• Title/Summary/Keyword: cost prediction

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R&D Activities, Imperfect Competition and Economic Growth (R&D 및 불완전경쟁과 경제성장)

  • Kim, Byung-Woo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.47-72
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    • 2007
  • Ideas do not become exhausted, and there are no diminishing returns in the creation of knowledge. Nonetheless, growth ultimately ceases in this simplest model of endogeneous innovation. The reasons are similar to those that are discussed in the context of the neoclassical model of capital accumulation. Even if the resource cost of creating new goods does not rise, the economic return to invention may decline as the number of available products increases. When the rate of return to R&D falls to the level of the discount rate, private agents cease to be willing to defer consumption in order to invest in product development. But, if we treat knowledge capital as a public capital considering of its non-appropriable benefits, economic growth can be sustained in the economy. Romer(1986) has pointed out that growth might be sustainable if the accumulation of knowledge is not subject to long-run diminishing returns. Actually Romer assumed diminishing returns in the production of private knowledge from available resources, but increasing returns in the production of output from labor and total (public and private) knowledge. His condition for the sustainability of long-run growth amounts to an assumption that the diminishing returns in the former activity do not outweigh the increasing returns in the latter. The Johansen(1988) cointegration test method is used for finding long-run equilibrium relationship between R&D input and the product innovation. Test results indicate the existence of cointegrating equation between each pair of regression variables including dependent variable in the knowledge production function. And, the signs of cointegrating vectors are well accord to the prediction of sustainable growth. In the empirical analysis, from all cases of the form for the knowledge production function, we could not reject the null hypothesis that R&D spillover effect is significant($H_{0}:\;{\gamma}=1$). In summary, we showed that considering goodness of fit of regression model, we can see that the empirical evidence is strongly in favor of the character of knowledge as the public knowledge capital. So, we can expect that by product innovation, economic growth can be sustained in the Korean economy.

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Workflow for Building a Draft Genome Assembly using Public-domain Tools: Toxocara canis as a Case Study (개 회충 게놈 응용 사례에서 공개용 분석 툴을 사용한 드래프트 게놈 어셈블리 생성)

  • Won, JungIm;Kong, JinHwa;Huh, Sun;Yoon, JeeHee
    • KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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    • v.20 no.9
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    • pp.513-518
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    • 2014
  • It has become possible for small scale laboratories to interpret large scale genomic DNA, thanks to the reduction of the sequencing cost by the development of next generation sequencing (NGS). De novo assembly is a method which creates a putative original sequence by reconstructing reads without using a reference sequence. There have been various study results on de novo assembly, however, it is still difficult to get the desired results even by using the same assembly procedures and the analysis tools which were suggested in the studies reported. This is mainly because there are no specific guidelines for the assembly procedures or know-hows for the use of such analysis tools. In this study, to resolve these problems, we introduce steps to finding whole genome of an unknown DNA via NGS technology and de novo assembly, while providing the pros and cons of the various analysis tools used in each step. We used 350Mbp of Toxocara canis DNA as an application case for the detailed explanations of each stated step. We also extend our works for prediction of protein-coding genes and their functions from the draft genome sequence by comparing its homology with reference sequences of other nematodes.

Unity3D-Based Flood Simulation Visualization Web System for Efficient Disaster Management (효과적인 재난관리를 위한 Unity3D 기반 홍수 시뮬레이션 가시화 웹시스템)

  • GANG, Su-Myung;RYU, Dong-Ha;CHOI, Yeong-Cheol;CHOUNG, Yun-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.98-112
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    • 2017
  • Recently, various research has been conducted on the use of a game engine instead of a commercial geographic information system (GIS) engine for the development of 3D GIS. The advantage of the 3D game engine is that it allows developers to develop various modules according to their abilities. In particular, in the area of disasters, a wide range of alternatives for prevention as well as prediction can be presented when new analyses are attempted by combining geographic information and disaster-related information. Furthermore, 3D analysis can be an important factor in analyzing the phenomena occurring in the real 3D world because of the nature of disasters. Therefore, in this study, we tried to develop a visualization module for flood disaster information through a 3D game engine by considering the solutions for cost and manpower problems and the degree of freedom of development. Raw flood data was mapped onto spatial information and interpolation was performed for the natural display of the mapped flood information. Furthermore, we developed a module that intuitively shows dangerous areas to users by generating cumulative information in order to display multidimensional information based on this information. The results of this study are expected to enable various flood information analyses as well as quick response and countermeasures to floods.

Strength Prediction Equations for High Strength Concrete by Schmidt Hammer Test (슈미트 해머 시험에 의한 고강도 콘크리트의 강도 추정식)

  • Kwon, Young-Wung;Park, Song-Chul;Kim, Min-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.18 no.3 s.93
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    • pp.389-395
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    • 2006
  • For the assessment of exsiting concrete structures, it is important to get the real strength of concrete. The load test or core test has many problems due to cost time, easiness, structural damage, and reliability and so on. Thus, various non-destructive test and statistical analysis techniques for strength assessment have been developed. As a result the real strength of concrete can be obtained by both direct and indirect test. In this study, a series of experimental tests of core strength and Schmidt hammer tests on 3, 7, 14, 28, 90, 180, 365, and 730 days' were done for predicting the compressive strength of high strength concrete with 65.0MPa of 28-days' strength. Each experimental results was analyzed by simple regression analysis. Then, reliability level and error rate between the proposed equations and the existing ones was examined. However, the application of the exsisting equations was inadequate to high strength concrete, because they were conducted under normal strength concrete. Therefore, the following compressive strength equations were proposed for predicting the compressive strength of high strength concrete by Schmidt hammer test. The proposed equations by Schmidt hammer test are as follows.

An early warning and decision support system to reduce weather and climate risks in agricultural production

  • Nakagawa, Hiroshi;Ohno, Hiroyuki;Yoshida, Hiroe;Fushimi, Erina;Sasaki, Kaori;Maruyama, Atsushi;Nakano, Satoshi
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2017.06a
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    • pp.303-303
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    • 2017
  • Japanese agriculture has faced to several threats: aging and decrease of farmer population, global competition, and the risk of climate change as well as harsh and variable weather. On the other hands, the number of large scale farms is increasing, because farm lands have been being aggregated to fewer numbers of farms. Cost cutting, development of efficient ways to manage complicatedly scattered farm lands, maintaining yield and quality under variable weather conditions, are required to adapt to changing environments. Information and communications technology (ICT) would contribute to solve such problems and to create innovative technologies. Thus we have been developing an early warning and decision support system to reduce weather and climate risks for rice, wheat and soybean production in Japan. The concept and prototype of the system will be shown. The system consists of a weather data system (Agro-Meteorological Grid Square Data System, AMGSDS), decision support contents where information is automatically created by crop models and delivers information to users via internet. AMGSDS combines JMA's Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) data, numerical weather forecast data and normal values, for all of Japan with about 1km Grid Square throughout years. Our climate-smart system provides information on the prediction of crop phenology, created with weather forecast data and crop phenology models, as an important function. The system also makes recommendations for crop management, such as nitrogen-topdressing, suitable harvest time, water control, pesticide spray. We are also developing methods to perform risk analysis on weather-related damage to crop production. For example, we have developed an algorism to determine the best transplanting date in rice under a given environment, using the results of multi-year simulation, in order to answer the question "when is the best transplanting date to minimize yield loss, to avoid low temperature damage and to avoid high temperature damage?".

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Numerical Analysis on Cutting Power of Disc Cutter with Joint Distribution Patterns (절리분포 양상에 따른 디스크커터의 절삭력에 관한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Joong;Choi, Sung-O.
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.151-163
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    • 2011
  • The LCM test is one of the most powerful and reliable methods for designing the disc cutter and for predicting the TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) performance. It has an advantage to predict the actual load on disc cutter from the laboratory test on the real-size large rock samples, however, it also has a disadvantage to transport and/or prepare the large rock samples and to need an extra cost for experiment. Moreover it is not easy to execute the test for jointed rock mass, and sometimes the design model estimated from the test can not be applied to the real design of disc cutter. In order to break this critical point, lots of numerical studies have been performed. PFC2D can simulate crack propagation and rock fragmentation effectively, because it is useful in particle flow analysis. Consequently, in this study, the PFC2D has been adopted for numerical analysis on cutting power of disc cutter according to the different angle of joint, the different direction of joint, and the different space of joint with jointed rock mass models. From the numerical analyses, it was concluded that the bigger cutting power of disc cutter was needed for reverse cutting direction to joint rather than for forward direction, and the cutting power of disc cutter was increased with decreasing the dip angle of joint and decreasing the space of joints in reverse cutting direction. The more precise numerical model for disc cutter can be developed from comparison between the numerical results and LCM test results, and the resonable guideline is expected for prediction of TBM performance and disc cutter.

Benchmark Test of CFD Software Packages for Sunroof Buffeting in Hyundai Simplified Model (차량 썬루프 버페팅 현상에 대한 전산 해석 소프트웨어의 예측 성능 벤치마크 연구)

  • Cho, Munhwan;Oh, Chisung;Kim, HyoungGun;Ih, Kang-duck
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2014
  • Sunroof buffeting is one of the most critical issues in the vehicle wind noise phenomena. The experimental approach to solve this issue typically requires a lot of time and resources. To reduce time and cost, the numerical approach could be taken, which can also privide more insights into physical phenomena involved in sunroof buffeting, only if the accuracy in its predictions are guranteed. The benchmark test of various numerical solvers is carried out for the buffeting behavior of a simplified vehicle body, the Hyundai simplified model(HSM). The results of each solver are compared to the experimental measurements in a Hyundai aeroacoustic wind tunnel(HAWT) at various wind speeds. In particular, acoustic response tests were performed and the results were provided prior to all simulations in order to consider the real world effects that could introduce discrepancies between the numerical and experimental approaches. Through this study, most solvers can demonstrate an acceptable accuracy level for actual commercial development and high precision experimental data and computational prediction priories can be shared in order to promote the numerical accuracy level of each numerical solver.

Rolling Horizon Implementation for Real-Time Operation of Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model (동적통행배정모형의 실시간 교통상황 반영)

  • SHIN, Seong Il;CHOI, Kee Choo;OH, Young Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 2002
  • The basic assumption of analytical Dynamic Traffic Assignment models is that traffic demand and network conditions are known as a priori and unchanging during the whole planning horizon. This assumption may not be realistic in the practical traffic situation because traffic demand and network conditions nay vary from time to time. The rolling horizon implementation recognizes a fact : The Prediction of origin-destination(OD) matrices and network conditions is usually more accurate in a short period of time, while further into the whole horizon there exists a substantial uncertainty. In the rolling horizon implementation, therefore, rather than assuming time-dependent OD matrices and network conditions are known at the beginning of the horizon, it is assumed that the deterministic information of OD and traffic conditions for a short period are possessed, whereas information beyond this short period will not be available until the time rolls forward. This paper introduces rolling horizon implementation to enable a multi-class analytical DTA model to respond operationally to dynamic variations of both traffic demand and network conditions. In the paper, implementation procedure is discussed in detail, and practical solutions for some raised issues of 1) unfinished trips and 2) rerouting strategy of these trips, are proposed. Computational examples and results are presented and analyzed.

Age-Related Fecal Calprotectin Concentrations in Healthy Adults (건강한 성인의 연령별 분변 칼프로텍틴의 농도)

  • Park, Shin Young
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.181-187
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    • 2020
  • Fecal calprotectin (FC) is a marker used for the differential diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). FC is also used to determine the effects of treatment and recurrence prediction because of its non-decomposition by bacteria, relative week stability at room temperature, and its uniform distribution within feces. Healthy male and female adults between the age of 30 and 80 living in Jeju were selected for this study. The FC concentration in the healthy control group (N=45) was distributed widely as 0~545.9 ㎍/g and showed a significant difference with age in healthy adults. The FC concentration in adults over 70 years old (80.6 years on average) was 160.3 ㎍/g. The result is approximately 10 times higher than in adults below 50 years (44 years on average), with FC concentrations at 15.88 ㎍/g. Moreover, adults over 50 years, with an average age of 59.6, had FC concentrations of 35.46 ㎍/g, which were two times higher than the below 50-year-old group, confirming the significant correlation between age and FC concentration. As the FC test is a non-invasive and cost-effective objective marker in IBD tests, a suitable cut-off value is required for different ages. This study provides the baseline data for differential diagnoses.

Modification of Cutoff Values for HE4, CA125, the Risk of Malignancy Index, and the Risk of Malignancy Algorithm for Ovarian Cancer Detection in Jakarta, Indonesia

  • Winarto, Hariyono;Laihad, Bismarck Joel;Nuranna, Laila
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.1949-1953
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    • 2014
  • Background: CA125 and HE4 are used in calculating Risk of Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA); and Risk of Malignancy Index (RMI). However, studies showed that normal levels of CA125, and HE4 differ among ethnicities such as between Asians and Caucasians, thus affecting the accuracy of the RMI score and ROMA in predicting ovarian malignancy. This study aimed to determine whether new or modified cutoff values for Ca125, HE4, the RMI score, and ROMA resulted in a better prediction of malignancy compared with the previous or standard ones. Materials and Methods: Serum level of CA125 and HE4 from 128 patients with diagnosis of ovarian tumor that had been collected before surgery at Cipto Mangunkusumo General Hospital (CMH) in Jakarta from November 2010 until May 2011 were reviewed and analysed. The standard cutoff values of these biomarkers, RMI, and ROMA were modified by using logistic regression model. The modified cutoff values were compared to the standard cutoff values in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. Results: The modified cutoff value of CA125, HE4, RMI score and ROMA were 165.2 U/mL, 103.4 pM, 368.7, 28/54. The sensitivity and specificity of the modified cutoff values CA125, HE 4, RMI score and ROMA in differentiating benign from malignant and borderline were 67% and 75,4%; 73.1% and 85.2%; 73.1% and 80.3%; and 77.6% and 86.9%. While the sensitivity and specificity of the standard cutoff value of CA125; HE4; RMI score; and ROMA were 91% and 24.6%; 83.6% and 65%; 80.6% and 65.6%; and 91.0% and 42.6%. The accuracy of modified cutoff values compared with standard cutoff values were: 71.2% vs 59.3%, 78.9% vs 75% vs, 76.5% vs 73.4%, and 82% vs 67.9%. Conclusions: The new or modified cutoff values of Ca125, HE4, RMI score and ROMA resulted in higher accuracy compared to the previous or standard ones, at the cost of reduced sensitivity.