• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2001

Present-day rules and regulations for the design and construction of ships are almost without exemption of a prescriptive and deterministic nature. Often it is argued that this situation is far from ideal; it does no right to the advances, which have been made during the past decades in engineering tools in marine technology, both in methodology and in computational power. Within IMO this has been realized for some time and has resulted in proposals to use Formal Safety Assessment(FSA) as a tool to improve and to modernize the rule making process. The present paper makes use of elements of the FSA methodology, but instead of working towards generic regulations or requirements, a Risk Assessment Approach, not unlike a 'safety case'; valid for a certain ship or type of ship is worked out. Delft University of Technology investigated the application of safely assessment procedures in ship design, in co-operation with Anthony Veder Shipowners and safety experts from Safely Service Center BV. The ship considered is a semi-pressurized-fully refrigerated LPG carrier. On the basis of the assumption that a major accident occurs, various accident, scenarios were considered and assessed, which would impair the safety of the carrier. In a so-called Risk Matrix, in which accident frequencies versus the consequence of the scenarios are depicted, the calculated risks all appeared lo be in the ALARP('as low as reasonable practicable') region. A number of design alternatives were compared, both on safety merits and cost-effectiveness. The experience gained with this scenario-based approach will be used to establish a set of general requirements for safety assessment techniques in ship design. In the view that assessment results will be most probably presented in a quasi-quantified manner, the requirements are concerned with uniformity of both the safety assessment. These requirements make it possible that valid comparison between various assessment studies can be made. Safety assessment, founded on these requirements, provides a validated and helpful source of data during the coming years, and provides naval architects and engineers with tools experience and data for safety assessment procedures in ship design. However a lot of effort has to be spent in order to make the methods applicable in day-to-day practice.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제89권4호
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• pp.399-409
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• 2024

Assessment of existing concrete bridges is a challenge for owners. It has greater economic impact when compared to designing new bridges. When using conventional linear analyses, judgment of the engineer is required to understand the behavior of redundant structures after the first element in the structural system reaches its ultimate capacity. The alternative is to use a predictive tool such as advanced nonlinear finite element analyses (ANFEA) to assess the overall structural behavior. This paper proposes a new reliability framework for the assessment of existing bridge structures using ANFEA. A general framework defined in previous works, accounting for material uncertainties and concrete model performance, is adapted to the context of the assessment of existing bridges. A "shifted" reliability problem is defined under the assumption of quasi-deterministic dead load effects. The overall exercise is viewed as a progressive pushover analysis up to structural failure, where the actual safety index is compared at each event to a target reliability index.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.795-800
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• 2009

Railway safety is one aspect of the transport service quality delivered to passengers, employees and third parties. To improve safety by a cultural shift from a deterministic to a risk based approach, European Railway Agency (ERA) introduces common and transparent methods to monitor safety performance and set targets and establishes safety management systems. The objective of this study is to review the common safety performance management method of the ERA(European Railway Agency) for it's application to the Korea railway. For this end, the risk assessment models were developed based on the accident scenarios and domestic railway accidents had been investigated and quantitative and qualitative analyses was performed using the developed information system.

• 농약과학회지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.110-115
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 우리나라 소비자를 대상으로 우리나라에서 재배된 과채류 섭취를 통한 neonicotinoid계 농약의 노출량을 확률적 접근법을 이용하여 평가하였다. 농약 잔류량을 2009년에 수행된 과채류 중 neonicotinoid계 농약 5종(acetamiprid, clothianidin, imidacloprid, thiacloprid, thiamethoxam)에 대한 모니터링 자료를 이용하였다. Neonicotinoid계 농약의 총 노출량을 개별 과채류별로 구분하여 확률적 평가를 실시한 결과 neonicotinoid계 농약 5종의 총 노출량의 극단값은 0.087~0.236 ${\mu}g$/kg/day의 범위를 보였다. 확정론적 접근법의 결과와 비교했을 때 총 노출량의 평균치는 거의 유사하게 나타났으며, 노출량의 $95^{th}$ percentile값에 서는 확률적 접근법의 결과가 확정론적 접근법의 결과에 비해 38.8 ~ 62.0%의 수준으로 낮게 나타났다. 총 노출량에 대한 민감도 분석을 실시한 결과, acetamiprid의 총 노출량은 딸기 섭취를 통한 노출량에 크게 영향을 받으며, 특히 딸기의 섭취량 보다는 딸기 중 acetamiprid 잔류량 수준에 더 크게 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 thiacloprid를 제외한 나머지 3종의 neonicotinoid계 농약에서 유사한 경향을 보였다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.249-265
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• 2017

An efficient and accurate algorithm is proposed to estimate flutter safety factor of suspension bridges satisfying prescribed reliability levels. Uncertainties which arise from the basic wind speed at the bridge deck location, critical flutter velocity, the wind conversion factor from a scaled model to the prototype structure and the gust speed factor are incorporated. The proposed algorithm integrates the concepts of the inverse reliability method and the calculation method of the critical flutter velocity of suspension bridges. The unique feature of the proposed method is that it offers a tool for flutter safety assessment of suspension bridges, when the reliability level is specified as a target to be satisfied by the designer. Accuracy and efficiency of this method with reference to three example suspension bridges is studied and numerical results validate its superiority over conventional deterministic method. Finally, the effects of various parameters on the flutter safety factor of suspension bridges are also investigated.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.67-75
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• 1997

This paper presents a study on the application of Asynchronous Team(A-Team) theory for QVC(Reactive power control) and security assessment in a power system. Reactive power control problem is the one of optimally establishing voltage level given reactive power sources, which is very important problem to supply the demand without interruption and needs methods to alleviate a bus voltage limit violation more quickly. It can be formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming(MILP) problem without deteriorating of solution accuracy to a certain extent. The security assessment is to estimate the relative robustness of the system and deterministic approach based on AC load flow calculations is adopted to assess it, especially voltage security. A distance measure, as a measurement for voltage security, is introduced. In order to analyze the above two problem, reactive power control and static security assessment, In an integrated fashion, a new organizational structure, called an A-team, is adopted. An A-team is well-suited to the development of computer-based, multi-agent systems for operation of large-scaled power systems. In order to verify the usefulness of the suggested scheme herein, modified IEEE 30 bus system is employed as a sample system. The results of a case study are also presented.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.271-279
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• 2018

Purpose: Probabilistic safety analysis was performed to enhance the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants because traditional deterministic approach has limitations in predicting the risk of failure by crack growth. The study introduces a probabilistic approach to establish a basis for probabilistic safety assessment of passive components. Methods: For probabilistic modeling of fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR), various FCGR tests were performed either under constant load amplitude or constant ${\Delta}K$ conditions by using heat treated X-750 at low temperature with adequate cathodic polarization. Bayesian inference was employed to update uncertainties of the FCGR model using additional information obtained from constant ${\Delta}K$ tests. Results: Four steps of Bayesian parameter updating were performed using constant ${\Delta}K$ test results. The standard deviation of the final posterior distribution was decreased by a factor of 10 comparing with that of the prior distribution. Conclusion: The method for developing a probabilistic crack growth model has been designed and demonstrated, in the paper. Alloy X-750 has been used for corrosion fatigue crack growth experiments and modeling. The uncertainties of parameters in the FCGR model were successfully reduced using the Bayesian inference whenever the updating was performed.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2007년도 춘계학술대회A
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• pp.309-314
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• 2007

Recently, the LRFD and the PSF based on structural reliability assessment have been applied to NPP designs in behalf of the conventional deterministic design methods. In the risk-informed structural integrity, it is especially possible to optimize design procedures considering cost, manufacturing and maintenance because the structural reliability concepts have confirmed the reliability for which a designer aims. Generally, in order to evaluate the PSF, the LRFD which is the design concept for evaluating safety factors respectively on the limit state function including load and resistance. This study certifies the concept and its applications of the PSF using the LRFD based on the structural reliability engineering.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.95-106
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• 2019

원전 해체를 준비함에 있어 정성적 또는 정량적 위험도 평가는 필수요소이다. 해체 공정간 발생하는 방사선학적 및 비방사선학적 위험요소는 해체 작업자 및 대중의 안전을 보장하기 위해 사전에 평가되어야 한다. 현재 해체 경험이 많은 미국의 기존 사업자들 및 NRC의 경우 위험의 중대성만 평가하는 결정론적 위험도 평가에 집중하고 있다. 하지만 최근 IAEA는 위험도 매트릭스를 활용한 위험도평가를 결정론적 위험도 평가의 대체안으로 제안하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 위험도평가에 앞서 해체 공정 별 해체 활동을 Risk Breakdown Structure에 맞추어 정리하였고, 미국 20여개 해체 원전에서 해체 공정별 위험도 평가 시행 중 선정한 해체 활동간 잠재적 사고를 해체 활동에 맞게 체계적으로 정리하였다. 그리고 복합 리스크 매트릭스를 개발 및 활용하여 해체 공정간 방사선학적 및 비방사선학적 위험요소의 위험도를 평가하여 정량적으로 수치화 하였다.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제20권12호
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• pp.2124-2135
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• 2006

In this paper, the reliability estimation of pipelines is performed by employing the probabilistic method, which accounts for the uncertainties in the load and resistance parameters of the limit state function. The FORM (first order reliability method) and the SORM (second order reliability method) are carried out to estimate the failure probability of pipeline utilizing the FAD (failure assessment diagram). And the reliability of pipeline is assessed by using this failure probability and analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the FORM and the SORM. It is noted that the failure probability increases with the increase of dent depth, gouge depth, operating pressure, outside radius, and the decrease of wall thickness. It is found that the FORM utilizing the FAD is a useful and is an efficient method to estimate the failure probability in the reliability assessment of a pipeline. Furthermore, the pipeline safety assessment technique with the deterministic procedure utilizing the FAD only is turned out more conservative than those obtained by using the probability theory together with the FAD. The probabilistic method such as the FORM, the SORM and the MCS can be used by most plant designers regarding the operating condition and design parameters.