• 농촌계획
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.145-155
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• 2014

Since greenhouse gas emissions increase continuously, the authorities have needed climate change countermeasure for adapting the acceleration of climate change damages. According to "Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth", Korean local governments should have established the implementation plan of climate change adaptation. These guidelines which is the implementation plan of climate change adaptation should be established countermeasure in 7 fields such as Health, Digester/Catastrophe, Agriculture, Forest, Ecosystem, Water Management and Marine/Fisheries. Basically the Korean local governments expose vulnerable financial condition, therefore the authorities might be assessed the vulnerability by local regions and fields, in order to establish an efficient implementation plan of climate change adaptation. Based on this concepts, this research used 3 methods which are LCCGIS, questionnaire survey analysis and analysis of existing data for the multiphasic vulnerable assessment. This study was verified the correlation among 7 elements of climate change vulnerability by 3 analysis methods, in order to respond climate change vulnerability in rural areas, Seocheon-gun. If the regions were evaluated as a vulnerable area by two or more evaluation methods in the results of 3 methods' comparison and evaluation, those areas were selected by vulnerable area. As a result, the vulnerable area of heavy rain and flood was Janghang-eup and Maseo-myeon, the vulnerable area of typhoon was Janghang-eup, Masan-myeon and Seo-myeon. 3 regions (i.e. Janghang-eup, Biin-myeon, Seo-myeon) were vulnerable to coastal flooding, moreover Masan-myeon, Pangyo-myeon and Biin-myeon exposed to vulnerability of landslide. In addition, Pangyo-myeon, Biin-myeon and Masan-myeon was evaluated vulnerable to forest fire, as well as the 3 sites; Masan-myeon, Masan-myeon and Pangyo-myeon was identified vulnerable to ecosystem. Lastly, 3 regions (i.e. Janghang-eup, Masan-myeon and Masan-myeon) showed vulnerable to flood control, additionally Janghang-eup and Seo-myeon was vulnerable to water supply. However, all region was evaluated vulnerable to water quality separately. In a nutshell this paper aims at deriving regions which expose climate change vulnerabilities by multiphasic vulnerable assessment of climate change, and comparing-evaluating the assessments.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.331-348
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• 2013

기후변화로 인해 우리나라는 이상기후 현상의 빈도와 강도가 증가하고 있으며, 이로 인한 재난재해 피해가 급증하고 있다. 취약성 평가는 환경적, 사회적, 경제적 요인에 취약한 지표를 분석하고, 기후변화로 인한 피해를 방지하고, 적응대책을 수립하기 위해 계속적으로 연구되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 가중치 산정 방법인 회귀분석을 활용한 취약성 평가를 실시하였다. 평가는 전국을 대상으로 홍수에 의한 농경지 침식/침하 취약성, 폭염에 의한 건강 취약성, 가뭄에 의한 산불 취약성 평가를 실시하였다. 이를 위해 각 부문별로 규준 별 지표를 선정한 뒤, GIS 프로그램을 통해 지표를 공간자료 형태로 구축하였다. 그 결과, 폭염에 의한 건강 취약성 평가에서는 기후적인 요인의 영향이 큰 것으로 나타났으며, 산불 취약성과 농경지 침식/침하 취약성 평가에서는 인위적인 요인의 영향이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이후 가중치를 적용하지 않은 취약성 평가와 비교를 통하여 회귀분석의 효율성을 분석하였다. 본 연구는 회귀분석 방법이 현실적으로 기후변화 적응 대책을 수립하는데 효율성이 있다고 제시하며, 향후 취약성 평가에 활용될 가능성이 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국관개배수논문집
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.33-42
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• 2011

Climate change has impacts on not only the average temperature rise but also the intensity and frequency of extreme events such as flood and drought. It is also expected that the damages on agricultural infrastructure will be increased resulting from increased rainfall intensity and frequency caused by climate change. To strengthen the climate change adaptation capacity, it is necessary to identify the vulnerability of a given society's physical infrastructures and to develop appropriate adaptation strategies with infrastructure management because generally facilities related to human settlements are vulnerable to climate changes and establishing an adaptive public infrastructure would reduce the damages and the repair cost. Therefore, development of mitigation strategies for agricultural infrastructure against climatic hazard is very important, but there are few studies on agricultural infrastructure vulnerability assessment and adaptation strategies. The concept of vulnerability, however, is difficult to functionally define due to the fact that vulnerability itself includes many aspects (biological, socioeconomic, etc.) in various sectors. As such, much research on vulnerability has used indicators which are useful for standardization and aggregation. In this study, for the vulnerability assessment for agricultural infrastructure, 3 categories of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation capacity were defined which are composed of 16 sub-categories and 49 proxy variables. Database for each proxy variables was established based on local administrative province. Future studies are required to define the weighting factor and standardization method to calculate the vulnerability indicator for agricultural infrastructure against climate change.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.111-121
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• 2017

Objectives: In this study, an analysis was performed on local government adaptation plans for climate change focusing on the health sector. The limitations of past study results have been summarized and new research subjects for preparing for the advanced second period (2018-2022) of the local government adaptation plan for climate change have been suggested. Methods: First, a review of the literature related to vulnerability assessment and adaptation plans was performed. Next, a comparison among the 16 metropolitan governments' vulnerability assessment results and adaptation plans was made. Lastly, a classification of the adaptation policy and budgets to compare with their real budget amounts was performed. Results: The results show that there is a categorizing discrepancy between vulnerability assessment and adaptation policy. In addition, their adaptation budget amounts turned out to be too large in comparison with the actual budget amounts. Conclusion: The first period (2013-2017) local government adaptation plans for climate change had some limitations. This is because there was a rapid driving force for establishing adaptation plans under the green growth strategy in Korea. Now, we are confronting a risk of adaptation to climate change. By expanding this approach, the government would be able to set up a detailed policy to improve the plans during the second period.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2013

본 연구는 시흥시의 기후변화에 대한 영향을 최소화하고, 시흥시 기후변화 대응계획을 수립하기 위한 연구로 시흥시 15개 동을 대상으로 취약성 평가를 실시하였다. 본 연구에서는 기후노출, 민감도, 적응능력 3가지 지표를 활용하여 지자체의 기후변화 취약성을 분석하였으며, 각각 지표별로 선정된 대리변수들을 활용하였다. 기후노출 지표 값 계산을 위해 기상청 기후변화정보센터에서 제공하는 전자기후도의 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways) 남한상세 시나리오를 활용해서 시흥시의 기상자료를 활용하였고, 미래에도 이러한 추세가 지속할 것이라는 가정을 통해 분석하였다. 시흥시 취약성 평가결과, 시흥시는 풍수해 및 집중호우 시 도로와 농경지의 침수에 취약하고, 여름철 폭염으로 인한 건강 영향에 주의가 필요한 것으로 나타났다. 기후변화 영향은 도시의 대응능력에 따라 피해규모와 크기가 다른 만큼 영향 파악과 취약성 분석을 통해, 대책을 마련하는 연구가 필요하다. 본 시흥시 취약성 평가 연구는 시흥시의 기후변화 대응계획에 활용하고, 그에 따른 정책의 우선순위를 판단할 때 참고자료로 활용할 수 있고, 전국 228개 기초지자체에서 기후변화에 대응하기 위한 취약성 평가 연구를 진행하는 데 도움을 줄 것으로 기대한다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.21-30
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 홍수, 가뭄, 물관리 등 수자원 분야 취약성을 규준(criteria) 및 지표(indicators)를 활용하여 평가하는 방법을 제시하였다. 제시된 방법을 통해 전국 및 지역 단위의 취약성 평가를 실시하였다. 또한, 평가 규모별 적정 유역 크기에 대한 방안도 아울러 제시하였다. 수자원 취약성 평가에 이용한 규준은 크게 평가 대상지의 민감도, 기후에의 노출, 기후변화에 대한 적응력으로 분류할 수 있으며, 각 규준을 지표로 계량화 및 표준화하여 취약성 평가에 반영한다. 기후변화에 대한 수자원 분야의 취약성은 일반적으로 시간이 갈수록 증가하는 것으로 평가되었다. 평가 대상지의 유역 규모는 국가 차원의 취약성 평가는 대유역을 기준으로 설정하는 것이 유의하며, 지역 차원의 평가는 소유역을 기준이 적절함을 알 수 있었다.

• 농촌계획
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.47-54
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• 2013

Climate change is the most direct threatening factors in sustaining agricultural productivity. It is necessary to reduce the damages from the natural hazards such as flood, drought, typhoons, and snowstorms caused by climate change. Through the vulnerability assessment to adapt the climate change, it is possible to analyze the priority, feasibility, effect of the reduction policy. For the vulnerability assessment, broad amount of weather data for each meterological station are required. Making the database management system for the meteorologic data could troubleshoot of the difficulties lie in handling and processing the weather data. In this study, we generated the meteorologic data retrieval system (MetSystem) for climate change vulnerability assessment. The user interface of MetSystem was implemented in the web-browser so as to access to a database server at any time and place, and it provides different query executions according to the criteria of meteorologic stations, temporal range, meteorologic items, statistics, and range of values, as well as the function of exporting to Excel format (*.xls). The developed system is expected that it will make it easier to try different analyses of vulnerability to natural hazards by the simple access to meteorologic database and the extensive search functions.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.110-119
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• 2007

This study's objects are to predict distribution and to assess vulnerability of sub-alpine vegetations in the Korean peninsula for climate change using various climate models. This study validates relationship between sub-alpine vegetations and environmental factors using Pearson correlation analysis. Then, the future distribution of sub-alpine vegetations are predicted by a logistic regression. The major findings in this study are; First, spring mean temperature (March-May), total precipitation, elevation and warmth index are highly influencing factors to the distribution of sub-alpine vegetations. Second, the sub-alpine vegetations will be disappeared in South Korea and concentrated around Baekdu Mountain in North Korea. North Korea is predicted to have serious impact of climate change because temperature will be increased higher than in South Korea. The study findings concluded that the assessment of the future vulnerability of sub-alpine vegetations to climate change are significant.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.165-178
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• 2014

기후변화에 대처하기 위하여 2015년부터 국가 및 광역지자체와 더불어 기초지자체에서도 기후변화 적응대책을 의무적으로 수립하여야 한다. 적응대책을 수립하기 위해 우선적으로 취약성 분석이 선행되어야 하며, 원활한 취약성 평가를 위하여 취약성 평가도구인 LCCGIS를 개발하고 보급하였다. 현재 대부분의 기초지자체에서는 LCCGIS를 적극적으로 활용하고 있으나, LCCGIS의 경우, 대부분의 평가지표의 값이 동일한 값이 적용되고 있어 평가결과의 편이가 상당하다. 본 연구에서는 LCCGIS를 최대한 활용하여 취약성 평가 결과를 조금이라도 지역적 여건을 반영한 결과로 도출할 수 있는 방법으로, 우선적으로 해당 지자체에서 확보 가능한 읍면동 자료를 확보하고, 다음으로 미확보된 지표에 대해서는 최대한 유사성을 가진 해당기초지자체의 읍면동 자료로 대체하는 방법을 소개하였다. 취약성 평가는 향후 일어날지도 모르는 상황에 어느 정도 취약할 것인지를 평가해야 하기 때문에, 연구자의 주관적인 견해가 포함될 우려가 상당히 많으므로, 최대한 객관적인 지표의 선정, 현재 확보할 수 있는 자료 수준 파악, 지역의 여건에 따라 지표내용의 변경 등에 있어서 객관성을 유지하고자 노력할 필요가 있다. 결론적으로 보완된 취약성평가 결과는 기후변화적응 대책을 수립하기 위한 중요한 선행과제로서, 본 연구의 결과는 향후 LCCGIS를 활용한 취약성 평가 결과의 신뢰성을 제고하고, 지역적 특성이 반영된 기후변화적응 세부시행계획의 수립이 이루어지도록 방향을 설정하는데 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.147-157
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• 2013

Rice is a main crop and rice field is the most important farmland in Korea. This study was conducted to propose the methodology assessing impact and vulnerability on rice production by climate change at the regional and national level in Korea. We evaluated a vulnerability of rice paddy according to the outbreak of a main disease and pest of a rice plant. As results, Jeju-do, Gyeongsangnam-do, and Jeollanam-do were more vulnerable area than others. In contrast, the southern central region including Gyeonggi-do was less vulnerable than others. The vulnerable index was significantly higher in 2050s (0.5589) than in present (0.3500). This result showed that the vulnerable to the disease and pest enlarge in the future. The adaptive capacity highly contributed to the vulnerability assessment index. The daily maximum temperature of June and the daily average temperature from May to August also contributed the climate exposure index. The area of occurring sheath blight, rice leaf blast and striped rice borer was related to the system sensitivity index. The ability of water supply (readjustment area of arable land per paddy field area) and rice production technique (rice yield per hectare) were the highly contributed variables to the adaption capacity index.