• Title/Summary/Keyword: climate modeling

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Modeling the potential climate change-induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus (Acari: Ixodidae) tick distribution in semi-arid areas of Raya Azebo district, Northern Ethiopia

  • Hadgu, Meseret;Menghistu, Habtamu Taddele;Girma, Atkilt;Abrha, Haftu;Hagos, Haftom
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.427-437
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    • 2019
  • Background: Climate change is believed to be continuously affecting ticks by influencing their habitat suitability. However, we attempted to model the climate change-induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus distribution considering the major environmental factors that would influence the tick. Therefore, 50 tick occuance points were taken to model the potential distribution using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) software and 19 climatic variables, taking into account the ability for future climatic change under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, were used. Results: MaxEnt model performance was tested and found with the AUC value of 0.99 which indicates excellent goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy. Current models predict increased temperatures, both in the mid and end terms together with possible changes of other climatic factors like precipitation which may lead to higher tick-borne disease risks associated with expansion of the range of the targeted tick distribution. Distribution maps were constructed for the current, 2050, and 2070 for the two greenhouse gas scenarios and the most dramatic scenario; RCP 8.5 produced the highest increase probable distribution range. Conclusions: The future potential distribution of the genus Rhipicephalus show potential expansion to the new areas due to the future climatic suitability increase. These results indicate that the genus population of the targeted tick could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking; increased incidence of tick-borne diseases poses further risk which can affect cattle production and productivity, thereby affecting the livelihood of smallholding farmers. Therefore, it is recommended to implement climate change adaptation practices to minimize the impacts.

Academic Development Status of Climate Dynamics in Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회 기후역학 분야 학술 발전 현황)

  • Soon-Il An;Sang-Wook Yeh;Kyong-Hwan Seo;Jong-Seong Kug;Baek-Min Kim;Daehyun Kim
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.125-154
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    • 2023
  • Since the Korean Meteorological Society was organized in 1963, the climate dynamics fields have been made remarkable progress. Here, we documented the academic developments in the area of climate dynamics performed by members of Korean Meteorological Society, based on studies that have been published mainly in the Journal of Korean Meteorological Society, Atmosphere, and Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. In these journals, the fundamental principles of typical ocean-atmosphere climatic phenomena such as El Niño, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, their modeling, prediction, and its impact, are being conducted by members of Korean Meteorological Society. Recently, research has been expanded to almost all climatic factors including cryosphere and biosphere, as well as areas from a global perspective, not limited to one region. In addition, research using an artificial intelligence (AI), which can be called a cutting-edge field, has been actively conducted. In this paper, topics including intra-seasonal and Madden-Julian Oscillations, East Asian summer monsoon, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, mid-latitude and polar climate variations and some paleo climate and ecosystem studies, of which driving mechanism, modeling, prediction, and global impact, are particularly documented.

Simulations of Summertime Surface Ozone Over the Korean Peninsula Under IPCC SRES A2 and B1 Scenarios (IPCC SRES A2와 B1 시나리오에 따른 한반도지역의 여름철 지표 오존의 수치모의)

  • Hong, Sung-Chul;Choi, Jin-Young;Song, Chang-Keun;Hong, You-Deog;Lee, Suk-Jo;Lee, Jae-Bum
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.251-263
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    • 2013
  • The surface ozone concentrations changes were investigated in response to climate change over the Korean peninsula for summertime using the global-regional one way coupled Integrated Climate and Air quality Modeling System (ICAMS). The future simulations were conducted under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. The modeling system was applied for four 10-year simulations: 1996~2005 as a present-day case, 2016~2025, 2046~2055, and 2091~2100 as future cases. The results in this study showed that the mean surface ozone concentrations increased up to 0.5~3.3 ppb under the A2, but decreased by 0.1~10.9 ppb under the B1 for the future, respectively. However, its increases were lower than an increase of the average daily maximum 8-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations which was projected to increase by 2.8~6.5 ppb under the A2. The DM8H surface ozone concentrations seem to be therefore far more affected by the climate and emissions changes than mean values. The probability of exceeding 60 ppb was projected to increase by 6~19% under the A2. In the case of B1, its changes were presented with an increase of 2.9% in the 2020s but no occurrence in the 2100s due to the effect of the reduced emissions. Future projection on surface ozone concentrations was generally shown to have almost the similar trend as the emissions of $NO_x$ and NMVOC.

Development of a Weather Prediction Device Using Transformer Models and IoT Techniques

  • Iyapo Kamoru Olarewaju;Kyung Ki Kim
    • Journal of Sensor Science and Technology
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.164-168
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    • 2023
  • Accurate and reliable weather forecasts for temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation using advanced transformer models and IoT are essential in various fields related to global climate change. We propose a novel weather prediction device that integrates state-of-the-art transformer models and IoT techniques to improve prediction accuracy and real-time processing. The proposed system demonstrated high reliability and performance, offering valuable insights for industries and sectors that rely on accurate weather information, including agriculture, transportation, and emergency response planning. The integration of transformer models with the IoT signifies a substantial advancement in weather and climate modeling.

Study of aerosol-cloud interaction phenomena from satellite remote sensing and climate modeling

  • Nakajima, Teruyuki;Higurashi, Akiko;Kawamoto, Kazuaki;Okamoto, Hajime;Takemura, Toshihiko;Kuroda, Shunsuke
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 1999.11a
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    • pp.100-102
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    • 1999
  • We have analyzed AVHRR global data set for obtaining aerosol and cloud microphysical parameters, i. e., optical thickness and size index of particle polydispersions. From the results, it is found that the cloud optical thickness increases with increasing aerosol column number, which seems to be caused mainly by decreasing cloud particle radius, The cloud liquid water path was observed to be relatively constant without a significant dependence on the aerosol number. Further comparison of the satellite results with a general circulation model simulation.

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Policy Studies for Advancing Aerosol Research on Climate Change in Korea (기후변화 대응 에어러솔 연구 발전을 위한 정책 연구)

  • Kim, Jiyoung;Lee, YongSeob;Shin, Im Chul
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.49-61
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    • 2010
  • Atmospheric aerosols play a crucial role for changing climate, resulting in a wide range of uncertainty for future climate prediction. In this paper we review current international research status and trend of climate-related aerosol science. There have been carried out a number of campaigns (including ACE-Asia, TRACE-P, ABC, and so on) and special experiments with some modeling studies over Korea, East Asia, and the Northwestern Pacific to characterize the various properties (physical, chemical, optical, and radiative) of Asian aerosols and evaluate their climate forcing impacts. But some parts of the aerosol research may need to be improved, advanced, or newly launched. Especially, a chemical transport model (CTM) embedded by a general circulation model (GCM) should be developed by the national scientific community with a high research priority, actively collaborating with international community in order to estimate direct and indirect global radiative forcing due to anthropogenic and natural aerosols.

Projection of Future Changes in Drought Characteristics in Korea Peninsula Using Effective Drought Index (유효가뭄지수(EDI)를 이용한 한반도 미래 가뭄 특성 전망)

  • Gwak, Yongseok;Cho, Jaepil;Jung, Imgook;Kim, Dowoo;Jang, Sangmin
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.31-45
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    • 2018
  • This study implemented the prediction of drought properties (number of drought events, intensity, duration) using the user-oriented systematical procedures of downscaling climate change scenarios based the multiple global climate models (GCMs), AIMS (APCC Integrated Modeling Solution) program. The drought properties were defined and estimated with Effective Drought Index (EDI). The optimal 10 models among 29 GCMs were selected, by the estimation of the spatial and temporal reproducibility about the five climate change indices related with precipitation. In addition, Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) as the downscaling technique is much better in describing the observed precipitation events than Spatial Disaggregation Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM). Even though the procedure was systematically applied, there are still limitations in describing the observed spatial precipitation properties well due to the offset of spatial variability in multi-model ensemble (MME) analysis. As a result, the farther into the future, the duration and the number of drought generation will be decreased, while the intensity of drought will be increased. Regionally, the drought at the central regions of the Korean Peninsula is expected to be mitigated, while that at the southern regions are expected to be severe.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT OVER INDIAN AGRICULTURE - A SPATIAL MODELING APPROACH

  • Priya, Satya;Shibasaki, Ryosuke
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 1999.11a
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 1999
  • The large-scale distribution of crops Is usually determined by climate. We present the results of a climate-crop prediction based on spatial bio-physical process model approach, implemented in a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment using several regional and global agriculture-environmental databases. The model utilizes daily climate data like temperature, rainfall, solar radiation being generated stocastically by in-built model weather generator to determine the daily biomass and finally the crop yield. Crops are characterized by their specific growing period requirements, photosynthesis, respiration properties and harvesting index properties. Temperature and radiation during the growing period controls the development of each crop. The model simulates geographic/spatial distribution of climate by which a crop-growing belt can also be determined. The model takes both irrigated and non-irrigated area crop productivity into account and the potential increase in productivity by the technical means like mechanization is not considered. All the management input given at the base year 1995 was kept same for the next twenty-year changes until 2015. The simulated distributions of crops under current climatic conditions coincide largely with the current agricultural or specific crop growing regions. Simulation with assumed weather generated derived climate change scenario illustrate changes in the agricultural potential. There are large regional differences in the response across the country. The north-south and east-west regions responded differently with projected climate changes with increased and decreased productivity depending upon the crops and scenarios separately. When water was limiting or facilitating as non-irrigated and irrigated area crop-production effects of temperature rise and higher $CO_2$ levels were different depending on the crops and accordingly their production. Rise in temperature led to yield reduction in case of maize and rice whereas a gain was observed for wheat crop, doubled $CO_2$ concentration enhanced yield for all crops and their several combinations behaved differently with increase or decrease in yields. Finally, with this spatial modeling approach we succeeded in quantifying the crop productivity which may bring regional disparities under the different climatic scenarios where one region may become better off and the other may go worse off.

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An Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on Nakdong River Environmental Flow (낙동강 유역 환경유량에 대한 기후변화의 영향 분석)

  • Lee, A Yeon;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.273-285
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    • 2011
  • This study describes the modeling of climate change impact on runoff across southeast Korea using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model TANK and assesses the results using the concept of environmental flows developed by International Water Management Institute. The future climate time series is obtained by scaling the historical series, informed by 4 global climate models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to reflect a $4.0^{\circ}C$ increase at most in average surface air temperature and 31.7% increase at most in annual precipitation, using the spatio-temporal changing factor method that considers changes in the future mean seasonal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration as well as in the daily rainfall distribution. Although the simulation results from different global circulation models and greenhouse emission scenarios indicate different responses in flows to the climate change, the majority of the modeling results show that there will be more runoff in southeast Korea in the future. However, there is substantial uncertainty, with the results ranging from a 5.82% decrease to a 48.15% increase in the mean annual runoff averaged across the study area according to the corresponding climate change scenarios. We then assess the hydrologic perturbations based on the comparison between present and future flow duration curves suggested by IMWI. As a result, the effect of hydrologic perturbation on aquatic ecosystems may be significant at several locations of the Nakdong river main stream in dry season.