• Title/Summary/Keyword: correlation measure

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The Trend and Achievements of Forest Genetics Research in Abroad (선진국(先進國)에 있어서의 임목육종연구(林木育種硏究)의 동향(動向))

  • Hyun, Sin Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 1972
  • The trend and achievements of forest genetics research in abroad were investigated through observation tours and reference work and following facts were found to be important aspects which should be adopted in the forest genetics research program in Korea. Because of world wide recognization on the urgency of taking a measure to reserve some areas of the representative forest type on the globe before the extingtion of such forest type as the results of continuous exploitations of the natural forests to meet the timber demand all over the world, it is urgently needed to take a measure to reserve certain areas of natural stand of Pinus koraiensis, Pinus parviflora, Pinus densiflora f. erectra, Abies koreana, Quercus sp., Populus sp., etc. as gene pool to be used for the future program of forest tree improvement. And the genetic studies of those natural forest of economic tree species are also to be performed. 1. Increase of the number of selected tree for breeding purpose. Because of the fact that the number of plus tree at present is too small to carry out selection program for tree improvement, particularly for the formation of source population for recurrent selection of parent trees of the 2nd generation seed orchard it is to be strongly emphasized to increase the number of plus tree by alleviating selection criteria in order to enlarge the population size of plus trees to make the selection program more efficient. 2. Progeny testing More stress should be placed on carrying out progeny testing of selected trees with open pollinated seeds. And particular efforts are to be made for conducting studies on adult/juvenile correlation of important traits with a view to enable to predict adult performances with some traits revealed in juvenile age thus to save time for progeny testing. 3. Genotype-environment interaction Studies on genotype and environment interaction should be conducted in order to elucidate whether the plus trees selected on the good site express their superiority on the poor site or not and how the environment affect the genotype. And the justification of present classification of seed distribution area should be examined. 4. Seed orchard of broad leaf tree species. Due to the difficulty of accurate comparison of growth rate of neighbouring trees of broad leaf tree species in natural stand, it is recommended that for the improvement of broad leaf trees a seedling seed orchard is to be made by roguing the progeny test plantation planted densely with control pollinated seedlings of selected trees. 5. Breeding for insect resistant varieties. In the light of the fact that the resistant characteristics against insect such as pine gall midge (Thiecodiplosis japonensis U. et I.) and pine bark beetle (Myelophilus pinipera L.) are highly correlated with the amount and quality of resin which are known as gene controlled characteristics, breeding for insect resistance should be carried out. 6. Breeding for timber properties. With the tree species for pulp wood in particular, emphasis should be placed upon breeding for high specific gravity of timber. 7. Introduction of Cryptomeria and Japanese Cypress In the light of the fact that the major clones of Cryptomeria are originated from Yoshino source and are being planted up to considerably north and high elevation in Japan, those species should be examined on their cold resistance in Korea by planting them in further northern part of the country.

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Comparison of Single-Breath and Intra-Breath Method in Measuring Diffusing Capacity for Carbon Monoxide of the Lung (일산화탄소 폐확산능검사에서 단회호흡법과 호흡내검사법의 비교)

  • Lee, Jae-Ho;Chung, Hee-Soon;Shim, Young-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.555-568
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    • 1995
  • Background: It is most physiologic to measure the diffusing capacity of the lung by using oxygen, but it is so difficult to measure partial pressure of oxygen in the capillary blood of the lung that in clinical practice it is measured by using carbon monoxide, and single-breath diffusing capacity method is used most widely. However, since the process of withholding the breath for 10 seconds after inspiration to the total lung capacity is very hard to practice for patients who suffer from cough, dyspnea, etc, the intra-breath lung diffusing capacity method which requires a single exhalation of low-flow rate without such process was devised. In this study, we want to know whether or not there is any significant difference in the diffusing capacity of the lung measured by the single-breath and intra-breath methods, and if any, which factors have any influence. Methods: We chose randomly 73 persons without regarding specific disease, and after conducting 3 times the flow-volume curve test, we selected forced vital capacity(FVC), percent of predicted forced vital capacity, forced expiratory volume within 1 second($FEV_1$), percent of forced expiratory volume within 1 second, the ratio of forced expiratory volume within 1 second against forced vital capacity($FEV_1$/FVC) in test which the sum of FVC and $FEV_1$ is biggest. We measured the diffusing capacity of the lung 3 times in each of the single-breath and intra-breath methods at intervals of 5 minutes, and we evaluated which factors have any influence on the difference of the diffusing capacity of the lung between two methods[the mean values(ml/min/mmHg) of difference between two diffusing capacity measured by two methods] by means of the linear regression method, and obtained the following results: Results: 1) Intra-test reproducibility in the single-breath and intra-breath methods was excellent. 2) There was in general a good correlation between the diffusing capacity of the lung measured by a single-breath method and that measured by the intra-breath method, but there was a significant difference between values measured by both methods($1.01{\pm}0.35ml/min/mmHg$, p<0.01) 3) The difference between the diffusing capacity of the lung measured by both methods was not correlated to FVC, but was correlated to $FEV_1$, percent of $FEV_1$, $FEV_1$/FVC and the gradient of methane concentration which is an indicator of distribution of ventilation, and it was found as a result of the multiple regression test, that the effect of $FEV_1$/FVC was most strong(r=-0.4725, p<0.01) 4) In a graphic view of the difference of diffusing capacity measured by single-breath and intra-breath method and $FEV_1$/FVC, it was found that the former was divided into two groups in section where $FEV_1$/FVC is 50~60%, and that there was no significant difference between two methods in the section where $FEV_1$/FVC is equal or more than 60% ($0.05{\pm}0.24ml/min/mmHg$, p>0.1), but there was significant difference in the section, less than 60%($-4.5{\pm}0.34ml/min/mmHg$, p<0.01). 5. The diffusing capacity of the lung measured by the single-breath and intra-breath method was the same in value($24.3{\pm}0.68ml/min/mmHg$) within the normal range(2%/L) of the methane gas gradient, and there was no difference depending on the measuring method, but if the methane concentration gradients exceed 2%/L, the diffusing capacity of the lung measured by single-breath method became $15.0{\pm}0.44ml/min/mmHg$, and that measured by intra-breath method, $11.9{\pm}0.51ml/min/mmHg$, and there was a significant difference between them(p<0.01). Conclusion: Therefore, in case where $FEV_1$/FVC was less than 60%, the diffusing capacity of the lung measured by intra-breath method represented significantly lower value than that by single-breath method, and it was presumed to be caused largely by a defect of ventilation-distribution, but the possibility could not be excluded that the diffusing capacity of the lung might be overestimated in the single-breath method, or the actual reduction of the diffusing capacity of the lung appeared more sensitively in the intra-breath method.

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Modeling of Estimating Soil Moisture, Evapotranspiration and Yield of Chinese Cabbages from Meteorological Data at Different Growth Stages (기상자료(氣象資料)에 의(依)한 배추 생육시기별(生育時期別) 토양수분(土壤水分), 증발산량(蒸發散量) 및 수량(收量)의 추정모형(推定模型))

  • Im, Jeong-Nam;Yoo, Soon-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.386-408
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    • 1988
  • A study was conducted to develop a model for estimating evapotranspiration and yield of Chinese cabbages from meteorological factors from 1981 to 1986 in Suweon, Korea. Lysimeters with water table maintained at 50cm depth were used to measure the potential evapotranspiration and the maximum evapotranspiration in situ. The actual evapotranspiration and the yield were measured in the field plots irrigated with different soil moisture regimes of -0.2, -0.5, and -1.0 bars, respectively. The soil water content throughout the profile was monitored by a neutron moisture depth gauge and the soil water potentials were measured using gypsum block and tensiometer. The fresh weight of Chinese cabbages at harvest was measured as yield. The data collected in situ were analyzed to obtain parameters related to modeling. The results were summarized as followings: 1. The 5-year mean of potential evapotranspiration (PET) gradually increased from 2.38 mm/day in early April to 3.98 mm/day in mid-June, and thereafter, decreased to 1.06 mm/day in mid-November. The estimated PET by Penman, Radiation or Blanney-Criddle methods were overestimated in comparison with the measured PET, while those by Pan-evaporation method were underestimated. The correlation between the estimated and the measured PET, however, showed high significance except for July and August by Blanney-Criddle method, which implied that the coefficients should be adjusted to the Korean conditions. 2. The meteorological factors which showed hgih correlation with the measured PET were temperature, vapour pressure deficit, sunshine hours, solar radiation and pan-evaporation. Several multiple regression equations using meteorological factors were formulated to estimate PET. The equation with pan-evaporation (Eo) was the simplest but highly accurate. PET = 0.712 + 0.705Eo 3. The crop coefficient of Chinese cabbages (Kc), the ratio of the maximum evapotranspiration (ETm) to PET, ranged from 0.5 to 0.7 at early growth stage and from 0.9 to 1.2 at mid and late growth stages. The regression equation with respect to the growth progress degree (G), ranging from 0.0 at transplanting day to 1.0 at the harvesting day, were: $$Kc=0.598+0.959G-0.501G^2$$ for spring cabbages $$Kc=0.402+1.887G-1.432G^2$$ for autumn cabbages 4. The soil factor (Kf), the ratio of the actual evapotranspiration to the maximum evapotranspiration, showed 1.0 when the available soil water fraction (f) was higher than a threshold value (fp) and decreased linearly with decreasing f below fp. The relationships were: Kf=1.0 for $$f{\geq}fp$$ Kf=a+bf for f$$I{\leq}Esm$$ Es = Esm for I > Esm 6. The model for estimating actual evapotranspiration (ETa) was based on the water balance neglecting capillary rise as: ETa=PET. Kc. Kf+Es 7. The model for estimating relative yield (Y/Ym) was selected among the regression equations with the measured ETa as: Y/Ym=a+bln(ETa) The coefficients and b were 0.07 and 0.73 for spring Chinese cabbages and 0.37 and 0.66 for autumn Chinese cabbages, respectively. 8. The estimated ETa and Y/Ym were compared with the measured values to verify the model established above. The estimated ETa showed disparities within 0.29mm/day for spring Chinese cabbages and 0.19mm/day for autumn Chinese cabbages. The average deviation of the estimated relative yield were 0.14 and 0.09, respectively. 9. The deviations between the estimated values by the model and the actual values obtained from three cropping field experiments after the completion of the model calibration were within reasonable confidence range. Therefore, this model was validated to be used in practical purpose.

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A Study of Reliability and Validity on the Korean Version of Social Adaptation Self Rating Scale(SASS) (한국어판 사회적응자기평가척도(SASS)의 신뢰도 및 타당도 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeong-Seob;Kim, Yong-Ku;Yoon, Choong-Han;Jeong, Han-Yong;Cheong, Young-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.212-227
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    • 2000
  • This study was designed to testify the reliability and validation on the Korean version of the Social Adaptation Self-rating Scale(SASS) which was developed from Bose et al. for the evaluation of social motivation and behavior of depressed patients in 1997. Interests for the social world, those of social functioning, of patients were involved in the addition of new measure of disturbance. And those were distinct from abnormalities of thought, mood and symptoms of patients with major depression. As the previous reports there were several evidences that treatments may be less likely to be effective if the system they act on is dysfunctional. Thus, a better social situation favoured better outcome. As a matter of fact, however, those reports were developed in the course of the evaluation of interpersonal therapy(IPT) and cognitive therapy. Accordingly the conversed question -whether pharmacological therapy with antidepressants can impact on social functioning in addition to addressing the core features of illness- has been addressed. To date, anyhow, it is accepted that enhancement of social functioning may be a therapeutic principle in its own right and illness rarely divorced from social context. In terms of those concepts the introduction of an assessment of social functioning into pharmacotherapeutic studies of depression has been welcomed and might be a potent instrument for evaluating the relative pharmacoeconomic benefits of different treatments. Despite of many scales which were applied for the evaluation of symptoms in the patients with depression, however, the scale for the evaluation of social functiong has not been introduced in Korea yet. Thus, this study was designed to introduce the concepts of social functioning in the patients with depression and to testify the reliability and validation on Korean version of SASS. This Korean version of SASS was submitted to a reliability and validation procedure based on the data from healthy general population survey in 291 individuals and 40 patients with major depression. Cronbach a was 0.790 in total subjects group and the correlation of test-retest was statistically significant(y=0.653, p<0.0l). Thus, the Korean version of SASS might be shown to be valid and reliable. The results of multivariate analyses allowed the identification of 3 principle factors(factor 1 = intersts in social activities, factor 2 = active interpersonal relationship, factor 3 = selfesteem) in normal group, however, it could be counted as only one factor in the depression group because nearly total items of SASS were involved in factor 1. In the view of these results, the Korean version of SASS may be useful additional tool for the evaluation of social functioning in depression.

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Plasma G-CSF and GM-CSF Concentrations and Expression of their Receptors on the Granulocyte in Children with Leukocytosis (백혈구 증가증 환아의 혈장내 G-CSF와 GM-CSF의 농도 및 과립구에서의 이들 수용체의 발현)

  • Choi, Won Seok;Ryu, Kyung Hwan;Kim, You Jeong;Kim, So Young;Kim, Hyun Hee;Lee, Wonbae
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.271-276
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : Granulocyte-colony stimulating factor(G-CSF) and granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor(GM-CSF) are principal cytokines in granulopoiesis and their physiologic effects are mediated through binding to specific cell surface receptors. Although it is known that the level of serum G-CSF and GM-CSF, and presentation of the receptors are increased in infectious diseases, there have been no studies to find the correlation between the granulopoiesis and leukocytosis. This study was designed to measure G-CSF and GM-CSF in leukocytosis and in control and to demonstrate the possible pathogenesis of granulopoiesis in leukocytosis using quantitative analysis of G-CSF, GM-CSF and their CSFr. Methods : The plasma levels of G-CSF, GM-CSF of 13 children without leukocytosis and 14 children with leukocytosis were measured. Counts of cell surface G-CSFr and GM-CSFr were measured by combining anti G-CSFr and anti GM-CSFr monoclonal antibodies to their respective receptors by using quantitative flow cytometric assay. Results : There was no significant difference betweeen the plasma concentration of G-CSF and GM-CSF in acute leukocytosis and in the control group. However, levels of G-CSFr in acute leukocytosis decreased significantly compared to the control(P=0.012) and the levels of GM-CSFr in both groups revealed no significant difference. Conclusion : Increase in the number of leukocyte in leukocytosis was mediated by increasing the number of neutrophil, and increased plasma concentration of G-CSF may be the cause of neutrophilia. But GM-CSF did not have any influence on leukocytosis.

Effect of the Angle of Ventricular Septal Wall on Left Anterior Oblique View in Multi-Gated Cardiac Blood Pool Scan (게이트 심장 혈액풀 스캔에서 심실중격 각도에 따른 좌전사위상 변화에 대한 연구)

  • You, Yeon Wook;Lee, Chung Wun;Seo, Yeong Deok;Choi, Ho Yong;Kim, Yun Cheol;Kim, Yong Geun;Won, Woo Jae;Bang, Ji-In;Lee, Soo Jin;Kim, Tae-Sung
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2016
  • Purpose In order to calculate the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) accurately, it is important to acquire the best septal view of left ventricle in the multi-gated cardiac blood pool scan (GBP). This study aims to acquire the best septal view by measuring angle of ventricular septal wall (${\theta}$) using enhanced CT scan and compare with conventional method using left anterior oblique (LAO) 45 view. Materials and Methods From March to July in 2015, we analyzed the 253 patients who underwent both enhanced chest CT and GBP scan in the department of nuclear medicine at National Cancer Center. Angle (${\theta}$) between ventricular septum and imaginary midline was measured in transverse image of enhanced chest CT scan, and the patients whose difference between the angle of ${\theta}$ and 45 degree was more than 10 degrees were included. GBP scan was acquired using both LAO 45 and LAO ${\theta}$ views, and LVEFs measured by automated and manual region of interest (Auto-ROI and Manual-ROI) modes respectively were analyzed. Results $Mean{\pm}SD$ of ${\theta}$ on total 253 patients was $37.0{\pm}8.5^{\circ}$. Among them, the patients whose difference between 45 and ${\theta}$ degrees were more than ${\pm}10$ degrees were 88 patients ($29.3{\pm}6.1^{\circ}$). In Auto-ROI mode, there was statistically significant difference between LAO 45 and LAO ${\theta}$ (LVEF $45=62.0{\pm}6.6%$ vs. LVEF ${\theta}=64.0{\pm}5.6%$; P = 0.001). In Manual-ROI mode, there was also statistically significant difference between LAO 45 and LAO ${\theta}$ (LVEF $45=66.7{\pm}7.2%$ vs. LVEF ${\theta}=69.0{\pm}6.4%$; P < 0.001). Intraclass correlation coefficients of both methods were more than 95%. In case of comparison between Auto-ROI and Manual ROI of each LAO 45 and LAO ${\theta}$, there was no significant difference statistically. Conclusion We could measure the angle of ventricular septal wall accurately by using transverse image of enhanced chest CT and applied to LAO acquisition in the GBP scan. It might be the alternative method to acquire the best septal view of LAO effectively. We could notify significant difference between conventional LAO 45 and LAO ${\theta}$ view.

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Mumps- and Rubella-specific IgG Levels in Adolescents (청소년기의 연령증가에 따른 볼거리 및 풍진 항체가 변동)

  • Cheon, Hae Won;Shin, Young Kyoo;Lee, Kang Woo;Choung, Ji Tae;Tockgo, Young Chang
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.128-135
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : This study was intended to measure seropositivities and the level of mumps- and rubella-specific IgG of MMR vaccinees from 12 to 17 years of age in Korea. Materials and Methods : From May 1996 to July 1996 we obtained sera from students of 1 middle and 2 high schools in Seoul, who were MMR vaccinees from 12 to 17 years of age and had no evidence of immunodeficiency. These 216 study population include 110 males and 106 females. Mumps- and rubella-specific IgG antibody levels were measured by ELISA. Cut-off values for seropositivity were 20 U(Gamma Unit) in mumps and over 0.17 in rubella. Results : 1) As age increased, seropositivities to mumps increased, being 68.4% in 12 year, 79.3% in 13 year, 72.2% in 14 year, 82.0% in 15 year, 87.5% in 16 year, 87.0% in 17 year, which however has no statistical significance. 2) As age increased, the level of mumps-specific IgG antibody(mean+standard deviation, GU) increased, being $52.0{\pm}49.2$ in 12 year, $65.9{\pm}51.4$ in 13 year, $71.1{\pm}66.0$ in 14 year, $67.8{\pm}53.6$ in 15 year, $82.8{\pm}67.8$ in 16 year, $92.0{\pm}68.9$ in 17 year, which however has no statistical significance. 3) As age increased, seropositivities of rubella-specific IgG increased significantly, being 26.3% in 12 year, 20.7% in 13 year, 50.0% in 14 year, 67.2% in 15 year, 66.7% in 16 year, 65.2% in 17 year(P<0.001). 4) As age increased, rubella-specific IgG increased significantly, being $0.13{\pm}0.145$ in 12 year, $0.087{\pm}0.101$ in 13 year, $0.194{\pm}0.168$ in 14 year, $0.260{\pm}0.187$ in 15 year, $0.305{\pm}0.213$ in 16 year, $0.325{\pm}0.221$ in 17 year(P<0.001). There was positive correlation between age and rubella-specific IgG titer(rubella-specific $IgG=0.0517{\times}age-0.5586$, r=0.3752, P<0.001). Conclusion : In adolescent, seropositivities and the level of mumps-specific IgG remained relatively high, but approximately 20% of study population showed seronegativity. Seropositivities and the level of rubella-specific IgG showed the lowest level at 13 years of age and were increased with age after 14 years of age. Further evaluation may be needed to elucidate the cause of these changes of rubella-specific IgG.

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The Effect of Pleural Thickening on the Impairment of Pulmonary Function in Asbestos Exposed Workers (석면취급 근로자에서 늑막비후가 폐기능에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Jee-Won;Ahn, Hyeong-Sook;Kim, Kyung-Ah;Lim, Young;Yun, Im-Goung
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.923-933
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    • 1995
  • Background: Pleural abnormality is the the most common respiratory change caused by asbestos dust inhalation and also develop other asbestos related disease after cessation of asbestos exposure. So we conducted epidemiologic study to investigate if the pleural abnormality is associated with pulmonary function change and what factors are influenced on pulmonary function impairment. Methods: Two hundred and twenty two asbestos workers from 9 industries using asbestos in Korea were selected to measure the concentration of sectional asbestos fiber. Ouestionnaire, chest X-ray, PFT were also performed. All the data were analyzed by student t-test and chi-square test using SAS. Regressional analysis was performed to evaluate important factors, for example smoking, exposure concentration, period and the existence of pleural thickening, affecting to the change of pulmonary function. Results: 1) All nine industries except two, airborn asbestos fiber concentration was less than an average permissible concentration. PFT was performed on 222 workers and the percentage of male was 88.3%, their mean age was $41{\pm}9$ years old, and the duration of asbestos exposure was $10.6{\pm}7.8$ yrs. 2) The chest X-ray showed normal(89.19%), pulmonary Tb(inactive)(2.7%), pleral thickening (7.66%), suspected reticulonodular shadow(0.9%). 3) The mean values of height, smoking status, concentration of asbestos fiberwere not different between the subjects with pleural thickening and others, but age, cumulative pack-years, the duration of asbestos exposure were higher in subjects with pleural thickening. 4) All the PFT indices were lower in the subjects with pleural thickening than in the subjects without pleural thickening. 5) Simple regression analysis showed there was a significant correlation between $FEF_{75}$ which is sensitive in small airway obstruction and cumulative smoking pack-years, the duration of asbestos exposure and the concentration of asbestos fiber. 6) Multiple regression analysis showed all the pulmonary function indices were decreased as the increase of cumulative smoking pack-years and especially in the indices those are sensitive in small airway obstruction. Pleural thickening was associated with reduction in FVC, $FEV_1$, PEFR and $FEF_{25}$. Conclusion: The more concentration of asbestos fiber and the more duration of asbestos exposure, the greater reduction in $FEF_{50}$, $FEF_{75}$. Therefore PFT was important in the evaluation of early detection for small airway obstruction. Furthermore pleural thickening without asbesto-related parenchymal lung disease is associated with reduction in pulmonary function.

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Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)

  • Song, Minchae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2017
  • It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.

Product Community Analysis Using Opinion Mining and Network Analysis: Movie Performance Prediction Case (오피니언 마이닝과 네트워크 분석을 활용한 상품 커뮤니티 분석: 영화 흥행성과 예측 사례)

  • Jin, Yu;Kim, Jungsoo;Kim, Jongwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.49-65
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    • 2014
  • Word of Mouth (WOM) is a behavior used by consumers to transfer or communicate their product or service experience to other consumers. Due to the popularity of social media such as Facebook, Twitter, blogs, and online communities, electronic WOM (e-WOM) has become important to the success of products or services. As a result, most enterprises pay close attention to e-WOM for their products or services. This is especially important for movies, as these are experiential products. This paper aims to identify the network factors of an online movie community that impact box office revenue using social network analysis. In addition to traditional WOM factors (volume and valence of WOM), network centrality measures of the online community are included as influential factors in box office revenue. Based on previous research results, we develop five hypotheses on the relationships between potential influential factors (WOM volume, WOM valence, degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality) and box office revenue. The first hypothesis is that the accumulated volume of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The second hypothesis is that the accumulated valence of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The third hypothesis is that the average of degree centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fourth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fifth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. To verify our research model, we collect movie review data from the Internet Movie Database (IMDb), which is a representative online movie community, and movie revenue data from the Box-Office-Mojo website. The movies in this analysis include weekly top-10 movies from September 1, 2012, to September 1, 2013, with in total. We collect movie metadata such as screening periods and user ratings; and community data in IMDb including reviewer identification, review content, review times, responder identification, reply content, reply times, and reply relationships. For the same period, the revenue data from Box-Office-Mojo is collected on a weekly basis. Movie community networks are constructed based on reply relationships between reviewers. Using a social network analysis tool, NodeXL, we calculate the averages of three centralities including degree, betweenness, and closeness centrality for each movie. Correlation analysis of focal variables and the dependent variable (final revenue) shows that three centrality measures are highly correlated, prompting us to perform multiple regressions separately with each centrality measure. Consistent with previous research results, our regression analysis results show that the volume and valence of WOM are positively related to the final box office revenue of movies. Moreover, the averages of betweenness centralities from initial community networks impact the final movie revenues. However, both of the averages of degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence final movie performance. Based on the regression results, three hypotheses, 1, 2, and 4, are accepted, and two hypotheses, 3 and 5, are rejected. This study tries to link the network structure of e-WOM on online product communities with the product's performance. Based on the analysis of a real online movie community, the results show that online community network structures can work as a predictor of movie performance. The results show that the betweenness centralities of the reviewer community are critical for the prediction of movie performance. However, degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence movie performance. As future research topics, similar analyses are required for other product categories such as electronic goods and online content to generalize the study results.