• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.7-17
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• 2005

The determination of seismic velocities in refractors for near-surface seismic refraction investigations is an ill-posed problem. Small variations in the computed time parameters can result in quite large lateral variations in the derived velocities, which are often artefacts of the inversion algorithms. Such artefacts are usually not recognized or corrected with forward modelling. Therefore, if detailed refractor models are sought with model based inversion, then detailed starting models are required. The usual source of artefacts in seismic velocities is irregular refractors. Under most circumstances, the variable migration of the generalized reciprocal method (GRM) is able to accommodate irregular interfaces and generate detailed starting models of the refractor. However, where the very-near-surface environment of the Earth is also irregular, the efficacy of the GRM is reduced, and weathering corrections can be necessary. Standard methods for correcting for surface irregularities are usually not practical where the very-near-surface irregularities are of limited lateral extent. In such circumstances, the GRM smoothing statics method (SSM) is a simple and robust approach, which can facilitate more-accurate estimates of refractor velocities. The GRM SSM generates a smoothing 'statics' correction by subtracting an average of the time-depths computed with a range of XY values from the time-depths computed with a zero XY value (where the XY value is the separation between the receivers used to compute the time-depth). The time-depths to the deeper target refractors do not vary greatly with varying XY values, and therefore an average is much the same as the optimum value. However, the time-depths for the very-near-surface irregularities migrate laterally with increasing XY values and they are substantially reduced with the averaging process. As a result, the time-depth profile averaged over a range of XY values is effectively corrected for the near-surface irregularities. In addition, the time-depths computed with a Bero XY value are the sum of both the near-surface effects and the time-depths to the target refractor. Therefore, their subtraction generates an approximate 'statics' correction, which in turn, is subtracted from the traveltimes The GRM SSM is essentially a smoothing procedure, rather than a deterministic weathering correction approach, and it is most effective with near-surface irregularities of quite limited lateral extent. Model and case studies demonstrate that the GRM SSM substantially improves the reliability in determining detailed seismic velocities in irregular refractors.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.228-240
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• 2018

Solar energy is calculated using meteorological (14 station), ceilometer (2 station) and microwave radiometer (MWR, 7 station)) data observed from the Weather Information Service Engine (WISE) on the Seoul metropolitan area. The cloud optical thickness and the cloud fraction are calculated using the back-scattering coefficient (BSC) of the ceilometer and liquid water path of the MWR. The solar energy on the surface is calculated using solar radiation model with cloud fraction from the ceilometer and the MWR. The estimated solar energy is underestimated compared to observations both at Jungnang and Gwanghwamun stations. In linear regression analysis, the slope is less than 0.8 and the bias is negative which is less than $-20W/m^2$. The estimated solar energy using MWR is more improved (i.e., deterministic coefficient (average $R^2=0.8$) and Root Mean Square Error (average $RMSE=110W/m^2$)) than when using ceilometer. The monthly cloud fraction and solar energy calculated by ceilometer is greater than 0.09 and lower than $50W/m^2$ compared to MWR. While there is a difference depending on the locations, RMSE of estimated solar radiation is large over $50W/m^2$ in July and September compared to other months. As a result, the estimation of a daily accumulated solar radiation shows the highest correlation at Gwanghwamun ($R^2=0.80$, RMSE=2.87 MJ/day) station and the lowest correlation at Gooro ($R^2=0.63$, RMSE=4.77 MJ/day) station.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.31-62
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• 1989

By using deterministic dynamic models, we observe the behavior of the foreign exchange rate of a small open economy with rational expectation formation and different restrictions on the international economic integrations. First, an economy connected to the world by purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity is studied in the next section. In both sections, financial assets available in the economy are domestic money and bonds. Stocks are added as a financial instrument in the next section, and real capital accumulation is also taken into account. Furthermore, the economy concerned there is fairly autonomous, and not directly governed by either purchasing power parity or uncovered interest parity. The expectation formation used throughout the whole paper is complete perfect foresight, which is the certainty version of rational expectation and free from any forecast errors. It is found that upon monetary expansion the short run depreciation of the foreign exchange rate is a fairly robust result regardless of the degree of the international economic integration, while it is not true for fiscal expansion. The expectation on the long run state significantly affects the short run response of the exchange rate. All of our models postulate that the current account should be balanced eventually. As the result, the short run behavior of the exchange rate is affected by the expectation on the long run balance and may well be a blend of the traditional flow view and modem asset view. The initial overshooting of the exchange rate is easily observed even in the fairly autonomous economy Furthermore, the initial overshooting is not reduced over time, but augmented for some time before it is eventually eliminated. As long as we maintain rational expectaion, introducing time delay in the adjustment of the foreign goods price to the foreign exchange rate does not make much difference.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.915-929
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• 2023

Improvements in people's quality of life, diversification of leisure activities, and changes in population structure have led to an increase in the demand for tourism and an expansion of the diversification of tourism activities. In particular, for coastal cities where land and marine tourism elements coexist, various factors influence their tourism demands. Tourism requires the construction of infrastructure and content development according to the demand at the tourist destination. This study aims to improve the prediction accuracy and explore influencing factors through time series analysis of tourism scale using agent-based data. Basic local governments in the Busan area were examined, and the data used were the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption on a monthly basis. The univariate time series analysis, which is a deterministic model, was used along with the SARIMAX analysis to identify the influencing factor. The tourism consumption propensity, focusing on the consumption amount according to business types and the amount of mentions on SNS, was set as the influencing factor. The difference in accuracy (RMSE standard) between the time series models that did and did not consider COVID-19 was found to be very wide, ranging from 1.8 times to 32.7 times by region. Additionally, considering the influencing factor, the tourism consumption business type and SNS trends were found to significantly impact the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption. Therefore, to predict future demand, external influences as well as the tourists' consumption tendencies and interests in terms of local tourism must be considered. This study aimed to predict future tourism demand in a coastal city such as Busan and identify factors affecting tourism scale, thereby contributing to policy decision-making to prepare tourism demand in consideration of government tourism policies and tourism trends.