• Title/Summary/Keyword: credit evaluation model

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Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using Qualitative Information Based on Big Data Analytics (빅데이터 기반의 정성 정보를 활용한 부도 예측 모형 구축)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.33-56
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    • 2016
  • Many researchers have focused on developing bankruptcy prediction models using modeling techniques, such as statistical methods including multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis or artificial intelligence techniques containing artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, and support vector machines (SVM), to secure enhanced performance. Most of the bankruptcy prediction models in academic studies have used financial ratios as main input variables. The bankruptcy of firms is associated with firm's financial states and the external economic situation. However, the inclusion of qualitative information, such as the economic atmosphere, has not been actively discussed despite the fact that exploiting only financial ratios has some drawbacks. Accounting information, such as financial ratios, is based on past data, and it is usually determined one year before bankruptcy. Thus, a time lag exists between the point of closing financial statements and the point of credit evaluation. In addition, financial ratios do not contain environmental factors, such as external economic situations. Therefore, using only financial ratios may be insufficient in constructing a bankruptcy prediction model, because they essentially reflect past corporate internal accounting information while neglecting recent information. Thus, qualitative information must be added to the conventional bankruptcy prediction model to supplement accounting information. Due to the lack of an analytic mechanism for obtaining and processing qualitative information from various information sources, previous studies have only used qualitative information. However, recently, big data analytics, such as text mining techniques, have been drawing much attention in academia and industry, with an increasing amount of unstructured text data available on the web. A few previous studies have sought to adopt big data analytics in business prediction modeling. Nevertheless, the use of qualitative information on the web for business prediction modeling is still deemed to be in the primary stage, restricted to limited applications, such as stock prediction and movie revenue prediction applications. Thus, it is necessary to apply big data analytics techniques, such as text mining, to various business prediction problems, including credit risk evaluation. Analytic methods are required for processing qualitative information represented in unstructured text form due to the complexity of managing and processing unstructured text data. This study proposes a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms using both quantitative information, such as financial ratios, and qualitative information acquired from economic news articles. The performance of the proposed method depends on how well information types are transformed from qualitative into quantitative information that is suitable for incorporating into the bankruptcy prediction model. We employ big data analytics techniques, especially text mining, as a mechanism for processing qualitative information. The sentiment index is provided at the industry level by extracting from a large amount of text data to quantify the external economic atmosphere represented in the media. The proposed method involves keyword-based sentiment analysis using a domain-specific sentiment lexicon to extract sentiment from economic news articles. The generated sentiment lexicon is designed to represent sentiment for the construction business by considering the relationship between the occurring term and the actual situation with respect to the economic condition of the industry rather than the inherent semantics of the term. The experimental results proved that incorporating qualitative information based on big data analytics into the traditional bankruptcy prediction model based on accounting information is effective for enhancing the predictive performance. The sentiment variable extracted from economic news articles had an impact on corporate bankruptcy. In particular, a negative sentiment variable improved the accuracy of corporate bankruptcy prediction because the corporate bankruptcy of construction firms is sensitive to poor economic conditions. The bankruptcy prediction model using qualitative information based on big data analytics contributes to the field, in that it reflects not only relatively recent information but also environmental factors, such as external economic conditions.

A Study on Factors Affecting ESG Management Intentions of Small and Medium Enterprises : Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Attitude and the Moderating Effect of Employees' Innovation Resistance (중소기업 ESG 경영 도입의도에 영향을 미치는 요인 : 태도의 매개효과 및 종업원 혁신저항성의 조절효과)

  • Lee, Yun-hyo;Park, Koung-hi;Chung, Byoung-gyu
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.41-65
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    • 2023
  • This study was conducted to empirically analyse the factors that influence SMEs' intention to adopt ESG. For this purpose, we first derived the variables of usefulness of ESG and ease of adoption. In addition, we adopted CEO's will because of the importance of CEO's role in decision-making in SMEs. In addition, we added customer's request, government support, and credit evaluation reflection as institutional factors for ESG management. To examine the mediating role of attitudes and employees' innovation resistance in these relationships and how they affect ESG adoption, we set up a research model. These factors were used in the empirical analysis with 368 valid responses from the survey. Hierarchical regression analysis method using SPSS 24.0 was used for statistical analysis, and Process Macro 4.0 based on SPSS 24 was used for mediation and moderation effects. The results of the empirical analysis of this study showed that the usefulness of ESG adoption, ease of adoption, CEO's will, customer's request, government support, and credit evaluation reflection all had a positive and significant effect on the intention to adopt ESG management. In particular, among the variables affecting ESG adoption, CEO's will was found to be the most influential. Attitudes were also found to play a mediating role between the influencing factors and intention to adopt ESG management, as well as the mediating effect of employee' innovation resistance. The academic implications of this study include the identification and empirical testing of each of the influencing variables of ESG management adoption in the scarce literature on ESG in SMEs, and the prioritisation of the influence of these factors on adoption intention, which can be used to promote the adoption of ESG management. In terms of practical implications, it is important for SMEs to have a win-win relationship with large corporations, an ecosystem such as government support, in order to improve CEO awareness and motivate the CEO's will, and for smooth introduction of ESG management, it is necessary to find ways to reduce resistance through sufficient communication with organizational members to make them aware of the need.

The Implementation and Evaluation of Learning Experience-Based Professionalism Program in Medical School (의과대학의 학습경험 중심 전문직업성 프로그램 운영 및 평가)

  • Yoo, Hyo Hyun;Kim, Young Jon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.164-172
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    • 2018
  • This study explores how to implement a learning experience-based professionalism program for a medical students and evaluates its program through effectiveness and usability test. This study aims to provide practical implications for experience-based learning in an undergraduate level. Seventy four first-year medical students enrolled in PDS1(Patient-Doctor-Society 1): professionalism, one-week block (30 hours), one-credit program based on a experience-based learning model. All of the students were given six learning themes and learning resources and supporting tools, and conducted stepwise learning activities; preparation, organization, sharing, reflection and evaluation of experiences. The effectiveness of learning was evaluated by comparing the pre and post results of student's self-assessment on 24 questionnaire items about professionalism. After the course, the students and instructors conducted a usability evaluation of the program through questionnaires or group interviews. Learners' self-assessment results of professionalism such as leadership, self-directed learning, professional attitude, and social accountability all showed significant differences between the pre- and post-test. Satisfaction of the program was distributed to 3.58~3.78 according to items. Instructors and learner interviews confirmed practical usability throughout the course design, implementation and students evaluation. The results of the study showed the feasibility of implementing learning experience-based professionalism program in medical school. This study provides practical implications to develope and evaluate the learning experience-based professionalism program in medical education.

Evaluation of Corporate Distress Prediction Power using the Discriminant Analysis: The Case of First-Class Hotels in Seoul (판별분석에 의한 기업부실예측력 평가: 서울지역 특1급 호텔 사례 분석)

  • Kim, Si-Joong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.520-526
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to develop a distress prediction model, in order to evaluate the distress prediction power for first-class hotels and to calculate the average financial ratio in the Seoul area by using the financial ratios of hotels in 2015. The sample data was collected from 19 first-class hotels in Seoul and the financial ratios extracted from 14 of these 19 hotels. The results show firstly that the seven financial ratios, viz. the current ratio, total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, interest coverage ratio to operating income, operating income to sales, net income to stockholders' equity, ratio of cash flows from operating activities to sales and total assets turnover, enable the top-level corporations to be discriminated from the failed corporations and, secondly, by using these seven financial ratios, a discriminant function which classifies the corporations into top-level and failed ones is estimated by linear multiple discriminant analysis. The accuracy of prediction of this discriminant capability turned out to be 87.9%. The accuracy of the estimates obtained by discriminant analysis indicates that the distress prediction model's distress prediction power is 78.95%. According to the analysis results, hotel management groups which administrate low level corporations need to focus on the classification of these seven financial ratios. Furthermore, hotel corporations have very different financial structures and failure prediction indicators from other industries. In accordance with this finding, for the development of credit evaluation systems for such hotel corporations, there is a need for systems to be developed that reflect hotel corporations' financial features.

Usability Evaluation for Simple Payment Service Based on Mobile Application -Focused on Shinhan and Samsung- (모바일 간편결제 애플리케이션 사용성 평가 연구 -신한FAN 앱카드와 삼성 앱카드를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Kyung-Joo;Kim, Seung-In
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.421-426
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    • 2018
  • This study is meant to derive what is needed to enhance the convenience and satisfaction of users of mobile credit card applications. For the first step, the current status of simple payment service using application has been identified and in-depth interview by reorganizing Peter Morvile's Honeycomb model into the five usage principle based on the main function of the application card. As a result, it was found that users prefer personalized services that fulfill the purpose and key functions of the app card and take into account their consumption patterns rather than too many additional functions. Based on this study, it is expected that it would help card companies increase their experience with app card users and strengthen their platforms.

A Study of Gerontological Nursing Curriculum (노인간호학 교과과정에 대한 조사연구)

  • 전시자;공은숙;김귀분;김남초;김주희;김춘길;김희경;노유자;송미순
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.808-817
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    • 2001
  • To survey the present status of the gerontological nursing course at three year diploma programs, baccalaureate degree programs(BSN), and graduate programs in Korea, and to analyze the contents of the syllabus and gerontological nursing textbooks to provide the basic data in developing a standard model for gerontological nursing curriculum. Method: Data was collected from all the nursing programs in Korea from Nov. 2000 to Feb. 2001 by mail and fax. Result: The gerontological nursing courses has been offered 36 diploma program, 40 BSN, and 17 graduate programs. And the credits of the gerontological nursing course offered by the program were as follows : one credit (10 diploma and 8 BSN), two credits (22 diploma and 29 BSN), and three credits (1 BSN). The contents of curri- culum were analyzed by comparing the core curriculum of NGNA. The majority of the schools included Gerontological Nursing in General, Theory of Aging, Aging Processes, Care Plan Options, and Common Health Problems. The subjects which very few school cover are Legal/ Ethical Issues, Evaluation, Regulatory & Reimbursement Issues, Education Issues, Nursing Research in Gerontology, and Environmental Issues of Older Adults. There were some differences in these results among diploma courses, BSNs, and graduate schools. The gerontological nursing textbooks contained similar contents to those of the diploma and the baccalaureate programs.

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Academic Program Operation for the Industry Professional Practice Implementation (장기현장실습(IPP) 제도를 위한 학사운영 방안)

  • Oh, Chang-Heon;Ha, Jun-Hong;Kim, Namho;Cho, Jae-Soo;Om, Kiyong
    • The Journal of Korean Institute for Practical Engineering Education
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.110-115
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    • 2012
  • IPP (Industry Professional Practice) is an educational model that combines academic study and industrial work through university-industry cooperation. Students would decide suitable career based on their IPP experience, that will lead a university graduate to improve their recruitment potential. IPP could also be a key to solve national employment problems as well as a chronic manpower supply and demand mismatch issue between university and industry. This paper discusses about an academic program operation for the IPP implementation, that includes operation plan for semester-based quarter system, a guideline for new curriculum, an academic credit allocation, evaluation guideline, a capstone design class operation, and interim measures.

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Bankruptcy Type Prediction Using A Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks Model (하이브리드 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 부도 유형 예측)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Kim, Hyun-jung;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.79-99
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    • 2015
  • The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance. We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster. The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder's equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy. In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.

Determinants of IPO Failure Risk and Price Response in Kosdaq (코스닥 상장 시 실패위험 결정요인과 주가반응에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sung-Bae;Nam, Sam-Hyun;Yi, Hwa-Deuk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • Recently, failure rates of Kosdaq IPO firms are increasing and their survival rates tend to be very low, and when these firms do fail, often times backed by a number of governmental financial supports, they may inflict severe financial damage to investors, let alone economy as a whole. To ensure investors' confidence in Kosdaq and foster promising and healthy businesses, it is necessary to precisely assess their intrinsic values and survivability. This study investigates what contributed to the failure of IPO firms and analyzed how these elements are factored into corresponding firms' stock returns. Failure risks are assessed at the time of IPO. This paper considers factors reflecting IPO characteristics, a firm's underwriter prestige, auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds. The study further went on to examine how, if at all, these failure risks involved during IPO led to post-IPO stock prices. Sample firms used in this study include 98 Kosdaq firms that have failed and 569 healthy firms that are classified into the same business categories, and Logit models are used in estimate the probability of failure. Empirical results indicate that auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds shown significant relevance to failure risks at the time of IPO. Of other variables, firm's size and ROA, previously deemed significantly related to failure risks, in fact do not show significant relevance to those risks, whereas financial leverage does. This illustrates the efficacy of a model that appropriately reflects the attributes of IPO firms. Also, even though R&D expenditures were believed to be value relevant by previous studies, this study reveals that R&D is not a significant factor related to failure risks. In examing the relation between failure risks and stock prices, this study finds that failure risks are negatively related to 1 or 2 year size-adjusted abnormal returns after IPO. The results of this study may provide useful knowledge for government regulatory officials in contemplating pertinent policy and for credit analysts in their proper evaluation of a firm's credit standing.

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Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values of Financial Ratios (재무비율의 극단치에 대한 통계적 분석)

  • Joo, Jihwan
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.247-268
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    • 2021
  • Investors mainly use PER and PBR among financial ratios for valuation and investment decision-making. I conduct an analysis of two basic financial ratios from a statistical perspective. Financial ratios contain key accounting numbers which reflect firm fundamentals and are useful for valuation or risk analysis such as enterprise credit evaluation and default prediction. The distribution of financial data tends to be extremely heavy-tailed, and PER and PBR show exceedingly high level of kurtosis and their extreme cases often contain significant information on financial risk. In this respect, Extreme Value Theory is required to fit its right tail more precisely. I introduce not only GPD but exGPD. GPD is conventionally preferred model in Extreme Value Theory and exGPD is log-transformed distribution of GPD. exGPD has recently proposed as an alternative of GPD(Lee and Kim, 2019). First, I conduct a simulation for comparing performances of the two distributions using the goodness of fit measures and the estimation of 90-99% percentiles. I also conduct an empirical analysis of Information Technology firms in Korea. Finally, exGPD shows better performance especially for PBR, suggesting that exGPD could be an alternative for GPD for the analysis of financial ratios.