• 제목/요약/키워드: bias error

검색결과 796건 처리시간 0.027초

Sex determination from lateral cephalometric radiographs using an automated deep learning convolutional neural network

  • Khazaei, Maryam;Mollabashi, Vahid;Khotanlou, Hassan;Farhadian, Maryam
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • 제52권3호
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    • pp.239-244
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: Despite the proliferation of numerous morphometric and anthropometric methods for sex identification based on linear, angular, and regional measurements of various parts of the body, these methods are subject to error due to the observer's knowledge and expertise. This study aimed to explore the possibility of automated sex determination using convolutional neural networks(CNNs) based on lateral cephalometric radiographs. Materials and Methods: Lateral cephalometric radiographs of 1,476 Iranian subjects (794 women and 682 men) from 18 to 49 years of age were included. Lateral cephalometric radiographs were considered as a network input and output layer including 2 classes(male and female). Eighty percent of the data was used as a training set and the rest as a test set. Hyperparameter tuning of each network was done after preprocessing and data augmentation steps. The predictive performance of different architectures (DenseNet, ResNet, and VGG) was evaluated based on their accuracy in test sets. Results: The CNN based on the DenseNet121 architecture, with an overall accuracy of 90%, had the best predictive power in sex determination. The prediction accuracy of this model was almost equal for men and women. Furthermore, with all architectures, the use of transfer learning improved predictive performance. Conclusion: The results confirmed that a CNN could predict a person's sex with high accuracy. This prediction was independent of human bias because feature extraction was done automatically. However, for more accurate sex determination on a wider scale, further studies with larger sample sizes are desirable.

CMIP6 GCMs 기후에 따른 유출 모의에 대한 편의보정 방법의 영향 평가 (Assessing the Impact of Bias Correction on Runoff simulation according to CMIP6 GCMs climate)

  • 채승택;김진혁;정은성
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.91-91
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    • 2023
  • General circulation models(GCMs)은 여러 국가 기관들의 물리적 기후 모의 프로세스를 기반으로 과거 및 미래 기후변화의 영향을 정량화하기 위해 개발되었으며 현재 미래 기후변화를 예측하는데 가장 효과적인 도구이다. 그러나 GCMs에 내포된 여러 불확실성 요소 및 넓은 격자형식의 기후 데이터는 GCMs 기후 데이터를 사용한 지역적 기후 모의 시 주요 걸림돌로 인식되어지고 있다. 편의보정 방법은 GCMs을 사용한 지역적 기후 모의 시 기후 모의 성능을 향상시키기 위해 여러 연구에서 사용되어져 왔으나 다른 연구에서는 이러한 편의보정 방법의 문제점을 언급했다. 따라서 본 연구는 편의보정 방법이 GCMs 기후 모의 결과에 미치는 영향을 정량화하고 더 나아가 GCMs 기후 변수에 따른 유량 모의 결과에 미치는 영향을 분석했다. 연구대상지 과거 기간 기후 모의를 위해 coupled model intercomparison project(CMIP)6의 GCMs을 사용했으며, 미래 기후 모의를 위해 shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP) 시나리오를 사용했다. 편의보정 방법으로는 분위사상법을 사용했으며, 편의보정 전후 GCMs 기후 모의 성능평가를 위해 5개 평가 지표를 사용했다. 연구대상지 장기 유출 모의를 위해 storm water management model(SWMM)이 사용되었으며, 기후 입력 자료로는 일 단위 강수량, 최고 및 최저온도를 고려했다. 미래 기후 및 유량 모의 결과의 불확실성은 square root of error variance(SREV) 방법을 통해 정량화됐다. 결과적으로 과거 기간 GCMs 기후 및 유량 모의성능은 편의보정 전보다 편의보정 후에서 향상되었으며 특히, 강수 및 유량 모의 성능이 크게 향상되었다. 미래 기간의 경우 편의보정 후에서 기후 및 유량의 극값을 더 잘 반영함을 확인했다. 본 연구의 결과는 GCMs 기후 변수를 사용한 지역적 기후 및 유량 모의 시 편의보정 방법이 미치는 영향에 대한 구체적인 정보를 제공할 수 있다.

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Argo 플로트와 표류부이 관측자료를 활용한 기상청 전지구 해양모델 (NEMO)의 검증: 최신 미해군 해양모델(HYCOM)과 비교 (Verification of the KMA Ocean Model NEMO against Argo Floats and Drift Buoys: a Comparison with the Up-to-date US Navy HYCOM)

  • 현승훤;황승언;이상민;추성호
    • 대기
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.71-84
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    • 2022
  • This paper describes verification results for the ocean analysis field produced by the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) against observed Argo floats and drift buoys over the western Pacific Ocean and the equatorial Pacific during 2020~2021. This is confirmed by a comparison of the verification for the newly updated version of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model/Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM/NCODA) against same observations. NEMO shows that the vertical ocean temperature is much closer to the Argo floats than HYCOM for most seasons in terms of bias and root mean square error. On the other hand, there are overall considerable cold biases for HYCOM, which may be due to the more rapid decreasing temperature at the shallow thermocline in HYCOM. Conclusion demonstrated that the NEMO analysis for ocean temperature is more reliable than the analysis produced by the latest version of HYCOM as well as by the out-of-date HYCOM applied to the precedent study. The surface ocean current produced by NEMO also shows 14% closer to the AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) in situ drift buoys observations than HYCOM over the western Pacific Ocean. Over the equatorial Pacific, however, HYCOM shows slightly closer to AOML observation than NEMO in some seasons. Overall, this study suggests that the resulting information may be used to promote more use of NEMO analysis.

Assessments of the GEMS NO2 Products Using Ground-Based Pandora and In-Situ Instruments over Busan, South Korea

  • Serin Kim;Ukkyo Jeong;Hanlim Lee;Yeonjin Jung;Jae Hwan Kim
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제40권1호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2024
  • Busan is the 6th largest port city in the world, where nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions from transportation and port industries are significant. This study aims to assess the NO2 products of the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) over Busan using ground-based instruments (i.e., surface in-situ network and Pandora). The GEMS vertical column densities of NO2 showed reasonable consistency in the spatiotemporal variations, comparable to the previous studies. The GEMS data showed a consistent seasonal trend of NO2 with the Korea Ministry of Environment network and Pandora in 2022, which is higher in winter and lower in summer. These agreements prove the capability of the GEMS data to monitor the air quality in Busan. The correlation coefficient and the mean bias error between the GEMS and Pandora NO2 over Busan in 2022 were 0.53 and 0.023 DU, respectively. The GEMS NO2 data were also positively correlated with the ground-based in-situ network with a correlation coefficient of 0.42. However, due to the significant spatiotemporal variabilities of the NO2, the GEMS footprint size can hardly resolve small-scale variabilities such as the emissions from the road and point sources. In addition, relative biases of the GEMS NO2 retrievals to the Pandora data showed seasonal variabilities, which is attributable to the air mass factor estimation of the GEMS. Further studies with more measurement locations for longer periods of data can better contribute to assessing the GEMS NO2 data. Reliable GEMS data can further help us understand the Asian air quality with the diurnal variabilities.

연속 순위 확률 점수를 활용한 통합 앙상블 모델에 대한 기온 및 습도 후처리 모델 개발 (Enhancing Medium-Range Forecast Accuracy of Temperature and Relative Humidity over South Korea using Minimum Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) Statistical Correction Technique)

  • 복혜정;김준수;김연희;조은주;김승범
    • 대기
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2024
  • The Korea Meteorological Administration has improved medium-range weather forecasts by implementing post-processing methods to minimize numerical model errors. In this study, we employ a statistical correction technique known as the minimum continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to refine medium-range forecast guidance. This technique quantifies the similarity between the predicted values and the observed cumulative distribution function of the Unified Model Ensemble Prediction System for Global (UM EPSG). We evaluated the performance of the medium-range forecast guidance for surface air temperature and relative humidity, noting significant enhancements in seasonal bias and root mean squared error compared to observations. Notably, compared to the existing the medium-range forecast guidance, temperature forecasts exhibit 17.5% improvement in summer and 21.5% improvement in winter. Humidity forecasts also show 12% improvement in summer and 23% improvement in winter. The results indicate that utilizing the minimum CRPS for medium-range forecast guidance provide more reliable and improved performance than UM EPSG.

국내 기준국의 GPS 코드 다중경로오차 격자지도 생성 (Developing GPS Code Multipath Grid Map (CMGM) of Domestic Reference Station)

  • 김규민;김기민;박찬덕
    • Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2024
  • This study develops a Global Positioning System (GPS) Code Multipath Grid Map (CMGM) of each individual domestic reference station from the extracted code multipath of measurement data. Multipath corresponds to signal reflection/refraction caused by obstacles around the receiver antenna, and it is a major source of error that cannot be eliminated by differencing. From the receiver-independent exchange format (RINEX) data for two days, the associated code multipath of a satellite tracking arc is extracted. These code multipath data go through bias correction and interpolation to yield the CMGM with respect to the azimuth and elevation angles. The effect of the CMGM on multipath mitigation is then quantitatively analyzed to improve the Root Mean Square (RMS) of averaged pseudo multipath. Furthermore, the single point positioning (SPP) accuracy is analyzed in terms of the RMS of the horizontal and vertical errors. During two weeks in February 2023, the RMSs of the averaged pseudo multipath for five reference stations decreased by about 40% on average after CMGM application. Also, the SPP accuracies increased by about 7% for horizontal errors and about 10% for vertical errors on average after CMGM application. The overall quantitative analysis indicates that the proposed approach will reduce the convergence time of Differential Global Navigation Satellite System (DGNSS), Real-Time Kinematic (RTK), and Precise Point Positioning (PPP)-RTK correction information in real-time to use measurement data whose code multipath is corrected and mitigated by the CMGM.

사과생산량에 영향을 미치는 기상요인 분석 (Examining Impact of Weather Factors on Apple Yield)

  • 김미리;김승규
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.274-284
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    • 2014
  • 농업은 기후 및 환경의 영향을 많이 받는 산업으로 기온, 강수량, 일조시간 등에 따라 재배 가능한 작물 과 품종이 결정된다. 본 연구의 목적은 사과의 생육과정에서 일별로 측정되는 기상변수를 활용하여 기상변수가 사과단수에 미치는 영향을 파악하는 것에 있다. 기상변수는 1) 생육단계를 고려한 자연과학적 접근방법과 2) 통계적 접근방법을 이용한다. 패널분석을 통해 추정된 각각의 결과를 모형적합도와 예측력 비교를 통해 평가한다. 사과단수와 기상변수의 자료는 2006년부터 2013년까지 우리나라 사과주산지 15개지역을 대상으로 수집되었다. 분석 결과, 통계적 접근방법 중요인분석을 이용한 변수 선정 방법이 가장 높은 예측력과 적합도를 보였다. 이는 기상변수와 같이 서로 유사하지만 다양한 설명변수의 사용으로 발생할 수 있는 다중공선성과 낮은 자유도의 문제를 효과적으로 통제하게 될 경우, 보다 많은 기상요인을 회귀분석에 포함하는 것이 적합도와 예측력을 높이는데 기여한 것으로 추정된다. 또한 사과재배에 있어 발아, 개화, 착과, 비대, 성숙, 그리고 착색 및 수확에 이르기까지의 전 생육과정의 기상요인이 단수에 영향력이 있음을 의미한다.

Retrieval and Validation of Precipitable Water Vapor using GPS Datasets of Mobile Observation Vehicle on the Eastern Coast of Korea

  • Kim, Yoo-Jun;Kim, Seon-Jeong;Kim, Geon-Tae;Choi, Byoung-Choel;Shim, Jae-Kwan;Kim, Byung-Gon
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.365-382
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    • 2016
  • The results from the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of the Mobile Observation Vehicle (MOVE) on the eastern coast of Korea have been compared with REFerence (REF) values from the fixed GPS sites to assess the performance of Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) retrievals in a kinematic environment. MOVE-PWV retrievals had comparatively similar trends and fairly good agreements with REF-PWV with a Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of 7.4 mm and $R^2$ of 0.61, indicating statistical significance with a p-value of 0.01. PWV retrievals from the June cases showed better agreement than those of the other month cases, with a mean bias of 2.1 mm and RMSE of 3.8 mm. We further investigated the relationships of the determinant factors of GPS signals with the PWV retrievals for detailed error analysis. As a result, both MultiPath (MP) errors of L1 and L2 pseudo-range had the best indices for the June cases, 0.75-0.99 m. We also found that both Position Dilution Of Precision (PDOP) and Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) values in the June cases were better than those in other cases. That is, the analytical results of the key factors such as MP errors, PDOP, and SNR that can affect GPS signals should be considered for obtaining more stable performance. The data of MOVE can be used to provide water vapor information with high spatial and temporal resolutions in the case of dramatic changes of severe weather such as those frequently occurring in the Korean Peninsula.

아시아 Fluxnet 자료를 활용한 보완관계 기반 증발산량 추정 (Estimating Evapotranspiration with the Complementary Relationship at Fluxnet Sites Over Asia)

  • 서호철;김정빈;박혜선;김연주
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제37권2호
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    • pp.303-310
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    • 2017
  • 증발산량은 수자원 부존량 평가, 물수지 분석, 지구의 물 순환 및 에너지 순환을 이해하기 위해서 알아야 할 중요한 수문량이다. 실제 증발산량이 습윤조건의 증발산량의 2배에서 잠재 증발산량을 제한 것과 같다는 보완관계(Complimentary relationship)를 기반으로 기상관측망 지점에서 일반적으로 관측되는 기상 자료를 이용해 증발산량을 산정하는 방법이 다양하게 개발되어 왔다. 이 중 Granger and Gary (GG)방법은 보완관계를 기반으로 경험적인 매개변수를 도입하여, 지역의 기온 등의 자료만 활용하여 증발산량을 산정할 수 있도록 하는 경험식이다. 본 연구에서는 FLUXNET2015 자료 중 아시아 지역 내의 10개 지점에서 에디공분산법을 활용해서 관측된 증발산량 자료를 GG방법을 활용하여 산정한 증발산량과 비교하였다. 내륙지역의 경우 해안지역에 비해 상대적으로 정확하게 증발산량이 추정되었고, 이에 해안지역의 경우에만 담금질 기법(Simulated Annealing, SA)을 활용하여 GG방법의 매개변수를 수정하였다. 수정된 GG방법을 활용하여 증발산량 추정 결과의 Root mean square error, Coefficient of determination($R^2$), Mean absolute BIAS를 개선할 수 있었다.

Preliminary study on the use of near infrared spectroscopy for determination of plasma deuterium oxide in dairy cattle

  • Purnomoadi, Agung;Nonaka, Itoko;Higuchi, Kouji;Enishi, Osamu;Amari, Masahiro;Terada, Fuminori
    • 한국근적외분광분석학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국근적외분광분석학회 2001년도 NIR-2001
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    • pp.4101-4101
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    • 2001
  • Information of body composition (fat and protein) in living animal is important to determine the nutrients requirement. Deuterium oxide (D2O) dilution techniques, as one of isotope dilution techniques have been useful for the prediction of body composition. However, the determination of D2O concentration is time consuming and complicated. Therefore this study was conducted to develop a new method to predict D2O concentration in plasma using near infrared spectroscopy technique (NIRS). Four dairy cows in early lactation were used. They were fed total mixed ration containing conr silage, timothy hay, and concentrates to make 17.0%CP and 14.0 MJDE/kgDM. Dosing D2O was at week 1,3 and 5 after parturition. After dosing D2O, the blood was collected from hour 0 to 72. Blood samples were then centrifuge at 3,000 rpm for 10 minutes to obtain plasma. D2O concentration was analyzed by gas chromatograph (deuterium oxide analyzable system, HK102, Shokotsusyou) after extracted from plasma by liophilization. Plasma sample was scanned by NIRS using Pacific Scientific (Neotec) model 6500 (Perstorp Analytical, Silver Spring, MD) in the range of wavelength from 1100 to 2500 nm. Calibration equation was developed using multiple linear regression. Sample from one animal (cow #550; n: 74) was used for developing the calibration while the rest three animals were used for validating the equation. The range, R and SEC of the calibration set samples were 135-925 ppm, 0.93 and 48.1 ppm, respectively. Validation of the calibration equation for three individual cows was done and the average of NIR predicted value of D2O at each collection time from three weeks injection showed a high correlation. The range, r and 53 of plasma from cow #474 were 322-840 ppm,0.93 and 53.1; cow #478 were 146-951 ppm,0.95 and 39.8; cow #942 were 313-885 ppm,0.95 and 37.2, respectively. Judgement of accuracy based on ratio of standard deviation and standard error in validation set samples (RPD) for cow #474, #478 and #942 were 2.2,4.3 and 3.4, respectively. The error in application due to the variation between individual was considered smaller than the bias from collection period, however, this prediction can be overcome with correction of standard zero-minute concentration of blood. The results of this preliminary study on the use of NIRS for determination of D2O in plasma showed very promising as shown by a convenient and satisfy accuracy. Further study on various physiological stage of animal should be done.

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