• 응용통계연구
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.455-467
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• 2003

소표본 분할표 자료에서 적합도 검정통계량들의 카이제곱 근사 적용 가능에 대하여 많은 연구가 진행되었다. 소표본에서 세 가지 검정 통계량(피어슨 카이제곱 Χ$^2$, 일반화 가능도비 G$^2$, 그리고 역발산 Ι(2/3) 검정통계량)에 관하여 비교한 Rudas(1986)의 연구를 확장하여, 최근에 제안된 차이측도(BWHD(1/9), BWCS(1/3), NED(4/3) 검정통계량)를 포함시켜 비교 분석하였다. 독립모형의 이차원 분할표, 조건부 독립모형과 한 변수 독립 모형을 따르는 삼차원 분할표에 대한 모의실험을 통하여 생성된 90과 95 백분위수와 이에 대응하는 95% 신뢰구간을 살펴보고 실제 백분위수와 비교하였다. 그 결과 Χ$^2$, Ι(2/3), 그리고 BWHD(1/9) 검정통계량이 유사한 결과를 나타내었고 이 통계량들이 기존에 제안된 검정통계량들보다 적은 표본크기에서도 카이제곱 근사방법에 적용 가능함을 발견하였다.

• 천문학회보
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.80.1-80.1
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• 2016

There are probabilistic forecast models for solar flare occurrence, which can be evaluated by various skill scores (e.g. accuracy, critical success index, heidek skill score, and true skill score). Since these skill scores assume that two types of forecast errors (i.e. false alarm and miss) are equal or constant, which does not take into account different situations of users, they may be unrealistic. In this study, we make an evaluation of a probabilistic flare forecast model [Lee et al., 2012] which use sunspot groups and its area changes as a proxy of flux emergence. We calculate daily solar flare probabilities from 2011 to 2014 using this model. The skill scores are computed through contingency tables as a function of forecast probability, which corresponds to the maximum skill score depending on flare class and type of a skill score. We use a value score with cost/loss ratio, relative importance between the two types of forecast errors. The forecast probability (y) is linearly changed with the cost/loss ratio (x) in the form of y=ax+b: a=0.88; b=0 (C), a=1.2; b=-0.05(M), a=1.29; b=-0.02(X). We find that the forecast model has an effective range of cost/loss ratio for each class flare: 0.536-0.853(C), 0.147-0.334(M), and 0.023-0.072(X). We expect that this study would provide a guideline to determine the probability threshold and the cost/loss ratio for space weather forecast.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.54-66
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• 2020

This study was conducted to evaluate usefulness of numerical weather prediction data generated by the Unified Model (UM) for plant disease forecast. Using the UM06- and UM18-predicted weather data, which were released at 0600 and 1800 Universal Time Coordinated (UTC), respectively, by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), disease forecast on bacterial grain rot (BGR) of rice was examined as compared with the model output based on the automated weather stations (AWS)-observed weather data. We analyzed performance of BGRcast based on the UM-predicted and the AWS-observed daily minimum temperature and average relative humidity in 2014 and 2015 from 29 locations representing major rice growing areas in Korea using regression analysis and two-way contingency table analysis. Temporal changes in weather conduciveness at two locations in 2014 were also analyzed with regard to daily weather conduciveness (C_i) and the 20-day and 7-day moving averages of C_i for the inoculum build-up phase (C_inc) prior to the panicle emergence of rice plants and the infection phase (C_inf) during the heading stage of rice plants, respectively. Based on C_inc and C_inf, we were able to obtain the same disease warnings at all locations regardless of the sources of weather data. In conclusion, the numerical weather prediction data from KMA could be reliable to apply as input data for plant disease forecast models. Weather prediction data would facilitate applications of weather-driven disease models for better disease management. Crop growers would have better options for disease control including both protective and curative measures when weather prediction data are used for disease warning.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.89-98
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• 2017

본 연구는 인과관계 분석에서 주로 활용되는 SPSS statistics(회귀분석)과 구조방정식모델을 구현하는 프로그램 중 하나인 AMOS 프로그램을 각각 활용하여 동일한 데이터에 대하여 조절효과 검정을 위한 실증분석을 실시하였다. 실증분석 결과, SPSS statistics을 활용한 회귀분석에서 상황변수가 범주형데이터인 성별과 연속형데이터인 컨설팅만족도 모두에서 조절효과가 없는 것으로 나타난 반면, AMOS 프로그램을 활용한 구조방정식모델에서는 10% 유의수준에서 컨설턴트의 능력 및 태도가 컨설팅재구매에 미치는 영향관계를 컨설팅만족도가 부분적으로 조절하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 결국, 조절효과 분석은 AMOS 프로그램을 활용한 구조방정식모델과 SPSS statistics을 활용한 회귀분석모델이 전혀 다른 접근방법을 사용하고 있어 얼마든지 상이한 결과가 나올 수 있음을 보여준다.

• 대기
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.197-208
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to describe the short-range forecast system of the Korea Air Force (KAF) and to verificate its performace in 2009 summer. The KAF weather prediction model system, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (i.e., the KAF-WRF), is configured with a parent domain overs East Asia and two nested domains with the finest horizontal grid size of 2 km. Each domain covers the Korean peninsula and South Korea, respectively. The model is integrated for 84 hour 4 times a day with the initial and boundary conditions from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) data. A quantitative verification system is constructed for the East Asia and Korean peninsula domains. Verification variables for the East Asia domain are 500 hPa temperature, wind and geopotential height fields, and the skill score is calculated using the difference between the analysis data from the NCEP GFS model and the forecast data of the KAF-WRF model results. Accuracy of precipitation for the Korean penisula domain is examined using the contingency table that is made of the KAF-WRF model results and the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administraion) AWS (Automatic Weather Station) data. Using the verification system, the operational model and parallel model with updated version of the WRF model and improved physics process are quantitatively evaluated for the 2009 summer. Over the East Aisa region, the parallel experimental model shows the better performance than the operation model. Errors of the experimental model in 500 hPa geopotential height near the Tibetan plateau are smaller than errors in the operational model. Over the Korean peninsula, verification of precipitation prediction skills shows that the performance of the operational model is better than that of the experimental one in simulating light precipitation. However, performance of experimental one is generally better than that of operational one, in prediction.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.474-486
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• 2015

This paper proposes a multi-objective optimal placement method of Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) in large electric transmission systems. It is proposed for minimizing the number of PMUs for complete system observability and maximizing measurement redundancy of the buses, simultaneously. The measurement redundancy of the bus indicates that number of times a bus is able to monitor more than once by PMUs set. A high level of measurement redundancy can maximize the system observability and it is required for a reliable power system state estimation. Therefore, simultaneous optimizations of the two conflicting objectives are performed using a binary coded firefly algorithm. The complete observability of the power system is first prepared and then, single line loss contingency condition is added to the main model. The practical measurement limitation of PMUs is also considered. The efficiency of the proposed method is validated on IEEE 14, 30, 57 and 118 bus test systems and a real and large- scale Polish 2383 bus system. The valuable approach of firefly algorithm is demonstrated in finding the optimal number of PMUs and their locations by comparing its performance with earlier works.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제21권8호
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• pp.34-43
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• 2007

본 연구에서는 배전시스템 안정성의 요소라 할 수 있는 고조파, 전압변동, Sag/Swell, 신뢰도의 측면에서 배전시스템을 전력품질 측면에서 안정성을 종합적으로 평가하는 방법을 개발하였다. 시스템이 전력품질의 측면에서 얼마나 안정적인가를 정량적으로 평가하기 위해서 AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)를 사용하여 종합 전력품질 통합지수를 산정하는 방법을 제안하였다. 또한 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 수행함으로서 사고를 고려한 배전계통의 안정성을 평가하였다.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.30-34
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• 2005

Due to old Toshiba EMS's database size limit and hardware old aging, KPX(Korea Power Exchange) had introduced New EMS from AREVA(old ALSTOM) in July 2002. After then KPX had committed many man power and time to normalize EMS NA(Network Analysis) functions for using real power system. At initial stage, to normalize State Estimator which is the backbone of all other NA functions and DTS(Dispatcher Training Simulator}, KPX had corrected numerous topology errors, network model errors, non-scanned and wrongly scanned SCADA measured errors. After SE function study, running test and tuning, State Estimator could finally have been run properly and stably from June 2003. Based on SE running, KPX had normalized real time Contingency Analysis, and study mode Power Flow, STNET and DTS. From early 2004, dispatchers have been trained to use NA and DTS for the purpose of stable SE running, NA operation & results reading and urgent equipment outage reviewing. EMS NA have been greatly contributed to operate real time power system stably. Above NA normal operation by KPX own efforts under the no experience of NA running, KPX made a good precedent. This paper is intended to introduce EMS NA normalization process, operation status, and etc in Korea power system operation.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.471-485
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• 2005

범주형 자료분석에서 차원축소(collapsibility)는 오즈비로 설명되었다. 실제의 $2{\times}2{\times}K$ 분할표 자료를 이 이론에 적응시켰을 때 오즈비의 값으로 차원축소가 가능한지의 여부를 판단하기는 어렵다. 오즈비를 시각적으로 표현하는 방법 중에서 Doi, Nakamura와 Yamamoto(2001)가 제안한 Contour plot을 통해서 분할표 자료를 설명하는 것은 가능하지만 차원축소의 가능성을 결정하기에는 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 오즈비의 신뢰구간을 시각적으로 표현할 수 있는 방법으로 Barrowman과 Myers(2003)가 제안한 Raindrop plot을 이용하여 $2{\times}2{\times}K$ 분할표 자료를 설명할 수 있으며 동시에 차원축소의 가능성을 판단할 수 있는 방법을 제안하고자 한다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.197-203
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• 2020

This study investigates graduate competencies that can improve the uptake of higher education graduate outcomes in the working environment in Indonesia. This research was conducted by collecting data through sending questionnaires directly by the research team, via courier, or via postal service to respondents. A survey with questionnaire is carried out on April 2019, and the data from 117 respondents was analyzed. The sample population was all private higher education in the area of the I-XIV Higher Education Service Institution in Indonesia. This study employs factor analysis and structural equation modelling. The results show that the Graduates' competencies had a significant direct effect on the uptake of higher education graduates in the job market. The indirect effect of a Diploma Supplement and networking as mediation has a level of influence that is higher than the direct effect of graduate competence on the uptake of higher education graduate outcomes in the job market. The findings suggest that the Diploma Supplement and networking can increase the uptake of higher education graduates in Indonesia as expected by stakeholders and be able to compete in the global or international scale of environmental working. The professionalism of lecturers has a significant influence on the quality of learning.