• 응용통계연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.87-100
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• 2003

서로 연관관계에 있는 실제의 통계자료들은 동태적, 확률적 동시발생적으로 유발되며, 이로 인해 한 자료의 변동이 다른 자료에 미치는 영향은 같은 기간 뿐 아니라 시차를 두고 여러 기간에 걸쳐 지속되며 조정되어 간다. 그러나 일반적인 선형, 비선형 통계모형을 사용하여 현실동향을 분석하는 경우 자료의 이러한 특성에서 오는 시차관계를 통상 무시함으로써 변수 사이의 관계는 같은 기간 내에 결정되어야 하는 제약이 가해지게 된다. 그 결과 시간이 흐름에 따라 이들의 관계가 변화하는 과정이나 한 변수의 변동이 다른 변수에 미치는 장기적 영향도 추정할 수 없을 뿐 아니라 현실여건의 변동이나 전개과정을 설명하는 데도 큰 결함을 갖게 된다. 시차관계가 존재하는 변수에 실제 여건에 합당한 시차구조가 설정되면 현실이 정확히 반영되고, 모형에 내재된 변수들의 장단기 변동상황과 동태적 적응과정이 파악됨과 동시에 다양한 분석이 가능해지므로 모형의 활용도는 높아지게 된다.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.119-130
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 가상유역에 대한 분포형 모형의 적용을 통해 다양한 유역 및 유출조건에서도 적용 가능한 저류함수법의 매개변수를 추정하기 위한 범용모형을 개발하였다. 기존의 매개변수 추정식은 대부분 한정된 조건의 관측자료에 기초하고 있어 실제 유출에 영향을 미치는 인자를 민감하게 고려하기 힘든 문제점이 있었다. 약 35,000회의 다양한 조건을 고려한 유출모의 결과를 기초로 이를 가장 잘 반영해 줄 수 있는 매개변수 모형을 구성한 결과 저류함수법의 지체시간은 주로 유역내 가장 긴 유로의 특성과 밀접한 관련이 있고, 저류상수의 경우 유역의 특성들과 관련성이 높은 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국지역사회생활과학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.75-85
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• 2015

This study investigates the impact of livestock diseases, including FMD(foot-and-mouth disease) and MCD(mad-cow disease), on pork demand in Korea. TV news stories about the livestock diseases were considered as negative advertising, and therefore the carry-over effect of negative advertising was combined with the pork demand model in conjunction with an exponential distributed lag function. The asymmetry hypothesis was imposed, however it was accepted that demand response does not show different sensitivities to increases and decreases in the livestock disease news. FMD news had a negative effect on pork demand, whereas MCD news had a positive effect, yet FMD news had a greater effect on pork demand than MCD news. The pork demand elasticity estimates for FMD and MCD news were -0.0071 and 0.0028, respectively. The cross-elasticity of the imported beef price to pork demand was highly inelastic, but it was elastic during the beef import embargo.

• 한국산업정보학회논문지
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.87-96
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• 2014

마크업은 Hall(1988)에 의해 한계비용에 대한 가격의 비율로 정의된 이후, 신케인지언들은 시장구조와 경기변동 사이의 관계를 설명하는 데에 마크업의 개념을 이용하여 왔다. 여러 문헌에서 마크업이 경기역행적임을 나타내는 이론모형이 제시되었으며, 실증증적으로 대부분의 연구는 마크업이 경제전체적으로 또는 산업별로 경기역행적임을 밝히고 있다. 또한 한국의 경우 마크업에 관한 대부분의 연구에서 분석대상은 주로 제조산업에 집중된 반면, 특히 서비스산업에서 산업구조의 특성을 밝히는 실증적 분석은 연구가 매우 저조하다고 할 수 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 한국의 5개 서비스산업을 대상으로 마크업의 실증모형을 작성하고 직접적으로 5개의 서비스 산업의 마크업을 측정하고 마크업의 결정요인들을 자기회귀시차모형(ADL(1,1))을 이용하여 분석하였다.

• Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.315-331
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• 2019

The stiffness degradation of the cross-ply composite laminates containing a transverse cracking and delamination in $90^{\circ}$ layer is predicted by using a modified shear-lag model by introducing the stress perturbation function. The prediction shows better agreement with the experimental results published by Ogihara and Takeda 1995, especially for laminates with thicker $90^{\circ}$ plies in which extensive delamination occurs. A homogenised analytic model for average transient moisture uptake in composite laminates containing periodically distributed matrix cracks and delamination is presented. It is shown that the model well describes the moisture absorption in a cross-ply composite laminate containing periodically distributed transverse matrix cracks in the $90^{\circ}$ plies. The obtained results represent well the dependence of the stiffness degradation on the crack density, thickness ratio and moisture absorption. The present study has proved to be important to the understanding of the degradation of the material propertiesin the failure process when the laminates in which the delamination grows extensively.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제90권2호
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• pp.210-216
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• 2001

우리나라에 전국적으로 분포하고 중요한 산림자원인 소나무(Pinus densiflora S. et Z.)의 직경 및 수고 생장함수를 유도하였다. 모형 유도방법은 두 측정간격 $T_1$과 $T_2$를 필요로 하는 대수 차분 방정식을 이용하였고, 데이터 이용의 극대화를 위하여 SAS에서 Lag와 Put 문장을 사용한 프로그램을 이용하여 모든 가능한 생장 측정 기간을 포함하는 데이터를 사용하였다. 적용된 동형 및 다형 차분 방정식 중 Schumacher 다형 방정식이 직경 생장을 추정하는데 적합한 것으로 나타났고, 수고 생장 추정은 Gompertz 다형식이 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 보다 정밀한 추정을 위해서는 이들 식에 생물학적인 변수들을 동반한 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.5-17
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• 2017

The main objective of the study is to measure the vulnerability of Indonesia's financial system stability in response to external shocks, including from regional economies namely three biggest Indonesia major trading partners (China, the U.S and Japan) and other external factors (oil price and the federal funds rate). Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Orthogonalized Impulse Response Function (OIRF) with quarterly data over the period Q4 2002 - Q1 2016, results confirm that, 1) oil price response has the largest effect to Indonesia financial stability system and the effect period is the longest compared to others, represented by NPL and IHSG; 2) among those three economies, only China's economic growth has significantly positive effect to Indonesia financial stability system. Based on the findings it is better for the authorities to: 1) Diversify international trade commodities by decreasing share of oil, gas, and mining export and boosting other potential sectors such as manufacture, and fisheries; 2) Ensure the survival of Indonesia large coal exporter companies without neglecting burden of national budget; and 3) Create buffer for demand shock from specific countries by diversifying and increasing share of trading from other countries particularly from ASEAN member states.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.325-334
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• 2021

This study aims to investigate whether economic growth is elevated by banking industry development in Jordan. The study adopts time-series econometric methodologies, which comprise the bounds testing approach within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the conditional causality analysis. Consistent with the assumptions of the adopted methodology, the study utilized annual time-series data for a relatively long period of thirty-nine years, between 1980 and 2018. The empirical results show that Jordan's economic growth is strongly responsive in respect to any changes in banking industry development. Also, the results reveal the harmful impact of rising lending interest rate; as this rate increases, economic growth will decrease. The findings are in line with the conceptual arguments of the supply-leading hypothesis, which confirmed that banking development is considered as one of the main pillars that have stimulating effects on economic growth. The evidence of the current study may provide important implications for policymakers and bankers. Those professionals should work to maintain a stable regulatory system that enhances the banking system function in activating economic growth. Also, a considerable focus should be placed on designing a steady interest rate policy to avoid the inherently undesirable impacts of high-interest rates on the Jordanian economy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.165-170
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• 2021

This paper examines the long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The effective function of financial development is crucial to promote the economic development of the country. To achieve the objective, this study used Gross Domestic Product as a dependent variable and Credit to The Private Sector, Ratio of the Gross Fixed Capital Formation to GDP, Trade, Consumer Price Index and Labour Force as an independent variable. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic (ADF) to check the stationary. Bounds test for cointegration and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Models (ARDL) are used to check cointegrating relationship amongst the variables and causality between financial development and economic growth. Moreover, the Model selection method is Akaike Info Criterion (AIC). This result demonstrates that the labor force and trade hold a significantly negative relationship with economic growth. Nevertheless, inflation, Credit to The Private Sector, and Ratio of the Gross Fixed Capital Formation to GDP show a significantly positive relationship with economic growth. Therefore, there is a statistically significant relationship between Financial Development and Economic growth in Sri Lanka and the Sri Lankan government should reform its trade policies.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권7호
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• pp.393-402
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• 2021

This study aims to examine whether symmetric effects or asymmetric effects of exchange rates exist in determining the money demand in Indonesia. Simple-sum money and Divisia money were included in different models for comparison due to the financial developments in Indonesia. This study uses time-series data from 1996Q1 to 2019Q4 for the estimation. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is utilized to verify the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on money demand. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests were performed to verify the order of integration of the variables. The findings of this study revealed that the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of money demand in Indonesia and the effect is asymmetric. The findings further indicated that money demand function, which incorporates Divisia monetary aggregate is parsimonious. Monetary targets such as money supply and interest rates are critical for monetary policy conduct to achieve inflation levels set by government. As the adoption of an inflation targeting framework needs to be in keeping with the flexible exchange rate system, the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes can be used in exchange rate policy conduct to achieve financial system and price stability.