• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.147-156
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• 2013

Each field of modern society, industrialization and the development of science and technology are rapidly changing. However, as a side effect of rapid social change has caused various problems. Crime of the side effects of rapid social change is a big problem. In this paper, a model for predicting crime and Markov chains applied to the crime, predictive modeling is proposed. Markov chain modeling of the existing one with the overall status of the case determined the probability of predicting the future, but this paper predict the events to increase the probability of occurrence probability of the prediction and the recent state of the entire state was divided by the probability of the prediction. And the whole state and the probability of the prediction and the recent state by applying the average of the prediction probability and the probability of the prediction model were implemented. Data was applied to the incidence of crime. As a result, the entire state applies only when the probability of the prediction than the entire state and the last state is calculated by dividing the probability value. And that means when applied to predict the probability, close to the crime was concluded that prediction.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.14 no.6_2
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• pp.89-95
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• 2014

This study analyzed a correlation between crime and meteorological changes and discomfort index of Seoul and p resented a prediction expression through the regression analysis. For data used in this study, crime data from Januar y 2008 to December 2012 of Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency and meteorological records and discomfort index recor ded in the Meteorological Agency through the portal sites were used. Based on this data, SPSS 18.0 was used for the regression analysis and the analysis of correlation between crime and meteorological changes and discomfort index and a prediction expression was derived through the analysis and the risk index was shown in 5 steps depending on predicted values obtained through the prediction expression derived. The risk index of 5 steps classified like this is considered to be used as important data for crime prevention activities.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.95-103
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• 2012

Modern society is experiencing a variety of crimes, and to prevent crime is being studied. Existing studies related to the crime of crimes that occur on spatial analysis and geographic information, or to analyze the type of criminal offense of studies have been conducted, However the existing studies of the geographical and psychological crime that occurs throughout the study area and by analyzing the motives for the crime prevention research is the most. In this paper, we introduce Markov processor model for predicting the crime is present. Of several crimes, murder, government official crimes, the incidence of violent crime has occurred over time by using the predicted incidence of crime. Presented in this paper, predictive modeling is used in a crime occurred in the average duration of the overall average number of crimes that occurred in the one-year average, which recently labeled as the average prediction was compared to if you can increase the likelihood, recent average to apply to increase the probability of the prediction that crime have been investigated.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.99-105
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• 2023

In the 4th industrial revolution, the field of criminal justice is paying attention to Legaltech using artificial intelligence to provide efficient legal services. This paper attempted to create a crime prediction model that can apply Recurrent Neural Network(RNN) to increase the potential for using legal technology in the domestic criminal justice field. To this end, the crime process was divided into pre, during, and post stages based on the criminal facts described in the judgment, utilizing crime script analysis techniques. In addition, at each time point, the method and evidence of crime were classified into objects, actions, and environments based on the sentence composition elements and the 8 principles of investigation. The case summary analysis framework derived from this study can contribute to establishing situational crime prevention strategies because it is easy to identify typical patterns of specific crime methods. Furthermore, the results of this study can be used as a useful reference for research on generating crime situation prediction data based on RNN models in future follow-up studies.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.93-101
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• 2015

In modern society, various crimes is occurred. It is necessary to predict the criminal in order to prevent crimes, various studies on the prediction of crime is in progress. Crime-related data, is announced to the statistical processing of once a year from the Public Prosecutor's Office. However, relative to the current point in time, data that has been statistical processing is a data of about two years ago. It does not fit to the data of the crime currently being generated. In This paper, crime prediction data was apply with Naver trend data. By using the Web traffic Naver trend, it is possible to obtain the data of interest level for crime currently being generated. It was constructed a modeling that can predict the crime by using traffic data of the Naver web search. There have been applied to Markov chains prediction theory. Among various crimes, murder, arson, rape, predictive modeling was applied to target. And the result of predictive modeling value was analyzed. As a result, it got the same results within 20%, based on the value of crime that actually occurred. In the future, it plan to advance research for the predictive modeling of crime that takes into the characteristics of the season.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.64-80
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• 2018

In Korea, citizens can only know general information about crime. Thus it is difficult to know how much they are exposed to crime. If the police can predict the crime risky area, it will be possible to cope with the crime efficiently even though insufficient police and enforcement resources. However, there is no prediction system in Korea and the related researches are very much poor. From these backgrounds, the final goal of this study is to develop an automated crime prediction system. However, for the first step, we build a big data set which consists of local real crime information and urban physical or non-physical data. Then, we developed a crime prediction model through machine learning method. Finally, we assumed several possible scenarios and calculated the probability of crime and visualized the results in a map so as to increase the people's understanding. Among the factors affecting the crime occurrence revealed in previous and case studies, data was processed in the form of a big data for machine learning: real crime information, weather information (temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, sunshine, insolation, snowfall, cloud cover) and local information (average building coverage, average floor area ratio, average building height, number of buildings, average appraised land value, average area of residential building, average number of ground floor). Among the supervised machine learning algorithms, the decision tree model, the random forest model, and the SVM model, which are known to be powerful and accurate in various fields were utilized to construct crime prevention model. As a result, decision tree model with the lowest RMSE was selected as an optimal prediction model. Based on this model, several scenarios were set for theft and violence cases which are the most frequent in the case city J, and the probability of crime was estimated by $250{\times}250m$ grid. As a result, we could find that the high crime risky area is occurring in three patterns in case city J. The probability of crime was divided into three classes and visualized in map by $250{\times}250m$ grid. Finally, we could develop a crime prediction model using machine learning algorithm and visualized the crime risky areas in a map which can recalculate the model and visualize the result simultaneously as time and urban conditions change.

• Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.63-79
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• 2008

With the recent development of advanced GIS and complex spatial analysis technologies, the more sophisticated technologies are being required to support the advanced knowledge for solving geographical or spatial problems in various decision support systems. In addition, necessity for research on scientific crime investigation and forensic science is increasing particularly at law enforcement agencies and investigation institutions for efficient investigation and the prevention of crimes. There are active researches on geographic profiling to predict the base location such as criminals' residence by analyzing the spatial patterns of serial crimes. However, as previous researches on geographic profiling use simply statistical methods for spatial pattern analysis and do not apply a variety of spatial and temporal analysis technologies on serial crimes, they have the low prediction accuracy. Therefore, this paper identifies the typology the spatio-temporal patterns of serial crimes according to spatial distribution of crime sites and temporal distribution on occurrence of crimes and proposes STA-BLP(Spatio-Temporal Analysis based Base Location Prediction) algorithm which predicts the base location of serial crimes more accurately based on the patterns. STA-BLP improves the prediction accuracy by considering of the anisotropic pattern of serial crimes committed by criminals who prefer specific directions on a crime trip and the learning effect of criminals through repeated movement along the same route. In addition, it can predict base location more accurately in the serial crimes from multiple bases with the local prediction for some crime sites included in a cluster and the global prediction for all crime sites. Through a variety of experiments, we proved the superiority of the STA-BLP by comparing it with previous algorithms in terms of prediction accuracy.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.89-101
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• 2017

Crime occurs differently based on not only place locations and building uses but also the characteristics of the people who use the place and the spatial structures of the buildings and locations. Therefore, if spatial big data, which contain spatial and regional properties, can be utilized, proper crime prevention measures can be enacted. Recently, with the advent of big data and the revolutionary intelligent information era, predictive policing has emerged as a new paradigm for police activities. Based on 7420 actual crime incidents occurring over three years in a typical provincial city, "J city," this study identified the areas in which crimes occurred and predicted risky areas. Spatial regression analysis was performed using spatial big data about only physical and environmental variables. Based on the results, using the street width, average number of building floors, building coverage ratio, the type of use of the first floor (Type II neighborhood living facility, commercial facility, pleasure use, or residential use), this study established a Crime Incident Prediction Model (CIPM) based on Bayesian probability theory. As a result, it was found that the model was suitable for crime prediction because the overlap analysis with the actual crime areas and the receiver operating characteristic curve (Roc curve), which evaluated the accuracy of the model, showed an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.8. It was also found that a block where the commercial and entertainment facilities were concentrated, a block where the number of building floors is high, and a block where the commercial, entertainment, residential facilities are mixed are high-risk areas. This study provides a meaningful step forward to the development of a crime prediction model, unlike previous studies that explored the spatial distribution of crime and the factors influencing crime occurrence.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.11 no.4 s.42
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• pp.221-230
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• 2006

Changing drastically, the life in a modern city has forced citizens to gradually shorten their average period of settlement, which has weakened the identity of city habitation, thus causing serious crimes and damaging the security of city greatly. Haying a highly composite structure with not only macro, but micro characteristics, city is grasped as a very composite phenomenon shown in the social, economic and spatial constitution relationships, including the personal motives of criminals. Accordingly, this study puts stress on the necessity of any crime prediction program to predict the occurrence of crimes by analyzing the occurrence patterns of sharply increasing intra-city crimes of violence on a typical, time and spatial basis and clarifying their structural dynamic relationships in a both macro and micro manner. Moreover, the deduction of various factors closely related to crime occurrence will contribute to elucidating the occurrence structure of city crimes.

• Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.17-27
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• 2020

Predicting where and when a crime may occur in an area of interest is one of many strategies of predictive policing. Multidimensional analysis, including CCTV, can overcome the limitations of hotspot prediction, especially of violent crimes. In order to identify the precursors of a crime, it is necessary to analyze dynamic data such as attributes and activities of people, social information, environmental information, traffic flows, and weather. These parameters can be recognized by CCTV. In addition, it provides accurate analysis of the circumstances of a crime in a dynamic situation, calculates the risk, and predicts the probability of a crime occurring in the near future. Additionally, it provides ways to gather historical criminal datasets, including sensitive personal information.