• Title/Summary/Keyword: bias errors

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Error Characteristic Analysis and Correction Technique Study for One-month Temperature Forecast Data (1개월 기온 예측자료의 오차 특성 분석 및 보정 기법 연구)

  • Yongseok Kim;Jina Hur;Eung-Sup Kim;Kyo-Moon Shim;Sera Jo;Min-Gu Kang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.368-375
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we examined the error characteristic and bias correction method for one-month temperature forecast data produced through joint development between the Rural Development Administration and the H ong Kong University of Science and Technology. For this purpose, hindcast data from 2013 to 2021, weather observation data, and various environmental information were collected and error characteristics under various environmental conditions were analyzed. In the case of maximum and minimum temperatures, the higher the elevation and latitude, the larger the forecast error. On average, the RMSE of the forecast data corrected by the linear regression model and the XGBoost decreased by 0.203, 0.438 (maximum temperature) and 0.069, 0.390 (minimum temperature), respectively, compared to the uncorrected forecast data. Overall, XGBoost showed better error improvement than the linear regression model. Through this study, it was found that errors in prediction data are affected by topographical conditions, and that machine learning methods such as XGBoost can effectively improve errors by considering various environmental factors.

An Approach for the NHPP Software Reliability Model Using Erlang Distribution (어랑 분포를 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성장 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Hee-Cheul;Choi Yue-Soon;Park Jong-Goo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2006
  • The finite failure NHPP models proposed in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, we propose the Erlang reliability model, which can capture the increasing nature of the failure occurrence rate per fault. Equations to estimate the parameters of the Erlang finite failure NHPP model based on failure data collected in the form of inter-failure times are developed. For the sake of proposing shape parameter of the Erlang distribution, we used to the goodness-of-fit test of distribution. Data set, where the underlying failure process could not be adequately described by the existing models, which motivated the development of the Erlang model. Analysis of the failure data set which led us to the Erlang model, using arithmetic and Laplace trend tests, goodness-of-fit test, bias tests is presented.

Geoid Determination in South Korea from a Combination of Terrestrial and Airborne Gravity Anomaly Data

  • Jekeli, Christopher;Yang, Hyo Jin;Kwon, Jay Hyoun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.31 no.6_2
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    • pp.567-576
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    • 2013
  • The determination of the geoid in South Korea is a national imperative for the modernization of height datums, specifically the orthometric height and the dynamic height, that are used to monitor hydrological systems and environments with accuracy and easy revision, if necessary. The geometric heights above a reference ellipsoid, routinely obtained by GPS, lead immediately to vertical control with respect to the geoid for hydrological purposes if the geoid height above the ellipsoid is known accurately. The geoid height is determined from gravimetric data, traditionally ground data, but in recent times also from airborne data. This paper illustrates the basic concepts for combining these two types of data and gives a preliminary performance assessment of either set or their combination for the determination of the geoid in South Korea. It is shown that the most critical aspect of the combination is the gravitational effect of the topographic masses above the geoid, which, if not properly taken into account, introduces a significant bias of about 8 mgal in the gravity anomalies, and which can lead to geoid height bias errors of up to 10 cm. It is further confirmed and concluded that achieving better than 5 cm precision in geoid heights from gravimetry remains a challenge that can be surmounted only with the proper combination of terrestrial and airborne data, thus realizing higher data resolution over most of South Korea than currently available solely from the airborne data.

NHPP Software Reliability Model based on Generalized Gamma Distribution (일반화 감마 분포를 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰도 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.10 no.6 s.38
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 2005
  • Finite failure NHPP models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates Per fault. This Paper Proposes reliability model using the generalized gamma distribution, which can capture the monotonic increasing(or monotonic decreasing) nature of the failure occurrence rate per fault. Equations to estimate the parameters of the generalized gamma finite failure NHPP model based on failure data collected in the form of interfailure times are developed. For the sake of proposing shape parameter of the generalized gamma distribution, used to the special pattern. Data set, where the underlying failure process could not be adequately described by the knowing models, which motivated the development of the gamma or Weibull model. Analysis of failure data set for the generalized gamma modell, using arithmetic and Laplace trend tests . goodness-of-fit test, bias tests is presented.

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Evaluation of horizontal position Accuracy of Facilities in Digital Map (수치지도 상에 있는 시설물들에 대한 수평위치 정확도 평가)

  • Choi, Seung-Pil;Yang, In-Tae;Cho, Jee-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.10 no.4 s.22
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2002
  • The accuracy of Digital Map does not meet the user's expectation, including the many errors caused while producing the project, this will be useless resulting waste of enormous national budget. To solve this Accuracy problem, clear regulations about the position accuracy of scaled Digital Map should be set immediately and provide the users with accurate information about Digital Map enabling the users to use Digital Map for each GIS application field. For this reason, the position accuracy evaluation of existing Digital Maps produced in diverse methods is on demand. In this study, therefore, we performed horizontal position survey of local selected Facilities Total Station equipment to evaluate the horizontal position accuracy of 1:1,000, 1:5,000 scaled Digital Map, obtained standard deviation using the results, performed T-Test to confirm the presence of bias and evaluated the position accuracy of Digital Map.

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The Analysis of Changma Structure using Radiosonde Observational Data from KEOP-2007: Part I. the Assessment of the Radiosonde Data (KEOP-2007 라디오존데 관측자료를 이용한 장마 특성 분석: Part I. 라디오존데 관측 자료 평가 분석)

  • Kim, Ki-Hoon;Kim, Yeon-Hee;Chang, Dong-Eon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.213-226
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    • 2009
  • In order to investigate the characteristics of Changma over the Korean peninsula, KEOP-2007 IOP (Intensive Observing Period) was conducted from 15 June 2007 to 15 July 2007. KEOP-2007 IOP is high spatial and temporal radiosonde observations (RAOB) which consisted of three special stations (Munsan, Haenam, and Ieodo) from National Institute of Meteorological Research, five operational stations (Sokcho, Baengnyeongdo, Pohang, Heuksando, and Gosan) from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and two operational stations (Osan and Gwangju) from Korean Air Force (KAF) using four different types of radiosonde sensors. The error statistics of the sensor of radiosonde were investigated using quality control check. The minimum and maximum error frequency appears at the sensor of RS92-SGP and RS1524L respectively. The error frequency of DFM-06 tends to increase below 200 hPa but RS80-15L and RS1524L show vice versa. Especially, the error frequency of RS1524L tends to increase rapidly over 200 hPa. Systematic biases of radiosonde show warm biases in case of temperature and dry biases in case of relative humidity compared with ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) analysis data and precipitable water vapor from GPS. The maximum and minimum values of systematic bias appear at the sensor of DFM-06 and RS92-SGP in case of temperature and RS80-15L and DFM-06 in case of relative humidity. The systematic warm and dry biases at all sensors tend to increase during daytime than nighttime because air temperature around sensor increases from the solar heating during daytime. Systematic biases of radiosonde are affected by the sensor type and the height of the sun but random errors are more correlated with the moisture conditions at each observation station.

The Study for NHPP Software Reliability Growth Model based on Exponentiated Exponential Distribution (지수화 지수 분포에 의존한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성장 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.11 no.5 s.43
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2006
  • Finite failure NHPP models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, Goel-Okumoto and Yamada-Ohba-Osaki model was reviewed, proposes the exponentiated exponential distribution reliability model, which maked out efficiency substituted for gamma and Weibull model(2 parameter shape illustrated by Gupta and Kundu(2001) Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on SSE, AIC statistics and Kolmogorov distance, for the sake of efficient model, was employed. Analysis of failure using NTDS data set for the sake of proposing shape parameter of the exponentiated exponential distribution was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with the exponentiated exponential distribution model and the existing model (using arithmetic and Laplace trend tests, bias tests) is presented.

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Improvement of Unexpected Pitch Down Tendency of an Aircraft (항공기 기수 숙임 현상 개선)

  • Kim, Chong-Sup;Kwon, Hui-Man;Koh, Gi-Ok;Han, Kwang-Ho;Lee, Seung-Deok;Hwang, Byung-Moon;Kim, Seong-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.162-169
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    • 2011
  • The flight control system utilize RSS(Relaxed Static Stability) criteria in both longitudinal axes to achieve performance enhancements and improve stability. The aircraft using digital flight-by-wire flight control system receives aircraft flight conditions such as pitch, roll and yaw rate, normal acceleration from RSA(Rate Sensor Assembly) and ASA(Acceleration Sensor Assembly). These sensors has permissible measurement error related to system safety of an aircraft but, unexpected flight motions are happened by sensing errors such as offset, noise and etc. The unexpected pitch down tendency occurred by ASA sensor bias in 1g level flight with pilot hands-off. This paper addresses the design and verification of flight control law to improve of pitch down or up tendency caused by ASA sensor bias. The result of analysis and flight test reveals that pitch down tendency can be improved by pitch attitude feedback system.

Joint Range and Angle Estimation of FMCW MIMO Radar (FMCW MIMO 레이다를 이용한 거리-각도 동시 추정 기법)

  • Kim, Junghoon;Song, Sungchan;Chun, Joohwan
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.169-172
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    • 2019
  • Frequency-modulated continuous wave(FMCW) radars with array antennas are widely used because of their light weight and relatively high resolution. A usual approach for the joint range and angle estimation of a target using an array FMCW radar is to create a range-angle matrix with the deramped received signal, and subsequently apply two-dimensional(2D) frequency estimation methods such as 2D fast Fourier transform on the range-angle matrix. However, such frequency estimation approaches cause bias errors since the frequencies in the range-angle matrix are not independent. Therefore, we propose a new maximum likelihood-based algorithm for joint range and angle estimation of targets using array FMCW radar, and demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves the Cram?r-Rao bounds, both for range as well as angle estimation.

Integrated Navigation System Design of Electro-Optical Tracking System with Time-delay and Scale Factor Error Compensation

  • Son, Jae Hoon;Choi, Woojin;Oh, Sang Heon;Hwang, Dong-Hwan
    • Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 2022
  • In order for electro-optical tracking system (EOTS) to have accurate target coordinate, accurate navigation results are required. If an integrated navigation system is configured using an inertial measurement unit (IMU) of EOTS and the vehicle's navigation results, navigation results with high rate can be obtained. Due to the time-delay of the navigation results of the vehicle in the EOTS and scale factor errors of the EOTS IMU in high-speed and high dynamic operation of the vehicle, it is much more difficult to have accurate navigation results. In this paper, an integrated navigation system of EOTS which compensates time-delay and scale factor error is proposed. The proposed integrated navigation system consists of vehicle's navigation system which provides time-delayed navigation results, an EOTS IMU, an inertial navigation system (INS), an augmented Kalman filter and integration Kalman filter. The augmented Kalman filter outputs navigation results, in which the time-delay of the vehicle's navigation results is compensated. The integration Kalman filter estimates position, velocity, attitude error of the EOTS INS and accelerometer bias, accelerometer scale factor error, gyro bias and gyro scale factor error from the difference between the output of the augmented Kalman filter and the navigation result of the EOTS INS. In order to check performance of the proposed integrated navigation system, simulations for output data of a measurement generator and land vehicle experiments were performed. The performance evaluation results show that the proposed integrated navigation system provides more accurate navigation results.