourth, the general chart for the six graphs showing the distribution characteristics of the microcrack lengths, microcrack spacings and Brazilian tensile strengths were made. According to the range of length, the six graphs show orders of G2 < H2 < H1 < R2 < G1 < R1(< 7 mm) and G2 < H1 < H2 < R2 < G1 < R1(≦2.38 mm). The six graphs for the spacing intersect each other by forming a bottleneck near the point corresponding to the cumulative frequency of 12 and the spacing of 0.53 mm. Fifth, the six values of each parameter representing the six rock cleavages were arranged in the order of increasing and decreasing. Among the 8 parameters related to the length, the total length(Lt) and the graph(≦2.38 mm) are mutually congruent in order of arrangement. Among the 7 parameters related to the spacing, the frequency of spacing(N), the mean spacing(Sm) and the graph (≦5 mm) are mutually consistent in order of arrangement. In terms of order of arrangement, the values of the above three parameters for the spacing are consistent with the maximum tensile strengths belonging to group E. As shown in Table 8, the order of arrangement of these parameter values is useful for prior recognition of the six rock cleavages and the three quarrying planes.
Internet commerce has been growing at a rapid pace for the last decade. Many firms try to reach wider consumer markets by adding the Internet channel to the existing traditional channels. Despite the various benefits of the Internet channel, a significant number of firms failed in managing the new type of channel. Previous studies could not cleary explain these conflicting results associated with the Internet channel. One of the major reasons is most of the previous studies conducted analyses under a specific market condition and claimed that as the impact of Internet channel introduction. Therefore, their results are strongly influenced by the specific market settings. However, firms face various market conditions in the real worlddensity and disutility of using the Internet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of various market environments on a firm's optimal channel strategy by employing a flexible game theory model. We capture various market conditions with consumer density and disutility of using the Internet.
shows the channel structures analyzed in this study. Before the Internet channel is introduced, a monopoly manufacturer sells its products through an independent physical store. From this structure, the manufacturer could introduce its own Internet channel (MI). The independent physical store could also introduce its own Internet channel and coordinate it with the existing physical store (RI). An independent Internet retailer such as Amazon could enter this market (II). In this case, two types of independent retailers compete with each other. In this model, consumers are uniformly distributed on the two dimensional space. Consumer heterogeneity is captured by a consumer's geographical location (ci) and his disutility of using the Internet channel (${\delta}_{N_i}$).
shows various market conditions captured by the two consumer heterogeneities.
(a) illustrates a market with symmetric consumer distributions. The model captures explicitly the asymmetric distributions of consumer disutility in a market as well. In a market like that is represented in
(c), the average consumer disutility of using an Internet store is relatively smaller than that of using a physical store. For example, this case represents the market in which 1) the product is suitable for Internet transactions (e.g., books) or 2) the level of E-Commerce readiness is high such as in Denmark or Finland. On the other hand, the average consumer disutility when using an Internet store is relatively greater than that of using a physical store in a market like (b). Countries like Ukraine and Bulgaria, or the market for "experience goods" such as shoes, could be examples of this market condition.
summarizes the various scenarios of consumer distributions analyzed in this study. The range for disutility of using the Internet (${\delta}_{N_i}$) is held constant, while the range of consumer distribution (${\chi}_i$) varies from -25 to 25, from -50 to 50, from -100 to 100, from -150 to 150, and from -200 to 200.
summarizes the analysis results. As the average travel cost in a market decreases while the average disutility of Internet use remains the same, average retail price, total quantity sold, physical store profit, monopoly manufacturer profit, and thus, total channel profit increase. On the other hand, the quantity sold through the Internet and the profit of the Internet store decrease with a decreasing average travel cost relative to the average disutility of Internet use. We find that a channel that has an advantage over the other kind of channel serves a larger portion of the market. In a market with a high average travel cost, in which the Internet store has a relative advantage over the physical store, for example, the Internet store becomes a mass-retailer serving a larger portion of the market. This result implies that the Internet becomes a more significant distribution channel in those markets characterized by greater geographical dispersion of buyers, or as consumers become more proficient in Internet usage. The results indicate that the degree of price discrimination also varies depending on the distribution of consumer disutility in a market. The manufacturer in a market in which the average travel cost is higher than the average disutility of using the Internet has a stronger incentive for price discrimination than the manufacturer in a market where the average travel cost is relatively lower. We also find that the manufacturer has a stronger incentive to maintain a high price level when the average travel cost in a market is relatively low. Additionally, the retail competition effect due to Internet channel introduction strengthens as average travel cost in a market decreases. This result indicates that a manufacturer's channel power relative to that of the independent physical retailer becomes stronger with a decreasing average travel cost. This implication is counter-intuitive, because it is widely believed that the negative impact of Internet channel introduction on a competing physical retailer is more significant in a market like Russia, where consumers are more geographically dispersed, than in a market like Hong Kong, that has a condensed geographic distribution of consumers. illustrates how this happens. When mangers consider the overall impact of the Internet channel, however, they should consider not only channel power, but also sales volume. When both are considered, the introduction of the Internet channel is revealed as more harmful to a physical retailer in Russia than one in Hong Kong, because the sales volume decrease for a physical store due to Internet channel competition is much greater in Russia than in Hong Kong. The results show that manufacturer is always better off with any type of Internet store introduction. The independent physical store benefits from opening its own Internet store when the average travel cost is higher relative to the disutility of using the Internet. Under an opposite market condition, however, the independent physical retailer could be worse off when it opens its own Internet outlet and coordinates both outlets (RI). This is because the low average travel cost significantly reduces the channel power of the independent physical retailer, further aggravating the already weak channel power caused by myopic inter-channel price coordination. The results implies that channel members and policy makers should explicitly consider the factors determining the relative distributions of both kinds of consumer disutility, when they make a channel decision involving an Internet channel. These factors include the suitability of a product for Internet shopping, the level of E-Commerce readiness of a market, and the degree of geographic dispersion of consumers in a market. Despite the academic contributions and managerial implications, this study is limited in the following ways. First, a series of numerical analyses were conducted to derive equilibrium solutions due to the complex forms of demand functions. In the process, we set up V=100, ${\lambda}$=1, and ${\beta}$=0.01. Future research may change this parameter value set to check the generalizability of this study. Second, the five different scenarios for market conditions were analyzed. Future research could try different sets of parameter ranges. Finally, the model setting allows only one monopoly manufacturer in the market. Accommodating competing multiple manufacturers (brands) would generate more realistic results.
The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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v.25
no.3A
/
pp.352-361
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2000
The performance of a multi-carrier CDMA system is analyzed considering frequency selective multipath fading and Near/Far effects. The number of multicarrier, multiuser, and arms of RAKE receiver, and the decay ratio of frequency selective multipath fading are used as a parameter for the performance analysis. More over, the distribution and the strength of multiuser interference are also considered. To evaluate the Near/Far effects in a multi-carrier CDMA system, three distribution models are assumed. In the first model, interference to carrier Ratio, I/C, ranges from -4 dB to 4dB, and at each 2 dB interval, 20 % of multiuser is assumed to be uniformly distributed. In the second one, I/C ranges from -2 dB to 2 dB, and 33.3% of multiuser is assumed to be equally dispersed at each 2dB interval. The third model is 0 dB of I/C, that is, with perfect power control, multiuser are assumed to be evenly located. In this paper, multi-carrier CDMA system adoption RAKE receiver is proposed to mitigate the frequency selective multipath fading. From the results, the third model(i.e. perfect power control) shows the best performance, and the narrower range of I/C causes the less effects to the desired signal, which reads to the better performance.
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
/
v.34
no.5
/
pp.1421-1433
/
2014
In this study, appropriate probability distribution and parameter estimation method were selected to perform snowfall frequency analysis. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Probability Weighted Moment Method (PWMM) appeared to be the best fit for snowfall frequency analysis in Korea. Snowfall frequency analysis applying GEV and PWMM were performed for 69 stations in Korea. Peak snowfall corresponding to recurrence intervals were estimated based on frequency analysis while snow loads were calculated using the estimated peak snowfall and specific weight of snow. Design snow load map was developed using 100-year recurrence interval snow load of 69 stations through Kriging of ArcGIS. The 2009 Korean Building Code and Commentary for design snow load was assessed by comparing the design snow loads which calculated in this study. As reflected in the results, most regions are required to increase the design snow loads. Thus, design snow loads and the map were developed from based on the results. The developed design snow load map is expected to be useful in the design of building structures against heavy snow loading throughout Korea most especially in ungaged areas.
Park, Jung-Wook;Lee, Yong-Ki;Song, Jae-Joon;Choi, Byung-Hee
Tunnel and Underground Space
/
v.22
no.2
/
pp.106-119
/
2012
Roughness of rock joint has generally been characterized based upon geometrical aspects of a two-dimensional surface profile. The appropriate description of joint roughness, however, should consider the features of roughness mobilization at contact areas under normal and shear loads. In this study, direct shear tests were conducted on the replicas of tensile fractured gneiss joints and the influence of the shear direction on the shear behavior and effective roughness was examined. In this procedure, a joint surface was represented as a group of triangular planes, and the steepness of each plane was characterized using the concepts of the active and inactive micro-slope angles. The contact areas at peak strength which were estimated by a numerical method showed that the locations of the contact areas were mainly dependent on the distribution of the micro-slope angle and the shear behavior of joint was dominated by only the fractions with active micro-slope angles. Therefore, a three-dimensional coefficient for the quantification of rock joint roughness is proposed based on the distribution of active micro-slope angle: active roughness coefficient, $C_r$. Comparison of the active roughness coefficient and the peak shear strength obtained from the experiment suggests that the active roughness coefficient is the effective parameter to quantify the surface roughness and estimate the shear behavior of rock joint.
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