• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.177-177
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• 2023

The impacts of dams on transboundary flow are complex and challenging to project and manage, given the potential moderating influence of a broad range of anthropogenic and natural factors. This study presents a global meta-analysis of 168 studies that examines the effect magnitude of dams on downstream seasonal, annual flow, and hydrological extremes risk on 39 hotspot transboundary river basins. The study also evaluates the impact of 13 factors, such as climate, basin characteristics, dams' design and types, level of transboundary cooperation, and socioeconomic indicators, on the heterogeneity of outcomes. The findings reveal that moderators significantly influence the impact of dams on downstream flow, leading to considerable heterogeneity in outcomes. Transboundary cooperation emerges as the key factor that determines the severity of dams' effect on both dry and wet season's flows at a significance level of 0.01 to 0.05, respectively. Specifically, the presence of water-supply and irrigation dams has a significant (0.01) moderating effect on dry-season flow across basins with high transboundary cooperation. In contrast, for wet-season flow, the basin's vulnerability to climate extremes is associated with a large negative effect size. The various moderators have varying degrees of influence on the heterogeneity of outcomes, with the aridity index, population density, GDP, and risk level of hydro-political tension being the most significant factors for dry-season flow, and the risk level of hydro-political tension and basin vulnerability to climate extremes being the most significant for wet-season flow. The results suggest that transboundary cooperation is crucial for managing the impacts of dams on downstream flow, and that various other factors, such as climate, basin characteristics, and socioeconomic indicators, have significant moderating effects on the outcomes. Thus, context-specific approaches are necessary when predicting and managing the impacts of dams on transboundary flow.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2014.10a
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• pp.1-24
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• 2014

This study uses geo-spatial crop modeling to quantify the biophysical impact of weather extremes. More specifically, the study analyzes the weather extreme which affected maize production in the USA in 2012; it also estimates the effect of a similar weather extreme in 2050, using future climate scenarios. The secondary impact of the weather extreme on food security in the developing world is also assessed using trend analysis. Many studies have reported on the significant reduction in maize production in the USA due to the extreme weather event (combined heat wave and drought) that occurred in 2012. However, most of these studies focused on yield and did not assess the potential effect of weather extremes on food prices and security. The overall goal of this study was to use geo-spatial crop modeling and trend analysis to quantify the impact of weather extremes on both yield and, followed food security in the developing world. We used historical weather data for severe extreme events that have occurred in the USA. The data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In addition we used five climate scenarios: the baseline climate which is typical of the late 20th century (2000s) and four future climate scenarios which involve a combination of two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) and two global circulation models (CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC 3.2). DSSAT 4.5 was combined with GRASS GIS for geo-spatial crop modeling. Simulated maize grain yield across all affected regions in the USA indicates that average grain yield across the USA Corn Belt would decrease by 29% when the weather extremes occur using the baseline climate. If the weather extreme were to occur under the A1B emission scenario in the 2050s, average grain yields would decrease by 38% and 57%, under the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC 3.2 global climate models, respectively. The weather extremes that occurred in the USA in 2012 resulted in a sharp increase in the world maize price. In addition, it likely played a role in the reduction in world maize consumption and trade in 2012/13, compared to 2011/12. The most vulnerable countries to the weather extremes are poor countries with high maize import dependency ratios including those countries in the Caribbean, northern Africa and western Asia. Other vulnerable countries include low-income countries with low import dependency ratios but which cannot afford highly-priced maize. The study also highlighted the pathways through which a weather extreme would affect food security, were it to occur in 2050 under climate change. Some of the policies which could help vulnerable countries counter the negative effects of weather extremes consist of social protection and safety net programs. Medium- to long-term adaptation strategies include increasing world food reserves to a level where they can be used to cover the production losses brought by weather extremes.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.61-72
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• 2015

In this study, we have investigated monthly changes in temperature extremes in South Korea for the past (1921~2010) and the future (2011~2100). We used seven stations' (Gangneung, Seoul, Incheon, Daegu, Jeonju, Busan, Mokpo) data from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) for the past. For the future we used the closest grid point values to observations from the RCP8.5 scenario of 1 km resolution. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)'s climate extreme indices were employed to quantify the characteristics of temperature extremes change. Temperature extreme indices in summer have increased while those in winter have decreased in the past. The extreme indices are expected to change more rapidly in the future than in the past. The number of frost days (FD) is projected to decrease in the future, and the occurrence period will be shortened by two months at the end of the $21^{st}$ century (2071~2100) compared to the present (1981~2010). The number of hot days (HD) is projected to increase in the future, and the occurrence period is projected to lengthen by two months at the end of the $21^{st}$ century compared to the present. The annual highest temperature and its fluctuation is expected to increase. Accordingly, the heat damage is also expected to increase. The result of this study can be used as an information on damage prevention measures due to temperature extreme events.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.139-139
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• 2021

Flooding events often result from extreme precipitations driven by various climate mechanisms, which are often disregarded in flood risk assessments. To bridge this gap, we propose a climate-mechanism-based flood frequency analysis that accommodates the direct linkage between the dominant climate processes and risk management decisions. Several statistical methods have been utilized in this approach including the Markov Chain analysis, K-nearest neighbor (KNN) resampling approach, and Z-score-based jittering method. After that, the impacts of climate change are associated with the modification of the transition matrix (TM) and the application of the quantile mapping approach. For this study, we have selected the Nam River Basin, South Korea, to consider the heterogeneous impacts of the two climate mechanisms, including the Tropical Cyclone (TC) and non-TCs. Based on our results, while both climate mechanisms have significant impacts on future flood extremes, TCs have been observed to bring more significant and immediate impacts on the flood extremes. The results in this study have proven that the proposed approach can lead to a new insights into future flooding management.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.195-195
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• 2017

The patterns of occurrence of typhoons in North Pacific region are constantly changing with the increase of temperature in sea surface and the occurrence of El Nino and La Nina and changes of their development caused by global warming. In addition, alterations of flow regimes caused by large-scale hydraulic construction projects in the past few years and changes in precipitation patterns caused by climate change have imposed increased stress on hydroecology while the indiscreet utilization of water resources has a negative environmental impact on the water flows in the natural rivers and streams and hydroecological structures. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of altered hydrologic regime on stream and riparian ecosystems that are most vulnerable to climate variability and extremes such as typhoons.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.117-117
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• 2016

The natural hydrologic regime is intimately tied to the structure and function of stream and riparian ecosystems. Consequently, understanding the nature and extent of perturbations to the hydrologic regime, stemming from episodic-to-seasonal and longer-term climatic variations, as well as anthropogenic influences is an important starting point for developing an improved understanding of the coupled human-environmental systems. Herein, we pursued to explicate sensitivity of ecologically relevant flow metrics to climate variability and extremes in the five major river basins, Korea.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.23-30
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• 2021

In recent years, hazardous flash flooding has caused deaths and damage to infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. In this paper, our aim is to assess patterns and trends in climate means and extremes affecting flash flood hazards and water resources in Saudi Arabia for the purpose to improve risk assessment for forecast capacity. We would like to examine temperature, precipitation climatology and trend magnitudes at surface stations in Saudi Arabia. Based on the assessment climate patterns maps and trends are accurately used to identify synoptic situations and tele-connections associated with flash flood risk. We also study local and regional changes in hydro-meteorological extremes over recent decades through new applications of statistical methods to weather station data and remote sensing based precipitation products; and develop remote sensing based high-resolution precipitation products that can aid to develop flash flood guidance system for the flood-prone areas. A dataset of extreme events has been developed using the multi-decadal station data, the statistical analysis has been performed to identify tele-connection indices, pressure and sea surface temperature patterns most predictive to heavy rainfall. It has been combined with time trends in extreme value occurrence to improve the potential for predicting and rapidly detecting storms. A methodology and algorithms has been developed for providing a well-calibrated precipitation product that can be used in the early warning systems for elevated risk of floods.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.403-417
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• 2014

Increased frequency of climate extremes is another face of climate change confronted by humans, resulting in catastrophic losses in agriculture. While climate extremes take place on many scales, impacts are experienced locally and mitigation tools are a function of local conditions. To address this, agrometeorological early warning systems must be place and location based, incorporating the climate, crop and land attributes at the appropriate scale. Existing services often lack site-specific information on adverse weather and countermeasures relevant to farming activities. Warnings on chronic long term effects of adverse weather or combined effects of two or more weather elements are seldom provided, either. This lecture discusses a field-specific early warning system implemented on a catchment scale agrometeorological service, by which volunteer farmers are provided with face-to-face disaster warnings along with relevant countermeasures. The products are based on core techniques such as scaling down of weather information to a field level and the crop specific risk assessment. Likelihood of a disaster is evaluated by the relative position of current risk on the standardized normal distribution from climatological normal year prepared for 840 catchments in South Korea. A validation study has begun with a 4-year plan for implementing an operational service in Seomjin River Basin, which accommodates over 60,000 farms and orchards. Diverse experiences obtained through this study will certainly be useful in planning and developing the nation-wide disaster early warning system for agricultural sector.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2014.10a
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• pp.25-48
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• 2014

Increased frequency of climate extremes is another face of climate change confronted by humans, resulting in catastrophic losses in agriculture. While climate extremes take place on many scales, impacts are experienced locally and mitigation tools are a function of local conditions. To address this, agrometeorological early warning systems must be place and location based, incorporating the climate, crop and land attributes at the appropriate scale. Existing services often lack site-specific information on adverse weather and countermeasures relevant to farming activities. Warnings on chronic long term effects of adverse weather or combined effects of two or more weather elements are seldom provided, either. This lecture discusses a field-specific early warning system implemented on a catchment scale agrometeorological service, by which volunteer farmers are provided with face-to-face disaster warnings along with relevant countermeasures. The products are based on core techniques such as scaling down of weather information to a field level and the crop specific risk assessment. Likelihood of a disaster is evaluated by the relative position of current risk on the standardized normal distribution from climatological normal year prepared for 840 catchments in South Korea. A validation study has begun with a 4-year plan for implementing an operational service in Seomjin River Basin, which accommodates over 60,000 farms and orchards. Diverse experiences obtained through this study will certainly be useful in planning and developing the nation-wide disaster early warning system for agricultural sector.

• Atmosphere
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.1-20
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• 2023

Holding the longest observation data from April 1904, Busan is one of the essential points to understand the climate variability of the Korean Peninsula without missing data since implementing the modern weather observation of the South Korea. Busan is featured by coastal areas and affected by various climate factors and fluctuations. This study aims to investigate climate variability and changes in climatic variables, extremes, and several weather indexes. The statistically significant change points in daily mean rainfall intensity and temperature were found in 1964 and 1965. Based on the change point detection, 117 years were divided into two periods for daily mean rainfall intensity and temperature, respectively. In the long-term temperature analysis of Busan, the increasing trend of the daily maximum temperature during the period of 1965~2021 was larger than the daily mean temperature and the daily minimum temperature. Applying Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, daily maximum temperature is largely affected by the decadal variability compared to the daily mean and minimum temperature. In addition, the trend of daily precipitation intensity from 1964~2021 shows a value of about 0.50 mm day^-1, suggesting that the rainfall intensity has increased compared to the preceding period. The results in extremes analysis demonstrate that return values of both extreme temperatures and precipitation show higher values in the latter than in the former period, indicating that the intensity of the current extreme phenomenon increases. For Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (effective humidity), increasing (decreasing) trend is significant in Busan with the second (third)-largest change among four stations.