• Title/Summary/Keyword: decision-making reliability

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Water Supply Risk Assessment of Agricultural Reservoirs using Irrigation Vulnerability Model and Cluster Analysis (관개취약성 평가모형 및 군집분석을 활용한 용수공급 위험도 평가)

  • Nam, Won-Ho;Kim, Taegon;Hong, Eun-Mi;Hayes, Michael J.;Svoboda, Mark D.
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.59-67
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    • 2015
  • Because reservoirs that supply irrigation water play an important role in water resource management, it is necessary to evaluate the vulnerability of this particular water supply resource. The purpose of this study is to provide water supply risk maps of agricultural reservoirs in South Korea using irrigation vulnerability model and cluster analysis. To quantify water supply risk, irrigation vulnerability indices are estimated to evaluate the performance of the water supply on the agricultural reservoir system using a probability theory and reliability analysis. First, the irrigation vulnerability probabilities of 1,346 reservoirs managed by Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC) were analyzed using meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations over the past 30 years (1981-2010). Second, using the K-mean method of non-hierarchical cluster analysis and pre-simulation approach, cluster analysis was applied to classify into three groups for characterizing irrigation vulnerability in reservoirs. The morphology index, watershed area, irrigated area, and ratio between watershed and irrigated area are selected as the clustering analysis parameters. It is suggested that the water supply risk map be utilized as a basis for the establishment of risk management measures, and could provide effective information for a reasonable decision making on drought risk mitigation.

Technology Improvement Assessment of Gas Hydrate R&D Project using Analytic Network Process (네트워크 분석과정을 적용한 가스하이드레이트 개발 사업의 기술향상도 평가)

  • Song, Sueng-GGock;Heo, Eunng-Yung;Lee, You-Ah
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.60-84
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    • 2011
  • This study accomplished technology improvement assessment of Gashydrate R&D project using ANP method which can deal with the sophisticated decisions involving a variety of interactions and dependencies. Criteria were selected by consultation and questionnaires with experts in four technology parts of gas hydrate project, and then the network was formed from relation with criteria and alternatives. As the result of analysis, the weight matrix was derived and the various relation in the network was able to be verified. The analysis was accomplished with four technology parts - geophysical exploration technology, geological and geochemical technology, analysis of deep-drill cores and stability technology, production technology - and the 'reliability' criterion ranked the highest of all parts. The rank of other criteria and the result of technology improvement assessment reflected the level of each technology. Thus, the result of this study will contribute to policy decision-making for developing and evaluating gas hydrate technology and other R&D projects.

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A Study on a Two-Axis Solar Tracking System Based on Fuzzy Logic Control (퍼지 논리 제어를 기반으로 한 2축 태양광 추적시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Byeongwon;Lee, Hui-Bae;Bae, Cherl-O
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.531-537
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    • 2015
  • In order to maximize power output from the solar panels, one needs to keep the panels aligned with the sun. So solar tracker having high reliability must be designed. This paper cares about the design and evaluation of a two-axis solar tracker system based on fuzzy logic control with LabVIEW. The research focus on planning mechanical parts, making an intelligent controller which controls and monitors all parameters via user interface implemented of a fuzzy decision support system for control of photovoltaic panel movement. We also develop a real solar tracker system and analyze the influence indexes such as environment, weather, season, and light condition. The solar tracker is tested in real condition and all parameters related to the system operation are recorded and analyzed. The developed solar tracking system got a much higher efficiency about 38 % compare to fixed solar panel although the weather condition is affected a lot to the solar panel. So we confirmed the our auto tracking system is more effective and can allow more energy to be produced.

Development of Profitability-forecasting Model for Apartment Reconstruction Projects using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (확률적 위험도 분석 모형을 이용한 아파트 재건축사업의 수익성예측모델 개발)

  • Woo, Kwang-Min;Lee, Hak-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.54-59
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    • 2007
  • Recently, Apartment Reconstruction Projects are performing only with the basis of profitability without establishing either certain criteria or standard guideline. In addition, the profitability information contained in a disposal plan tends to be considered as a fixed value, and it is frequently changeable because reconstruction projects have such a long time to complete and many participants with respective interests. As mentioned above, the new approach needs to be developed which covers the limitation of the unvaried one. Consequently, this study focuses on the probability approach considering not only variances that affect the profit, but the relationship between profit and risk, and then is modeling. This study is anticipated to improve the reliability and accuracy of expected value as well as apply to the decision making criteria quantitively about potentially hidden risks in that projects.

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Development of Bridge Life-Cycle Management System based on Information and Communication Technology (ICT 기반 교량 생애주기 관리시스템 개발)

  • Park, Kyung-Hoon;Sun, Jong-Wan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2016
  • The computerized management system for bridges is required due to the increased service life and number of bridges. This paper provides information and communication technology (ICT) - based bridge management system (BMS) to enable life cycle management through a comparative study with the development trend and function of domestic and foreign BMSs. BMS developed as an operation system combined an internet and mobile program, and was based on GIS technology and an object-based information management system. BMS supports the establishment of long-term strategies and short-term plans based on predicting the life-cycle performance profile and the necessary budget by object-based informatization for the whole life-cycle information of bridges. Useful knowledge information for supporting decision making was derived from the life-cycle management strategies establishment for approximately 6,000 existing bridges. BMS was developed to be applicable to all nationwide road bridges. In addition, it can be used practically to maintain the performance based on accurate maintenance result management, reducing cost by reasonable budget management, and enhancing the convenience and reliability of field data collection.

Kyphotic Angle Measurement Accuracy for Vertebral Osteoporotic Compression Fracture; Reliable Method for Kyphotic Angle Measurement

  • Hong, Jae-Taek;Lee, Sang-Won;Son, Byung-Chul;Sung, Jae-Hoon;Park, Choon-Keun;Kim, Moon-Chan
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.256-259
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    • 2006
  • Objective : Having a reliable and reproducible measurement technique to measure the sagittal contour in vertebral fractures is paramount to clinical decision making. This study is designed to determine the most reliable measurement technique in osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. Methods : Fifteen lateral radiographs of thoracic and lumbar fractures were selected and measured on two separate occasions by three spine surgeons using six different measurement techniques [Centroid, Harrison Posterior Tangent Methods and 4 different types of modified Cobb method]. The radiograph quality was assessed and the center beam location was determined. Statistical analysis including ANOVA for repeated measures was carried out using the SAS software [v 8.0]. Results : The inter and intraobserver variance of the Cobb method 4 and Harrison posterior tangent method were significantly lower than the other four methods. The intraobserver correlation coefficients were the most consistent using the Cobb method 4 [0.982]. which was followed by the Harrison posterior tangent [0.953] and Cobb methods 1 [0.874]. The intraobserver agreement [% of repeated measures within 5 degrees of the original measurement] ranged from 42% to 98% for each technique for all three observers, with the Cobb method 4 showing the best agreement [97.8%] followed by the Harrison posterior tangent method [937%]. Conclusion : The Cobb method-4 and Harrison posterior tangent methods, when applied to measuring the kyphosis, are reliable and have a similar small error range. The Cobb method 4 shows the best overall reliability. However, the centroid method and Cobb method using a fractured endplate do not produce an accurate result due to inter and intraobserver differences in determining the baseline.

Effective Test and Evaluation Approaches for Reliable Defense Systems Development examined through Domestic Defense Cases (국내 사례로 살펴보는 국방체계 개발의 신뢰성을 높이기 위한 시험평가 방안)

  • Seo, Kyung-Min;Lee, Chan Young;Bang, Kyoung Woon;Lee, Dong Chul;Choi, Woo Young;Kim, Tag Gon
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents practical issues for test and evaluation(T&E) methods to develop defense systems. Our argument is motivated by several domestic defense cases and the cases lead us to discuss two main factors for reliable defense systems development: 1) statistical approaches and 2) technical schemes. Specifically, statistical approaches enable to provide credible interpretations about T&E results in the decision-making process. With practical T&E results of the “Red Shark” torpedo, we performed statistical hypothesis tests and suggest a minimum sample size to accept the hypothesis. Next, technical schemes have more direct effects on improving reliability of developed defense systems and we shortly introduce tools development for systems verification that is required to integrate several sub-systems, e.g., combat, sensor, weapon, and communication systems, within a defense system. We additionally summary some domain cases using modeling and simulation techniques for successful T&E. In closing, we expect that the paper shows empirical investigation and lessons learned with these two practical issues, which provides a guide those who desire to make decisions about reliable defense systems development.

Development of an Instrument for Measuring Action Competence on Climate Change within High School Students (고등학생 기후변화 대응 실천역량 검사도구의 개발)

  • Baek, Seongheui;Shin, Hyeonjeong;Kim, Chan-Jong
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.533-542
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to develop an instrument for measuring high school students' action competence on climate change (ACoCC). The instrument is defined as the construct comprised of seven factors and thirty-five items and takes approximately 15 minutes to fill out. A panel of experts and students' content validation were undertaken to modify the items. Five hundred and twenty-eight first and second graders in Korean high schools participated in the instrument survey. To assess the reliability and validity of ACoCC instrument, item analysis (mean, skewness, kurtosis, item-total correlation), internal consistency estimate, and confirmatory factor analysis were used. It was appropriate to use the 7-dimensional ACoCC instrument (knowledge about climate change, climate change sensibility, reflection, communication, integrated thinking, willingness, decision making), with 35 items for high school students. The following instrument was self-report given in the 5-point Likert scale (1=strongly disagree, 2=disagree, 3=neutral, 4=agree, 5=strongly agree). The internal consistency coefficient was shown as a whole was shown as 0.953, and the subscale's internal consistency coefficient ranged from 0.786 to 0.862.

Database Reverse Engineering Using Master Data in Microservice Architecture (마스터 데이터를 활용한 마이크로 서비스 아키텍처에서의 데이터베이스 리버스 엔지니어링)

  • Shin, Kwang-chul;Lee, Choon Y.
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.523-532
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    • 2019
  • Microservice architecture focuses on dividing it into small and lightweight services to build for the purpose of performing very close business functions. So it tends to concentrate only on agility, productivity, reliability, and ease of deployment of software development. Microservice architecture considers database as just a file or storage for storing and extracting data, emphasizing that data quality can be sacrificed for convenience and scalability of software development. Database reverse engineering for understanding database structure and data semantics is needed for data utilization for business decision making. However, it is difficult that reverse database engineering is applied in microservice architecture that neglects data quality. This study proposes database reverse engineering method that utilizes master data to restore the conceptual data model as a solution. The proposed method is applied to the return service database implemented by microservice architecture and verified its applicability.

Parts Management Method for Weapon System Parts Standardization (무기체계 부품 표준화를 위한 부품관리 방안)

  • Jung, Hyun-Woo;Shim, Bo-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.409-417
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    • 2021
  • The standardization of weapon system parts is one of the elements of parts management and is an important factor for reducing the cost of acquiring and maintaining a weapon system, enhancing its reliability, improving interoperability, alleviating parts obsolescence problems, improving logistics efficiency, and strengthening the military's combat readiness. This study examined how to manage parts of domestic R&D weapon systems, overseas imports weapon system parts, and various commercial parts from a standardization perspective, and to study parts management methods for standardizing parts in the future. This system was used to achieve systematic part standardization in a military weapon system. To this end, this study investigated what elements are used to standardize weapon system parts. The importance and weight of each element were calculated using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), one of the decision-making techniques, and the design stage standards using the part selection method were studied. Through this, the selection process of standard parts, which has been made according to the experience and subjective judgment of designers and personnel, was improved to propose a systematic and objective method of standardizing weapons parts.