• Title/Summary/Keyword: demand curve

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Development of a Numerical Analysis Method for the Outage Cost Assessment at Load Points (부하지점별 공급지장비추정을 위한 수치해석적 방법의 개발)

  • Choi, Jae-Seok;Kim, Hong-Sik;Moon, Seung-Pil;Kang, Jin-Jong;Kim, Ho-Yong;Park, Dong-Wook
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.49 no.11
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    • pp.549-557
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    • 2000
  • This study proposes a new numerical analysis method for assessing the outage cost of the composite power system with considering transmission system at load points. The proposed method comes from combination of the expected energy not served curve(EENSC) with the marginal outage cost function obtained at load points. Uncertainty of the outages of the generation and transmission systems was also included in this study. This study can be categorized into three processing parts as like as follows. Firstly, EENSC at load points was developed newly from the composite power system effective load duration curve which has been proposed by the authors. Secondly, this study proposes a new technical method for determining the coefficients of the marginal outage cost functions at load points in the composite power system(Generation and Transmission systems). It is a main key point that the mathematical expression for the marginal outage cost function at a load point is formulated and evaluated using relations between the GNP (or GDP) and the electrical energy demand at the load pint. Finally, the outage cost was calculated in this paper by combining the proposed EENSC with the marginal outage cost function evaluated at each load point. It is another important feature that the average costs for future at load points can be forescasted using the proposed approach. The effectiveness of the proposed new approach is demonstrated by the case studies with the IEEE-RTS.

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A Study on the Estimation Method of Daily Load Curve for the Optimization Design and Economic Evaluation of Stand-alone Microgrids Based on HOMER Simulation in Off-Grid Limiting the Supply of Electricity (제한급전하는 오프그리드의 독립형 마이크로그리드 최적 설계 및 경제성 평가를 위한 일부하곡선 추정 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Yong-Hyun;Youn, Seok-Min;Kim, Jung-Hoon;Hwang, Sung-Wook
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.68 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2019
  • There is a growing interest in various microgrid solutions that supply electricity 24 hours a day to off-grid areas where are not connected with the main grid, and Korea has many positive effects by constructing overseas microgrids as a country operating the emission trading scheme. Since it is not clear how to obtain load curves that is one of the inputs of the HOMER used to design a microgrid optimization plan, or it is necessary to examine whether electricity is supplied to the peak load level of the areas where have not received the electricity benefits from the viewpoint of the demand management, a methodology should be developed to know the load composition ratio and the shape of the daily load curve. In this paper, the relative coefficient and average load information for each load group obtained from the survey are used besides peak load and total average load. A mathematical model is proposed to derive the load composition ratio in the form of a Quadratic Programming and the load forecasting is performed using simple linear regression with future indicators. The effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed for the Philippine island region supported by Korea Energy Agency and the Asian Development Bank.

Effectiveness of the Sensor using Lead Dioxide Electrodes for the Electrochemical Oxygen Demand (전기화학적 산소요구량 측정용 이산화납 전극 센서의 유효성)

  • Kim, Hong-Won;Chung, Nam-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.575-581
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    • 2012
  • The electrochemical oxygen demand (ECOD) is an additional sum parameter, which has not yet found the attention it deserves. It is defined as the oxygen equivalent of the charge consumed during an electrochemical oxidation of the solution. Only one company has yet developed an instrument to determine the ECOD. This instrument uses $PbO_2$-electrodes for the oxidation and has been successfully implemented in an automatic on-line monitor. A general problem of the ECOD determination is the high overpotential of electrochemical oxidations of most organic compounds at conventional electrodes. Here we present a new approach for the ECOD determination, which is based on the use of a solid composite electrodes with highly efficient electro-catalysts for the oxidation of a broad spectrum of different organic compounds. Lead dioxide as an anode material has found commercial application in processes such as the manufacture of sodium per chlorate and chromium regeneration where adsorbed hydroxyl radicals from the electro-oxidation of water are believed to serve as the oxidizing agent. The ECOD sensors based on the Au/$PbO_2$ electrode were operated at an optimized applied potential, +1.6 V vs. Ag/AgCl/sat. KCl, in 0.01 M $Na_2SO_4$ solution, and reduced the effect of interference ($Cl^-$ and $Fe^{2-}$) and an expended lifetime (more than 6 months). The ECOD sensors were installed in on-line auto-analyzers, and used to analyze real samples.

A Study on a Long-term Demand Forecasting and Characterization of Diffusion Process for Medical Equipments based on Diffusion Model (확산 모형에 의한 고가 의료기기의 수요 확산의 특성분석 및 중장기 수요예측에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Jung-Sik;Kim, Tae-Gu;Lim, Dar-Oh
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.85-110
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    • 2008
  • In this study, we explore the long-term demand forecasting of high-price medical equipments based on logistic and Bass diffusion model. We analyze the specific pattern of each equipment's diffusion curve by interpreting the parameter estimates of Bass diffusion model. Our findings are as follows. First, ultrasonic imaging system, CT are in the stage of maturity and so, the future demands of them are not too large. Second, medical image processing unit is between growth stage and maturity stage and so, the demand is expected to increase considerably for two or three years. Third, MRI is in the stage of take-off and Mammmography X-ray system is in the stage of maturity but, estimates of the potential number of adopters based on logistic model is considerably different to that based on Bass diffusion model. It means that additional data for these two equipments should be collected and analyzed to obtain the reliable estimates of their demands. Fourth, medical image processing unit have the largest q value. It means that the word-of-mouth effect is important in the diffusion of this equipment. Fifth, for MRI and Ultrasonic system, q/p values have the relatively large value. It means that collective power has an important role in adopting these two equipments.

An Study of Demand Forecasting Methodology Based on Hype Cycle: The Case Study on Hybrid Cars (기대주기 분석을 활용한 수요예측 연구: 하이브리드 자동차의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.14 no.spc
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    • pp.1232-1255
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    • 2011
  • This paper proposes a model for demand forecasting that will require less effort in the process of utilizing the new product diffusion model while also allowing for more objective and timely application. Drawing upon the theoretical foundation provided by the hype cycle model and the consumer adoption model, this proposed model makes it possible to estimate the maximum market potential based solely on bibliometrics and the scale of the early market, thereby presenting a method for supplying the major parameters required for the Bass model. Upon analyzing the forecasting ability of this model by applying it to the case of the hybrid car market, the model was confirmed to be capable of successfully forecasting results similar in scale to the market potential deduced through various other objective sources of information, thus underscoring the potentials of utilizing this model. Moreover, even the hype cycle or the life cycle can be estimated through direct linkage with bibliometrics and the Bass model. In cases where the hype cycles of other models have been observed, the forecasting ability of this model was demonstrated through simple case studies. Since this proposed model yields a maximum market potential that can also be applied directly to other growth curve models, the model presented in the following paper provides new directions in the endeavor to forecast technology diffusion and identify promising technologies through bibliometrics.

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Spatial Demand Estimation for the Knowledge-Based Industries in the Capital Region of Korea (지식기반산업의 입지수요추정)

  • Kab Sung Kim;Sung Jae Choo;Kee Bom Nahm
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.363-374
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    • 2003
  • There is very high preference for the firms to locate in the Capital region, the City of Seoul and its surrounding areas, which inevitably meets diverse types of regulations to prevent over-concentration in Korea. In order to suggest an urgent need to reform these regulations, the demand for knowledge-based industries is estimated. A legit model is employed to estimate the demand of relocation of the current firms based on a survey conducted in 2001. A logistic curve is used to forecast the demand of new start-ups in Korea. The lands for industrial use only are estimated as many as 2.1 million~3.9 million pyung(1 pyung=3.3$m^2$) in nation-wide. Considering affiliate facilities and infrastructures, 3.1 million~5.9 million of industrial area should be developed in Korea for next five years. Since the rents are very high and the available land is short in the southern parts of Seoul, where most knowledge-based firms locate right now. Many firms have considered relocating on any other places where there exist a plenty of lands available and cheaper rents and cheaper wage rates, but still not far away from Seoul so that they could obtain new advanced information, skilled labors, venture capitals, and high quality of producer services. The Capital region, especially Gyeonggi and Incheon, is the only place to meet those conditions in Korea.

Simultaneous 3D Machining with Real-Time NURBS Interpolation

  • Hong, Won-Pyo;Lee, Seok-Woo;Park, Hon-Zong;Yang, Min-Yang
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.336-342
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    • 2003
  • Increasing demand on precision machining using computerized numerical control (CNC) machines have necessitated that the tool move not only with the smallest possible position error but also with smoothly varying feedrates in 3-dimensional (3D) space. This paper presents the simultaneous 3D machining process investigated using a retrofitted PC-NC milling machine. To achieve the simultaneous 3-axis motions, a new precision interpolation algorithm for 3D Non Uniform Rational B-Spline (NURBS) curve is proposed. With this accurate and efficient algorithm for the generation of complex 3D shapes, a real-time NURBS interpolator was developed using a PC and the simultaneous 3D machining was accomplished satisfactorily.

The Response Characteristics of Approximate Nonlinear Methods with RC Dual System (이중골조에 대한 비선형 약산법들의 응답특성)

  • Nam Young-Woo;Kang Pyeong-Doo;Jun Dae-Han;Kim Jae-Ung
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2005.04a
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2005
  • In performance-based design methods, it is clear that the evaluation of the nonlinear response is required. The methods available to the design engineer today are nonlinear tim history analyses, or monotonic static nonlinear analyses, or equivalent static analyses with simulated inelastic influences. The nonlinear time analysis is the most accurate method in computing the nonlinear response of structures, but it is time-consuming and necessitate more efforts. Some codes proposed the capacity spectrum method based on the nonlinear static analysis to determine earthquake-induced demand given the structure pushover curve. This procedure is conceptually simple but iterative and time consuming with some errors. The nonlinear direct spectrum method is proposed and studied to evaluate nonlinear response of structures, without iterative computations, given by the structural linear vibration period and yield strength from the pushover analysis. The purpose of this paper is to compare the accuracy and the reliability of approximate nonlinear methods with respect to RC dual system and various earthquakes.

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A Study on Acoustic Radiation Optimization of Vibrating Panel Using Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 판넬구조물의 구조음향 최적화에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Jin-Young
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2009
  • Globally, customer appreciation and demand for quieter products has driven noise control engineers to develop efficient and quieter products in a relatively short time. In the vehicles and ship industry, noise has become an important attribute because of the competitive market and increasing customer awareness. Noise reduction is often achieved through structural modifications by typical approaches. In the present paper, author describes a fundamental study on optimum design of curvature. Bezier curve. and rib attachment to reduce noise from simple panel using a genetic algorithm(GA). The acoustic optimization procedure employed p-FEM for structural analysis, the Rayleigh integral method for acoustic analysis and the GA for searching optimum design. In the optimization procedure. the objective function to be minimized is the average sound power radiated from an objective structure over a given frequency range $0{\sim}300$ Hz.

A Study on the Relationship between Traffic Accident Rates and Geometric Characteristics of the Expressway in Korea (우리나라 고속도로의 기하특성과 교통사고발생률과의 상호관계에 관한 연구)

  • 임강원;강정규
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.3-21
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    • 1985
  • Since the expressway was first opened in 1968 there has been continued demand for constructing new lines of expressway, and thus it amounts to 1,420.5km in total length as of 1984. As the expressway becomes to take up more important role in our country facing motorization traffic accidents have become more of social issues, although its accident rates are relatively low compared to those on general highways in Korea, which is among the highest in the world. The purpose of the study is to investigate the correlation between the traffic accident rates on the expressway and their geometric characteristics based upon 1982 data. In order to extract the correlationship among them on as much disaggregate basis, the study has carried out the analysis on the primary data aggregated on the 100 meter intervals. One of the important findings was, among others, the design criteria of the expressway should be reconsidered with respect to the radius of the curve, superelevation, climbing lane, composed gradients, interchange facilities, tunnels and so on.

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