• Title/Summary/Keyword: demand estimation

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Estimation and Application of the Value of Travel Time by Time Period: A Case Study of Downtown Highway Expansion Project (시간대별 통행시간가치 추정 및 적용: 도심부 도로 확장 사업 사례연구를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jae-Young;Choi, Keechoo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.1D
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2011
  • The travel time value is important factor for the evaluation of feasibility the transportation facility investment. The existing method for calculation of the travel time for each mode uses daily average trip purpose. So the value of travel time is constant because it is estimated with only daily average proportion. This daily constant time value can distort the results of future demands of toll roads or economic appraisals for the projects. The proportion of the trip purpose varies by time periods. Accordingly the value of travel time also varies by time periods. In this study, times periods are classified as morning peak, evening peak, business time off-peak, and non-business time off-peak. And trip purpose proportions are sorted by each time period from raw data of Seoul household trip study, then the value of travel time for each time period is estimated with these sorted purpose proportions. A case study of Seoul Jung-gu and Yongsan-gu performed with newly estimated time value by time periods. The result of benefit calculation with the daily constant time value is overestimated approximately annual 2.5 billion Won compared by time values by time periods. The demands of toll roads are also overestimated with the existing daily constant time value by daily 3,500 vehicles and total revenue of toll roads are overestimated by annually 1 billion Won. In conclusion, the value of travel time by each time period enables the more precise economic evaluation of the transportation facility investment projects, mode choice behavior, and route choice behavior especially for toll roads.

Estimation and Investigation of the Pollutant Delivery Rate of Sapkyo Reservoir (삽교호의 오염물질 유달률 산정 조사 및 평가연구)

  • Lee, Youngshin;Shin, Sanghee;Lee, Taeho
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study investigates the delivery characteristics according to the load of pollutants by calculating the delivery rate of targeted areas on pollutants in Sapkyo reservoir. The main rivers of Sapkyo reservoir are Namwoncheon, Dogocheon, Sapkyocheon, Muhancheon and Gokgyocheon. The delivery rate and their characteristics of five major rivers during rainfall season are investigated. As th result, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorous (T-P) of total delivery rate are calculated by 0.40, 0.34 and 0.08, respectively. The delivery rate of T-P compares to other water quality is investigated relatively low. Looked at the overall characteristics of the watershed, the delivery rate of T-N and T-P is little change in the rate of the year, too. The delivery rate of T-N is calculated from 0.2 to 0.3 in the dry season, and from 0.31 to 0.39 in a flood, respectively. The delivery rate of T-P is calculated to more than 0.3 in the dry season, and 0.11 in a flood. It is similar values which the average annual delivery rate of T-P is 0.08. Therefore, the measured delivery rate of Sapkyo reservoir can be applicable such as a delivery rate of similar features of the terrain and land use.

An Estimation and Decomposition of CO2 Emissions Change in Korea Industry, 1990~2000 Using a Hybrid Input-Output Model and Structural Decomposition Analysis (환경 혼합 산업연관모형을 이용한 산업별 이산화탄소 배출량 추정과 변화 요인 분석)

  • Choi, Han Joo;Lee, Kihoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.27-50
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    • 2006
  • We estimate $CO_2$ emissions in Korea industry, 1990 and 2000 using a commodity- by-industry IO model ($CO_2$ hybrid IO mode]). Estimated $CO_2$ emissions in industries include both $CO_2$ emissions from direct and indirect consumption. The results show that total $CO_2$ emissions has increased by 51.6 million TC (Tonne of Carbon) from 64.4 million TC in 1990 to 115.5 million TC in 2000. By applying the structural decomposition analysis technique, we decompose change of $CO_2$ emissions in Korea industry between the period 1990~2000. In the decomposition, we figure out two contributing factors, changes in $CO_2$ coefficient and changes in final demand. The latter is further decomposed as growth effects and structural effects. We also estimated each factor's contribution to the changes in $CO_2$ emissions in industries between 1990~2000. The analysis can be used as a useful resource for policy makers in improving the effectiveness of $CO_2$ emissions mitigation policy.

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Modified Approaches to Delay Estimation for the Work Zones in the Proximity of the Signalized Intersections (공사구간이 있는 신호교차로의 지체산정을 위한 새로운 접근)

  • Shin, Chi-Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.269-281
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    • 2018
  • Unlike its archetype predecessor such as the Highway Capacity Manual of the United States, the Korean Highway Capacity Manual of 2013 provides the analytical models for estimating the saturation flow rates for the lane-occupying work-zones in the proximity of the signalized intersections. Direct application of the revised saturation flow rates into the classic control delay models, however, appears to produce unreasonable delay amount as traffic demand approaches lane-group capacities and surpasses them, which is common phenomena in the work-zones. Complex interaction among vehicles, lane-dropping work-zone geometry and signal operations were never accounted in the traditional control delay models, and considerable differences between the delay model outcomes and field observations are repeatedly experienced. This paper proposes the modified approaches to the delay models in the manual, exerted on all three elements of control delay, and particularly focuses on the temporal and spatial boundary expansion in comparing the simulated results to the estimated ones. Extensive microscopic simulation work and calibration effort supports the modified approaches well enough to use them in the work-zone planning and evaluation.

Development and Implementation of a 2-Phase Calibration Method for Gravity Model Considering Accessibility (접근성 지표를 도입한 중력모형의 2단계 정산기법 개발 및 적용)

  • CHOI, Sung Taek;RHO, Jeong Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.393-404
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    • 2015
  • Gravity model has had the major problem that the model explains the characteristics of travel behavior with only deterrence factors such as travel time or cost. In modern society, travel behavior can be affected not only deterrence factors but also zonal characteristics or transportation service. Therefore, those features have to be considered to estimate the future travel demand accurately. In this regard, there are two primary aims of this study: 1. to identify the characteristics of inter-zonal travel, 2. to develop the new type of calibration method. By employing accessibility variable which can explain the manifold pattern of trip, we define the zonal travel behavior newly. Furthermore, we suggest 2-phase calibration method, since existing calibration method cannot find the optimum solution when organizing the deterrence function with the new variables. The new method proceeds with 2 steps; step 1.estimating deterrence parameter, step 2. finding balancing factors. The validation results with RMSE, E-norm, C.R show that this study model explains the inter-zonal travel pattern adequately and estimate the O/D pairs precisely than existing gravity model. Especially, the problem with estimation of short distance trip is overcomed. In conclusion, it is possible to draw the conclusion that this study suggests the possibility of improvement for trip distribution model.

Factor Analysis and LISREL Model Development for Landscape Estimation on The Road Cutting Slope Area (도로절토사면(절개면)의 경관평가를 위한 요인분석 및 LISREL 모형구축)

  • 지길용;박일동;임성빈;금기정
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2003
  • In South Korea, about 74% of total area is mountainous terrain It is therefore inevitable to make tunnel or cutting slope for road construction. According to a related survey, approximately 2,400 sites of cutting slopes were found from 24 different routes of roadway which is overall 900 km long, implying 2.7 slopes per 1km of roadway on average. Even though safety matter such as the slope failure prevention would be the most important consideration for the construction of cutting slopeslandscape of sloped face is nowadays becoming another important factor due to the growing demand for the driver-friendly road environment Various construction methods which attain this goal should therefore be considered in the design stage of the roadway. The objective of this study is to identify important factors in landscape of sloped-cut roadway using factor analysis. For this, 10 main treatment methods of sloped-cut fact were analyzed. This study employed the LISREL(structural analysis of common variance) model in order to capture the qualitative characteristics of the slope-cut road and examine the relationship between the suey error and the variable(s). As a result, more reasonable landscape evaluation model for the road design and construction was proposed.

Diversion Rate Estimation Model for Unexperienced Transportation Mode by Considering Maximum Willingness-to-pay: A Case Study of Personal Rapid Transit (최대 지불의사액을 고려한 미경험 교통수단의 전환율 추정모형: Personal Rapid Transit 사례를 중심으로)

  • Yu, Jeong Whon;Choi, Jung Yoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2013
  • Personal Rapid Transit(PRT) has emerged as a promising transportation mode for transit-oriented sustainable communities. In this study, an alternative design of questionnaire survey is proposed in order to capture traveler's perception of an unexperienced transportation mode. This study aims at predicting the mode choice diversion behavior of potential PRT users who do not have experience of using it previously, considering their willingness-to-pay. The proposed model was applied to predict an aggregate forecast of PRT patronage for the city of Songdo where PRT is considered to be constructed. For validation of the proposed model, the price elasticity of PRT demand was analyzed, compared with existing models. The analysis results suggest that the proposed design of questionnaire survey is able to capture respondents' attitude and perception to unexperienced transportation mode in an effective manner. Also, they show that the proposed diversion rate model is more realistic than existing models in explaining the effects of users' willingness-to-pay for predicting PRT patronage.

A Basic Study for Wind Energy of Building Cladding using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD를 이용하여 건물 외피의 바람에너지에 관한 적용연구)

  • Chung, Yung-Bea
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.39.2-39.2
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    • 2011
  • The new and renewable energy today has a great interest in all countries around the world. In special it has need more limit of the fossil fuel that needs of low carbon emission among the social necessary conditions. Recently, the high-rise building demand the structural safety, the economic feasibility and the functional design. The high-rise building spends enormous energy and it satisfied the design in solving energy requirements. The requirements of energy for the building depends on the partly form wind energy due to the cladding of the building that came from the surroundings of the high-rise building. In this study of the wind energy, the cladding of the building was assessed a tentative study. The wind energy obtains from several small wind powers that came from the building or the surrounding of the building. In making a cladding the wind energy forms with wind pressure by means of energy transformation methods. The assessment for the building cladding was surrounded of wind speed and wind pressure that was carried out as a result of numerical simulation of wind environment and wind pressure which is coefficient around the high-rise building with the computational fluid dynamics. In case of the obtained wind energy from the pressure of the building cladding was estimated by the simulation of CFD of the building. The wind energy at this case was calculated by energy transform methods: the wind pressure coefficients were obtained from the simulated model for wind environment using CFD as follow. The concept for the factor of $E_f$ was suggested in this study. $$C_p=\frac{P_{surface}}{0.5{\rho}V^{2ref}}$$ $$E_c=C_p{\cdot}E_f$$ Where $C_p$ is wind pressure coefficient from CFD, $E_f$ means energy transformation parameter from the principle of the conservation of energy and $E_c$ means energy from the building cladding. The other wind energy that is $E_p$ was assessed by wind power on the building or building surroundings. In this case the small wind power system was carried out for wind energy on the place with the building and it was simulated by computational fluid dynamics. Therefore the total wind energy in the building was calculated as the follows. $$E=E_c+E_p$$ The energy transformation, which is $E_f$ will need more research and estimation for various wind situation of the building. It is necessary for the assessment to make a comparative study about the wind tunnel test or full scale test.

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Optimization Technique for Estimation of Potential Hydroelectric Energy at Existion Ahricultural Reservoir (최적화기법을 이용한 기존 농업용 저수지에서의 부존 수력발전량 추정)

  • An, Tae-Jin;Ryu, Hui-Jeong;Park, Jeong-Eung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.281-289
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    • 1999
  • Small-scale hydropower projects at existing agricultural reservoirs can contribute to produce electric energy by maximizing the use of releases from the reservoirs. The irrigation water duration, the reservoir hydropower simulation, and the nonlinear programming model are employed to estimate potential hydroelectric energy at an existing reservoir. The nonlinear programming model consists of finding a maximum hydroelectric energy subject to irrigation water demand constraints. The sample reservoir given a set of inflow and irrigation water is considered. The optimal solutions by the optimization model yield the most hydroelectric energy for the analysis period in the three methods. Consequently, the nonlinear programming model uses the most water for hydropower generation with respect to the total inflow of the sample reservoir. It is also found that additional storage by increasing the normal water level of the sample reservoir does not significantly increase the annual hydroelectric energy for the given reservoir. It is expected that the optimization model and the proposed procedure for estimating potential hydroelectric energy can be applied to evaluate feasibility analysis for small scale hydropower additions at existing agricultural dams.

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3D Modeling Approaches in Estimation of Resource and Production of Musan Iron Mine, North Korea (3차원 모델링을 활용한 북한 무산광산일대의 자원량 및 생산량 추정)

  • Bae, Sungji;Yu, Jaehyung;Koh, Sang-Mo;Heo, Chul-Ho
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.391-400
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    • 2015
  • Korea is a global steel producer and a major consumer while iron ore producing is very low compared to the demand. On the other hand, North Korea holds tremendous amount of iron reserves and, however, its producing rate is limited. Moreover, the data regarding mineral resources of North Korea is very limited and uncertain because of political isolation. This study estimated the amount of iron ore resource and production amount for the Musan Iron mine, the world-known open-pit mine of North Korea, using satellite imagery(Landsat MSS, ASTER) and digital maps between 1976 to 2007. As a result, the mining area of Musan mine was increased by $6.1km^2$ during the 30 years and the mining sector was estimated as $4.9km^2$. We estimated the iron resources and production amount of 0.7 and 0.2 billion metric tons, respectively based on 3D modeling and average iron ore density of Anshan formation in China. This amount indicates 8.1 million tons of annual average production and it coincides well with previous reports. We expect this study would be utilized significantly on inter-Korean exchange programs by providing trustable preliminary data.