• Title/Summary/Keyword: crime occurrence

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Crime Incident Prediction Model based on Bayesian Probability (베이지안 확률 기반 범죄위험지역 예측 모델 개발)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2017
  • Crime occurs differently based on not only place locations and building uses but also the characteristics of the people who use the place and the spatial structures of the buildings and locations. Therefore, if spatial big data, which contain spatial and regional properties, can be utilized, proper crime prevention measures can be enacted. Recently, with the advent of big data and the revolutionary intelligent information era, predictive policing has emerged as a new paradigm for police activities. Based on 7420 actual crime incidents occurring over three years in a typical provincial city, "J city," this study identified the areas in which crimes occurred and predicted risky areas. Spatial regression analysis was performed using spatial big data about only physical and environmental variables. Based on the results, using the street width, average number of building floors, building coverage ratio, the type of use of the first floor (Type II neighborhood living facility, commercial facility, pleasure use, or residential use), this study established a Crime Incident Prediction Model (CIPM) based on Bayesian probability theory. As a result, it was found that the model was suitable for crime prediction because the overlap analysis with the actual crime areas and the receiver operating characteristic curve (Roc curve), which evaluated the accuracy of the model, showed an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.8. It was also found that a block where the commercial and entertainment facilities were concentrated, a block where the number of building floors is high, and a block where the commercial, entertainment, residential facilities are mixed are high-risk areas. This study provides a meaningful step forward to the development of a crime prediction model, unlike previous studies that explored the spatial distribution of crime and the factors influencing crime occurrence.

Visualized Determination for Installation Location of Monitoring Devices using CPTED (CPTED기법을 통한 모니터링 시스템 설치위치 시각화 결정법)

  • Kim, Joohwan;Nam, Doohee
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.145-150
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    • 2015
  • Needs about safety of residents are important in urbanized society, elderly and small-size family. People are looking for safety information system and device of CPTED. That is, Needs and Installations of CCTV increased steadily. But, scientific analysis about validity, systematic plan and location of security CCTV is nonexistent. It is simply put these devised in more demanded areas. It has limits to look for safety of residents by increasing density of CCTVs. One of the characteristics of crime is clustering and stong interconnectivity. So, exploratory spatial data of crime is geo-coded using 2 years data and carried out cluster analysis and space statistical analysis through GIS space analysis by dividing 18 variables into social economy, urban space, crime prevention facility and crime occurrence index. The result of analysis shows cluster of 5 major crimes, theft, violence and sexual violence by Nearest Neighbor distance analysis and Ripley's K function. It also shows strong crime interconnectivity through criminal correlation analysis. In case of finding criminal cluster, you can find criminal hotspot. So, in this study I found concept of hotspot and considered technique about selection of hotspot. And then, selected hotspot about 5 major crimes, theft, violence and sexual violence through Nearest Neighbor Hierarchical Spatial Clustering.

Base Location Prediction Algorithm of Serial Crimes based on the Spatio-Temporal Analysis (시공간 분석 기반 연쇄 범죄 거점 위치 예측 알고리즘)

  • Hong, Dong-Suk;Kim, Joung-Joon;Kang, Hong-Koo;Lee, Ki-Young;Seo, Jong-Soo;Han, Ki-Joon
    • Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.63-79
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    • 2008
  • With the recent development of advanced GIS and complex spatial analysis technologies, the more sophisticated technologies are being required to support the advanced knowledge for solving geographical or spatial problems in various decision support systems. In addition, necessity for research on scientific crime investigation and forensic science is increasing particularly at law enforcement agencies and investigation institutions for efficient investigation and the prevention of crimes. There are active researches on geographic profiling to predict the base location such as criminals' residence by analyzing the spatial patterns of serial crimes. However, as previous researches on geographic profiling use simply statistical methods for spatial pattern analysis and do not apply a variety of spatial and temporal analysis technologies on serial crimes, they have the low prediction accuracy. Therefore, this paper identifies the typology the spatio-temporal patterns of serial crimes according to spatial distribution of crime sites and temporal distribution on occurrence of crimes and proposes STA-BLP(Spatio-Temporal Analysis based Base Location Prediction) algorithm which predicts the base location of serial crimes more accurately based on the patterns. STA-BLP improves the prediction accuracy by considering of the anisotropic pattern of serial crimes committed by criminals who prefer specific directions on a crime trip and the learning effect of criminals through repeated movement along the same route. In addition, it can predict base location more accurately in the serial crimes from multiple bases with the local prediction for some crime sites included in a cluster and the global prediction for all crime sites. Through a variety of experiments, we proved the superiority of the STA-BLP by comparing it with previous algorithms in terms of prediction accuracy.

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The Changing Aspects of North Korea's Terror Crimes and Countermeasures : Focused on Power Conflict of High Ranking Officials after Kim Jong-IL Era (북한 테러범죄의 변화양상에 따른 대응방안 -김정일 정권 이후 고위층 권력 갈등을 중심으로)

  • Byoun, Chan-Ho;Kim, Eun-Jung
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.39
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    • pp.185-215
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    • 2014
  • Since North Korea has used terror crime as a means of unification under communism against South Korea, South Korea has been much damaged until now. And the occurrence possibility of terror crime by North Korean authority is now higher than any other time. The North Korean terror crimes of Kim Il Sung era had been committed by the dictator's instruction with the object of securing governing fund. However, looking at the terror crimes committed for decades during Kim Jung Il authority, it is revealed that these terror crimes are expressed as a criminal behavior because of the conflict to accomplish the power and economic advantage non powerful groups target. This study focused on the power conflict in various causes of terror crimes by applying George B. Vold(1958)'s theory which explained power conflict between groups became a factor of crime, and found the aspect by ages of terror crime behavior by North Korean authority and responding plan to future North Korean terror crime. North Korean authority high-ranking officials were the Labor Party focusing on Juche Idea for decades in Kim Il Sung time. Afterwards, high-ranking officials were formed focusing on military authorities following Military First Policy at the beginning of Kim Jung Il authority, rapid power change has been done for recent 10 years. To arrange the aspect by times of terror crime following this power change, alienated party executives following the support of positive military first authority by Kim Jung Il after 1995 could not object to forcible terror crime behavior of military authority, and 1st, 2nd Yeongpyeong maritime war which happened this time was propelled by military first authority to show the power of military authority. After 2006, conservative party union enforced censorship and inspection on the trade business and foreign currency-earning of military authority while executing drastic purge. The shooting on Keumkangsan tourists that happened this time was a forcible terror crime by military authority following the pressure of conservative party. After October, 2008, first military reign union executed the launch of Gwanmyungsung No.2 long-range missile, second nuclear test, Daechung marine war, and Cheonanham attacking terror in order to highlight the importance and role of military authority. After September 2010, new reign union went through severe competition between new military authority and new mainstream and new military authority at this time executed highly professionalized terror crime such as cyber/electronic terror unlike past military authority. After July 2012, ICBM test launch, third nuclear test, cyber terror on Cheongwadae homepage of new mainstream association was the intention of Km Jung Eun to display his ability and check and adjust the power of party/military/cabinet/ public security organ, and he can attempt the unexpected terror crime in the future. North Korean terror crime has continued since 1980s when Kim Jung Il's power succession was carried out, and the power aspect by times has rapidly changed since 1994 when Kim Il Sung died and the terror crime became intense following the power combat between high-ranking officials and power conflict for right robbery. Now South Korea should install the specialized department which synthesizes and analyzes the information on North Korean high-ranking officials and reinforce the comprehensive information-collecting system through the protection and management of North Korean defectors and secret agents in order to determine the cause of North Korean terror crime and respond to it. And South Korea should participate positively in the international collaboration related to North Korean terror and make direct efforts to attract the international agreement to build the international cooperation for the response to North Korean terror crime. Also, we should try more to arrange the realistic countermeasure against North Korean cyber/electronic terror which was more diversified with the expertise terror escaping from existing forcible terror through enactment/revision of law related to cyber terror crime, organizing relevant institute and budget, training professional manpower, and technical development.

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Forecasting the Occurrence of Voice Phishing using the ARIMA Model (ARIMA 모형을 이용한 보이스피싱 발생 추이 예측)

  • Jung-Ho Choo;Yong-Hwi Joo;Jung-Ho Eom
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2022
  • Voice phishing is a cyber crime in which fake financial institutions, the Public Prosecutor's Office, and the National Police Agency are impersonated to find out an individual's Certification number and credit card number or withdraw a deposit. Recently, voice phishing has been carried out in a subtle and secret way. Analyzing the trend of voice phishing that occurred in '18~'21, it was found that there is a seasonality that occurs rapidly at a time when the movement of money is intensifying in the trend of voice phishing, giving ambiguity to time series analysis. In this research, we adjusted seasonality using the X-12 seasonality adjustment methodology for accurate prediction of voice phishing occurrence trends, and predicted the occurrence of voice phishing in 2022 using the ARIMA model.

A Study on Improvement of Direction through Case Studies of 'Correctional Industry Works Exhibition' of the Ministry of Justice (법무부 '교정작품전시회'의 사례 분석을 통한 방향성 제고에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Yeoh-Hang;Kim, Ji-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Furniture Society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.229-240
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    • 2015
  • Most of crime occurrence in Korea is caused by ex-convict. Various correctional training programs support convicts to reform a criminal as a treatment program. This study is about the most crucial 'Correctional Industry Works Exhibition' that is hosted by the Ministry of Justice and supervised by Seoul Correctional Service and other related events. 'Correctional Industry Works Exhibition' divides into the convicts' works in prison, literary works and staffs' literary works. Based on the working experience as a judge for the last six years(2009~2014) and analysis of research cases, the writer grasps the problems that needs to be improved and suggests the strategies. In the future, 'Correctional Industry Works Exhibition' will be a festival for convicts and prison officers that communicates with the public and will vitalize the works in prison that will produce good products. Moreover, it can be expected to support the social reintegration of prisoners and repeated crime after released from prison.

Implementation of Smart Video Surveillance System Based on Safety Map (안전지도와 연계한 지능형 영상보안 시스템 구현)

  • Park, Jang-Sik
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.169-174
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    • 2018
  • There are many CCTV cameras connected to the video surveillance and monitoring center for the safety of citizens, and it is difficult for a few monitoring agents to monitor many channels of videos. In this paper, we propose an intelligent video surveillance system utilizing a safety map to efficiently monitor many channels of CCTV camera videos. The safety map establishes the frequency of crime occurrence as a database, expresses the degree of crime risk and makes it possible for agents of the video surveillance center to pay attention when a woman enters the crime risk area. The proposed gender classification method is processed in the order of pedestrian detection, tracking and classification with deep training. The pedestrian detection and tracking uses Adaboost algorithm and probabilistic data association filter, respectively. In order to classify the gender of the pedestrian, relatively simple AlexNet is applied to determine gender. Experimental results show that the proposed gender classification method is more effective than the conventional algorithm. In addition, the results of implementation of intelligent video security system combined with safety map are introduced.

A Study on The Countermeasure by The Types through Case Analysis of Industrial Secret Leakage Accident (산업기밀 유출사고 사례분석을 통한 유형별 대응방안 연구)

  • Chang, Hangbae
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.15 no.7
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    • pp.39-45
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    • 2015
  • Industrial secrets that companies own recently protected by various act related industrial security such as Trade Secret Act, Act on Prevention of Divulgence and Protection of Industrial Technology, etc. However, despite such protection infringement and leakage accidents of industrial secrets is increasing every year. According to a survey conducted by KAITS(Korean Association for Industrial Technology Security) annual average of estimated damage by industrial secrets leakage is estimated to be "50 trillion won." This is equivalent to the amount of annual revenue of small businesses more than 4,700 units. Following this, industrial secrets leakage causes serious damages to competitiveness of nation and companies and economic. However investment and effort to the industrial secrets leakage crime is lack of level compared to the scale of damage. Actually, most companies except some major companies are lack of response action about industrial secrets leakage because of shortage of separate organization, workforce, budget for industrial secrets leakage security. This paper aims to understand the overall flow of the industrial secrets leakage crime through various taxonomy such as cause of occurrence and leakage pathway and grasp the condition of damage from industrial secrets leakage through analyzation of internal and external industrial secrets leakage crime. This is expected to be the basis for related research.

Actual Conditions of Burglaries and Analysis on Residential Invasion Burglaries in Daegu Area (강도 범죄의 실태 및 대구 지역 침입 강도 범죄 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Kwak, Jyung-Sik
    • Journal of forensic and investigative science
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.5-20
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    • 2007
  • During the period from 2001 to 2005, 29,892 burglaries took place in Korea with the approximate average annual number - 5,978 cases. This study was conducted to analyze the reported burglaries and the result was summarized as follows. There were 8,605 residential invasion burglaries (28.8%) as the most frequent characteristic pattern. The exit was used as the most frequent invasion route for 4,031 invasion burglaries (64.3%), and an unlocked exit door or window was used as the most frequent invasion method for 2,462 invasion burglaries (28.6%). The hours just after midnight (between 00:00 and 04:00) were the most frequent time for invasion burglary to occur. Also, 5,652 burglaries occurred on Wednesday which was twice higher than on Sunday (2,988 burglaries). It was shown that the number of persons injured during burglaries were 260 deaths and 10,610 injuries. The places of the highest occurrence were the street with 10,183 burglaries (34%) and then residential place with 7,527 burglaries (approximately 25%). One-man burglary was the highest complicity: 15,012 offenders (56.1%). The knife was used as the most frequent instrument for 6,498 burglaries (24,3%) what is rare, while no criminal tool or instrument was used for 15,631 burglaries (58.4). During the period from 2001 to 2006, 1,506 burglaries occurred in Daegu and the average annual number was 251 burglaries. Among those,515 residential invasion burglaries (34.2%) took place and the average annual number was approximately 86 cases. The hours just after midnight (between 00:00 and 04:00) were the most frequent time for invasion burglary to occur (194 cases, 37.7%), the place of the highest invasion occurrence was the residential place (259 cases, 50.3%), and the exit was used as the most frequent invasion route (87 cases, 37.7%). An unlocked exit door or window was the most frequent invasion method (65 cases, 25.1%). In addition, pretending to be a delivery man, visitor or following the victim methods were used for 26 burglaries (10%). It is apparent that personal preventive measures against crimes, as well as governmental and social measures, play an important role in preventing burglaries. In particular, based on the analyzed result that an unlocked window or exit door was most frequently used for reported burglaries, it seems that there is a lack of understanding of crime prevention while little effort has been made to prevent crimes. Although everyone knows that locking a door is one of the basic measures to prevent crimes, many people tend to pay little attention to lock a door properly so burglary takes place. This study, therefore, is intended to encourage people to pay more careful attention to crime prevention, in order to help reduce the probability of burglary. With the recent improvement in social understanding of scientific crime investigation, a wide variety of police professions, including crime analysts, crime victim police counselors and coroners, have been prepared to develop the scientific crime investigation and crime analysis. In addition, it is hoped that further this study will contribute to encourage studies on crime prevention to be carried out in the future.

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On-demand Evidence Collection of Host Infringement based on the Analysis of Severity levels (위험도 분석에 기반한 On-demand 방식의 호스트 침해 증거 자료 수집 방안)

  • Choi, Yoon-Ho;Park, Jong-Ho;Kim, Sang-Kon;Seo, Seung-U;Kang, Yu;Choi, Jin-Gi;Moon, Ho-Gun;Lee, Myung-Su
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2006.06a
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    • pp.33-34
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    • 2006
  • Computer Forensics is a research area which finds the malicious users by collecting and analyzing the intrusion or infringement evidence of the computer crime. Many research about Computer Forensics has been done. But those research have focussed on how to collect the evidence after receiving the damage reports from computer users or network administrators. This paper describes about collecting the evidence of good quality at the time of infringement occurrence by the malicious user. By calculating Infringement severity of observable and protective hosts and referring to this value, we collect the evidence at the time of infringement occurrence to minimize the information modification of the evidence. We can reduce also the amount of logs that we use to analyze the infringement and can minimize the loss of the evidence.

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