• Title/Summary/Keyword: change point analysis

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Quantitative separation of impacting factors to runoff variation using hydrological model and hydrological sensitivity analysis (수문모형과 수문학적 민감도분석을 이용한 유량변동 요인의 정량적 분리)

  • Kim, Hyeong Bae;Kim, Sang Ug;Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.139-153
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    • 2017
  • The variation in runoff due to global climate change and urbanization should be identified quantitatively because these two factors have been significantly accelerated during the last three decades in South Korea. However, only a few research to analyze the impacts due to two factors over different time scales can be found. Therefore, in this study, the hydrological model based approach and the hydrological sensitivity approach were used to separate relative impacts by two factors on monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales at the Soyang River upper basin and the Seom River basin in South Korea. The 3 techniques such as the double mass curve method, the Pettitt's test, and the BCP analysis were performed to detect change point occurred by abrupt change in the collected observed runoff. After detection of change ponts, SWAT models calibrated on the natural periods were used to calculate the changes due to human activities. Also, 6 Budyko based methods were auxiliary to verify the results from hydrological based approach.

Analysis of Long-term Changes of Days with 25℃ or Higher Air Temperatures in Jeju (제주의 여름철 기온이 25℃ 이상인 날수의 장기변화 분석)

  • Choi, Jae-Won;Cha, Yumi;Kim, Jeoung-Yun;Park, Cheol-Hong
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2016
  • In this study, the time series of the number of days with $25^{\circ}C$ or higher temperatures in the Jeju region were analyzed and they showed a strong trend of increase until recently. To determine the existence of a climate regime shift in this time series, the statistical change-point analysis was applied and it was found that the number of days with $25^{\circ}C$ or higher temperatures in the Jeju region increased sharply since 1993. Therefore, in order to examine the cause of the sharp increase of the days with $25^{\circ}C$ or higher temperatures in the Jeju region, the differences between the averages of 1994~2013 and the averages of 1974~1993 were analyzed for the large-scale environment. In the Korean Peninsula including the Jeju region, precipitable water and total cloud cover decreased recently due to the intensification of strong anomalous anticyclones near the Korean Peninsula in the top, middle and bottom layers of the troposphere. As a result of this, the number of days with $25^{\circ}C$ or higher temperatures in the Jeju region could increase sharply in recent years. Furthermore, in the analysis of sensible heat net flux and daily maximum temperatures at 2 m, which is the height that can be felt by people, the Korean Peninsula was included in the positive anomaly region. In addition, the frequency of typhoons affecting the Korean Peninsula decreased recently, which reduced the opportunities for air temperature drops in the Jeju region.

Analysis of Changes to a 2D Bodice Sloper According to Shoulder Line Variables of a 3D Mannequin and Their Relationships (3D 인대의 어깨선 변인에 따른 2D 길원형의 변화 및 상호관계 분석)

  • Eunsun Kwon;Yejin Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.563-575
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzed 2D bodice sloper changes according to combinations of the lateral neck and shoulder points of a 3D mannequin's shoulder lines. The relationship between the 3D shape and 2D pattern was analyzed. The shoulder line was set to a default of 1cm in front of or behind the lateral neck point, 1cm in front or behind the lateral shoulder point and 1cm vertically above the lateral neck or shoulder point. When the lateral neck point was moved backward, the front neck depth, front and back shoulder height, and shoulder length in the 3D shape increased, whereas the back neck's depth and width decreased. In the 2D pattern, the back shoulder height decreased. As the lateral shoulder point moved backward, all items of the 3D shape showed little change. However, the front shoulder height for the 2D pattern decreased. Consequently, the back shoulder height increased, and the lateral neck point was raised vertically by 1cm. Meanwhile, only the back neck depth and shoulder length decreased while all other items increased; however, in the 2D pattern, the front neck width and shoulder line showed no notable change. The shoulder point was raised vertically by 1cm, and the front and back shoulder heights of the 3D shape and 2D pattern were decreased.

Climate change and design wind load concepts

  • Kasperski, Michael
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.145-160
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    • 1998
  • In recent years, the effects of a possible climate change have been discussed in regard to wind loading on buildings and structures. Simple scenarios based on the assumption of global warming suggest an increase of storm intensities and storm frequencies and a possible re-distribution of storm tracks. Among recent publications, some papers seem to verify these scenarios while others deny the influence of climatic change. In an introductory step, the paper tries to re-examine these statements. Based on meteorological observations of a weather station in Germany, the existence of long-term trends and their statistical significance is investigated. The analysis itself is based on a refined model for the wind climate introducing a number of new basic variables. Thus, the numerical values of the design wind loads used in modern codes become more justified from the probabilistic point of view.

A study on the identification of the causes according to the broken plane types of glass (유리 파단면의 형태 식별에 따른 파손원인 감정에 대한 연구)

  • Mun, Yong-Su;Sa, Sang-Yeol;Choe, Min-Seok;Choe, Jae-Ho;Kim, Yong-Su
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Fire Investigation
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.12-15
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study is to distinguish the causes of broken glass from doors or windows when it is found being originally kept among the remains on the floor in fire site - whether it was broken due to heating or by outer power through test and the properties of the broken plane including the pattern on the plane. Addition to it, the study tries to find characteristics for judging the point and direction of breakdown through the analysis of glass broken by outer power. With two causes assumed - a. breakdown due to heating and b. breakdown due to outer power - 3 pieces of glass plates $(30cm{\times}30cm{\times}5mm)$ for each case were tested, getting the results as following: 1. For the glass broken due to the change of temperature The broken plane is of slow curve and smooth without any pattern. 2. For the broken due to outer power With the impact point as the center, the shows breakdown of radial type and the side shows breakdown of near-perpendicular type. The far the broken piece is from the impact point, the bigger the size is. The broken piece at the impact point is of long triangle type and the two long planes of the triangle shows semi-arc with the center of breakdown point and the other plane shows opposite pattern 3. Change of the pattern and type of the glass due to outer power The pattern and type of the glass due to outer power shows change due to heatihg.

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Vertical Variations Analysis of Air Temperature and CO2 Concentration in the Grassplots (잔디밭에서 기온과 이산화탄소 농도의 연직 변동 분석)

  • So, Yoon Hwan;Kang, Dong Hwan;Kim, Il Kyu;Kim, Byung Woo;Yoon, Hwan Jin;Kim, Si Hyeon;Son, Yong Seok;Shin, Jung Hyeon;Ahn, Jeong Woo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 2017
  • This study investigated the characteristics of variations in carbon dioxide concentration and air temperature with the vertical change of surface in a grassplot. Field observations were carried out at a grassplot in Gyeongnam Science High School, over four days in August and November, 2015. Continuous observation equipment (GMP343, VAISALA) was installed at the LP (0.1 m from the surface) and UP (1.1 m from the surface) points, and the carbon dioxide concentration and air temperature were measured simultaneously at 1-min intervals. To summarize the results of the observation, August had higher than average concentrations of carbon dioxide, while November showed average air temperatures. Moreover, the concentration of carbon dioxide was higher at the UP point, while the air temperature was higher at the LP point. The correlation coefficient of carbon dioxide concentration between the UP and LP points was 0.80 in August across all the four days, while it was higher in November at 0.58-0.95. The results of the regression analysis of carbon dioxide concentration with air temperature changes for both August and November showed a distinct change at the LP point (R2=0.36-0.76), as compared to the UP point (R2=0.1-0.57). Between the UP and LP points, the carbon dioxide concentration and air temperature regression analysis results indicated that an active exchange was taking place between the two points.

Analysis for Air Temperature Trend and Elasticity of Air-water Temperature according to Climate Changes in Nakdong River Basin (기후변화에 따른 낙동강 유역의 기온 경향성 및 수온과의 탄성도 분석)

  • Shon, Tae Seok;Lim, Yong Gyun;Baek, Meung Ki;Shin, Hyun Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.822-833
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    • 2010
  • Temperature increase due to climate changes causes change of water temperature in rivers which results in change of water quality etc. and the change of river ecosystem has a great impact on human life. Analyzing the impact of current climate changes on air and water temperature is an important thing in adapting to the climate changes. This study examined the effect of climate changes through analyzing air temperature trend for Nakdong river basin and analyzed the elasticity of air-water temperature to understand the effect of climate changes on water temperature. For analysis air temperature trend, collecting air temperature data from the National Weather Service on main points in Nakdong river basin, and resampling them at the units of year, season and month, used as data for air temperature trend analysis. Analyzing for elasticity of air-water temperature, the data were collected by the Water Environment Information system for water temperature, while air temperature data were collected at the National Weather Service point nearest in the water temperature point. And using the results of trend analysis and elasticity analysis, the effect of climate changes on water temperature was examined estimating future water temperature in 20 years and 50 years after. It is judged that analysis on mutual impact between factors such as heat budget, precipitation and evapotranspiration on river water temperature affected by climate changes and river water temperature is necessary.

Comparative study of pulse point using hemodynamics (혈류역학을 이용한 촌구와 인영의 특성비교)

  • Shin, Sang-hoon;Park, Dae-hun;Park, Young-jae;Park, Young-bae
    • Journal of Acupuncture Research
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.241-248
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    • 2004
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study is to examine the hemodynamic characteristics of pulse point. Methods : The computational analysis algorithms of arterial tree system was derived. In order to investigate the effect of internal organ on the pulse point, the diameter of celiac artery was reduced by half. Results : The sensitivity of flow change at the Inyoung(Renying) is better than that of the Chongu(Cunkou). but the Inyoung was worse than the Chongu in the point of the left and right symmetry. The pressure changes at the Inyoung and the Chongu were in the similar range. Conclusions : It was found from the result that the Chongu shows the more symmetrical hemodynamic characteristics than the Inyoung.

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A study on water quality change by land use change using HSPF

  • Kim, Tae Geun;Choi, Kyoung-sik
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.123-128
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    • 2020
  • Non-point source pollutant load reductions were calculated using the Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model under the assumption that landuse pattern was changed according to land purchases. Upon the simulation of non-point pollutant and areas with high land purchase ratios to select a buffer zone, the Namgang dam Reach 11, Imha dam Reach 10, and the Reach 136 watershed of the main river were found to rank high for the construction of buffer zones. Assuming that the forms of the purchased lands were changed to wetlands, biological oxygen demand (BOD) loads were changed through the HSPF model. No changes of BOD were present in the Namgang dam and the Imha dam watersheds. BOD loads in Reach 136 according to landuse change were analyzed through a flow duration analysis based on the total maximum daily loads of the United States. The flow duration analyses undertaken to examine changes in BOD of main river Reach 136 watershed indicated a shift of 0.64 kg/d from 3.16 to 2.52 during high flow. The change of BOD under the conditions of moist, mid-range and dry were 11.9%, 9% and 4.5%. At the low flow condition, the variation range in the BOD load was from 0.58 kg/d to 0.41 kg/d.

Internal Resonance and Stability Change for the Two Degree Nonlinear Coupled System (2 자유도 비선형 연성시스템에서 내부공진과 안정성 변화)

  • Kim, Myoung-Gu;Pak, Chul-Hui;Cho, Chong-Du
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.853-861
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    • 2007
  • To understand the concept of dynamic motion in two degree nonlinear coupled system, free vibration not including damping and excitation is investigated with the concept of nonlinear normal mode. Stability analysis of a coupled system is conducted, and the theoretical analysis performed for the bifurcation phenomenon in the system. Bifurcation point is estimated using harmonic balance method. When the bifurcation occurs, the saddle point is always found on Poincare's map. Nonlinear phenomenon result in amplitude modulation near the saddle point and the internal resonance in the system making continuous interchange of energy. If the bifurcation in the normal mode is local, the motion remains stable for a long time even when the total energy is increased in the system. On the other hand, if the bifurcation is global, the motion in the normal mode disappears into the chaos range as the range becomes gradually large.

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