• Title/Summary/Keyword: deterioration prediction

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Region-Scaled Soil Erosion Assessment using USLE and WEPP in Korea

  • Kim, Min-Kyeong;Jung, Kang-Ho;Yun, Sun-Gang;Kim, Chul-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.314-320
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    • 2008
  • During the summer season, more than half of the annual precipitation in Korea occurs during the summer season due to the geographical location in the Asian monsoon belt. So, this causes severe soil erosion from croplands, which is directly linked to the deterioration of crop/land productivity and surface water quality. Therefore, much attention has been given to develop accurate estimation tools of soil erosion. The aim of this study is to assess the performance of using the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and the physical-based model of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) to quantify eroded amount of soil from agricultural fields. Input data files, including climate, soil, slope, and cropping management, were modified to fit into Korean conditions. Chuncheon (forest) and Jeonju (level-plain) were selected as two Korean cities with different topographic characteristics for model analysis. The results of this current study indicated that better soil erosion prediction can be achieved using the WEPP model since it has better power to illustrate a higher degree of spatial variability than USLE in topography, precipitation, soils, and crop management practices. These present findings are expected to contribute to the development of the environmental assessment program as well as the conservation of the agricultural environment in Korea.

Analysis of Inner Temperature in High Strength Concrete under Standard Temperature-time Curve (표준화재곡선에 의한 고강도 콘크리트 부재의 내부온도 예측)

  • Song, Hun;Lee, Sea-Hyun;Mun, Kyung-Ju;Do, Jeong-Yun;Soh, Yang-Seob
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.469-472
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    • 2005
  • With all ensuring the fire resistance structure as a method of setting the required cover thickness to fire, the RC is significantly affected from the standpoint of its structural stability that the compressive strength and elastic modulus is reduced by fire. Normally, the degradation of concrete member exposed to fire is largely dependent on the fire scale and fire condition. There is therefore a need to precisely predict the deterioration and fire damage of the exposed member. Thus, this work estimated the temperature distribution inside a member taking into consideration of the thermal properties by means of finite element method(FEM). The estimation results in a little higher prediction value than the experimental value in surface layer and is almost coincident with the experiment as the heating depth increase. From this work it can be known that the simulation application of FEM using the thermal properties of concrete member in high temperature gives rise to the confident prediction in the prediction of temperature distribution.

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Prediction of RC structure service life from field long term chloride diffusion

  • Safehian, Majid;Ramezanianpour, Ali Akbar
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.589-606
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    • 2015
  • It is well-documented that the major deterioration of coastal RC structures is chloride-induced corrosion. Therefore, regional investigations are necessary for durability based design and evaluation of the proposed service life prdiction models. In this paper, four reinforced concrete jetties exposed to severe marine environment were monitored to assess the long term chloride penetration at 6 months to 96 months. Also, some accelerated durability tests were performed on standard samples in laboratory. As a result, two time-dependent equations are proposed for basic parameters of chloride diffusion into concrete and then the corrosion initiation time is estimated by a developed probabilistic service life model Also, two famous service life prediction models are compared using chloride profiles obtained from structures after about 40 years in the tidal exposure conditions. The results confirm that the influence of concrete quality on diffusion coefficients is related to the concrete pore structure and the time dependence is due to chemical reactions of sea water ions with hydration products which lead a reduction in pore structure. Also, proper attention to the durability properties of concrete may extend the service life of marine structures greater than fifty years, even in harsh environments.

Predicting the Number of People for Meals of an Institutional Foodservice by Applying Machine Learning Methods: S City Hall Case (기계학습방법을 활용한 대형 집단급식소의 식수 예측: S시청 구내직원식당의 실데이터를 기반으로)

  • Jeon, Jongshik;Park, Eunju;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of the Korean Dietetic Association
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.44-58
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    • 2019
  • Predicting the number of meals in a foodservice organization is an important decision-making process that is essential for successful food production, such as reducing the amount of residue, preventing menu quality deterioration, and preventing rising costs. Compared to other demand forecasts, the menu of dietary personnel includes diverse menus, and various dietary supplements include a range of side dishes. In addition to the menus, diverse subjects for prediction are very difficult problems. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to establish a method for predicting the number of meals including predictive modeling and considering various factors in addition to menus which are actually used in the field. For this purpose, 63 variables in eight categories such as the daily available number of people for the meals, the number of people in the time series, daily menu details, weekdays or seasons, days before or after holidays, weather and temperature, holidays or year-end, and events were identified as decision variables. An ensemble model using six prediction models was then constructed to predict the number of meals. As a result, the prediction error rate was reduced from 10%~11% to approximately 6~7%, which was expected to reduce the residual amount by approximately 40%.

Assessment of seismic damage inspection and empirical vulnerability probability matrices for masonry structure

  • Li, Si-Qi;Chen, Yong-Sheng;Liu, Hong-Bo;Du, Ke;Chi, Bo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.387-399
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    • 2022
  • To study the seismic damage of masonry structures and understand the characteristics of the multi-intensity region, according to the Dujiang weir urbanization of China Wenchuan earthquake, the deterioration of 3991 masonry structures was summarized and statistically analysed. First, the seismic damage of multistory masonry structures in this area was investigated. The primary seismic damage of components was as follows: Damage of walls, openings, joints of longitudinal and transverse walls, windows (lower) walls, and tie columns. Many masonry structures with seismic designs were basically intact. Second, according to the main factors of construction, seismic intensity code levels survey, and influence on the seismic capacity, a vulnerability matrix calculation model was proposed to establish a vulnerability prediction matrix, and a comparative analysis was made based on the empirical seismic damage investigation matrix. The vulnerability prediction matrix was established using the proposed vulnerability matrix calculation model. The fitting relationship between the vulnerability prediction matrix and the actual seismic damage investigation matrix was compared and analysed. The relationship curves of the mean damage index for macrointensity and ground motion parameters were drawn through calculation and analysis, respectively. The numerical analysis was performed based on actual ground motion observation records, and fitting models of PGA, PGV, and MSDI were proposed.

Development of Prediction Model of Chloride Diffusion Coefficient using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 염화물 확산계수 예측모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyun-Su
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2023
  • Chloride is one of the most common threats to reinforced concrete (RC) durability. Alkaline environment of concrete makes a passive layer on the surface of reinforcement bars that prevents the bar from corrosion. However, when the chloride concentration amount at the reinforcement bar reaches a certain level, deterioration of the passive protection layer occurs, causing corrosion and ultimately reducing the structure's safety and durability. Therefore, understanding the chloride diffusion and its prediction are important to evaluate the safety and durability of RC structure. In this study, the chloride diffusion coefficient is predicted by machine learning techniques. Various machine learning techniques such as multiple linear regression, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine, artificial neural networks, extreme gradient boosting annd k-nearest neighbor were used and accuracy of there models were compared. In order to evaluate the accuracy, root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used as prediction performance indices. The k-fold cross-validation procedure was used to estimate the performance of machine learning models when making predictions on data not used during training. Grid search was applied to hyperparameter optimization. It has been shown from numerical simulation that ensemble learning methods such as random forest and extreme gradient boosting successfully predicted the chloride diffusion coefficient and artificial neural networks also provided accurate result.

A Comparative Study of Life Prediction using Accelerated Aging Tests and Machine Learning Techniques to Predict the Life of Composite Materials including CNT Materials (CNT소재를 포함하는 복합소재의 수명예측을 위해 가속열화 시험 및 머신러닝 기법을 이용한 수명예측 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Dong;Kim, Nam-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.456-458
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    • 2022
  • Due to the environmental regulations of the International Maritime Organization, shipyards are conducting various researches to improve the efficiency of ships, and efforts are being made to reduce the weight of ships. Recently, composite materials including CNT materials have the advantage of being able to reduce weight by 40% or more compared to general steel plate materials, and have the advantage of being able to be used as a substitute for ship clamps or door skins. Therefore, in this study, to predict the life of composite materials including CNT materials, the results were compared through the accelerated deterioration test method and the life prediction using machine learning techniques. The accelerated degradation test used the Arrhenius model equation, and the machine learning method predicted the life using a regression analysis algorithm.

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A Condition Rating Method of Bridges using an Artificial Neural Network Model (인공신경망모델을 이용한 교량의 상태평가)

  • Oh, Soon-Taek;Lee, Dong-Jun;Lee, Jae-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.71-77
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    • 2010
  • It is increasing annually that the cost for bridge Maintenance Repair & Rehabilitation (MR&R) in developed countries. Based on Intelligent Technology, Bridge Management System (BMS) is developed for optimization of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and reliability to predict long-term bridge deteriorations. However, such data are very limited amongst all the known bridge agencies, making it difficult to reliably predict future structural performances. To alleviate this problem, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based Backward Prediction Model (BPM) for generating missing historical condition ratings has been developed. Its reliability has been verified using existing condition ratings from the Maryland Department of Transportation, USA. The function of the BPM is to establish the correlations between the known condition ratings and such non-bridge factors as climate and traffic volumes, which can then be used to obtain the bridge condition ratings of the missing years. Since the non-bridge factors used in the BPM can influence the variation of the bridge condition ratings, well-selected non-bridge factors are critical for the BPM to function effectively based on the minimized discrepancy rate between the BPM prediction result and existing data (deck; 6.68%, superstructure; 6.61%, substructure; 7.52%). This research is on the generation of usable historical data using Artificial Intelligence techniques to reliably predict future bridge deterioration. The outcomes (Long-term Bridge deterioration Prediction) will help bridge authorities to effectively plan maintenance strategies for obtaining the maximum benefit with limited funds.

Development of Deep Learning Based Deterioration Prediction Model for the Maintenance Planning of Highway Pavement (도로포장의 유지관리 계획 수립을 위한 딥러닝 기반 열화 예측 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Yongjun;Sun, Jongwan;Lee, Minjae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.34-43
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    • 2019
  • The maintenance cost for road pavement is gradually increasing due to the continuous increase in road extension as well as increase in the number of old routes that have passed the public period. As a result, there is a need for a method of minimizing costs through preventative grievance preventive maintenance requires the establishment of a strategic plan through accurate prediction of road pavement. Hence, In this study, the deep neural network(DNN) and the recurrent neural network(RNN) were used in order to develop the expressway pavement damage prediction model. A superior model among these two network models was then suggested by comparing and analyzing their performance. In order to solve the RNN's vanishing gradient problem, the LSTM (Long short-term memory) circuits which are a more complicated form of the RNN structure were used. The learning result showed that the RMSE value of the RNN-LSTM model was 0.102 which was lower than the RMSE value of the DNN model, indicating that the performance of the RNN-LSTM model was superior. In addition, high accuracy of the RNN-LSTM model was verified through the comparison between the estimated average road pavement condition and the actually measured road pavement condition of the target section over time.

Field Research for the Durability Assessment Factor for deriving the Carbonation of Concrete Bridges in the Marine Environment (해양 환경하 콘크리트 교량의 탄산화 내구성능 평가 인자 도출을 위한 현장조사 연구)

  • Chai, Won-Kyu;Lee, Myeong-Gu;Son, Young-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.102-109
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    • 2015
  • In this study, on the basis of the results of the field survey and the theoretical consideration for Korean Standard Specification for concrete durability and maintenance, the following conclusions are derived. From the survey, the prediction equation of carbonation depth for the southwest region in Korea is experimentally proposed, $y_p=5.865{\sqrt{t}}$, which predicts about 60mm of the carbonation depth for the concrete structures of 100 years, a 1st class of target endurance period, under a combined deterioration environment like a marine environment. Considering that the marginal value for a carbonation depth limitation under very severely marine environment is 25mm, in accordance with the Specification, it is found that the predicting carbonation depth for the concrete cover depths, 100mm and 60mm are 63mm and 29.4mm, respectively. In conclusion, according to the equation and the Specification, it is strongly required that the reinforced concrete structures with the cover depth under 100mm have to make a protection from combined deterioration factors by any methods like a surface coating, an increment of cover depth or an application of a special concrete.