• Title/Summary/Keyword: confidence factor

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Temporal Change in Radiological Environments on Land after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

  • Saito, Kimiaki;Mikami, Satoshi;Andoh, Masaki;Matsuda, Norihiro;Kinase, Sakae;Tsuda, Shuichi;Sato, Tetsuro;Seki, Akiyuki;Sanada, Yukihisa;Wainwright-Murakami, Haruko;Yoshimura, Kazuya;Takemiya, Hiroshi;Takahashi, Junko;Kato, Hiroaki;Onda, Yuichi
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.128-148
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    • 2019
  • Massive environmental monitoring has been conducted continuously since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power accident in March of 2011 by different monitoring methods that have different features together with migration studies of radiocesium in diverse environments. These results have clarified the characteristics of radiological environments and their temporal change around the Fukushima site. At three months after the accident, multiple radionuclides including radiostrontium and plutonium were detected in many locations; and it was confirmed that radiocesium was most important from the viewpoint of long-term exposure. Radiation levels around the Fukushima site have decreased greatly over time. The decreasing trend was found to change variously according to local conditions. The air dose rates in environments related to human living have decreased faster than expected from radioactive decay by a factor of 2-3 on average; those in pure forest have decreased more closely to physical decay. The main causes of air dose rate reduction were judged to be radioactive decay, movement of radiocesium in vertical and horizontal directions, and decontamination. Land-use categories and human activities have significantly affected the reduction tendency. Difference in the air dose rate reduction trends can be explained qualitatively according to the knowledge obtained in radiocesium migration studies; whereas, the quantitative explanation for individual sites is an important future challenge. The ecological half-lives of air dose rates have been evaluated by several researchers, and a short-term half-life within 1 year was commonly observed in the studies. An empirical model for predicting air dose rate distribution was developed based on statistical analysis of an extensive car-borne survey dataset, which enabled the prediction with confidence intervals. Different types of contamination maps were integrated to better quantify the spatial data. The obtained data were used for extended studies such as for identifying the main reactor that caused the contamination of arbitrary regions and developing standard procedures for environmental measurement and sampling. Annual external exposure doses for residents who intended to return to their homes were estimated as within a few millisieverts. Different forms of environmental data and knowledge have been provided for wide spectrum of people. Diverse aspects of lessons learned from the Fukushima accident, including practical ones, must be passed on to future generations.

Characteristics of Explanatory Hypothesis Formation by Anxiety Types in High School Students Cognitive Conflict about Action-Reaction Task (II) (작용 반작용 과제에서 고등학생의 인지갈등 불안유형에 따른 설명가설 형성의 특성(II))

  • Kim, Yeoun-Soo;Cho, Yeoung-Hean;Kwon, Jae-Sool
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.400-410
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    • 2005
  • According to the cognitive conflict process model, student anxiety factor is known to have both positive and negative effects on student response behaviors in a conflict situation for conceptual change learning. However, there is little research that reveals what type of anxiety, either constructive or destructive, is related when conducting step-by-step experiments to resolve cognitive conflicts. This study attempted to learn the characteristic of explanatory hypothesis according to anxiety type after conducting five step-by-step experiments related to action and reaction concept. Results found that students who belonged to the types of 'conviction in logical misconception', 'insisting on additional variables', and 'reasonable modification' suggested explanatory hypothesis close to physical nature. On the other hand, those who showed the other five types of anxiety ('compatible predictions', 'dependence on others', 'fusion of past experience', 'lack of confidence', and 'conflict with past experience') suggested temporary supported hypothesis or simple explanatory hypothesis according to student intuition and simple observation. These results indicate that students in the above-mentioned five categories need more external interactions with instructors based on the type of anxiety related to student behavior. In addition, the results present student characteristics which instructors should be more attentive to when using step-by-step experiments to resolve cognitive conflicts.

Complex oncologic resection and reconstruction of the scalp: Predictors of morbidity and mortality

  • Tecce, Michael G.;Othman, Sammy;Mauch, Jaclyn T.;Nathan, Shelby;Tilahun, Estifanos;Broach, Robyn B.;Azoury, Said C.;Kovach, Stephen J.
    • Archives of Craniofacial Surgery
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.229-236
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    • 2020
  • Background: Oncologic resection of the scalp confers several obstacles to the reconstructive surgeon dependent upon patient-specific and wound-specific factors. We aim to describe our experiences with various reconstructive methods, and delineate risk factors for coverage failure and complications in the setting of scalp reconstruction. Methods: A retrospective chart review was conducted, examining patients who underwent resection of fungating scalp tumors with subsequent soft-tissue reconstruction from 2003 to 2019. Patient demographics, wound and oncologic characteristics, treatment modalities, and outcomes were recorded and analyzed. Results: A total of 189 patients were appropriate for inclusion, undergoing a range of reconstructive methods from skin grafting to free flaps. Thirty-three patients (17.5%) underwent preoperative radiation. In all, 48 patients (25.4%) suffered wound site complications, 25 (13.2%) underwent reoperation, and 47 (24.9%) suffered from mortality. Preoperative radiation therapy was an independent risk factor for wound complications (odds ratio [OR], 2.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-7.3; p=0.028) and reoperations (OR, 4.45; 95% CI, 1.5-13.2; p=0.007). Similarly, the presence of an underlying titanium mesh was an independent predictor of wound complications (OR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.1-5.6; p=0.029) and reoperations (OR, 3.40; 95% CI, 1.2-9.7; p=0.020). Both immunosuppressed status (OR, 2.88; 95% CI, 1.2-7.1; p=0.021) and preoperative radiation therapy (OR, 3.34; 95% CI, 1.2-9.7; p=0.022) were risk factors for mortality. Conclusion: Both preoperative radiation and the presence of underlying titanium mesh are independent risk factors for wound site complications and increased reoperation rates following oncologic resection and reconstruction of the scalp. Additionally, preoperative radiation, along with an immunosuppressed state, may predict patient mortality following scalp resection and reconstruction.

Alternative hitting ability index for KBO (한국프로야구에서 타자력 지수 제안)

  • Hong, Chong Sun;Kim, Jae Young;Shin, Dong Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.677-687
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    • 2016
  • Among lots of sabermetric statistics for baseball batters' ability, the wins above replacement (WAR) is the most popular statistic in MLB. However, there exists a difficulty applying WAR to KBO, since KBO data do not have position adjustment, league adjustment and park factor which are essential in calculating WAR. In this paper, using five statistics for both KBO and MLB qualified batters, we propose hitting ability index (HAI), an alternative sabermetric indices to represent batters' ability. Comparing HAI with WAR of MLB batters, we evaluate the validity of HAI and then applied HAI to 2015 KBO data in which HAI is analyzed statistically with respect to different teams, ages, and positions. Moreover, the linear relationship between KBO batter's HAI and their annual salary is discussed. Grouping 46 KBO batters based on confidence region of the regression model for annual salary, we also statistically investigate batter's annual salary in these groups with respect to several factors.

The Correlation of Levels of Serum Lipid, Homocysteine, and Folate with Volumes of Hippocampus, Amygdala, Corpus Callosum, and Thickness of Entorhinal Cortex in Patients with Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment or Dementia of Alzheimer's Type (기억성 경도인지장애 및 알츠하이머 치매 환자에서 해마, 편도체, 뇌들보, 내후각 피질과 혈중 지질, 호모시스테인, 엽산 농도와의 연관성)

  • Lee, Sang Jun;Kim, Tae Hyung;Huh, Lyang;Choi, Seung Eun;Lee, Bong Ju;Kim, Gyung Mee;Lee, Jung Goo;Kim, Hong Dae;Mun, Chi Woong;Kim, Young Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.223-232
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    • 2015
  • Objectives In this study, the authors evaluated the correlation between levels of serum lipid, homocysteine, and folate with volumes of hippocampus, amygdala, corpus callosum, and in patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) or Alzheimer's disease (AD) type. Methods The study recruited patients who visited the dementia clinic of Haeundae Paik Hospital in Korea between March 2010 and June 2014. Among those, patients who had taken the neurocognitive test, brain magnetic resonance imaing, tests for serum lipid, homocysteine, folate, and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotyping and diagnosed with aMCI or AD were included for analysis. Bilateral hippocampus, entorhinal cortex, amygdala and corpus callosum were selected for region of interest (ROI). The cross-sectional relationships between serum lipid, homocysteine, folate and ROI were assessed by partial correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. Results In patients with aMCI, old age (> 80) and APOE ${\varepsilon}4$ carrier were associated with AD [odds ration (OR) : 12.80 ; 95% confidence interval (CI) : 2.25-72.98 and OR : 4.48 ; 95% CI : 1.58-12.67, respectively]. In patients with aMCI or AD, volumes and thickness of ROI were inversely correlated with levels of serum lipid and homocysteine. In multiple linear regression analyses, higher total cholesterol level was related to lower left, right hippocampus volume and left amygdala volume ; higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was related to lower right entorhinal cortex thickness ; higher homocysteine level was related to lower corpus callosum volume. Conclusions Higher serum lipid and homocysteine levels are associated with decreased volume of hippocampus, amygdala, corpus callosum and entorhinal cortex thickness in patients with aMCI or AD. These findings suggest that serum lipid and homocysteine levels are associated with AD as a modifiable risk factor.

Relationship between Blood Stasis and Arterial Stiffness in the Patient with Ischemic Stroke (뇌경색 환자의 어혈변증과 동맥경직도의 관련성 연구)

  • Shin, Won-Jun;Park, Young-Min;Jeong, Dong-Won;Hong, Jin-Woo;Sun, Jong-Joo;Lee, Jun-Woo;Jung, Woo-Sang;Park, Seong-Uk;Moon, Sang-Kwan;Park, Jung-Mi;Ko, Chang-Nam;Cho, Ki-Ho;Kim, Young-Suk
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine
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    • v.27 no.3 s.67
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    • pp.241-250
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    • 2006
  • Backgrounds: Blood stasis is hon as an important pathologic factor for vascular disorder in Oriental medicine. Despite its clinical importance there have been few objective tests for diagnosing blood stasis. Objectives: This study was designed to examine the relationship between blood stasis and arterial stiffness measured by cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI). Methods: The subjects were 104 ischemic stroke patients with onset after 14 days. Their general characteristics, lipid profiles and uric acid were recorded. The degree of arterial stiffness was assessed by CAVI, and blood stasis was evaluated by diagnostic criteria. The data were analyze4 by chi-square test, student t-test, spearman correlation analysis, and pearson correlation analysis. Then, stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis was applied in order to exclude the interactions among several factors. Results: There were significant differences in right, left and higher CAVI between the blood stasis group and the non blood stasis group (p-value<0.01). Age, systolic blood pressure, triglyceride and CAVI had relationships with blood static scores. In multiple logistic regression analysis, the adjusted odds ratio of blood stasis for arterial stiffness with CAVI above 9 were 7.091 (95% confidence interval, $1.641\sim30.638$). Conclusions: The results demonstrated the relationship between blood stasis and arterial stiffness measured by CAVI. Therefore, we suggest that CAVI should be one of the objective tests for diagnosing blood stasis.

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The Factors Causing Change of Lifestyle by the Outcome of Oriental Medical Examination (한방건강검진(韓方建康檢診) 결과(結果)에 따른 생활행동(生活行動) 변화(變化)에 영향(影響)을 미치는 요인(要因))

  • Na Sam-Sik;Kwon So-Hui;Seo Ji-Yeon;Jung Hae-Kyoung;Kim Yoo-Chul;Song Yung-Sun;Jang Du-Seop;Lee Ki-Nam
    • Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.139-150
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    • 2003
  • This study tried to know the chang of lifestyle and the factors causing of lifestyle change by the outcome of oriental medical examination for labors in one of the automobile factories in Jeon Buk area. The results will be helpful to the effective health care for the labors in factory. Oriental medical examination was done 22 times from May 20 to June 19, 2002. The numbers of labor who received oriental medical examination were 531, and 300 questionnaires among them were collected. The results were as follows: 1) General characteristics of examinee for oriental medical examination; total 300 labors, high percentage in age range $31{\sim}45$ years old, mostly married, high percentage of high school in completion of study. High percentages in drinking, smoking, and working hour were less than 1 time per week, non-smoking, and above 10 hours, respectively. High percentages in working year and salary were $11{\sim}15$ years. 2) The degree of lifestyle change by the oriental medical examination had the highest score with consult of oriental medicine doctor, and the lowest score was from moire typography result. 3) The degree of lifestyle change by medical examination was highly influenced by the subject characteristics that were less than 1 time per week for drinking, non-smoking, and less than 10 years of working year. 4) For the lifestyle change by the cognition of subject, the subjects who had high confidence for oriental medical examination, high recognition for oriental medical examination's requirement, high concern for health. effective cognition for early detection of disease, had high degree of lifestyle change. 5) The variables that cause lifestyle change in Sasang constitutional analysis result were early detection of disease, type of smoking, working year, moire typography result, interview for health. The variables that cause lifestyle change in moire typography result were type of drinking, ages, working year, consult for health, moire typography result. The variables that cause lifestyle change in interview with oriental medicine doctor were constitutional analysis and moire typography result.

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Acceleration Test Method for Failure Prediction of the End Cap Contact Region of Sodium Cooled Fast Reactor Fuel Rod (소듐냉각 고속로 연료봉단의 접촉부 손상예측을 위한 가속시험 방법)

  • Kim, Hyung-Kyu;Lee, Young-Ho;Lee, Hyun-Seung;Lee, Kang-Hee
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.375-380
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    • 2017
  • This paper reports the results of an acceleration test to predict the contact-induced failure that could occur at the cylinder-to-hole joint for the fuel rod of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). To incorporate the fuel life of the SFR currently under development at KAERI (around 35,000 h), the acceleration test method of reliability engineering was adopted in this work. A finite element method was used to evaluate the flow-induced vibration frequency and amplitude for the test parameter values. Five specimens were tested. The failure criterion during the life of the SFR fuel was applied. The S-N curve of the HT-9, the material of concern, was used to obtain the acceleration factor. As a result, a test time of 16.5 h was obtained for each specimen. It was concluded that the $B_{0.004}$ life would be guaranteed for the SFR fuel rods with 99% confidence if no failure was observed at any of the contact surfaces of the five specimens.

Anti-Müllerian hormone levels as a predictor of clinical pregnancy in in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection-embryo transfer cycles in patients over 40 years of age

  • Park, Hyun Jong;Lyu, Sang Woo;Seok, Hyun Ha;Yoon, Tae Ki;Lee, Woo Sik
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.143-148
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    • 2015
  • Objective: The aim of the current study was to determine the predictive value of anti-$M{\ddot{u}}llerian$ hormone (AMH) levels for pregnancy outcomes in patients over 40 years of age who underwent in vitro fertilization or intracytoplasmic sperm injection-embryo transfer (IVF/ICSI-ET) cycles. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 188 women aged 40 to 44 years who underwent IVF/ICSI-fresh ET cycles due to unexplained infertility in the fertility center of CHA Gangnam Medical Center. Patients were divided into group A, with AMH levels <1.0 ng/mL (n=97), and group B, with AMH levels ${\geq}1.0ng/mL$ (n=91). We compared the clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) in the two groups and performed logistic regression analysis to identify factors that had a significant effect on the CPR. Results: The CPR was significantly lower in group A than group B (7.2% vs. 24.2%, p<0.001). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, AMH levels were the only factor that had a significant impact on the CPR (odds ratio, 1.510; 95% confidence interval, 1.172-1.947). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for AMH levels as a predictor of the CPR was 0.721. When the cut-off level of AMH was set at 1.90 ng/ mL, the CPR was 6.731-fold higher in the group with AMH levels ${\geq}1.90ng/mL$ than in the group with AMH levels <1.90 ng/mL (p<0.001). Conclusion: Our study showed that AMH levels were predictive of clinical pregnancy in infertility patients over 40 years of age. Further prospective studies should be conducted to validate the predictive capability of AMH levels for the outcome of clinical pregnancy.

Rare Helicobacter pylori Infection May Explain Low Stomach Cancer Incidence: Ecological Observations in Bali, Indonesia

  • Tanaka, Tsutomu;Mulyadi, I Ketut;Moestikaningsih, Moestikaningsih;Oka, Tjok Gede;Soeripto, Soeripto;Triningsih, FX Ediati;Triyono, Teguh;Heriyanto, Didik Setyo;Hosono, Akihiro;Suzuki, Sadao;Tokudome, Shinkan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.979-984
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    • 2016
  • The incidence rate of stomach cancer in Bali, Indonesia, is estimated to be strikingly lower than that in Japan. We conducted an on-site ecological study to investigate the association between the stomach cancer incidence and Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection. Recruiting 291 healthy persons (136 men and 155 women) from the general population in Bali, Indonesia, we conducted a urea breath test (UBT) to examine H. pylori infection, along with a pepsinogen test to detect chronic atrophic gastritis and urine analysis to estimate sodium and potassium excretion. UBT positivities were 9% (2-15, 95% confidence interval) for men and 7% (1-12) for women, and positive cases for H. pylori IgG antibodies were 1% (0-3) for men and 3% (0-5) for women, significantly lower than the respective values in Japan. Positive pepsinogen tests in Bali were 0% (0-0) for men and 1% (0-4) for women, also significantly lower than the Japanese figures. Computed values for daily salt excretion were $13.3{\pm}4.1g$ (mean${\pm}$SD) for men and $11.1{\pm}3.1g$ for women, as high as corresponding Japanese consumption values. Moreover, the estimated potassium excretion was $3.2{\pm}0.7g$ for men and $2.8{\pm}0.6g$ for women in Bali, significantly higher than the figures in Japan. There were no associations across genetic polymorphisms of IL-beta, TNF-alpha, and PTPN11 with UBT positivity. The low incidence of stomach cancer in Bali may thus mainly be due to the rare H. pylori infection. Namely, the bacterium infection seems to be a critical factor for gastric cancer rather than host or other environmental factors.