• 제목/요약/키워드: credit evaluation model

검색결과 62건 처리시간 0.025초

인공신경망을 이용한 소비자 선택 예측에 관한 연구 (A study on forecasting of consumers' choice using artificial neural network)

  • 송수섭;이의훈
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.55-70
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    • 2001
  • Artificial neural network(ANN) models have been widely used for the classification problems in business such as bankruptcy prediction, credit evaluation, etc. Although the application of ANN to classification of consumers' choice behavior is a promising research area, there have been only a few researches. In general, most of the researches have reported that the classification performance of the ANN models were better than conventional statistical model Because the survey data on consumer behavior may include much noise and missing data, ANN model will be more robust than conventional statistical models welch need various assumptions. The purpose of this paper is to study the potential of the ANN model for forecasting consumers' choice behavior based on survey data. The data was collected by questionnaires to the shoppers of department stores and discount stores. Then the correct classification rates of the ANN models for the training and test sample with that of multiple discriminant analysis(MDA) and logistic regression(Logit) model. The performance of the ANN models were betted than the performance of the MDA and Logit model with respect to correct classification rate. By using input variables identified as significant in the stepwise MDA, the performance of the ANN models were improved.

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금융시장에서 영업사원의 지각된 평가 공정성과 직무성과 간의 구조적 관계 (Structural Relationship between Salesperson's Perceived Evaluation Fairness and Job Performance in the Financial Market)

  • 이준섭;김지영;이한근
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제14권12호
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    • pp.141-151
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - Salesperson perceptions of the fairness and accuracy of a performance evaluation system were examined by managerial and professional employees of large organization. The performance evaluation process is central to many personal decisions such as attitude for job and sales performance. This study investigates the relationship between perceived evaluation fairness, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and sales performance. The main purpose of this study is to develop and empirically test a comprehensive model of salespersons' perceived evaluation fairness on sales performance. For this purpose, we identified the structural relationship between perceived evaluation fairness, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and sales performance. Also we investigate the mediating effects on job satisfaction and organizational commitment between perceived evaluation fairness and sales performance. Research design, data, and methodology - To empirically test these relationships, data were collected by in-depth interviews from sales managers and questionnaire surveys from 300 salespersons who work for sales area (credit card company, insurance company). Demographically, the overall sample was 91.6% female, 77.9% 30s and 40s, and 34% college educated, with an average tenure with their present organizations of 4 years. The questionnaire was composed of total 20 items dealing with frequency, quality, and consequences of perceived evaluation fairness, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and sales performance. To test the research hypotheses, collected data analyzed by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structure equation model (SEM). Results - Through extensive and rigorous literature review process of related literature(Perceived evaluation fairness, Job satisfaction, Organizational commitment, Sales performance), research model and research hypothesis was set up. This study obtains the following research results. First, perceived evaluation fairness has a positive effect on job satisfaction, whereas the effects of perceived evaluation fairness on organizational commitment and sales performance did not show statistically significant result. Second, job satisfaction and organizational commitment have complete mediating roles to the relationship between perceived evaluation fairness and organizational commitment, and relationship between perceived evaluation fairness and sales performance. Conclusions - Based on the results, salespersons' perceived evaluation fairness is one of the key independent variable for making high job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and sales performance. Finally the theoretical, managerial implication and research limitations are mentioned in the discussion.

가혹환경 하에서 사용되는 시스템의 외부환경보수에 대한 고장률 모형 (Failure Rate Model of External Environment Maintenance for a System under Severe Environment)

  • 박종훈;신윤제;이상천;이창훈
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제36권1호
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2010
  • The failure rate model of External Environment Maintenance(EEM) for a system under severe environment is investigated. EEM, which is recently introduced concept, is a maintenance activity controlling external environment factors that potentially cause system failure such as cleaning equipment, controlling temperature (humidity) and removing dust inside of electronic appliances. EEM can not have any influence on the inherent failure rate of a system but reduce the severity of the external environment causing failure since it deals with only external environment factors. Therefore, we propose two failure rate models to express the improvement effect of EEM: The intensity reduction model and age reduction model. The intensity and age reduction models of EEM are developed assuming the quality of improvement effect is proportioned to an extra intensity or age respectively. The validation of proposed failure rate models is performed in order of data generation, parameter estimation and test for goodness-of-fit.

기업의 특허 역량이 성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증 분석 : 우수 벤처기업을 중심으로 (An Empirical Analysis about the Effect on Performance of Firm's Patent Competency : Focusing on the High Performance Venture Firms in Korea)

  • 안연식
    • 지식경영연구
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.83-96
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    • 2010
  • In this study, the effect of firm's patent competency on the their management performance was analysed. The number of patents granted to Korean firms, patent grade score as of the firm's patent competence were considered in the perspectives of patent volume and patent value respectively. Specially the analysis were implemented focusing on the high performance venture ranked 200th in Korea. The patent source data were from the Korean Intellectual Property Office, Korean Credit Evaluation Information Company, and the Patent Evaluation System of KIPO and KIPA. And the year sales and net profit volume as of the firm's management performance data from the KIS. Management performance data are consisted of the mean sales, net profit and ROI during the 4 years from FY2005 to FY2008. Major results are as follows. The regression model were proved significantly that the year sales volume and net profit are effected by the number of patents and patent grade score. But the model including the ROI were shown not significantly. So it can be concluded that patent volume and patent value are the important factors on firm's financial performance as of the year sales volume and net profit. Also the regression model including the control variables, firm's number of employee and business year, the number of patents and patent grade score are the significant factors on firms performance. And regression coefficients of patent value model were higher than these of patent volume model. So it can be recognized that patent value of firms' patent competency are more important factor than the patent volume.

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Statistical Fingerprint Recognition Matching Method with an Optimal Threshold and Confidence Interval

  • Hong, C.S.;Kim, C.H.
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제25권6호
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    • pp.1027-1036
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    • 2012
  • Among various biometrics recognition systems, statistical fingerprint recognition matching methods are considered using minutiae on fingerprints. We define similarity distance measures based on the coordinate and angle of the minutiae, and suggest a fingerprint recognition model following statistical distributions. We could obtain confidence intervals of similarity distance for the same and different persons, and optimal thresholds to minimize two kinds of error rates for distance distributions. It is found that the two confidence intervals of the same and different persons are not overlapped and that the optimal threshold locates between two confidence intervals. Hence an alternative statistical matching method can be suggested by using nonoverlapped confidence intervals and optimal thresholds obtained from the distributions of similarity distances.

일반화가속모형을 이용한 기술신용평가 주요 지표 분석 (Analysis of Important Indicators of TCB Using GBM)

  • 전우정;서영욱
    • 한국전자거래학회지
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.159-173
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    • 2017
  • 기술력 기반의 중소벤처기업에 대한 기술금융 지원을 위해 정부는 2014년 7월부터 기술보증기금 및 일정 자격을 갖춘 민간 기술신용평가사에게 일종의 기술력 등급평가인 기술신용평가를 실시하여 은행의 여신에 활용토록 하였다. 본 논문에서는 최근까지의 기술신용평가 현황 및 한국신용정보원에서 축적하고 있는 기술평가 관련 가용 지표들에 대한 선행 연구를 개략적으로 살펴본 후 기술평가등급점수에 유의적인 영향을 미치는 지표(indicator)를 통상적인 다중회귀기법으로 탐색할 것이다. 본 논문의 관심 대상인 지표 별 등급 영향도와 모형의 적합도는 대표적인 기계학습 분류기(classifier)인 일반화가속모형(Generalized Boosting Model; GBM)을 적용하여 분석하였는 바, 주요 지표를 독립변수(feature)로 투입하여 지표의 상대적 중요성 및 분류 정확도를 산출하였다. 분석결과 회귀모형과 기계학습 모형 간 지표별 상대적인 중요도는 크게 차이나지 않는 것으로 분석되었으나, GBM 모형의 경우 회귀모형에 비해서 이노비즈인증, 연구소 및 연구개발전담부서 보유, 특허등록건수, 벤처확인 지표 등 기술개발역량이 상대적으로 기술등급에 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다.

A study on the impact of homestay sharing platform on guests' online comment willingness

  • Zou, Ji-Kai;Liang, Teng-Yue;Dong, Cui
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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    • 제25권12호
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    • pp.321-331
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    • 2020
  • 본 논문의 연구 목적은 공유숙박 비즈니스 바탕으로 숙박 플랫폼이 세입자의 온라인 리뷰 의향에 미치는 영향을 연구하는 것이다. 기존 숙박예약 모델보다 공유숙박 중 숙박 플랫품, 집주인, 세입자 간을 공유하는 독립성이 더 명확하다. 공유숙박 플랫폼은 집주인과 세입자간의 오프라인 숙박서비스를 완료하고 거래를 실현할 수 있도록 다양한 지원 서비스를 제공하는 것은 물론, 공유숙박 플랫폼은 세입자가 집주인에게 객관적이고 적극적으로 평가하도록 장려하는 특정 조치를 파악해야 한다. 공유숙박에 대한 신용 생태를 더 잘 확립할 수 있도록 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 공유숙박 플랫폼을 사용해본적 있는 소비자들을 대상으로, 2주간의 설문 조사를 하고 SPSS24.0 프로그램을 사용하여 데이터가 분석되었다. 이 논문의 연구결과는: (1) 플랫폼 리뷰 기능의 사용 용이성, 세입자의 만족도 및 플랫폼 리뷰 인센티브가 세입자의 온라인 리뷰 의향에 긍정적인 영향을 미친다. (2) 플랫폼의 신용 메커니즘은 세입자의 만족도가 온라인 리뷰 의향에 영향을 미치는 과정에서 긍정적인 영향을 미친다.

다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형 (The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM)

  • 박지영;홍태호
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

기계학습을 이용한 수출신용보증 사고예측 (The Prediction of Export Credit Guarantee Accident using Machine Learning)

  • 조재영;주지환;한인구
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 2021
  • 2020년 8월 정부는 한국판 뉴딜을 뒷받침하기 위한 공공기관의 역할 강화방안으로서 각 공공기관별 역량을 바탕으로 5대 분야에 걸쳐 총 20가지 과제를 선정하였다. 빅데이터(Big Data), 인공지능 등을 활용하여 대국민 서비스를 제고하고 공공기관이 보유한 양질의 데이터를 개방하는 등의 다양한 정책을 통해 한국판 뉴딜(New Deal)의 성과를 조기에 창출하고 이를 극대화하기 위한 다양한 노력을 기울이고 있다. 그중에서 한국무역보험공사(KSURE)는 정책금융 공공기관으로 국내 수출기업들을 지원하기 위해 여러 제도를 운영하고 있는데 아직까지는 본 기관이 가지고 있는 빅데이터를 적극적으로 활용하지 못하고 있는 실정이다. 본 연구는 한국무역보험공사의 수출신용보증 사고 발생을 사전에 예측하고자 공사가 보유한 내부 데이터에 기계학습 모형을 적용하였고 해당 모형 간에 예측성과를 비교하였다. 예측 모형으로는 로지스틱(Logit) 회귀모형, 랜덤 포레스트(Random Forest), XGBoost, LightGBM, 심층신경망을 사용하였고, 평가 기준으로는 전체 표본의 예측 정확도 이외에도 표본별 사고 확률을 구간으로 나누어 높은 확률로 예측된 표본과 낮은 확률로 예측된 경우의 정확도를 서로 비교하였다. 각 모형별 전체 표본의 예측 정확도는 70% 내외로 나타났고 개별 표본을 사고 확률 구간별로 세부 분석한 결과 양 극단의 확률구간(0~20%, 80~100%)에서 90~100%의 예측 정확도를 보여 모형의 현실적 활용 가능성을 보여주었다. 제2종 오류의 중요성 및 전체적 예측 정확도를 종합적으로 고려할 경우, XGBoost와 심층신경망이 가장 우수한 모형으로 평가되었다. 랜덤포레스트와 LightGBM은 그 다음으로 우수하며, 로지스틱 회귀모형은 가장 낮은 성과를 보였다. 본 연구는 한국무역보험공사의 빅데이터를 기계학습모형으로 분석해 업무의 효율성을 높이는 사례로서 향후 기계학습 등을 활용하여 실무 현장에서 빅데이터 분석 및 활용이 활발해지기를 기대한다.

신용평가에서 로지스틱 회귀를 이용한 미결정자 추론 (Undecided inference using logistic regression for credit evaluation)

  • 홍종선;정민섭
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구는 신용평가 과정에서 발생하는 미결정자를 결측자료 문제로 간주하여 MAR와 MNAR 가정 하에서 추론한다. MAR 가정에서 미결정자 추론은 결정자들에 대한 로지스틱 회귀모형의 회귀 계수벡터를 이용하여 미결정자의 부도 확률을 구한 후 결정자의 부도확률과 비교하여 미결정자의 미래 상태를 판단한다. 그리고 MNAR 가정에서의 미결정자 추론은 특성변수가 추가한 로지스틱 모형으로부터 미결정자의 부도확률을 구하고 미결정자를 예측하는 방법을 제안하였다. 두 종류의 실제 자료에 대하여 모의실험을 한 결과, MAR 가정에서 미결정자의 비율이 증가하더라도 원자료의 오분류율과 추론한 결과 차이가 없으며, MNAR 가정에서는 추가적인 변수를 고려하여 미결정자를 추정하였기 때문에 미결정자의 오분류율이 MAR 가정에서의 오분류율보다 감소하고 나아가 전체에서 미결정자가 차지하는 비율이 증가함에 따라 전체의 오분류율이 더욱 감소함을 발견하였다.