• Title/Summary/Keyword: catastrophic event

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Fuzzy event tree analysis for quantified risk assessment due to oil and gas leakage in offshore installations

  • Cheliyan, A.S.;Bhattacharyya, S.K.
    • Ocean Systems Engineering
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.41-55
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    • 2018
  • Accidental oil and gas leak is a critical concern for the offshore industry because it can lead to severe consequences and as a result, it is imperative to evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of the consequences of the leakage in order to assess the risk. Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a technique to identify the consequences that can result from the occurrence of a hazardous event. The probability of occurrence of the consequences is evaluated by the ETA, based on the failure probabilities of the sequential events. Conventional ETA deals with events with crisp failure probabilities. In offshore applications, it is often difficult to arrive at a single probability measure due to lack of data or imprecision in data. In such a scenario, fuzzy set theory can be applied to handle imprecision and data uncertainty. This paper presents fuzzy ETA (FETA) methodology to compute the probability of the outcomes initiated due to oil/gas leak in an actual offshore-onshore installation. Post FETA, sensitivity analysis by Fuzzy Weighted Index (FWI) method is performed to find the event that has the maximum contribution to the severe sequences. It is found that events of 'ignition', spreading of fire to 'equipment' and 'other areas' are the highest contributors to the severe consequences, followed by failure of 'leak detection' and 'fire detection' and 'fire water not being effective'. It is also found that the frequency of severe consequences that are catastrophic in nature obtained by ETA is one order less than that obtained by FETA, thereby implying that in ETA, the uncertainty does not propagate through the event tree. The ranking of severe sequences based on their probability, however, are identical in both ETA and FETA.

A Study on the Development of Assessment Index for Catastrophic Incident Warning Sign at Refinery and Pertrochemical Plants (정유 및 석유화학플랜트 중대사고 전조신호 평가지표 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Yong Jin;Park, Dal Jae
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.637-651
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    • 2019
  • In the event of a major accident such as an explosion in a refinery or a petrochemical plant, it has caused a serious loss of life and property and has had a great impact on the insurance market. In the case of catastrophic incidents occurring in process industries such as refinery and petrochemical plants, only the proximate causes of loss have been drawn and studied from inspectors or claims adjustors responsible for claims of property insurers, incident cause investigators, and national forensic service workers. However, it has not been done well for conducting root cause analysis (RCA) and identifying the factors that contributed to the failure and establishing preventive measures before leading to chemical plant's catastrophic incidents. In this study, the criteria of warning signs on CCPS catastrophic incident waning sign self-assessment tool which was derived through the RCA method and the contribution factor analysis method using the swiss cheese model principle has been reviewed first. Secondly, in order to determine the major incident warning signs in an actual chemical plant, 614 recommendations which have been issued during last the 17 years by loss control engineers of global reinsurers were analyzed. Finally, in order to facilitate the assessment index for catastrophic incident warning signs, the criteria for the catastrophic incident warning sign index at chemical plants were grouped by type and classified into upper category and lower category. Then, a catastrophic incident warning sign index for a chemical plant was developed using the weighted values of each category derived by applying the analytic hierarchy process (pairwise comparison method) through a questionnaire answered by relevant experts of the chemical plant. It is expected that the final 'assessment index for catastrophic incident warning signs' can be utilized by the refinery and petrochemical plant's internal as well as external auditors to assess vulnerability levels related to incident warning signs, and identify the elements of incident warning signs that need to be tracked and managed to prevent the occurrence of serious incidents in the future.

The Truth of the Photograph and its Representation of Observer Appeared in the Painting of History (역사그림에 나타난 사진의 진실과 관찰자적 재현)

  • Lee, Kyung-Ryul
    • Cross-Cultural Studies
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    • v.29
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    • pp.25-53
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    • 2012
  • The attitude of observer in the painting of history is to exclude a prejudice and a subjective view of an artist and to introduce a photograph, which is a record of objectivity, in the process of painting. Its ultimate intent is to redescribe the fact of an event's image intactly without any prejudice and to represent the event as a proven evidence that it was. The representation of history based on fact had already been conceived in imagination of renowned artists such as Francisco Goya or $Th{\acute{e}}odore$ $G{\acute{e}}ricault$ even before cameras were invented. What they portrayed was their own truth of reality which is gained through their observation, not a history that have corresponded to political ideologies, for all reliance on a limited tool of representation, painting. Furthermore, history was necessary for 19th century impressionism artists to be represented under proven fact in a neutral perspective excluding all subjective prejudice, not based on the representation with imagination. Edouard Manet in particular reconstited an instant moment on the basis of real proof of photograph without personal prejudice or opinion as if today's photojournalism. The catastrophic series by Andy Warhol and the photographic painting by Gerhard Richter show another role of painting in the realm of art, each of them implying information distortion and abuse by current media and intentional deformation toward history as Manet's painting of history. Today, the representation of an historical event that we experience in the era of the Internet and social networks having a great deal of information already came to be the exclusive property of the cutting edge mass media. Nevertheless, the attitude of observer which is realistic and contemplative in the realm of art is the crucial point in terms of artists' act as ever.

Disaster Resilience in Self-Organized Interorganizational Networks: Theoretical Perspectives and Assessment

  • Jung, Kyujin
    • Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.98-110
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    • 2016
  • Building resilient community is often a complicated process to be gained by interorganizational collaboration. Since patterns of interorganizational relations among governments and sectors are constantly changing due to internal and external factors in the field of emergency management, understanding the dynamic nature of interorganizational collaboration is a critical step for improving a community’s ability to bounce back from a catastrophic event. From two theoretical perspectives, this research aims to examine the essential role of working across levels of governments and sectors in building resilient community by focusing on sources of community resiliency and a strong commitment. The empirical evidence highlights the importance of studying resilience as a way to understand the motivation and incentive for organizations to work jointly during emergency response. The study of organizational resilience also draws attention for the importance of various forms of interorganizational collaboration such as formal and informal relations. It also highlights how local organizations can utilize their relations to seek resources without necessarily jeopardizing their ability to perform their core organizational functions.

체외순환중 발생한 대량 공기전색에 대한 상공대정맥을 통한 일시적역관류 -치험 2예-

  • 이재성
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.543-548
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    • 1986
  • Massive air embolism during cardiopulmonary bypass is uncommon but serious and often lethal complication. Following this catastrophic event, the immediate institution of retrograde arterial blood perfusion via superior vena cava was made to remove air emboli from cerebral circulation. This method was performed by removing the arterial perfusion line from aortic cannula and connecting it to superior vena caval cannula. Then, retrograde perfusion at a flow rate of 2Umin via superior vena cava was carried out for 3 minutes. After air returning from the aortic cannula was identified, each line was connected to the cannulae primarily. In 2 cases who had massive air emboli due to air pumping into arterial line, the postoperative complete recovery resulted from this technique, which was used in conjunction with other therapy postoperatively.

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Seismic behavior of concrete gravity dams

  • Varughese, Jiji Anna;Nikithan, Sreelakshmi
    • Advances in Computational Design
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.195-206
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    • 2016
  • Dams play a vital role in the development and sustainment in a country. Failure of dams leads to the catastrophic event with sudden release of water and is of great concern. Hence earthquake-resistant design of dams is of prime importance. The present study involves static, modal and transient analyses of dam-reservoir-foundation system using finite element software ANSYS 15. The dam and the foundation are modeled with 2D plane strain element "PLANE 42" and the reservoir by fluid acoustic element "FLUID 29" with proper consideration of fluid-structure interaction. An expression for the fundamental period of concrete dams is developed based on modal analysis. Seismic response of gravity dams subjected to earthquake acceleration is evaluated in terms of peak displacement and stress.

Application of GIS Technology for Developing Emergency Management System on High-Speed Lines

  • Kim, Sang-Ahm;Hong, Seon-Ho;Wang, Jong-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.156-162
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    • 2003
  • Due to almost all tracks of new Kyoungbu high-speed lines(HSL) consisting of bridges and tunnels, HSR operational safety management is very important factor for passenger safety and preventing catastrophic event. Especially, it is important to approach the scene of the accident and assist in saving lives as soon as possible under emergency conditions. Therefore it is essential to prepare access methods and available resources in advance in order to support emergency correspodances promptly and effectively. This paper persents an application of geographical information system(GIS) for developing emergency management system as well as batabase system on tracks and facilities, electric/communication equipment and safety equipment required to support emergencies. The on-site information on the proximity of HSL is expressed on the numerical map, which can be helpful to call external supports such as medical service, local authorities, police offices, fire brigades, and etc. for the emergency situations.

A Case of Trousseau's Syndrome with Catastrophic Course Triggered by an Intravenous Injection (한번의 말초정맥주사로 유발되어 파국적으로 진행된 Trousseau증후군 1예)

  • Moon, Ji-Yong;Kim, Sa-Il;Kwak, Hyun-Jung;Song, Soon-Young;Kim, In-Soon;Kim, Sang-Heon;Kim, Tae-Hyung;Sohn, Jang-Won;Yoon, Ho-Joo;Shin, Dong-Ho;Park, Sung-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.71 no.2
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    • pp.134-138
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    • 2011
  • Trousseau's syndrome is an unexplained thrombotic event that precedes the diagnosis of an occult visceral malignancy or appears concomitantly with the tumor. Upper extremity deep vein thrombosis is prevalent in patients with a central venous catheter. Furthermore, a peripheral intravenous injection may cause upper extremity deep vein thrombosis as well. However, a deep vein thrombosis has not been reported in the form of Trousseau's syndrome with a catastrophic clinical course triggered by a single peripheral intravenous injection. A 48-year-old man presented with a swollen left arm on which he was given intravenous fluid at a local clinic due to flu symptoms. Contrast computed tomgraphy scans showed thromboses from the left distal brachial to the innominate vein. The patient developed multiple cerebral infarctions despite anticoagulation treatment. He was diagnosed with stomach cancer by endoscopic biopsy to evaluate melena and had a persistently positive lupus anticoagulant. After recurrent and multiple thromboembolic events occurred with treatment, he died on day 20.

A Study on Reliability Analysis and Quantitative Risk Analysis for Liquefied Petroleum Gas Station (LPG 충전시설에 대한 신뢰도 분석과 정량적 위험성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim In-Won;Jin Sang-Hwa;Kim Tea-Woo;Kim In-Tae;Yeo Yeong-Koo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.5 no.4 s.16
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    • pp.40-48
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    • 2001
  • For a Liquified Petroleum Gas(LPG) station, the reliability analysis, such as Fussell-Vesely importance, risk decrease factor and risk increase factor, was carried out and the risk ranks of events were determined. In order to confirm the degree of the risks identified in the reliability analysis, the quantitative risk analysis was done for the equipments which had the large values of risk ranks. As a result of the importance analysis for the LPG station, the external event was identified as the most riskful event. The defect of construction structure and the pipe corrosion were riskful as well. The result of quantitative risk analysis showed that the length of 46.3 meters were estimated to damage the process equipments by the thermal flux from the catastrophic rupture of storage tank in Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion.

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Pituitary Apoplexy : Surgical Experience with 16 Patients

  • Lee, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Jae-Hyoo;Moon, Kyung-Sub;Joo, Sung-Pil;Lee, Jung-Kil;Kim, Soo-Han
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 2007
  • Objective : Pituitary apoplexy, resulting from an acute infarction or hemorrhage mainly in pituitary adenomas, is a rare yet major clinical event with neurological, ophthalmological and hormonal emergent consequences. The authors review our surgical experience with a series of 16 cases of pituitary apoplexy. Methods : The cases of pituitary apoplexy, operated via trans-sphenoidal approach in our hospital between 1998-2005, were retrospectively analyzed in terms of their clinicoradiological features, pathological findings and surgical outcomes. Results : The mean age of patients (9 male and 7 female) was 47.1 years. The average time of presentation after onset of symptom was 8.9 days. Pituitary apoplexy occurred as an initial manifestation of pituitary adenoma in all patients. Headache was the most common presenting symptom (94%). Visual disturbance was found in 56% of patients. Thirty-one percent of the patients had hypopituitarism. On magnetic resonance imaging, this entire catastrophic event accompanied with macroadenoma in a mean size of 22.5 mm. Only four patients needed postoperative hormone replacement therapy. Three of them showed preoperative hypopituitary function, and one patient in normal pituitary function. There was no specific complication in any of these patients. Conclusion : Early trans-sphenoidal decompression with high-dose corticosteroid replacement showed good outcomes of pituitary apoplexy.