• 응용통계연구
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.703-720
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• 2019

최근 빈번하게 발생하는 이상기온과 기후변화로 인하여 전력수요의 변동성이 커지고 있으며 기온 영향의 증가와 함께 기온변화에 대한 전력수요의 반응은 비선형성과 비대칭성으로 나타나고 있다. 정부 에너지 정책의 변화와 4차 산업혁명의 전개에 따라 기온 효과를 보다 정확하게 추정하고 예측하는 것은 안정적 전력수급 관리를 위하여 중요한 과제이다. 본 연구는 기온변화에 대한 전력수요의 비선형적 반응에 대하여 부분선형모형을 이용하여 분석하고자 한다. 기온변화와 전력수요의 비선형·비대칭적 관계를 측정하기 위하여 Robinson의 double residual 준모수적 추정과 스플라인 추정을 적용하였다. 기상변수와 전력 소비에 대한 시간 단위 고주기 자료를 사용하여 부분선형모형으로 추정한 기온변화와 전력 소비의 관계는 기존 모수적 모형과는 다른 비선형성과 비대칭성을 갖고 있음을 확인하였다. 부분선형모형을 이용하여 얻은 전력수요에 대한 표본내·표본외 예측은 이차함수 모형과 냉난방도일 모형과 비교하여 우수한 예측력을 보였다. Diebold-Mariano 검정결과, 부분선형모형에서 얻은 예측력 향상은 통계적으로 유의하였다.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2000년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.310-312
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• 2000

This paper presents database for electricity demand-side management. Demand-Side Management(DSM) refers to programs that influence the usage of energy for improved economic efficiency and reduced environmental impact DSM can be looked upon as a tool for energy utilities to find resources on the demand side instead of on the supply side, or as a more general tool for society to better use and distribute scarce resources. In this paper, we construct the database for electricity demand-side management and apply it to residential and commercial sector.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.11-27
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• 2002

This paper is aimed at surveying the method that supports logical and theoretical back grounds of electricity service pricing, to investigate whether the ESPM can reflect comprehensively the various interests of parties and persons concerned with electricity supply and demand, and analyzing the practical applicability of the model in short-term perspectives. The major findings of this study can be summarized as fellows. First, the ESPM explains what process the equilibrium price is attained through, which is the essential concept and object in evaluating the value of public enterprises or utilities and the price of electricity Second, the ESPM provides the logics and methods that can objectify the discrete price by each electricity user. Third, the ESPM presents theoretical logics and practical methods that can calculate the basic price and the variable price per electricity unit which are key concepts in the two-part tariff. Fourth, the ESPM has powerful practical applicabilities in the reasonable electricity pricing and in the explanation for the balance between parties and persons interested with electricity supply and demand.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제57권7호
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• pp.1157-1166
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• 2008

This paper presents a new approach for the evaluation of location marginal prices (LMPs) considering demand-side bidding (DSB) in a competitive electricity market. The stabilization of the electric power supply and demand balance is one of the major important activities in electric power industry. In this paper, we present an analytical method for calculation of LMPs considering DSB, which has opportunity to compete with generating units, as England & Wales Pool's DSB scheme[1]. Also, we propose a new approach that LMP considering DSB is divided into three components. The proposed approach can be used for the evaluation of demand-side bidding into the electricity market and the assessment of the influence of DSB on total production costs and LMPs as well as three components.

• 한국주거학회논문집
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.31-38
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• 2012

In this paper, we draws tendency of the electricity consumption in residential buildings according to inhabitants Composition types and the level of incomes. it is necessary to reduce energy cost and keep energy security through the electricity demand forecasting and management technology. Progressive social change such as increases of single household, the aging of society, increases in the income level will replace the existing residential electricity demand pattern. However, Only with conventional methods that using only the energy consumption per-unit area are based on Energy final consumption data can not respond to those social and environmental change. To develop electricity demand estimation model that can cope flexibly to changes in the social and environmental, In this paper researches propensity of electricity consumption according to the type of residents configuration, the level of income. First, we typed form of inhabitants in residential that existed in Korea. after that we calculated hourly electricity consumption for each type through National Time-Use Survey performed at the National Statistical Office with considering overlapping behavior. Household appliances and retention standards according to income level is also considered.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제58권3호
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• pp.455-461
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• 2009

This paper proposes Direct Load Control(DLC) operation scheme using a bidding system and the methodology to value proper quantity decided by the DLC program, which is a kind of resources for stabilization of electricity market price during peak times by managing consumer electricity demand. Since DLC program in Korea is based on the contract with the customers participating in this program, it is difficult to anticipate voluntary participation. That is, incentive for participants in DLC program is insufficient. To cope with this point, it is necessary to develop a new market mechanism and market compatible operation scheme for DLC programs. DLC market mechanism is deemed to be equipped with iterative bidding system, independent operation from energy market, and interactive with bidding information on energy market. With this market mechanism, it is important to find the optimal operation point of DLC allowing for the factors of stabilizing the electricity market price and compensating DLC implementation. This paper focuses on the mathematical approaches for the bid-based DLC operation scheme and examines several scenarios for the following technical justifications: 1) stabilization of electricity market price during peak times, 2) elasticity of demand.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.43-58
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• 2019

Since 2009, electricity consumption has developed a unique seasonal pattern in South Korea. Winter loads have sharply increased, and they eventually exceeded summer peaks. This trend reversal distinguishes these load patterns from those in the USA and the EU, where annual peaks are observed during the summer months. Using Levene's test, we show statistical evidence of a rise in temperature but a decrease in variance over time regardless of the season. Despite the overall increase in the temperature, regardless of the season there should be another cause of the increased demand for electricity in winter. With the present study using data from 1991 to 2012, we provide empirical evidence that relatively low electricity prices regulated by the government have contributed significantly to the rapid upward change in electricity consumption, specifically during the winter months in the commercial sector in Korea.

• 국토계획
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• 제53권7호
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• pp.67-86
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• 2018

This paper attempted to analyze impacts of transition in electricity generation system on a national economy and environmental level in Korea using a recursive computable general equilibrium(CGE) model. In particular, the paper presented a hybrid model combining the top-down CGE model with the bottom-up model which describes the structure of electricity production in detail. The impacts were analyzed by two policy scenarios base on the basic plan for electricity supply and demand proposed by the Korean government. As a result, the paper specifically showed that there exists a trade-off relationship in the policy-making between economic efficiency and environmental level. The paper also suggested that the transition in electricity generation system should be done more gradually and carefully.

• 산업공학
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.351-361
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• 2011

Forecasting of electricity demand have difficulty in adapting to abrupt weather changes along with a radical shift in major regional and global climates. This has lead to increasing attention to research on the immediate and accurate forecasting model. Technically, this implies that a model requires only a few input variables all of which are easily obtainable, and its predictive performance is comparable with other competing models. To meet the ends, this paper presents an energy demand forecasting model that uses the variable selection or extraction methods of data mining to select only relevant input variables, and employs support vector regression method for accurate prediction. Also, it proposes a novel performance measure for time-series prediction, shift index, followed by description on preprocessing procedure. A comparative evaluation of the proposed method with other representative data mining models such as an auto-regression model, an artificial neural network model, an ordinary support vector regression model was carried out for obtaining the forecast of monthly electricity demand from 2000 to 2008 based on data provided by Korea Energy Economics Institute. Among the models tested, the proposed method was shown promising results than others.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제62권1호
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• pp.21-28
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• 2013

The paper proposes an optimal sizing method of a customer's battery energy storage system (BESS) which aims at managing the electricity demand of the customer to minimize electricity cost under the time of use(TOU) pricing. Peak load limit of the customer and charging and discharging schedules of the BESS are optimized on annual basis to minimize annual electricity cost, which consists of peak load related basic cost and actual usage cost. The optimal scheduling is used to assess the maximum cost savings for all sets of candidate capacities of BESS. An optimal size of BESS is determined from the cost saving curves via capacity of BESS. Case study uses real data from an apartment-type factory customer and shows how the proposed method can be employed to optimally design the size of BESS for customer demand management.