• Title/Summary/Keyword: customer churn

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Consumption Changes during COVID-19 through the Analysis of Credit Card Usage : Focused on Jeju Province

  • YOON, Dong-Hwa;YANG, Kwon-Min;OH, Hyeon-Gon;KIM, Mincheol;CHANG, Mona
    • The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study is to analyze the changes of consumption patterns to diagnose the economic impacts on consumers' market during COVID-19, and to suggest implications to overcome the new social and economic crisis of Jeju Island. Research design, data, and methodology: We collected a set of credit card transaction records issued by BC Card Company from merchants in Jeju Special Self-Governing Province for past 4 years from 2017 to 2020 from the Jeju Data Hub run by Jeju Special Self-Governing Province. The big data contains details of approved credit card transactions including the approval numbers, amount, locations and types of merchants, time and age of users, etc. The researchers summed up amount in monthly basis, transforming big data to small data to analyze the changes of consumption before and after COVID-19. Results: Sales fell sharply in transportation industries including airlines, and overall consumption by age group decreased while the decrease in consumption among the seniors was relatively small. The sales of Yeon-dong and Yongdam-dong in Jeju City also fell significantly compared to other regions. As a result of the paired t-test of all 73 samples in Jeju City, the p-value of the mean consumption of the credit card in 2019 and 2020 is significant, statistically proven that the total consumption amount in the two years is different. Conclusions: We found there are sensitive spots that can be strategically approached based on the changes in consumption patterns by industry, region, and age although most of companies and small businesses have been hit by COVID-19. It is necessary for local companies and for the government to be focusing their support on upgrading services, in order to prevent declining sales and job instability for their employees, creating strategies to retain jobs and prevent customer churn in the face of the crisis. As Jeju Province is highly dependent on the tertiary industry, including tourism, it is suggested to create various strategies to overcome the crisis of the pandemic by constantly monitoring the sales trends of local companies.

Stage of Service Switching Behavior based on the Transtheoretical Model: Focused on Accommodation Sharing Economy Service (범이론적 모형에 기반한 서비스 전환 행동 단계 연구: 숙박공유경제 서비스를 중심으로)

  • Byounggu Choi
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.183-209
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    • 2017
  • With changes in information technology (IT), many innovative IT-based services, such as AirBnB, have become popular. Switching behavior toward new and innovative services become a major issue for managers who want to attract many customers. In response, many researchers have investigated why customers switch service providers. However, little research has been conducted on the processes of switching behavior for a hedonic service. To fill this research gap, this study aimed to identify the stages of switching behavior based on transtheoretical model. Furthermore, the factors affecting the service switching behavior in stages were identified on the basis of service provider switching model. This study also hypothesized the customer's switching behavior in accommodation sharing economy service and analyzed it empirically. Results showed that the factors affecting switching behavior differ across five stages. The present results can provide a basis to prevent switching behavior and reduce churn by analyzing the difference in switching behavior among stages. This study also helps managers who want to improve organizational performance by enhancing customer retention capability.

An Empirical Study on Key Factors Affecting Churn Behavior with the Voices of Contact Center Customers (고객센터 상담내용 분석을 통한 이탈 요인에 관한 실증 연구)

  • Jang, Moonkyoung;Yoo, Byungjoon;Lee, Jaehwan
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.141-158
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    • 2017
  • Along with IT development, customers are getting more easily to express their opinions using various IT channels. In this situation, complaint management is a pressing issue for companies to acquire and maintain loyal customers with low cost. Most of previous studies have investigated customer complaint information by quantitative variables such as demographic information, transaction information, or complaint frequency, but studies focusing on qualitative aspects of complaint information are limited. Therefore, this paper considers the possibility for customers to leave even when they complain occasionally or briefly. This paper analyzes the quantitive aspects as well as the qualitative aspects using sentiment analysis with Exit-voice theory. The dataset contains 268,364 inquiries of 46,235 customers obtained from a contact center of a private security company in Korea. This paper carries out logistic regression and the results imply that the customers's explicit response and their implicit sentiment have different effect on customers leave. This study is expected to provide useful suggestions for the effective complaint management.

Response Modeling for the Marketing Promotion with Weighted Case Based Reasoning Under Imbalanced Data Distribution (불균형 데이터 환경에서 변수가중치를 적용한 사례기반추론 기반의 고객반응 예측)

  • Kim, Eunmi;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2015
  • Response modeling is a well-known research issue for those who have tried to get more superior performance in the capability of predicting the customers' response for the marketing promotion. The response model for customers would reduce the marketing cost by identifying prospective customers from very large customer database and predicting the purchasing intention of the selected customers while the promotion which is derived from an undifferentiated marketing strategy results in unnecessary cost. In addition, the big data environment has accelerated developing the response model with data mining techniques such as CBR, neural networks and support vector machines. And CBR is one of the most major tools in business because it is known as simple and robust to apply to the response model. However, CBR is an attractive data mining technique for data mining applications in business even though it hasn't shown high performance compared to other machine learning techniques. Thus many studies have tried to improve CBR and utilized in business data mining with the enhanced algorithms or the support of other techniques such as genetic algorithm, decision tree and AHP (Analytic Process Hierarchy). Ahn and Kim(2008) utilized logit, neural networks, CBR to predict that which customers would purchase the items promoted by marketing department and tried to optimized the number of k for k-nearest neighbor with genetic algorithm for the purpose of improving the performance of the integrated model. Hong and Park(2009) noted that the integrated approach with CBR for logit, neural networks, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) showed more improved prediction ability for response of customers to marketing promotion than each data mining models such as logit, neural networks, and SVM. This paper presented an approach to predict customers' response of marketing promotion with Case Based Reasoning. The proposed model was developed by applying different weights to each feature. We deployed logit model with a database including the promotion and the purchasing data of bath soap. After that, the coefficients were used to give different weights of CBR. We analyzed the performance of proposed weighted CBR based model compared to neural networks and pure CBR based model empirically and found that the proposed weighted CBR based model showed more superior performance than pure CBR model. Imbalanced data is a common problem to build data mining model to classify a class with real data such as bankruptcy prediction, intrusion detection, fraud detection, churn management, and response modeling. Imbalanced data means that the number of instance in one class is remarkably small or large compared to the number of instance in other classes. The classification model such as response modeling has a lot of trouble to recognize the pattern from data through learning because the model tends to ignore a small number of classes while classifying a large number of classes correctly. To resolve the problem caused from imbalanced data distribution, sampling method is one of the most representative approach. The sampling method could be categorized to under sampling and over sampling. However, CBR is not sensitive to data distribution because it doesn't learn from data unlike machine learning algorithm. In this study, we investigated the robustness of our proposed model while changing the ratio of response customers and nonresponse customers to the promotion program because the response customers for the suggested promotion is always a small part of nonresponse customers in the real world. We simulated the proposed model 100 times to validate the robustness with different ratio of response customers to response customers under the imbalanced data distribution. Finally, we found that our proposed CBR based model showed superior performance than compared models under the imbalanced data sets. Our study is expected to improve the performance of response model for the promotion program with CBR under imbalanced data distribution in the real world.

Feasibility of Deep Learning Algorithms for Binary Classification Problems (이진 분류문제에서의 딥러닝 알고리즘의 활용 가능성 평가)

  • Kim, Kitae;Lee, Bomi;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2017
  • Recently, AlphaGo which is Bakuk (Go) artificial intelligence program by Google DeepMind, had a huge victory against Lee Sedol. Many people thought that machines would not be able to win a man in Go games because the number of paths to make a one move is more than the number of atoms in the universe unlike chess, but the result was the opposite to what people predicted. After the match, artificial intelligence technology was focused as a core technology of the fourth industrial revolution and attracted attentions from various application domains. Especially, deep learning technique have been attracted as a core artificial intelligence technology used in the AlphaGo algorithm. The deep learning technique is already being applied to many problems. Especially, it shows good performance in image recognition field. In addition, it shows good performance in high dimensional data area such as voice, image and natural language, which was difficult to get good performance using existing machine learning techniques. However, in contrast, it is difficult to find deep leaning researches on traditional business data and structured data analysis. In this study, we tried to find out whether the deep learning techniques have been studied so far can be used not only for the recognition of high dimensional data but also for the binary classification problem of traditional business data analysis such as customer churn analysis, marketing response prediction, and default prediction. And we compare the performance of the deep learning techniques with that of traditional artificial neural network models. The experimental data in the paper is the telemarketing response data of a bank in Portugal. It has input variables such as age, occupation, loan status, and the number of previous telemarketing and has a binary target variable that records whether the customer intends to open an account or not. In this study, to evaluate the possibility of utilization of deep learning algorithms and techniques in binary classification problem, we compared the performance of various models using CNN, LSTM algorithm and dropout, which are widely used algorithms and techniques in deep learning, with that of MLP models which is a traditional artificial neural network model. However, since all the network design alternatives can not be tested due to the nature of the artificial neural network, the experiment was conducted based on restricted settings on the number of hidden layers, the number of neurons in the hidden layer, the number of output data (filters), and the application conditions of the dropout technique. The F1 Score was used to evaluate the performance of models to show how well the models work to classify the interesting class instead of the overall accuracy. The detail methods for applying each deep learning technique in the experiment is as follows. The CNN algorithm is a method that reads adjacent values from a specific value and recognizes the features, but it does not matter how close the distance of each business data field is because each field is usually independent. In this experiment, we set the filter size of the CNN algorithm as the number of fields to learn the whole characteristics of the data at once, and added a hidden layer to make decision based on the additional features. For the model having two LSTM layers, the input direction of the second layer is put in reversed position with first layer in order to reduce the influence from the position of each field. In the case of the dropout technique, we set the neurons to disappear with a probability of 0.5 for each hidden layer. The experimental results show that the predicted model with the highest F1 score was the CNN model using the dropout technique, and the next best model was the MLP model with two hidden layers using the dropout technique. In this study, we were able to get some findings as the experiment had proceeded. First, models using dropout techniques have a slightly more conservative prediction than those without dropout techniques, and it generally shows better performance in classification. Second, CNN models show better classification performance than MLP models. This is interesting because it has shown good performance in binary classification problems which it rarely have been applied to, as well as in the fields where it's effectiveness has been proven. Third, the LSTM algorithm seems to be unsuitable for binary classification problems because the training time is too long compared to the performance improvement. From these results, we can confirm that some of the deep learning algorithms can be applied to solve business binary classification problems.