Health Policy and Management (보건행정학회지)

Korean Academy of Health Policy and Management (한국보건행정학회)
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A Study on a Long-term Demand Forecasting and Characterization of Diffusion Process for Medical Equipments based on Diffusion Model

확산 모형에 의한 고가 의료기기의 수요 확산의 특성분석 및 중장기 수요예측에 관한 연구

  • Hong, Jung-Sik (Department of Industrial & Information Systems Engineering, Seoul National University of Technology) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Gu (Department of Industrial Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lim, Dar-Oh (Korea Health Industry Development Institute)
  • 홍정식 (서울산업대학교 산업정보시스템공학과) ;
  • 김태구 (서울대학교 산업공학과) ;
  • 임달오 (한국보건산업진흥원)
  • Published : 2008.12.30
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Abstract

In this study, we explore the long-term demand forecasting of high-price medical equipments based on logistic and Bass diffusion model. We analyze the specific pattern of each equipment's diffusion curve by interpreting the parameter estimates of Bass diffusion model. Our findings are as follows. First, ultrasonic imaging system, CT are in the stage of maturity and so, the future demands of them are not too large. Second, medical image processing unit is between growth stage and maturity stage and so, the demand is expected to increase considerably for two or three years. Third, MRI is in the stage of take-off and Mammmography X-ray system is in the stage of maturity but, estimates of the potential number of adopters based on logistic model is considerably different to that based on Bass diffusion model. It means that additional data for these two equipments should be collected and analyzed to obtain the reliable estimates of their demands. Fourth, medical image processing unit have the largest q value. It means that the word-of-mouth effect is important in the diffusion of this equipment. Fifth, for MRI and Ultrasonic system, q/p values have the relatively large value. It means that collective power has an important role in adopting these two equipments.

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References

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