• Title/Summary/Keyword: decision-making reliability

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A Study on the Development of Construction Budget Estimating Model for Public Office Buildings based on Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망 기반의 공공청사 공사비 예산 예측모델 개발 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeon Jin;Kim, Han Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.22-34
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    • 2023
  • Predicting accurately the construction cost budget in the early stages of construction projects is crucial to support the client's decision-making and achieve the objectives of the construction project. This holds true for public construction projects as well. However, the current methods for predicting construction cost budgets in the early stages of public construction projects are not sophisticated enough in terms of accuracy and reliability, indicating a need for improvement. The objective of this study is to develop a construction cost budget prediction model that can be utilized in the early stages of public building projects using an artificial neural network (ANN). In this study, an artificial neural network model was developed using the SPSS Statistics program and the data provided by the Public Procurement Service. The level of construction cost budget prediction was analyzed, and the accuracy of the model was validated through additional testing. The validation results demonstrated that the developed artificial neural network model exhibited an error range for estimates that can be utilized in the early stages of projects, indicating the potential to predict construction cost budgets more accurately by incorporating various project conditions.

Predicting Future ESG Performance using Past Corporate Financial Information: Application of Deep Neural Networks (심층신경망을 활용한 데이터 기반 ESG 성과 예측에 관한 연구: 기업 재무 정보를 중심으로)

  • Min-Seung Kim;Seung-Hwan Moon;Sungwon Choi
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.85-100
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    • 2023
  • Corporate ESG performance (environmental, social, and corporate governance) reflecting a company's strategic sustainability has emerged as one of the main factors in today's investment decisions. The traditional ESG performance rating process is largely performed in a qualitative and subjective manner based on the institution-specific criteria, entailing limitations in reliability, predictability, and timeliness when making investment decisions. This study attempted to predict the corporate ESG rating through automated machine learning based on quantitative and disclosed corporate financial information. Using 12 types (21,360 cases) of market-disclosed financial information and 1,780 ESG measures available through the Korea Institute of Corporate Governance and Sustainability during 2019 to 2021, we suggested a deep neural network prediction model. Our model yielded about 86% of accurate classification performance in predicting ESG rating, showing better performance than other comparative models. This study contributed the literature in a way that the model achieved relatively accurate ESG rating predictions through an automated process using quantitative and publicly available corporate financial information. In terms of practical implications, the general investors can benefit from the prediction accuracy and time efficiency of our proposed model with nominal cost. In addition, this study can be expanded by accumulating more Korean and international data and by developing a more robust and complex model in the future.

The Measurement of Social Carrying Capacity on the Total Amount of Vehicles for Estimation of the Appropriate Number of Vehicles in U-do Island (적정입도차량대수 산정을 위한 자동차 총량제에 대한 사회적 수용력 측정)

  • Hwang, Kyung Soo;Ko, Tae Ho;Lim, Jung Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.5D
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    • pp.605-610
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    • 2009
  • The either satisfaction levels or limits of tolerance levels felt by the users in the certain space/region should be examined for measuring social capacity on the total amount of vehicles. The reliability of measuring social carrying capacity depends primarily on decreasing the strategic responding biases. To induce the honest responses to preferences, Dichotomous Choice which is specifically known as the Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice was adopted in this research to suggest the measurement methodology of social carrying capacity on the total amount of vehicles in U-do island. The empirical test was carried out the U-do island, an administrative district of Jeju Special Self-Governing Province. The number of vehicles satisfied by the 10% of residents was 390 and the satisfactory vehicle number was decreased to 132 extended to 90% of residents. This research, based on the political decision making criteria, set up the social carrying capacity in U-do island. The vehicle number satisfied by 50% of residents was 227, which meant the same number of residents turn to be supporter in case of political actions.

Statistical Data Extraction and Validation from Graph for Data Integration and Meta-analysis (데이터통합과 메타분석을 위한 그래프 통계량 추출과 검증)

  • Sung Ryul Shim;Yo Hwan Lim;Myunghee Hong;Gyuseon Song;Hyun Wook Han
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2021
  • The objective of this study was to describe specific approaches for data extraction from graph when statistical information is not directly reported in some articles, enabling data intergration and meta-analysis for quantitative data synthesis. Particularly, meta-analysis is an important analysis tool that allows the right decision making for evidence-based medicine by systematically and objectively selects target literature, quantifies the results of individual studies, and provides the overall effect size. For data integration and meta-analysis, we investigated the strength points about the introduction and application of Adobe Acrobet Reader and Python-based Jupiter Lab software, a computer tool that extracts accurate statistical figures from graphs. We used as an example data that was statistically verified throught an previous studies and the original data could be obtained from ClinicalTrials.gov. As a result of meta-analysis of the original data and the extraction values of each computer software, there was no statistically significant difference between the extraction methods. In addition, the intra-rater reliability of between researchers was confirmed and the consistency was high. Therefore, In terms of maintaining the integrity of statistical information, measurement using a computational tool is recommended rather than the classically used methods.

Quantitative Deterioration and Maintenance Profiles of Typical Steel Bridges based on Response Surface Method (응답면 기법을 이용한 강교의 열화 및 보수보강 정량화 이력 모델)

  • Park, Seung-Hyun;Park, Kyung Hoon;Kim, Hee Joong;Kong, Jung-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6A
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    • pp.765-778
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    • 2008
  • Performance Profiles are essential to predict the performance variation over time for the bridge management system (BMS) based on risk management. In general, condition profiles based on experts opinion and/or visual inspection records have been used widely because obtaining profiles based on real performance is not easy. However, those condition profiles usually don't give a good consistency to the safety of bridges, causing practical problems for the effective bridge management. The accuracy of performance evaluation is directly related to the accuracy of BMS. The reliability of the evaluation is important to produce the optimal solution for distributing maintenance budget reasonably. However, conventional methods of bridge assessment are not suitable for a more sophisticated decision making procedure. In this study, a method to compute quantitative performance profiles has been proposed to overcome the limitations of those conventional models. In Bridge Management Systems, the main role of performance profiles is to compute and predict the performance of bridges subject to lifetime activities with uncertainty. Therefore, the computation time for obtaining an optimal maintenance scenario is closely related to the efficiency of the performance profile. In this study, the Response Surface Method (RSM) based on independent and important design variables is developed for the rapid computation. Steel box bridges have been investigated because the number of independent design variables can be reduced significantly due to the high dependency between design variables.

Life-Cycle Cost Effective Optimal Seismic Retrofit and Maintenance Strategy of Bridge Structures - (II) Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (교량의 생애주기비용 효율적인 최적 내진보강과 유지관리전략 - (II) 생애주기비용해석 방법론)

  • Lee, Kwang-Min;Cho, Hyo-Nam;Chung, Jee-Seung;An, Hyoung-Jun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.6A
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    • pp.977-988
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    • 2006
  • The goal of this study is to develop a realistic methodology for determination of the Life-Cycle Cost (LCC)-effective optimal seismic retrofit and maintenance strategy of deteriorating bridges. The proposed methodology is based on the concept of minimum LCC which is expressed as the sum of present value of seismic retrofit costs, expected maintenance costs, and expected economic losses with the constraints such as design requirements and acceptable risk of death. The proposed methodology is applied to the LCC-effective optimal seismic retrofit and maintenance strategy of a steel bridge considered as a example bridge in the accompanying study, and various conditions such as corrosion environments and Average Daily Traffic Volumes (ADTVs) are considered to investigate the effects on total expected LCC. In addition, to verify the validity of the developed methodology, the results are compared with the existing methodology. From the numerical investigation, it may be positively expected that the proposed methodology can be effectively utilized as a practical tool for the decision-making of LCC-effective optimal seismic retrofit and maintenance strategy of deteriorating bridges.

Integrated Sensing Module for Environmental Information Acquisition on Construction Site (건설현장 환경정보 수집을 위한 통합 센싱모듈 개발)

  • Moon, Seonghyeon;Lee, Gitaek;Hwang, Jaehyun;Chi, Seokho;Won, Daeyoun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2024
  • The monitoring of environmental information (e.g. noise, dust, vibration, temperature, humidity) is crucial to the safe and sustainable operation of a construction site. However, commercial sensors exhibit certain drawbacks when applied on-site. First, the installation cost is prohibitively high. Second, these sensors have been engineered without considering the rugged and harsh conditions of a construction site, resulting in error-prone sensing. Third, construction sites are compelled to allocate additional resources in terms of manpower, expenses, and physical spaces to accommodate individual sensors. This research developed an integrated sensing module to measure the environmental information in construction site. The sensing module slashes the installation cost to 3.3%, is robust enough to harsh and outdoor sites, and consolidates multiple sensors into a single unit. The sensing module also supports GPS, LTE, and real-time sensing. The evaluation showed remarkable results including 97.5% accuracy and 99.9% precision in noise measurement, an 89.7% accuracy in dust measurement, and a 93.5% reliability in data transmission. This research empowers the collection of substantial volumes and high-quality environmental data from construction sites, providing invaluable support to decision-making process. These encompass objective regulatory compliance checking, simulations of environmental data dispersion, and the development of environmental mitigation strategies.

Comparative analysis of wavelet transform and machine learning approaches for noise reduction in water level data (웨이블릿 변환과 기계 학습 접근법을 이용한 수위 데이터의 노이즈 제거 비교 분석)

  • Hwang, Yukwan;Lim, Kyoung Jae;Kim, Jonggun;Shin, Minhwan;Park, Youn Shik;Shin, Yongchul;Ji, Bongjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.209-223
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    • 2024
  • In the context of the fourth industrial revolution, data-driven decision-making has increasingly become pivotal. However, the integrity of data analysis is compromised if data quality is not adequately ensured, potentially leading to biased interpretations. This is particularly critical for water level data, essential for water resource management, which often encounters quality issues such as missing values, spikes, and noise. This study addresses the challenge of noise-induced data quality deterioration, which complicates trend analysis and may produce anomalous outliers. To mitigate this issue, we propose a noise removal strategy employing Wavelet Transform, a technique renowned for its efficacy in signal processing and noise elimination. The advantage of Wavelet Transform lies in its operational efficiency - it reduces both time and costs as it obviates the need for acquiring the true values of collected data. This study conducted a comparative performance evaluation between our Wavelet Transform-based approach and the Denoising Autoencoder, a prominent machine learning method for noise reduction.. The findings demonstrate that the Coiflets wavelet function outperforms the Denoising Autoencoder across various metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The superiority of the Coiflets function suggests that selecting an appropriate wavelet function tailored to the specific application environment can effectively address data quality issues caused by noise. This study underscores the potential of Wavelet Transform as a robust tool for enhancing the quality of water level data, thereby contributing to the reliability of water resource management decisions.

A Study on the Determinants of Investment in Startup Accelerators (스타트업 액셀러레이터의 투자결정요인에 대한 연구)

  • Heo, Joo-yeun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.13-35
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    • 2020
  • Startup accelerators are a new type of investors providing a certain amount of shares for imparting education, mentoring, networking, and providing space and seed money that can directly resolve the difficulties faced by nascent entrepreneurs (Clarysse, 2016). Startup accelerators have expanded worldwide as their influence over the startup ecosystem has increasingly been established (Pauwels et al., 2016; Cohen & Hochberg, 2014). This study was conducted to derive investment determinants of startup accelerators that are emerging as major investment players around the world. To this end, the accelerator-type determinants of investment were derived. As previous research on this topic is nonexistent, this process involved qualitative meta-synthesis, literature reviews, observation, and in-depth interviews. First, more than 30 research papers were examined for the determinants of investment for firms at an early stage of their foundation, and the categories and determinants of investment in the relevant studies were comparatively analyzed using qualitative meta-synthesis. Further, related data were investigated to identify the characteristics of accelerators, and the startup evaluation process of US accelerators was studied. The more than 100 questions raised during this process were coded to examine the determinants of investment that accelerators considered important. In-depth interviews were conducted with four US accelerators to identify the characteristics of accelerators and key determinants of investment. Ultimately, 5 categories of accelerator-type determinants of investment and 26 subordinate determinants of investment were derived. The results were verified and supplemented by consulting with seven accelerators in Korea. The results were confirmed after pilot tests and verification by seven domestic accelerators. After confirming the accelerator-type determinants, the reliability of them was verified by examining the importance and priority of each category through the quantitative survey of Korean accelerators. The research that elicited the accelerator-type investment determinants is the first research and is expected to be a major reference to the progress of subsequent studies. This research that systematically derived the investment determinants of the accelerator is expected to make major contributions to the progress of follow-up studies, the process of selecting startups, and the investment decision-making process of the accelerators.

Development and Validation of the Social Entrepreneurship Measurement Tools: From an Organizational-Level Behavioral Perspective (사회적기업가정신 척도 개발 및 타당화 연구: 조직차원의 행동적 관점에서)

  • Cho, Han Jun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.97-113
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    • 2023
  • In order to generalize the social entrepreneurship model with cooperation orientation and increase the possibility of using the model, this study developed a measurement tool and tested it with 389 executives of social enterprises. For the development of the measurement tool, preliminary measurement items were formed through review of previous studies, and a questionnaire was tentatively composed of 40 measurement items in five areas through an expert panel review of the measurement items. A total of 389 questionnaires were collected by conducting a questionnaire survey targeting Korean social enterprise managers, and exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis were conducted using 375 questionnaires that could be analyzed. Five factors for 24 items were derived through exploratory factor analysis and reliability analysis. Through a series of analysis processes including primary and secondary confirmatory factor analysis, the model fit of the newly constructed social entrepreneurship research model was confirmed, and the validity and reliability of the measurement tools were verified. As a result of this study, the model fit of the social entrepreneurship model(social value orientation; innovativeness; pro-activeness; risk-taking; cooperation orientation) is verified, thereby improving the theoretical explanatory power of social entrepreneurship research and at the same time providing the basis and basis for theoretical expansion of follow-up research. The study proved the possibility of generalizing the social entrepreneurship model with added cooperation orientation, and at the same time, the measurement tool used in this study was widely used as a tool to measure social entrepreneurship theoretically and practically. In addition, it was confirmed that the cooperation orientation is manifested in corporate decision-making and activity behaviors for resource mobilization and capacity building, opportunity and performance creation, social capital and network reinforcement, and governance establishment of social enterprises.

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