• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.604-609
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• 2003

Flaw geometries, applied stress, and material properties are major input variables for the fracture mechanics analysis. Probabilistic approach can be applied for the consideration of uncertainties within these input variables. But probabilistic analysis requires many assumptions due to the lack of initial flaw distributions data. In this study correlations are examined between initial flaw distributions and in-service flaw distributions on structures under cyclic load. For the analysis, LEFM theories and Monte Carlo simulation are applied. Result shows that in-service flaw distributions are determined by initial flaw distributions rather than fatigue crack growth rate. So initial flaw distribution can be derived from in-service flaw distributions.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.25-36
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• 2004

This study was conducted to derive the design rainfall by the consecutive duration using the at-site frequency analysis. Using the errors, K-S tests and LH-moment ratios, Log Pearson type 3 (LP3) and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions of Gamma and Non-Gamma Family, respectively were identified as the optimal probability distributions among applied distributions. Parameters of GEV and LP3 distributions were estimated by the method of L and LH-moments and the Indirect method of moments respectively. Design rainfalls following the consecutive duration were derived by at-site frequency analysis using the observed and simulated data resulted from Monte Carlo techniques. Relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE) and relative efficiency (RE) in RRMSE for the design rainfall derived by at-site analysis in the observed and simulated data were computed and compared. It has shown that at-site frequency analysis by GEV distribution using L-moments is confirmed as more reliable than that of GEV and LP3 distributions using LH-moments and Indirect method of moments in view of relative efficiency.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.49-55
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• 2009

This paper is to induce design floods through L-moment with 3 and 4 parameter Kappa distributions including test of independence by Wald-Wolfowitz, homogeneity by Mann-Whitney and outlier by Grubbs-Beck on annual maximum flood flows at 9 water level gaging stations in Han, Nakdong and Geum Rivers of South Korea. After analyzing appropriateness of the data of annual maximum flood flows by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, 3 and 4 Kappa distributions were applied and the appropriateness was judged. The parameters of 3 and 4 Kappa distributions were estimated by L-moment method and the design floods by water level gaging station was calculated. Through the comparative analysis using the relative root mean square errors (RRMSE) and relative absolute errors (RAE) calculated by 3 and 4 parameter Kappa distributions with 4 plotting position formulas, the result showed that the design floods by 4 parameter Kappa distribution with Weibull and Cunnane plotting position formulas are closer to the observed data than those obtained by 3 parameter Kappa distribution with 4 plotting position formulas and 4 parameter Kappa distribution with Hazen and Gringorten plotting position formulas.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.50 no.6
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• pp.37-47
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• 2008

Photovoltaic power generation is currently being recognized as one of the most popular sources for renewable resources over the country. Although it is also being adapted to rural area for may reasons, it is important to estimate the magnitudes of power outputs with reliable statistical methodologies, while applying historical daily solar energy data, for correct feasibility analysis. In this study, one of the well-known statistical methodologies is employed to define the appropriate probability distributions for monthly power outputs for the selected rural area, county of Seo-san, province of Chungnam. The results imply that the assumption of normal distributions for several months may lead to incorrect decision-making and therefore lead to the unreliable feasibility analysis. Generalized beta and triangular distributions were found to be superior to normal distribution, when describing monthly probability distributions for daily photovoltaic power. Based on the appropriate distributions resulted from this study, Monte Carlo simulation technique was also applied to provide additional flexible information for the relevant decision makers. This study found out new finding that the probability distributions should be considered to make planning of the photovoltaic power system in rural village unit, in order to give reasonable economic analysis to the decision makers.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.1209-1217
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• 2006

For the mixture of shifted Poisson distributions, a method of parameter estimation is proposed. The range of the shifted parameters are estimated first and for each shifted parameter set EM algorithm is applied to estimate the other parameters of the distribution. Among the estimated parameter sets, one with minimum likelihood for given data is to be set as the final estimate. In simulation experiments, the suggested estimation method shows to have a good performance.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.1023-1030
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• 2003

When X and Y have independent normal distributions, we develop a Bayesian testing procedure for the equality of two coefficients of variation. Under the reference prior of the coefficient of variation, we propose a Bayesian test procedure for the equality of two coefficients of variation using fractional Bayes factor. A real data example is provided.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.247-257
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• 2007

In this paper, we develop the noninformative priors for the common shape parameter in the gamma distributions. We develop the matching priors and reveal that the second order matching prior does not exist. It turns out that the one-at-a-time reference prior and the two group reference prior satisfy a first order probability matching criterion. Some simulation study is peformed.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.757-764
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• 2010

In this paper, we develop the reference priors for the common location parameter in the half-normal distributions with unequal scale paramters. We derive the reference priors as noninformative prior and prove the propriety of joint posterior distribution under the general prior including the reference priors. Through the simulation study, we show that the proposed reference priors match the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.1409-1418
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• 2008

In this paper, we develop the reference priors for the common location parameter in two parameter exponential distributions. We derive the reference priors and prove the propriety of joint posterior distribution under the general prior including the reference priors. Through the simulation study, we show that the proposed reference prior matches the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.335-343
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• 2010

In this paper, we develop the reference priors for the common scale parameter in the nonregular Pareto distributions with unequal shape paramters. We derive the reference priors as noninformative prior and prove the propriety of joint posterior distribution under the general prior including the reference priors. Through the simulation study, we show that the proposed reference priors match the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense.