• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1017-1028
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• 2011

When it is not easy to decide the credit scoring for some loan applicants, credit evaluation is postponded and reserve to ask a specialist for further evaluation of undecided applicants. This undecided inference is one of problems that happen to most statistical models including the biostatistics and sportal statistics as well as credit evaluation area. In this work, the undecided inference is regarded as a missing data mechanism under the assumption of MNAR, and use the bivariate probit model which is one of sample selection models. Two undecided inference methods are proposed: one is to make use of characteristic variables to represent the state for decided applicants, and the other is that more accurate and additional informations are collected and apply these new variables. With an illustrated example, misclassification error rates for undecided and overall applicants are obtainded and compared according to various characteristic variables, undecided intervals, and thresholds. It is found that misclassification error rates could be reduced when the undecided interval is increased and more accurate information is put to model, since more accurate situation of decided applications are reflected in the bivariate probit model.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.30-45
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• 2024

This study introduces an effective method for predicting individual local tax delinquencies using prevalent machine learning and deep learning algorithms. The evaluation of credit risk holds great significance in the financial realm, impacting both companies and individuals. While credit risk prediction has been explored using statistical and machine learning techniques, their application to tax arrears prediction remains underexplored. We forecast individual local tax defaults in Republic of Korea using machine and deep learning algorithms, including convolutional neural networks (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq). Our model incorporates diverse credit and public information like loan history, delinquency records, credit card usage, and public taxation data, offering richer insights than prior studies. The results highlight the superior predictive accuracy of the CNN model. Anticipating local tax arrears more effectively could lead to efficient allocation of administrative resources. By leveraging advanced machine learning, this research offers a promising avenue for refining tax collection strategies and resource management.

• IE interfaces
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.448-457
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• 2007

The small & micro business has the characteristics of both consumer credit risk and business credit risk. In predicting the bankruptcy for small-micro businesses, the problem is that in most cases, the financial data for evaluating business credit risks of small & micro businesses are not available. To alleviate such problem, we propose a bankruptcy prediction mechanism using the credit card sales information available, because most small businesses are member store of some credit card issuers, which is the main purpose of this study. In order to perform this study, we derive some variables and analyze the relationship between good and bad signs. We employ the new statistical learning technique, support vector machines (SVM) as a classifier. We use grid search technique to find out better parameter for SVM. The experimental result shows that credit card sales information could be a good substitute for the financial data for evaluating business credit risk in predicting the bankruptcy for small-micro businesses. In addition, we also find out that SVM performs best, when compared with other classifiers such as neural networks, CART, C5.0 multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), and logistic regression.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.407-419
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• 2006

In this paper, we analyze household overdue loans in Korea which has been causing serious social and economical problems. We consider customers of Bank A in Korea and focus on overdue cash services which have been snowballing in the past few years. From analysis of overdue loans, one can predict possible delays for current customers as well as build a credit evaluation and risk management system for future customers. As a statistical analytical tool, we propose a two-stage Generalized Linear regression Model (GLM) which assumes a logistic model for presence/non-presence of overdue and a gamma model for the amount of overdue in the case of overdue. We perform goodness of fit test for the two-stage model and select significant explanatory variables in each stage of the model. It turns out that age, the amount of credit loans from other financial companies, the amount of cash service from other companies, debit balance, the average amount of cash service, and net profit are important explanatory variables relevant to overdue credit card cash service in Korea.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.1-15
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• 2017

In 2014, the Financial Services Commission designated the Tech Credit Bureaus(TCB) to issue technical credit evaluation reports. The Five credit rating agencies, KEB Hana Bank and others have issued the technical credit reports since the summer in 2014. Meanwhile, the technology evaluation model of KEB Hana Bank consists of 25 detailed evaluation items. These item classes are weighted and the technology rating is systematically. The technology rating is combined with the credit rating to calculate the technology-credit rating. In this paper, we analyzed the 406 evaluation results issued by KEB Hana Bank. Based on the number of years of work experience, company managerial years, technical personnel score, the possession of R&D department, the amount of R&D investment, the number of certifications, and the number of patents, the Correlation between the above items and the technical grade was analyzed. It was found that quantitative indicators such as the presence of R&D department, patent numbers, and R&D investment expenses had a significant effect on the company's technology grade, and in particular, the presence of R&D department was shown a high correlation with the technology rating.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.1065-1075
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• 2008

For the model validation of credit rating models, Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) statistic has been widely used as a testing method of discriminatory power from the probabilities of default for default and non-default. For the credit rating works, K-S statistics are to test two identical distribution functions which are partitioned from a distribution. In this paper under the assumption that the distribution is known, modified K-S statistic which is formulated by using known distributions is proposed and compared K-S statistic.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.12D no.2 s.98
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• pp.211-218
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• 2005

This study presents an integrated data mining model for the credit evaluation of the customers of a capital company. Based on customer information and financing processes in capital market, we derived individual models from multi-layered perceptrons(MLP), multivariate discrimination analysis(MDA), and decision tree. Further, the results from the existing models were compared with the results from the integrated model using genetic algorithm. The integrated model presented by this study turned out to be superior to the existing models. This study contributes not only to verifying the existing individual models but also to overcoming the limitations of the existing approaches.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.237-248
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• 2009

The probability of default on the credit evaluation study is represented as a linear combination of two distributions of default and non-default, and the distribution of the probability of default are generally known in most cases. Except the well-known Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic for testing the identity of two distribution, Kuiper, Cramer-Von Mises, Anderson-Darling, and Watson test statistics are introduced in this work. Under the assumption that the population distribution is known, modified Cramer-Von Mises, Anderson-Darling, and Watson statistics are proposed. Based on score data generated from various probability density functions of the probability of default, the modified test statistics are discussed and compared.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.825-836
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• 2003

Based on customer information and financing processes in capital market, we derived individual models by applying multi-layered perceptrons, MDA, and decision tree. Further, the results from the existing single models were compared with the results from the integrated model that was developed using genetic algorithm. This study contributes not only to verifying the existing individual models and but also to overcoming the limitations of the existing approaches. We have depended upon the approaches that compare individual models and search for the best-fit model. However, this study presents a methodology to build an integrated data mining model using genetic algorithm.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.65 no.6
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• pp.923-933
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• 2016

This paper proposes a new method for evaluating Effective Load Carrying Capability(ELCC) and capacity credit(C.C.) of power system including Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) combined with Battery Energy Storage System(BESS). WTG can only generate electricity power when the fuel(wind) is available. Because of fluctuation of wind speed, WTG generates intermittent power. In view point of reliability of power system, intermittent power of WTG is similar with probabilistic characteristics based on power on-off due to mechanical availability of conventional generator. Therefore, high penetration of WTG will occur difficulties in power operation. The high penetration of numerous and large capacity WTG can make risk to power system adequacy, quality and stability. Therefore, the penetration of WTG is limited in the world. In recent, it is expected that BESS installed at wind farms may smooth the wind power fluctuation. This study develops a new method to assess how much is penetration of WTG able to extended when Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) is combined with Battery Energy Storage System(BESS). In this paper, the assessment equation of capacity credit of WTG combined with BESS is formulated newly. The simulation program, is called GNRL_ESS, is developed in this study. This paper demonstrates a various case studies of ELCC and capacity credit(C.C.) of power system containing WTG combined with BESS using model system as similar as Jeju island power system. The case studies demonstrate that not only reasonable BESS capacity for a WTG but also permissible penetration percent of WTG combined with BESS and reasonable WTG capacity for a BESS can be decided.