• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.51-69
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• 2023

Korea's population is aging at a faster pace than any other major country, and the adverse impact of this trend on the economy is predicted to be significant. This paper focuses on the macroeconomic effects of population aging with particular attention paid to the pace of aging in Korea. According to our analysis, it is difficult to offset the decline in the labor supply driven by rapid population aging, even if the labor force participation rate of the working-age population rises to a significantly high level. We suggest a re-orientation of policy directions to correspond to the behavioral changes of economic agents. Policies must focus on promoting labor force participation among the elderly while pushing towards human capital advancement and higher productivity.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.1-27
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• 2011

This paper analyzes the demand and supply structure of the market for college professors, and then characterizes the changes in the economic status of them for the last three decades. On the supply side, the number of Korean recipients of doctorate degrees from the U.S. institutions, relative to the number of newly hired professors, has declined dramatically since early 1990s. The relative remuneration of professors, which is found to be closely related to the 'number of students per professor', has also declined steadily. These suggest that the decline in the relative wage of professors has been a driving force for the decline in the relative size of new PhD's in the U.S.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.41-53
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• 1986

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run produc- tion function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated. In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population. Some major findings arc summarized as follows. (1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 2O~24 groups and females aged 14∼19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups. (2) Except for females aged 20∼24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups. (3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations (4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (6O and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes. (5)The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absord labor force has been declining;that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreasre over time. In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime- age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20∼24 and 25∼34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25∼34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20∼24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifi- cally, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995). In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.1-29
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• 2019

This study estimates how changes in the female (aged 25 to 54) labor force participation rate (LFPR) following the historical experiences of the US and Japan would alter the future trend of the female economically active population by 2065, compared to the case in which the LFPR as of 2018 will remain unchanged. According to the results, the female labor force aged 25 to 54 will increase by 14% (about 797,000) and 15% (about 831,000), respectively, by 2042 if the female LFPR should change following the past trends of the US and Japan. In particular, the increase in the labor force is expected to be pronounced among females aged 30 to 44 who currently suffer high rates of job severance. The results of this study strengthen the prediction that the on-going population changes will not reduce much the overall economically active population in the near future. The result of a simulation based on the historical experiences of Japan suggests that, as least in the near future, policy efforts to encourage female labor supply will be more effective in alleviating the potential labor-market impacts of population changes, compared to policies aiming at increasing old-age employment.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.59-83
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to understand why female labor force participation rates decline in early times after their marriage. Data were derived from the 4th(2001) to 9th(2006) Korea Labor & Income Panel Study. 194 Korean married women in twenties and thirties who had a job before marriage were analyzed. Survival analysis was used to explore the first labor force exit of married women longitudinally. The major findings are as follows. First, nearly half of them went away from labor market in the first 3 years after marriage. Second, child birth was the most significant factor in predicting women's labor force exit. Married women's employment discontinuity tend to be lowered after child birth, with working hour decreasing, and with the number of available family-friendly policies increasing. Married women's income encouraged them to hold on their career, though husband's income and household income were not significant. Third, married women tended to leave their job before giving birth. Women who remained in the labor market at child birth or until a year after birth were inclined to continue their job thereafter. Fourth, maternity leave and childcare leave diminished the probability of employment discontinuity. Many working wives could not use a maternity leave or childcare leave. This study shows married women usually underwent labor market exit in their newly married time. They cannot help facing conflict between the role of mother's and a worker's. Family-friendly policies could encourage working wives to rear child and continue work at the same time. The findings of this study could serve as fundamental material for further studies and would be a key to find effective solution for problematic issues on reconciling work and family.

• Journal of Arbitration Studies
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.93-120
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• 2010

In 1978, Chinese reform and opening caused a big changes in Chinese labor relationship. Through reforming and opening, China gave up part of state ownership system and group ownership system, permitted private ownership system, and also opened the way for capitalists to ride again. Since China was established, the labor relationship ceased for 30 years has been appeared. However because the top priority aim of China's reform was economic growth, the protection of the rights and interests of labor was pushed back on the policy priority list. China takes foreign capitals based on cheap labor force quickly and China come up the worldwide plants. Since reformed, China keeps an economic growth rate of 9.7% annually for 30years. This economic growth is based on labor's sacrifice. However, Chinese fast economic growth causes side effects such as increasement of the gap between the wealthy and the poor, increasement of unbalanced development between regions, and the increasement of conflict between labor and management. Especially, according to changes in labors' level of consciousness, the labors recognized that their rights and interests are exploited by employers. Therefore, the labor dispute is continuously increasing. Chinese government changes their policy from the policy focusing on enterprise development to the policy protecting labor's rights and interests. In order to protect labor's rights and interests, China conducts labor contract law and labor dispute conciliation arbitration law in 2008. This kind of changes in Chinese labor environment affect a lot to Korean companies which already entered into China or are willing to enter. According to studying on present situation and resolution system in Chinese labor dispute, this paper suggests the proper countermeasure related to labor dispute of Korean companies which entered in China. First, the success rate of labor dispute conciliation by enterprise labor dispute conciliation committee is around 20% during recent several years and the success rate by year is in decline. Therefore, when labor dispute is occurred, our companies which entered into China better use other labor dispute methods such as negotiation and arbitration than conciliation in order to settle a conflict. Second, from the Korean enterprises entered in China point of view, there exists a problem not to sue except special cases which provided in the law even though they are dissatisfied with arbitrate judgment. Thus, when labor dispute occurred, Korean enterprises try to do best to settle the dispute through negotiation. However, in case of that the dispute cannot be settled by negotiation, they have to attend in the arbitration as if it is a last chance. Third, Korean enterprises keep in mind that dispute handling procedures between labor union and users or between labor group and users are different, and then deal with separately. Thus, dispute between labor and users have to follow arbitrate procedures as a necessary procedure, but in case of dispute related to group contract, namely dispute against labor union, labor dispute can be settled by arbitrate or suit, so after figuring out the situation exactly, it is necessary to select more advantageous way in order to settle the dispute. Moreover, in case of the dispute between labor union, they have to keep in mind that conciliation procedures cannot be used.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.1-18
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• 1990

This is a study which attempt to analyze changing patierns of economic active popu-lation, t o estimato- future patterns, and exa- mine vartons problems arises by changing c ire u mst ances of t he labor force market in- clunging soici al, economic ic, heathl th and demoi-graph ic aspects. We have constructed series of wotking life table which are useful in syt uiolyioig the lirocess of growth and structural change of labor force. Work i ng life tables represent ihie life eyele of econrmic' activity in hi ypothetical cohorts, that is. gen-erat i on of men Sn bject at eat' b period ot f their lives th given ra to's o mor tali it y and of par-- tici pation in economic activities. The tabloes prot' ide measorues of the alvet'age he ng t able of economically aeti \- e life. and agespecific rates of en trannee' into and retirement from the hahn' force. In const routing working life tables, age-specific activity rates and life tabole popula- titoto which represents contemporary condi-tions of moortality in Korea au'e the basic' maltoerials. We have derived the age-specific rates foorm economically active population survey, whoich were conducted by the Bureau of Statistics, Economic Planning Borard of the Korean government. Working life tables are constructed for men wtable these materi- als in the year of 1970, 1980 and 1988 by a modified Wolfbein-Wool's method. Some of the findings may be summerized as follow : 1) A central part of constructing working life table is calculation of stationary' economic active population, which represents the number of men in the stationtary population extoected to be in the labor force at each age group in the life span. The stationary economic active population by age have generally a universal pattern, where they rise sharply in the early twenties, approach its' peak in the thirties decline thereafter. at first graolually and then more rapidly at an advanced age. Korean men show the same general pa ttern of age distribution of stationary eco-- nomic active population with sharp increase hegining from the age interval of 20 to 24, reaching to maximum level at older age. The population. however, presumably, increased substantially due to increaseing school atte endance rates. Another difference exiSts in the youngest age groups, that is the activity rate in the year of 1988 is lower than that of Japan. The table shows an analysis of changes in the age distrihution of labor force between 1970, 1980 and 1988. 2) It was shown an analysis of changes in the age distribution and cause of separation from labor force. The entrance rate to labor force has increased from 18~\5 persons to 299 persons per 1000 head of stationary population between that of 1980 than that of 1988 for Korean men in 20~24 age group. The entrace rate to labor force shows a rapid entrance appearance concentrated on the 15~24 age group. The separation rate from labor force by retirment in Korea in the year of 1988 shows a great difference of the about four times as much as that of Japan. 3) The functions of table illustrate the patterns of working life of males in Korea in 1970, 1980 and 1988. The average remaining number of economically active years, e at age 15 in 1988 is 46.39 which is 2.12 years of increase compared with that of at age 15 in 1970,1980 and 1988 are 43.90,44.27 and 46.39 respectively, showing steadily increase dur- ing the past double decade the increase in the length of economically active life various age may be considered to have come both from extention of general life expectancy and from increasing entrance rate to economic activity in high age that of working is far greater in 1988 than that of 1980. The gaps between expectation of life and average remaining years of economically active widened due to rapid improvement of mortality level in Ko- rea. This observation together with the population pressure by the appearance of a group of younger population implies that constant increase of economically inactive population among older age group.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.107-137
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• 1996

Under-utilization of Korean women's education in the labor market has been observed and pointed out as a waste of valuable human resources. Although education provides women with positive returns when they work, it has been found that Korean women's education is not much related to the likelihood of women's labor force participation. This tendency cannot be explained by micro-economic theory, which says that educated women are more likely to participate in the labor force. Thus, in this analysis, a macro-level explanation is attempted to understand Korean women's economic behaviors in relation to education. Korea's rapid industrialization since 1960 has provided ample job opportunities mostly for less educated women. On the other hand, increasing demand for educated female labor has been moderate. Various restriction against women, especially married women, have prevailed in the Korean labor market. Restrictions against women and the marriage bar tend to be selectively applied to decent white-collar jobs, mostly affecting educated women. Furthermore, there has been no shortage of educated male labor due to its adequate supply. Since Korean women spend most of their adult lives in marriage, married women's low participation in the labor force is a critical factor for the low economic returns to women's education throughout their lifetime. Restriction against married women in the labor market also existed in the past of the United States and the Great Britain. However, along with the expansion of the service sector, married women in great numbers flowed into non-manual jobs. The post-1940 increase of married women in the labor force in those countries can be understood to be a result of a labor shortage for non-manual jobs. Also in Taiwan, which shares many common cultural and economic backgrounds with Korea, the marriage bar has been in decline since the late 1970s, along with an increasing demand for female labor in the service sector. In sum, the changes in the demand structure and the supply of educated male labor force will contribute to the lift of the marrige bar in Korea.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.241-268
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• 2006

This study aim to examine the optimum population in Korea, which has the lowest fertility rate in the world. This study has significance because this rapid decline in the fertility rate is expected to bring the decrease of the population and unbalance in the population composition in Korea. From the social welfare perspective, the optimum population is guided by maximization of the social welfare level per person or the social welfare level in a society. The optimum population can be defined as follows: The proportion of older adults 65 and over is 15-17%, the proportion of work force is 64-69%, the index of aging is 72-104. Within the current population and population composition, the optimum population is estimated as 4.85-4.95 million. These findings imply that we need to remove causes of low fertility rate and prepare for policies encouraging immigration of labor force from foreign countries. In addition, policies and programs where children can be grown up in good environments and women and older adults can participate in labor force should be established.

• Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.65-74
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• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to predict industrial accident rate using time series analysis. Methods: The rates of industrial accident and occupational injury death were analyzed using industrial accident statistics analysis system of the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency from 2001 to 2014. Time series analysis was done using the most recent data, such as raw materials of Economically Active Population Survey, Economic Statistics System of the Bank of Korea, and e-National indicators. The best-fit model with time series analysis to predict occupational injury was developed by identifying predictors when the value of Akaike Information Criteria was the lowest point. Variables into the model were selected through a series of expertises' consultations and literature review, which consisted of socioeconomic structure, labor force structure, working conditions, and occupational accidents. Results: Indexes at the meso- and macro-levels predicting well occurrence of occupational accidents and occupational injury death were labor force participation rate for ages 45-49 and budget for small scaled workplace support. The rates of industrial accident and occupational injury death are expected to decline. Conclusion: For reducing industrial accident continuously, we call for safe employment policy of economically active middle aged adults and support for improving safety work environment of small sized workplace.