• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.37 no.8
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• pp.631-641
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• 2004

The objective of this study is to test the applicability of SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Process) on Soyanggang-dam watershed. SLURP model is a conceptual semi-distributed form model that can be used to examine irrigation plan and the effects of proposed changes in water management within a basin or to see what effects external factors such as climate change or changing land cover might have on various water users. Topographical parameters were derived from DEM using TOPAZ and SLURPAZ. Monthly NDVIs were calculated from multi-temporal NOAA/AVHRR images during four years (1998 ∼ 2001). Weather elements (dew-point temperature, solar radiation, maximum/minimum temperature and relative humidify) were obtained from five meteorological stations within and near the study area. To simulate daily hydrograph during 1998 ∼ 2001, the model parameters of each land cover class were optimized by sensitivity analysis and SCE-UA method. Test result of SLURP was summarized by various statistics method (WMO volume error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, mean error and coefficient of variation).

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.9
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• pp.705-718
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• 2021

Climate change has a significant impact on vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the possibility of ecological drought was investigated using satellite remote sensing data. First, the Vegetation Health Index was estimated from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Land Surface Temperature provided by MODIS. Then, a joint probability model was constructed to estimate the possibility of vegetation-related drought in various precipitation/evaporation scenarios in forest areas around 60 major ASOS sites of the Meteorological Administration located throughout Korea. The results of this study show the risk pattern of drought related to forest vegetation under conditions of low atmospheric moisture supply or high atmospheric moisture demand. It also identifies the sensitivity of drought risks associated with forest vegetation under various meterological drought conditions. These findings provide insights for decision makers to assess drought risk and develop drought mitigation strategies related to forest vegetation in a warming era.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.516-516
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• 2016

기후변화는 농업생산량 감소와 식량 안보 문제와 같이 농업에 심각한 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 또한 기존의 농업수리 및 관개배수 시설 운영에 영향을 줄 수 있다. 따라서 지속가능한 농업 수자원 관리를 위해서는 기후변화의 영향을 고려한 장기적인 계획 수립이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 논벼 지역의 설계용수량의 확률론적 분석을 통한 논벼 필요수량 및 설계용수량에 대한 기후변화영향 평가를 실시하였다. 이를 위해서 본 연구에서는 23개 GCM의 36개 산출물을 활용하여 Multi-model ensemble 구축하였다. 먼저 GCM별 증발산량과 유효우량을 산정한 결과 중부지역에서는 IPSL-CM5A 모델의 기후변화자료를 활용할 경우 증발산량과 유효우량이 타 GCM 모델들과 비하여 크게 산정되었다. 남부지역에서는 CanESM2 모델을 적용할 경우 가장 많은 증발산량과 유효우량이 모의되는 것으로 나타났다. 이처럼 GCM별로 다양한 결과가 모의되기 때문에 농업시설 설계에 적용되는 설계용수량의 경우 안전성을 위하여 Multi-GCM models을 활용할 필요가 있다. Multi-model ensemble의 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5 시나리오를 적용한 결과, 모든 경우에서 1995s(1981-2014)에 비해 설계용수량은 점차적으로 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 평균 증가율은 RCP 4.5에서 중부지역이 9.4%, 남부지역이 6.0% 증가하는 것으로 나타난 반면, RCP 8.5에서는 중부지역이 11.1%, 남부지역이 8.2% 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 여러 GCM 산출물간의 불확실성은 RCP 4.5보다는 RCP 8.5 시나리오가, 중부 지역보다는 남부 지역이, 논벼 증발산량 보다는 유효우량이 더 큰 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구는 향후 미래 가뭄 위험성을 최소화하기 위한 농업 수자원관리 전략수립에 활용될 수 있을 것이다. 또한 본 연구결과는 기후변화 영향 평가에 있어서 적합한 GCM 자료를 선택하는데 있어, 불확실성을 가늠할 수 있는 유용한 척도로 이용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.153-165
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• 2014

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology is recognizing one of method responding the climate change with reduction of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. In Korea, due to its geological characteristics, sub-seabed geological $CO_2$ storage is regarded as more practical approach than on-land storage under the goal of its deployment. However, concerns on potential $CO_2$ leakage and relevant acidification issue in the marine environment can be an important subject in recently increasing sub-seabed geological $CO_2$ storage sites. In the present study effect data from literatures were collected in order to conduct an effect assessment of elevated $CO_2$ levels in marine environments using a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) various marine organisms such as microbe, crustacean, echinoderm, mollusc and fish. Results from literatures using domestic species were compared to those from foreign literatures to evaluate the reliability of the effect levels of each biological group and end-point. Ecological effect guidelines through estimating level of pH variation (${\delta}pH$) to adversely affect 5 and 50% of tested organisms, HC5 and HC50, were determined using SSD of marine organisms exposed to the $CO_2$-induced acidification. Estimated HC5 as ${\delta}pH$ of 0.137 can be used as only interim quality guideline possibly with adequate assessment factor. In the future, the current interim guideline as HC5 of ${\delta}pH$ in this study will look forward to compensate with supplement of ecotoxicological data reflecting various trophic levels and indigenous species.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.95-106
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• 2010

The performance of Community Land Model version 3.5 - Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM) was evaluated through a comparison with the observation over temperate deciduous forest in Gwangneung, Korea. Influence of plant phenology, composition of plant functional type, and climate variability on carbon exchanges was also examined through sensitivity test. To get equilibrium carbon storage, the model was run for 400 years driven by the observed atmospheric data at the deciduous forest of the year 2006. We run the model for 2006 with the equilibrium carbon storage at Gwangneung forest and compared the model output with the observation. A comparison of leaf area index (LAI) between the model and observation indicated that the simulated phenology poorly represented the timing of budburst, leaf-fall, and evolution of LAI. Senescence of the phenology was delayed about four weeks and the simulated maximum LAI (of 5.8 $m^2$ $m^{-2}$) was greater than the observed value (of 4.5 $m^2$ $m^{-2}$). The overestimated LAI contributed to overestimation of both gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration $(R_e)$ through increased photosynthesis and foliar autotropic respiration $(R_a)$, respectively. Despite the discrepancy between the simulated and observed LAI, the simulated tree carbon storage amounts were comparable with the reported values at the site. Change in plant phenology from the simulated to the observed reduced more than six weeks of the plant growth period, resulting in the decreased amount of GPP and $R_e$. These values, however, were still higher (~10% of GPP and 40% of $R_e$) than the observed values. The effect of change in plant functional type composition (from dominant temperate deciduous forest to the coexistence of temperate deciduous and needle leaf forests) on the estimated amount of GPP and $R_e$ was marginal. The influence of climate variability on carbon storage amounts was not significant. The simulated inter-annual variation of GPP and $R_e$ from 1994 to 2003 depended on annual mean air temperature and total radiation but not on precipitation. Other deficiencies of CLM3.5-DGVM have been discussed.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.93-101
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• 2015

This study was conducted to analyze the relationship between tree-ring growth of Quercus acutissima and climatic variables by dendroclimatological method. Annual tree-ring growth data of Quercus acutissima collected by the $5^{th}$ National Forest Inventory (NFI5) were organized to analyze the spatial distribution of the species growth pattern. To explain the relationship between tree-ring growth of Quercus acutissima and climatic variables, monthly temperature and precipitation data from 1950 to 2010 were compared with tree-ring growth data for each county. When tree-ring growth data were analyzed through cluster analysis based on similarity of climatic conditions, four clusters were identified. In addition, index chronology of Quercus acutissima for each cluster was produced through cross-dating and standardization procedures. The adequacy of index chronologies was tested using basic statistics such as mean sensitivity, auto correlation, signal to noise ratio, and expressed population signal of annual tree-ring growth. Response function analysis was conducted to reveal the relationship between tree-ring growth and climatic variables for each cluster. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for estimating local growth characteristics of Quercus acutissima and for predicting changes in tree growth patterns caused by climate change.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.1126-1139
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• 2014

World is experiencing abnormal weather caused by urbanization and industrialization increasing greenhouse gas and one of these phenomenon domestically happening is flood and drought. The increase of green-house gases is due to urbanization and industrialization acceleration which are causing abnormal climate changes such as the El Nino and a La Nina phenomenon. It is expected that there will be many difficulties in water management, especially considering the topography and seasonal circumstances in Korea. Unlike in the past, a variety of water conservation initiatives have been undertaken like the river-management flow and water capacity expansion projects. To meet the increasing demand for water resources, new environmentally-friendly small and medium-sized dams have been built. Therefore, the development of a new paradigm for water resources management is essential. This study shows that additional security is needed for potential water resources through diversion tunnels and is very important to consider for future water supplies and situations. Using RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 in representative concentration pathway climate change scenario, specific hydrologic data of study basin was produced to analyze past observed basin rainfall tendency which showed both scenario 5%~9% range increase in rainfall. Through sensitivity analysis using objective function, population in highest goodness was 1000 and cross rate was 80%. In conclusion, it is expected that the results from this study will help to make long-term and stable water supply plans by using the potential water resource evaluation model which was applied in this study.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.46-52
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• 2017

Sediment exchange in river has been affected by artificial changes such as dredging and abnormal climate changes like intense rainfall. Over last decades in Korea, there were many constructions, restoration or rehabilitation in rivers. Therefore, deposition and erosion become more actively occurred than before, which may threaten the river safety such as flood defense. For safety's sake, the dredging of river bed, which is considered as the most typical measure, has been increased to extend hydraulic conveyance compared with previous conditions. However, since it might change the sediment mechanism, there would be another risk at which unexpected side effects such as headward erosion could be occurred. Particularly, sedimentation at abrupt expansion region is able to lead to hydraulic characteristics like water elevation in the upstream region in the beginning of dredging, which, however, has been barely studied in this field. Therefore in this study, the relationship between sediment mechanism at dredging section and hydraulic characteristics in upstream region were presented through numerical simulations in the idealized abruptly widen channel using Delft3D. The ideal channel of 2,000 m length with each side angle of 45 degrees at abruptly widen expansion region was employed to consider the sediment angle of repose. The sensitivity analysis was performed on the dimensionless factors consisted of upstream and downstream depths($h_u$, $h_d$), width($w_u$, $w_d$), water level(H), flow rate(Q) and discharge of sediment($Q_s$). And the sedimentation amount at dredging and the upstream hydraulic characteristics were investigated through that analysis. It showed that $h_d/h_u$, $H/h_u$ and $w_d/w_u$ were more influential in sequence of effect on sedimentation amount, while $h_d/h_u$, $w_d/w_u$ and $H/h_u$ on upstream region. It means that $h_d/h_u$ was revealed as the most significant factors on sedimentation, also it would most highly affect the rising of water level upstream.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.419-419
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• 2011

이상호우, 사막화, 빙하융해, 생태계 먹이사슬 변화, 이상기온 등 기후변화의 행태는 지구 곳곳에서 다양하게 발발되고 있으며 그로인해 발생되는 인적 물적 피해가 심각하다. 1996년 집중호우에 의한 연천댐체 파괴, 2002년 8월의 낙동강 유역 장기홍수, 2002년 태풍 루사 및 2003년 태풍 매미 등 국내에서는 기후변화 중에서도 주로 이상호우로 인해 발생하는 피해가 많았으며 이들은 주기성이나 특성을 갖지 않아 예측이 어려운 관계로 망양보뢰 식의 후처리에 급급한 실정이었다. 최근 기후변화에 따른 지역별 홍수량, 가뭄량 등에 관한 연구가 가속화되고 있으며, 이와 더불어 해당 기후모델 발현 시 기존 구조물에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구도 필수적이다. 나아가 기존 구조물 뿐 아니라 새로 시공되는 구조물의 설계에서 기후변화에 대한 안정성을 위해 추가적으로 포함해야 할 요소가 있는지에 대한 연구도 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 가상 기후모델에 대해 그 모델이 예측하는 홍수량이 실제 발현되었을 경우를 가정하여, 기존 수공구조물의 안정성에 미치는 영향을 살펴보고 영향인자의 민감도를 분석하고자 한다. 대상 수공구조물은 붕괴 시 영향력이 큰 정도를 기준으로 필댐, 콘크리트차수벽형석괴댐(CFRD), 콘크리트중력식댐, 제방으로 그 범주를 제한 하였으며 대상유역은 한강으로 가정하였다. 구조물의 안정성 검토방법은 각 구조물의 종류에 따라 상이하다. 흙이 주 재료인 제방과 필댐의 경우, 침투(Piping)와 비탈면(Sliding)에 대한 안정성 평가가 이루어지며 CFRD는 댐체와 벽체로 나누어 안정성평가를 하며 댐체 안정성 평가방법은 필댐과 유사하다. 본 연구에서는 하천설계기준(2009)과 댐설계기준(2005)에 따라 각 구조물의 기준안전율을 책정하였으며 점착력, 내부마찰각, 단위중량 등의 물성치는 해당 지역의 토질특성에 따라 여러 문헌을 참고하여 설정하였고 이를 SEEP/W, SLOPE/W 프로그램을 이용하여 구조해석을 실시하였다. 콘크리트중력식댐은 활동, 전도, 지지력에 대해 각각 안정성을 평가하며 MIDAS와 ABAQUS 프로그램을 병행하여 해석하였다. 민감도(Sensitivity)란 안정성에 영향을 미치는 설계인자들의 변화에 따라 안정성이 어떻게 변화하는 지를 말한다. 기후변화에 의한 수공구조물 설계인자 민감도 연구를 통해 기존 설계과정 또는 안정성 검토 시 해당인자의 기여도를 높이거나 새로운 설계인자를 추가하여 미래 상황에 대한 구조물의 위험 정도를 과거대비 상세히 예측할 수 있으며 나아가 적절한 대응 방안 제시에 기여하여 기후변화에 따른 피해를 감소할 수 있을 것이라고 생각된다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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• 2013.02a
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• pp.243-244
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• 2013

Over the past 15 years, several groups have incorporated radio-frequency quadrupole (RFQ) based instruments before the accelerator in accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) systems for ion-gas interactions at low kinetic energy (＜40 eV). Most AMS systems arebased on a tandem accelerator, which requires negative ions at injection. Typically, AMS sensitivity abundance ratios for radioactive-to-stable isotope are limited to Xr/Xs ＞10^-15, and the range of isotopes that can be analyzed is limited because of theneed to produce rather large negative ion beams and the presence of atomic isobaric interferences after stripping. The potential of using low-kinetic energy ion-gas interactions for isobar suppression before the accelerator has been demonstrated for several negative ion isobar systems with a prototype RFQ system incorporated into the AMS system at IsoTrace Laboratory, Canada (Ontario, Toronto). Requisite for any such RFQ system applied to very rare isotope analysis is large transmission of the analyte ion. This requires proper phase-space matching between the RFQ acceptance and the ion beam phase space (e.g. 35 keV, ${\varphi}3mm$, +-35 mrad), and the ability to control the average ion energy during interactions with the gas. A segmented RFQ instrument is currently being designed at Korea Institute for Science and Technology (한국과학기술연구원, KIST). It will consist of: a) an initial static voltage electrode deceleration region, to lower the ion energy from 35 keV down to ＜40 eV at injection into the first RFQ segment; b) the segmented quadrupole ion-gas interaction region; c) a static voltage electrode re-acceleration region for ion injection into a tandem accelerator. Design considerations and modeling will be discussed. This system should greatly lower the detection limits of the 6 MV AMS system currently being commissioned at KIST. As an example, current detection sensitivity of 41Ca/Ca is limited to the order of 10^-15 while the 41Ca/Ca abundance in modern samples is typically 41Ca/Ca~10^-14 - 10^-15. The major atomic isobaric interference in AMS is 41K. Proof-of-principal work at IsoTrace Lab. has demonstrated that a properly designed system can achieve a relative suppression of KF3-/41CaF3- ＞4 orders of magnitude while maintaining very high transmission of the 41CaF3- ion. This would lower the 41Ca detection limits of the KIST AMS system to at least 41Ca/Ca~10^-19. As Ca is found in bones and shells, this would potentially allow direct dating of valuable anthropological archives and archives relevant to our understanding of the most pronounced climate change events over the past million years that cannot be directly dated with the presently accessible isotopes.