• Title/Summary/Keyword: count time series

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CLINICAL EXPERIENCES OF VASOVASOSTOMIES (정관(精管) 정관(精管) 문합술(吻合術)의 경험(經驗))

  • Lee, Hee-Yong
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.19-38
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    • 1975
  • A total of 185 vasovasostomies were carried out for 11 years. Various factors which are of importance in fluencing the successful vasovasostomies are analysed and presented as follows: In recent years, demand of reanastomosis of the vas deferens increased considerably. An average age of the subjects is 39, and that of their wives, 33 in this series. An average interval between vasectomy and vasovasostomy is 4 years. An average number of living chidren is 2.6 at the time of vasectomy. and 2.1 at the time of time of vasovasostomy. Merchant and public official are the most commonly encounterd occupation in the present series. Coital frequencies are 2.2/week after vasovasostomy. The most common reasons for requesting the vasovasostomy are remarriage and deaths of children, especially son. Success rate is considerably higher among younger group than that of the older. Success rate is somewhat higher among groups of shorter interval between the operations (vasectomy and vasovasostomy) than that of longer interval group. Success rate is higher among bilateral vasovasostomy group than that of any others. Success rate is higher in solid splint group and no splint group than hollow splint group. The closed dressing technique of the end of splint on the scrotum is found to be reasonably effective in preventing infection. Ordinary end-to-end anastomosis and folded side-to-side anastomosis techniques are proved to be the most ideal form of modified operation for the successful vasovasostomies. The most common causes of failure are infection, injuries of blood supply, avascular necrosis due to extensive mobilization, inadequate approximation of both vasal end, hematoma, changes of epididymal environment, and early ambulation in this series. Overall success rate of the author's series is found the 81 per cent, and impregnation rate is 35 per cent. Overall results reported by other workers are that success rate regarding appearance of sperm in the semen after operation is 64 per cent, and that of impregnation after vasovasostomy is 33 per cent. The results of semen assessment performed on same cases prior to vasectomy and following vasovasostomy showed that post-vasovasostomy sperm count scarcely reached three-quaters of pre-vasectomy count.

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Modeling and Analysis of Wireless Lan Traffic (무선 랜 트래픽의 분석과 모델링)

  • Yamkhin, Dashdorj;Lee, Seong-Jin;Won, You-Jip
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.33 no.8B
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    • pp.667-680
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    • 2008
  • In this work, we present the results of our empirical study on 802.11 wireless LAN network traffic. We collect the packet trace from existing campus wireless LAN infra-structure. We analyzed four different data sets: aggregate traffic, upstream traffic, downstream traffic, tcp only packet trace from aggregate traffic. We analyze the time series aspect of underlying traffic (byte count process and packet count process), marginal distribution of time series, and packet size distribution. We found that in all four data sets there exist long-range dependent property in byte count and packet count process. Inter-arrival distribution is well fitted with Pareto distribution. Upstream traffic, i.e. from the user to Internet, exhibits significant difference in its packet size distribution from the rests. Average packet size of upstream traffic is 151.7 byte while average packet size of the rest of the data sets are all greater than 260 bytes. Packets with full data payloads constitutes 3% and 10% in upstream traffic and the downstream traffic, respectively. Despite the significant difference in packet size distribution, all four data sets have similar Hurst values. The Hurst alone does not properly explain the stochastic characteristics of the underlying traffic. We model the underlying traffic using fractional-ARIMA (FARIMA) and fractional Gaussian Noise (FGN). While the fractional Gaussian Noise based method is computationally more efficient, FARIMA exhibits superior performance in accurately modeling the underlying traffic.

Estimating Heterogeneous Customer Arrivals to a Large Retail store : A Bayesian Poisson model perspective (대형할인매점의 요일별 고객 방문 수 분석 및 예측 : 베이지언 포아송 모델 응용을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Bumsoo;Lee, Joonkyum
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2015
  • This paper considers a Bayesian Poisson model for multivariate count data using multiplicative rates. More specifically we compose the parameter for overall arrival rates by the product of two parameters, a common effect and an individual effect. The common effect is composed of autoregressive evolution of the parameter, which allows for analysis on seasonal effects on all multivariate time series. In addition, analysis on individual effects allows the researcher to differentiate the time series by whatevercharacterization of their choice. This type of model allows the researcher to specifically analyze two different forms of effects separately and produce a more robust result. We illustrate a simple MCMC generation combined with a Gibbs sampler step in estimating the posterior joint distribution of all parameters in the model. On the whole, the model presented in this study is an intuitive model which may handle complicated problems, and we highlight the properties and possible applications of the model with an example, analyzing real time series data involving customer arrivals to a large retail store.

Forecasting evaluation via parametric bootstrap for threshold-INARCH models

  • Kim, Deok Ryun;Hwang, Sun Young
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.177-187
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    • 2020
  • This article is concerned with the issue of forecasting and evaluation of threshold-asymmetric volatility models for time series of count data. In particular, threshold integer-valued models with conditional Poisson and conditional negative binomial distributions are highlighted. Based on the parametric bootstrap method, some evaluation measures are discussed in terms of one-step ahead forecasting. A parametric bootstrap procedure is explained from which directional measure, magnitude measure and expected cost of misclassification are discussed to evaluate competing models. The cholera data in Bangladesh from 1988 to 2016 is analyzed as a real application.

Effects of Ginseng Feeding on the Recovery of Posthemorrhagic Anemia and Erythrokinetics in Rabbits (인삼이 사혈성빈혈 회복 및 Erythrokinetics에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Yong-Duck;Lee, In-Sook;Kim, Myung-Sun
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 1981
  • For centuries, ginseng has been used for the therapeutic purpose in oriental herb medicine. Several studies have been conducted in the past to evaluate the effect of ginseng on erythropoiesis. However the results were controversial. We therefore attempted in the present studies to evaluate the effect of ginseng on the erythropoietic activity. In one series of experiments, the recovery pattern of peripheral blood(red cell count, hemoglobin content, hematocrit and reticulocyte count) was studied in posthemorrhagic anemic rabbits. After animals were maintained with normal(control group) or 1 gm% ginseng (experimental group) diet for 2 weeks, hemorrhagic anemia was induced by withdrawing blood equivalent to 25% of the total blood volume and then changes in peripheral blood were followed for following 30 days. In other series of experiments, we studied effect of ginseng on erythrokinetics using $^{59}Fe$. $^{59}Fe(10{\sim}40\;{\mu}Ci/animal)$ was injected intravenously after animals were fed with normal (control group) or 1 gm% ginseng(experimental group) diet for 2 weeks. And radioactivities in the blood compartments were measured at appropriate intervals for 15 days. Front these various erythrokinetic parameters were estimated. Results are summarized as follows: 1) Reticulocyte count was higher in the experimental group than in the control group after 2 weeks of administration of experimental diet. During the posthemorrhagic period, the reticulocyte count increased in both the control and experimental groups, but the increase appeared much earlier in the experimental group. 2) The posthemorrhagic recoveries of hematocrit, hemoglobin content and red cell count appeared to be faster in the experimental group as compaired with the control group. 3) The half life$(T_{1/2})$ of $^{59}Fe$ in the plasma was significantly(P<0.05) shorter in the experimental group(82.6 min, N=8) than in the control group(121 min, N=6). Plasma iron turnover (PIT) of the experimental group (1.78 mg/dl/24 hr.) was approximately 4 times greater than that of the control group(0.45 mg/dl/24 hr.). 4) The maximum red cell utilization(RC-U) was 82.1% in the experimental group ana 74.5% in the control group. Red cell iron turnover(RIT) of the experimental group(1.62 mg/dl/24 hr.) was slightly higher than that of the control group(0.35 mg/dl/24 hr). 5) Erythron turnover was significantly(p<0.05) greater in the experimental group(1.27 mg/dl/24 hr.) than in the control group(0.24 mg/dl/24 hr.). Marrow transit time of the experimental group(2.05 days) tended to he faster than that of the control group(2.84 days). These results suggest that the gingseng improves the recovery of posthemorrhagic anemia and stimulates the erythropoiesis in rabbits.

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A Time-Series Study of Ambient Air Pollution in Relation to Daily Mortality Count in Yeosu (여수시의 대기오염과 일별 사망의 상관성에 관한 연구 - 미세먼지와 이산화황을 대상으로 -)

  • Park, Hee-Jin;Woo, Kyung-Sook;Chung, Eun-Kyung;Kang, Tack-Shin;Kim, Geun-Bae;Yu, Seung-Do;Son, Bu-Soon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.66-77
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    • 2015
  • The association between daily total/cardiovascular mortality and air pollution in Yeosu was investigated over 11-year period (January 2001 to December 2011). The purpose of this study was to evaluate th relative importance of the major air pollutants [particulate matter ($PM_{10}$), sulfur dioxide ($SO_2$)] as predictors of daily total/cardiovascular mortality. People aged 65 and older showed total mortality increase by 5.0% with $SO_2$ concentration increase by 11.67ppb(IQR) was found to raise mortality caused by circulatory diseases by 8.6%, exhibiting a statistically significant result.

Crime hotspot prediction based on dynamic spatial analysis

  • Hajela, Gaurav;Chawla, Meenu;Rasool, Akhtar
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.1058-1080
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    • 2021
  • Crime is not a completely random event but rather shows a pattern in space and time. Capturing the dynamic nature of crime patterns is a challenging task. Crime prediction models that rely only on neighborhood influence and demographic features might not be able to capture the dynamics of crime patterns, as demographic data collection does not occur frequently and is static. This work proposes a novel approach for crime count and hotspot prediction to capture the dynamic nature of crime patterns using taxi data along with historical crime and demographic data. The proposed approach predicts crime events in spatial units and classifies each of them into a hotspot category based on the number of crime events. Four models are proposed, which consider different covariates to select a set of independent variables. The experimental results show that the proposed combined subset model (CSM), in which static and dynamic aspects of crime are combined by employing the taxi dataset, is more accurate than the other models presented in this study.

A preliminary study on real-time Rn/Tn discriminative detection using air-flow delay in two ion chambers in series

  • Sopan Das ;Junhyeok Kim ;Jaehyun Park ;Hojong Chang;Gyuseong Cho
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.4644-4651
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    • 2022
  • Due to its short half-life, thoron gas has been assumed to have negligible health hazards on humans compared to radon. But, one of the decay products with a long half-life can make it to be transported to a long distance and to cause a severe internal dose through respiration. Since most commercial radon detectors can not discriminate thoron signals from radon signals, it is very common to overestimate radon doses which in turn result in biased estimation of lung cancer risk in epidemiological studies. Though some methods had been suggested to measure thoron and radon separately, they could not be used for real-time measurement because of CR-39 or LR-115. In this study, an effective method was suggested to measure radon and thoron separately from the free air. It was observed that the activity of thoron decreases exponentially due to delay time caused by a long pipe between two chambers. Therefore from two ion chambers apart in time, it was demonstrated that thoron and radon could be measured separately and simultaneously. We also developed a collimated alpha source and with this source and an SBD, we could convert the ion chamber reading to count rate in cps.

A Permanent GPS Ground Network for Atmospheric Research on Taiwan

  • Liou, Yuei-An;Wang, Chuan-Sheng
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.1024-1026
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of establishing GPS networks of continuously operating reference stations (CORS) is aimed to assist land surveying or crustal deformation in the early stage. However, with a fast evolving and improving path the GPS technique has been extended to accurately measure atmospheric precip itable water vapor as a core objective of many projects developed in many countries and regions such as the SuomiNet (U.S., UNAVCO), COST716 (European, COST), GEONET (Japan, GSI), ...etc. In this paper, we present the current progress of the being-set-up GPS network in Taiwan whose atmospheric profile observations mainly count on the traditional radiosonde soundings as typically seen in any other part of the world. The GPS data collected from the Taiwan dense GPS network primarily supported by Central Weather Bureau are processed using the Bernese software version 4.2. Precipitable water vapor is then derived with the auxiliary surface meteorological measurements. Time series of precipitable water are examined and analyzed. A focus on the extreme weather cases is shown as an example.

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Initial Small Data Reveal Rumor Traits via Recurrent Neural Networks (초기 소량 데이터와 RNN을 활용한 루머 전파 추적 기법)

  • Kwon, Sejeong;Cha, Meeyoung
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.44 no.7
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    • pp.680-685
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    • 2017
  • The emergence of online media and their data has enabled data-driven methods to solve challenging and complex tasks such as rumor classification problems. Recently, deep learning based models have been shown as one of the fastest and the most accurate algorithms to solve such problems. These new models, however, either rely on complete data or several days-worth of data, limiting their applicability in real time. In this study, we go beyond this limit and test the possibility of super early rumor detection via recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Our model takes in social media streams as time series input, along with basic meta-information about the rumongers including the follower count and the psycholinguistic traits of rumor content itself. Based on analyzing millions of social media posts on 498 real rumors and 494 non-rumor events, our RNN-based model detected rumors with only 30 initial posts (i.e., within a few hours of rumor circulation) with remarkable F1 score of 0.74. This finding widens the scope of new possibilities for building a fast and efficient rumor detection system.