• Title/Summary/Keyword: causal reasoning

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Operational Availability Improvement through Online Monitoring and Advice For Emergency Diesel Generator

  • Lee, Jong-Beom;Kim, han-Gon;Kim, Byong-Sub;M. Golay;C.W. Kang;Y. Sui
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1998.05a
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    • pp.264-270
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    • 1998
  • This research broadens the prime concern of nuclear power plant operations from safe performance to both economic and safe performance. First emergency diesel generator is identified as one of main contributors for the lost plant availability through the review of plants forced outage records. The framework of an integrated architecture for performing modern on-line condition for operational availability improvement is configured in this work. For the development of the comprehensive sensor networks for complex target systems, an integrated methodology incorporating a structural hierarchy, a functional hierarchy, and a fault-system matrix is formulated. The second part of our research is development of intelligent diagnosis and maintenance advisory system, which employs Bayesian Belief networks (BBNs) as a high level reasoning tool incorporating inherent uncertainty use in probabilistic inference. Our prototype diagnosis algorithms are represented explicitly through topological symbols and links between them in a causal direction. As new evidence from sensor network development is entered into the model especially, our advisory of system provides operational advice concerning both availability and safety, so that the operator is able to determine the likely modes, diagnose the system state, locate root causes, and take the most advantageous action. Thereby, this advice improves operational availability

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Exploring the Practical Value of Business Games: Analysis with Toulmin's Sensemaking Framework

  • Joo Baek Kim;Edward Watson;Soo Il Shin
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.803-829
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    • 2022
  • With the advances in technology and the trend towards increased computer-based experiential learning in education settings, business games are being increasingly used by business educators. This article utilizes Toulmin's Sensemaking Framework to investigate the sensemaking process of business professionals to reveal how they consciously reason about the value of business games for learning complex business concepts and principles. Using the analysis of responses from 43 business professionals, our study identifies key areas where business professionals find value in business games and the limitations of using business games. First, business games are found to be an effective tool when teaching practical business skill sets to business professionals. Second, business games enhance the overall learning process in professional business training. Third, despite the advantages, some pitfalls in applying business games to practice are found. We also found sub-themes, claims, and argument patterns of how business professionals evaluate the value of business games through a grounded theory qualitative analysis method. Analysis results show several ground-warrant patterns exist in the arguments on values of business games including general principle - causal reasoning, personal experience - generalization, and personal projection - generalization. With these findings, we believe this paper contributes to the theory and practice of business game design, development, and the game playing and learning process.

Analysis of Conceptions Related to Earth System and Systems-Thinking of High School Student about Water Cycle (물의 순환에 대한 고등학생들의 지구시스템 관련 개념과 시스템 사고의 분석)

  • Kang, Chun-duk;Lee, Hyo-nyong;Yoon, Ill-Hee;Kim, Eun-ju
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of the study is to research students' proficiency with systems-thinking approach concerning water cycles and to acquire data on Earth System-related concepts based on students' feedback. To achieve the purpose of the study, I chose 4 mid-level high school juniors living in Pohang, where the high school equalization policy has not been implemented, and the students answered a questionnaire about water cycles. Then, based on the results, I created a causal map and evaluated it using systems-thinking analysis. The results of the study are as follows: First of all, among the answers of the subjects, there were 21 concepts related to the conception of the earth system : 14 of the conceptions were linked scientifically, and 7 of the conceptions were not linked scientifically. Secondly, results of the causal map of what the subjects described showed that only two students'(A and C) feedback loops were completed, and that student C's feedback loop included unscientific reasoning. In conclusion, this study indicated that the students failed to understand the water cycle with the systems-thinking approach, or alternatively they applied low-level systems-thinking approach and had a lower understanding of it.

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Fault Localization for Self-Managing Based on Bayesian Network (베이지안 네트워크 기반에 자가관리를 위한 결함 지역화)

  • Piao, Shun-Shan;Park, Jeong-Min;Lee, Eun-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.15B no.2
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2008
  • Fault localization plays a significant role in enormous distributed system because it can identify root cause of observed faults automatically, supporting self-managing which remains an open topic in managing and controlling complex distributed systems to improve system reliability. Although many Artificial Intelligent techniques have been introduced in support of fault localization in recent research especially in increasing complex ubiquitous environment, the provided functions such as diagnosis and prediction are limited. In this paper, we propose fault localization for self-managing in performance evaluation in order to improve system reliability via learning and analyzing real-time streams of system performance events. We use probabilistic reasoning functions based on the basic Bayes' rule to provide effective mechanism for managing and evaluating system performance parameters automatically, and hence the system reliability is improved. Moreover, due to large number of considered factors in diverse and complex fault reasoning domains, we develop an efficient method which extracts relevant parameters having high relationships with observing problems and ranks them orderly. The selected node ordering lists will be used in network modeling, and hence improving learning efficiency. Using the approach enables us to diagnose the most probable causal factor with responsibility for the underlying performance problems and predict system situation to avoid potential abnormities via posting treatments or pretreatments respectively. The experimental application of system performance analysis by using the proposed approach and various estimations on efficiency and accuracy show that the availability of the proposed approach in performance evaluation domain is optimistic.

Comparison of the Features of Science Language between Texts of Earth Science Articles and Earth Science Textbooks (지구과학 논문과 지구과학 교과서 텍스트의 과학 언어적 특성 비교)

  • Lee, Jeong-A;Kim, Chan-Jong;Maeng, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.367-378
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the features of science language in Earth science textbooks and Earth science research articles. We examined two Earth science textbooks and two Earth science articles using the taxonomy of scientific words, the text structure analysis of explanations, the analysis of conjunctive relations and reasoning, and the function of conjunction. The results showed that school science language revealed in Earth science textbooks had high proportion of naming words and the text structures in which definition/exemplification structure and description structure were dominant. Also, internal relations that showed additional arrangement rather than logical inference, were predominant in Earth science textbooks. However, scientists' science language revealed in the Earth science articles had more proportion of process words and concept words than the Earth science textbooks and the schematic structure of explanation texts, such as orientation - implication sequence - conclusion. In addition, the text structures in each sentences of implication -sequence showed cause/effect or problem-solving after description structures. Also each sentences expressed causal or abductive reasoning through the internal relations using verbs or adverbial inflection. It is necessary that we bridge the gap between the two languages for students' authentic use of science language. For the bridging, we propose "interlanguage", which mediates between school science language and scientists' language.

Related Conception s to Earth System and Applying of Systems Thinking about Carbon Cycle of the Preservice Teachers (예비교사들의 탄소 순환에 대한 지구시스템의 관련개념과 시스템 사고의 적용)

  • Jeong, Jin-Woo;kyung, Jai-Bok;Koh, Yeong-Koo;Youn, Seok-Tae;Kim, Hai-Gyoung;Oh, Kang-Ho;Moon, Byoung-Chan
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.25 no.8
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    • pp.684-696
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    • 2004
  • Using six preservice teachers as subjects, this was purpose to research about concepts in understanding carbon cycle, which of concepts were related to the conception of the system, and finally whether or not the systems thinking was sufficiently around carbon cycle. To achieve this study purpose , an instrument related to carbon cycle was developed and administered to the six teachers. The study found that a total of 42 conceptions within the system were concepts related to carbon cycle. The consisted of 15 conceptions in atmosphere, 11 in atmosphere 9 in hydrosphere, and 7 in lithosphere. In aspect of applying the system thinking, 4 subjects who couldn't compose the feedback loop in their causal map failed to apply this type of thinking. The other two who applied systems thinking had 2 and 1 feedback loop each, in their causal maps. But, one of the feedback loop from the subject who made two was based on unscientific reasoning. As a result, the subjects had lower understanding of concepts related to carbon cycle in lithosphere than in atmosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere. Futhermore, the subjects' application of the earth systems thinking on carbon was at a low standard.

Interpretation of chest bind(結胸) in Donguisusebowon(東醫壽世保元) based on the chest bind disease of the Soyang pattern (『동의수세보원(東醫壽世保元)』의 결흉(結胸) 해석 - 소양인 결흉을 중심으로 -)

  • Jang, Woo-Chang
    • Journal of Korean Medical classics
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.99-119
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    • 2015
  • Objectives : This study aims to compare and analyze the contents and logic of Lee Jema's chest bind theory of the Soyang pattern with that of the traditional perspective since Shanghanlun, and to further investigate its underlying meaning and evaluate its value. Methods : Study chest bind related arguments of Lee through historical, demonstrative and positive investigation. First, contrast related texts starting from Shanghanlun, followed by reasoning based on general medical logic. Finally review clinical case studies from texts and papers for verification. Results : According to Lee, the key to diagnosis and treatment in preventing major chest bind which is a severe condition in the exterior cold pattern of the Soyang constitution, is to disperse fluid bind using GanSui(甘遂) in the water counterflow and vomiting(水逆嘔吐) stage prior to the major chest bind symptoms of stiffness and pain in the lower chest(心下硬痛), and reducing phlegm-rheum using DoJeokGangGiTang(導赤降氣湯) in the beginning stages of chest bind. HyeongBangDoJeokSan(荊防導赤散) is the main formula in treating phlegm-rheum, a causal factor to chest bind, modified according to the 'treat the three burners separately(三焦分治)' theory of the DaoChiSan(導赤散) section in WanBingHuiChun (萬病回春) to accomodate the Soyang constitution. Conclusions : If we follow Lee's diagnosis and treatment system on chest bind, it will allow us to diagnose chest bind in the earlier stages and secure safe treatment.

Effects of the Variable Activities in the 'Thinking Science' Program on the Ability of Variable-Controlling of Elementary School Students ('생각하는 과학' 프로그램의 변인활동이 초등학생의 변인통제 능력에 미치는 효과)

  • Han, Hyo-Soon;Choi, Byung-Soon;Kang, Soon-Min;Park, Jong-Yoon
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.571-585
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    • 2002
  • This is one of the basic research for inspecting the possibility of the development of logical thinking capability to make possible formal thinking. The 5th grade students (n=306) in the elementary school were participated in this study. Performing the 6 variable-controlling activities in the 'Thinking Science' program for one semester, the SRT II test and the Variable-Controlling test were operated to examine the effects on the development of the variable-controlling ability by treatments, gender, and cognitive levels. Performing of the variable-controlling activities was highly successive on the development of students' variable-controlling ability. Although learning effect on the ability of identifying causal variable was moderate, the abilities of controlling experimental condition, measurement of variable, and identifying result variable were significantly developed. There was statistically significant difference by gender. Girls showed better performance all the time in both groups. Boys in the experimental group were getting better gradually, so the difference by gender was somewhat decreased. Examining the variable-controlling ability by cognitive levels, students in the experimental group show significant increase in all levels, especially the students in early, mid, and mature concrete level show substantial learning effects. The results of this study implied that the variable-controlling activities in the 'Thinking Science' could be effective for learning of variable-controlling and eventually for the development of logical thinking capability to make possible formal thinking.

Inferential Structure and Reality Problem in Diagnosis of Oriental Medicine (한의 진단의 추론형식과 실재성)

  • Park, Geong-Mo;Choi, Seong-Hoon;Ahn, Gyu-Seok
    • Journal of The Association for Neo Medicine
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.55-84
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    • 1997
  • Inferential structure and reality problem is a serious issue to O.M.(oriental medicine). The study will analyze this issue through a philosophical and historical comparative study of W.M.M(Western modern medicine) and O.M. First, I presuppose some basic ideas. The first is the division of the 'the philosophy of medicine' and 'the medicine itself'. Second, there is a 'visibility' that discriminate between 'the abstractive concept' and 'the concrete object' in diagnostic terminology. The third is the separation of disease, the entity and disease, the phenomenon. Finally, the distinction between the cause of disease and the nature of disease. Through these basic concepts, this study will analyze O.M's diagnostic methodology, 'Pattern identification of the S.A.S(sign and symptom)'. The results are follows: 1. O.M's views disease as a phenomenon. So, the S.A.S, which is visible, is the disease itself. Tough the analysis and inference of the S.A.S, 證(zheng) the essence is derived. 2. 證(zheng) can be considered as 'the abstractive concept' reflecting the essence of a disease. 3. 證(zheng) is not arrived through causal sequence reasoning but rather by analogical reasoning. 4. 證(zheng) is 'the non-random correlative combination of S.A.S', pattern. These patterns secure the abstractive deduction in reality. that is, The causality, the positivism, the view of disease as entity, and anatomical knowledge are the traits peculiar to W.M.M. But, these properties can not be applied universally to every medical systems. Also, these properties do not indicate the superiority or inferiority of any medical system. 5. 證(zheng) summarizes the patients condition simultaneously with the S.A.S. However, 證(zheng) doesn't necessarily indicate the knowledge about the actual internal organ. That is, Early in O.M.'s history, the diagnostic terminologies including 證(zheng) were analogical reflections of a naive knowledge of internal organs and external environmental factors. Later, the naive knowledge in 證(zheng) changed int new nature, an abstractive concept. The confusion of the concept of disease, the indiscriminate acceptance of Western anatomical knowledge, and the O.M.'s theoretical evolution et are the challenge facing modern O.M. To find solutions, this study looks at the sequence of the birth of W.M.M. and then compares it's system with the O.M. system. The confusion of the concept of disease, the indiscriminate acceptance of Western anatomical knowledge, and the O.M.'s theoretical evolution et are the challenge facing modern O.M. To find solutions, this study looks at the sequence of the birth of W.M.M. and then compares it's system with the O.M. system. It is recommended that O.M. diagnostics should pay close attention to the ambiguity of the diagnostic methodology in order to further development. At present time, the concept and the system peculiar to O.M. can not be explained by common language. but O.M.'s practitioner can not persist in this manner an: longer. Along with the internal development of O.M., the adjustment of O.M.'s diagnostic terminology needs to be adopted.

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The Effect of Perceived Shopping Value Dimensions on Attitude toward Store, Emotional Response to Store Shopping, and Store Loyalty (지각된 쇼핑가치차원이 점포태도, 쇼핑과정에서의 정서적 경험, 점포충성도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn Kwang Ho;Lee Ha Neol
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.137-164
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    • 2011
  • In the past, retailers secured customer loyalty by offering convenient locations, unique assortments of goods, better services than competitors, and good credit policy. All this has changed. Goods assortments among stores have become more alike as national-brand manufacturers place their goods in more and more retail stores. Service differentiation also has eroded. Many department stores have trimmed services, and many discount stores have increased theirs. Customers have become smarter shoppers. They don't pay more for identical brands, especially when service differences have diminished. In the face of increased competition from discount storess and specialty stores, department stores are waging a comeback war. Growth of intertype competition, competition between store-based and non-store-based retailing and growing investment in technology are changing the way consumers shop and retailers sell. Different types of stores-discount stores, catalog showrooms, department stores-all compete for the same consumers by carrying the same type of merchandise. The biggest winners are retailers that have helped shoppers to be economically cautious, simplified their increasingly busy and complicated lives, and provided an emotional connection. The growth of e-retailers has forced traditional brick-and-mortar retailers to respond. Basically brick-and-mortar retailers utilize their natural advantages, such as products that shoppers can actually see, touch, and test, real-life customer service, and no delivery lag time for small-sized purchases. They also provide a shopping experience as a strong differentiator. They are adopting practices as calling each shopper a "guest". The store atmosphere should match the basic motivations of the shopper. If target consumers are more likely to be in a task-oriented and functional mindset, then a simpler, more restrained in-store environment may be better. Consistent with this reasoning, some retailers of experiential products are creating in-store entertainment to attract customers who want fun and excitement. The retail experience must deliver value to turn a one-time visitor into a loyal customer. Retailers need a tool that measures the full range of components that define experience-based value. This study uses an experiential value scale(EVS) developed by Mathwick, Malhotra and Rigdon(2001) which reflects the benefits derived from perceptions of playfulness, aesthetics, customer "return on investment" and service excellence. EVS is useful to predict differences in shopping preferences and patronage behavior of customers. EVS consists of items measuring efficiency, economic value, visual appeal, entertainment value, service excellence, escapism, and intrinsic enjoyment, which are subscales of experiencial value. Efficiency, economic value, service excellence are linked to the utilitarian shopping value. And visual appeal, entertainment value, escapism and intrinsic enjoyment are linked to hedonic shopping value. It has been found that consumers value hedonic experiences activated from escapism and attractiveness of shopping environment as much as the product quality, price, and the convenient location. As a result, many department stores, discount stores, and other retailers are introducing differential marketing strategy based on emotional/hedonic values. Many researches suggest that consumers go shopping not only for buying products but also for various shopping experiences. In other words, they seek the practical, rational value as well as social, recreational values in the shopping process(Babin et al, 1994; Bloch et al, 1994). Retailers may enhance buyer's loyalty to store by providing excellent emotional/hedonic value such as the excitement from shopping, not just the practical value of buying good products efficiently. We investigate the effect of perceived shopping values on the emotional experience and store loyalty based on the EVS(Experiential Value Scales) developed by Holbrook(1994), Mathwick, Malhotra and Rigdon(2001). This study assumes that the relative effect of shopping value dimensions on the responses of shoppers will differ according to types of stores and analyzes the moderating effect of store type(department store VS. discount store) on the causal relationship between shopping value dimensions and store loyalty. Emprical results show that utilitarian values of shopping experience and hedonic value of shipping experience give the positive effect on the emotional response of consumers and store loyalty. We also found the moderating effect of store types. The effect of utilitarian shopping values on the attitude toward discount store is higher than the effect of utilitarian shopping values on the attitude toword department store. And the effect of hedonic shopping value on the emotional response to discount store is higher than on the emotional response to department store. The empirical results reflect on the recent trend that discount stores try to fulfill the hedonic needs of consumers as well as utilitarian needs(i.e, low price) that discount stores traditionally have focused on

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