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A Review of Herbal Medicine Treatments on Aftereffects of Thyroidectomy (갑상선 절제술 후 후유증의 한약 치료에 대한 최신 임상 연구 동향)

  • Soo-duk Kim;Min-jo Seo;Su-na Park;Hye-ri Jo;So-hyeon Ryu;Geon-sik Kong;Yo-sup Choi
    • The Journal of Internal Korean Medicine
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.615-634
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    • 2024
  • Objectives: This study summarizes the current trends and results in clinical studies on herbal medicine treatments after thyroidectomy. Methods: Studies published between 2019 and 2024 were searched for on the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), PubMed, and Research Information Sharing Service (RISS). The studies were analyzed according to year, study design, characteristics of the patients, and traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) intervention. A meta-analysis was conducted and classified according to the outcome measurements, such as the total effective rate (TER), thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free T4 (FT4), self-rating depression scale (SDS), CD3+, CD4+, and CD8+. CD8+. Results: A total of 18 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and 5 non-randomized controlled trials were reviewed. The most common herbal prescriptions were decoctions made from Yangyin Sanjie (Yangeumsangyeol-tang), Yiqi Sanjie (Ikgisangyeol-tang), Yiqi Yangyin Sanjie (Ikgiyangeumsangyeol-tang), Yiqi Yangyin (Ikgiyangeum-tang), and Huiyan Zhuyu (Hoeyeomchugeo-tang). The most frequently used herbs were Prunellae Spica, Scrophulariae Radix, and Astragali Radix. The meta-analysis found that the group using both herbal and Western medicine was benefited more than the group using Western medicine alone (RR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.20-1.37, P<0.00001). The experimental group had higher TSH, CD3+, and CD4+ levels, while FT4, SDS, and CD8++ were lower. However, due to high study heterogeneity, the results were not statistically significant. Conclusion: Complications after thyroidectomy include hypothyroidism, hypoparathyroidism, and psychological aftereffects. Herbal and conventional treatments showed potential in improving hormone levels, immune function, and depression, but statistical significance was limited due to study variability. These results should be interpreted cautiously given the risk of bias in the trials.

The Competition Policy and Major Industrial Policy-Making in the 1980's (1980년대 주요산업정책(主要産業政策) 결정(決定)과 경쟁정책(競爭政策): 역할(役割)과 한계(限界))

  • Choi, Jong-won
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.97-127
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    • 1991
  • This paper investigates the roles and the limitations of the Korean antitrust agencies-the Office of Fair Trade (OFT) and the Fair Trade Commission (FTC) during the making of the major industrial policies of the 1980's. The Korean antitrust agencies played only a minimal role in three major industrial policy-making issues in the 1980's- the enactment of the Industrial Development Act (IDA), the Industrial Rationalization Measures according to the IDA, and the Industrial Readjustment Measures on Consolidation of Large Insolvent Enterprises based on the revised Tax Exemption and Reduction Control Act. As causes for this performance bias in the Korean antitrust system, this paper considers five factors according to the current literature on implementation failure: ambiguous and insufficient statutory provisions of the Monopoly Regulation and Fair Trade Act (MRFTA); lack of resources; biased attitudes and motivations of the staff of the OFT and the FTC; bureaucratic incapability; and widespread misunderstanding about the roles and functions of the antitrust system in Korea. Among these five factors, bureaucratic incompetence and lack of understanding in various policy implementation environments about the roles and functions of the antitrust system have been regarded as the most important ones. Most staff members did not have enough educational training during their school years to engage in antitrust and fair trade policy-making. Furthermore, the high rate of staff turnover due to a mandatory personnel transfer system has prohibited the accumulation of knowledge and skills required for pursuing complicated structural antitrust enforcement. The limited capability of the OFT has put the agency in a disadvantaged position in negotiating with other economic ministries. The OFT has not provided plausible counter-arguments based on sound economic theories against other economic ministries' intensive market interventions in the name of rationalization and readjustment of industries. If the staff members of antitrust agencies have lacked substantive understanding of the antitrust and fair trade policy, the rest of government agencies must have had serious problems in understanding the correst roles and functions of the antitrust system. The policy environment of the Korean antitrust system, including other economic ministries, the Deputy Prime Minister, and President Chun, have tended to conceptualize the OFT more as an agency aiming only at fair trade policy and less as an agency that should enforce structural monopoly regulation as well. Based on this assessment of the performance of the Korean antitrust system, this paper evaluate current reform proposals for the MRFT A. The inclusion of the regulation of conglomerate mergers and of business divestiture orders may be a desirable revision, giving the MRFTA more complete provisions. However, given deficient staff experties and the unfavorable policy environments, it would be too optimistic and naive to expect that the inclusion of these provisions alone could improve the performance of the Korean antitrust system. In its conclusion, this paper suggests several policy recommendations for the Korean antitrust system, which would secure the stable development and accumulation of antitrust expertise for its staff members and enough understanding and conformity from its environments about its antitrust goals and functions.

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DEVELOPMENT OF SAFETY-BASED LEVEL-OF-SERVICE CRITERIA FOR ISOLATED SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS (독립신호 교차로에서의 교통안전을 위한 서비스수준 결정방법의 개발)

  • Dr. Tae-Jun Ha
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.3-32
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    • 1995
  • The Highway Capacity Manual specifies procedures for evaluating intersection performance in terms of delay per vehicle. What is lacking in the current methodology is a comparable quantitative procedure for ass~ssing the safety-based level of service provided to motorists. The objective of the research described herein was to develop a computational procedure for evaluating the safety-based level of service of signalized intersections based on the relative hazard of alternative intersection designs and signal timing plans. Conflict opportunity models were developed for those crossing, diverging, and stopping maneuvers which are associated with left-turn and rear-end accidents. Safety¬based level-of-service criteria were then developed based on the distribution of conflict opportunities computed from the developed models. A case study evaluation of the level of service analysis methodology revealed that the developed safety-based criteria were not as sensitive to changes in prevailing traffic, roadway, and signal timing conditions as the traditional delay-based measure. However, the methodology did permit a quantitative assessment of the trade-off between delay reduction and safety improvement. The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) specifies procedures for evaluating intersection performance in terms of a wide variety of prevailing conditions such as traffic composition, intersection geometry, traffic volumes, and signal timing (1). At the present time, however, performance is only measured in terms of delay per vehicle. This is a parameter which is widely accepted as a meaningful and useful indicator of the efficiency with which an intersection is serving traffic needs. What is lacking in the current methodology is a comparable quantitative procedure for assessing the safety-based level of service provided to motorists. For example, it is well¬known that the change from permissive to protected left-turn phasing can reduce left-turn accident frequency. However, the HCM only permits a quantitative assessment of the impact of this alternative phasing arrangement on vehicle delay. It is left to the engineer or planner to subjectively judge the level of safety benefits, and to evaluate the trade-off between the efficiency and safety consequences of the alternative phasing plans. Numerous examples of other geometric design and signal timing improvements could also be given. At present, the principal methods available to the practitioner for evaluating the relative safety at signalized intersections are: a) the application of engineering judgement, b) accident analyses, and c) traffic conflicts analysis. Reliance on engineering judgement has obvious limitations, especially when placed in the context of the elaborate HCM procedures for calculating delay. Accident analyses generally require some type of before-after comparison, either for the case study intersection or for a large set of similar intersections. In e.ither situation, there are problems associated with compensating for regression-to-the-mean phenomena (2), as well as obtaining an adequate sample size. Research has also pointed to potential bias caused by the way in which exposure to accidents is measured (3, 4). Because of the problems associated with traditional accident analyses, some have promoted the use of tqe traffic conflicts technique (5). However, this procedure also has shortcomings in that it.requires extensive field data collection and trained observers to identify the different types of conflicts occurring in the field. The objective of the research described herein was to develop a computational procedure for evaluating the safety-based level of service of signalized intersections that would be compatible and consistent with that presently found in the HCM for evaluating efficiency-based level of service as measured by delay per vehicle (6). The intent was not to develop a new set of accident prediction models, but to design a methodology to quantitatively predict the relative hazard of alternative intersection designs and signal timing plans.

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우리나라 농촌지역의 출산조절행태 및 출산조절행위의 결정요인 분석

  • Chung, Kyung-Hee;Han, Seung-Hyun;Bang, Sook
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.33-53
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    • 1988
  • This study aimed at developing a desirable family planning policy and strategy by examining the current status of family planning practice in rural Korea and by indentifying the crucial factors which affect fertility control behavior. For this purpose, an analytical study was conducted, using the survey data collected in July 1985, on an interview basis, on 1, 440 married women living in the Soyi, Wonnam and Maingdong townships of Eumseong County(in North Chungcheong Province). This study population has the typical characteristics of rural areas, and the results of the analysis can be summarized as follows: 1. In regard to the demographic characteristics of the study population : their average age at marriage was 23.7, they had an average of 2.6 children( 1.3 boys, 1.3 girls) :10% experienced the death of their child (ren) :14% had spontaneous abortion(s) :4% weathered stillbirth(s) :35% went through induced abortion (s) : and 5.5% were currently pregnant. The average of their ideal numbers of children was 2.2, while 44% felt that they must have a son. 2. Looking at the contact rate with medical & health institutions, over the past 1 year, the visit rate to health subcenters was 43.7%, while 26.9% visited the (county) health center :59.6% had been to private clinics : and 41.5% went to the Soonchunhyang - Eumsung hospital : thus showing a relatively high rate of accessibility. 3. The utilization rate of family planning services was 76.5%, with tubectomy being the most prominent method at 52.3%, while the informants were health workers in 54.2% of the acceptors. Of the 8.4% who discontinued the use of contraceptive methods, only 26% did so due to want for pregnancy, natural infertility (meno - pause), or other reasons, while the remaining 74% stopped usage on account of side effects, failure in the methods themselves, and inconvenience of use, thus pointing to a situation where the proper choice of family planning methods have not yet been made. It can be noted that there is a strong motivation for early birth stopping as 35.3% practice family planning even with only one child, of which 38.3% have had sterilization operations. According to results of a multiple regression analysis, among the variables affecting contraception usage the most significant variable was the number of sons. 4. 34.8% experienced induced abortions. It was shown as a result of multiple regression analysis that the number of children and attitudes toward induced abortions extensively affected their frequency of abortions conducted. 5. In the regard to the relation between family planning and induced abortions, 33.7% of the women used both, while 52.0% of them used only the former(family planning), with only 1.4 % utilizing solely the latter(abortion), and 12.9% totally abstaining from fertility regulation : again, the discriminant analysis indicated that the choice of family planning and/or induced abortion was determined by the number of children and attitudes toward induced abortion. In view of the above mentioned results, the following are some comments and suggestions concerning problems related to the current family planning policies, in Korea : 1. It is difficult to expect a further quantitative expansion in family planning program operations, as there has been an excessive supply of target-oriented sterilization operations on women. From a maternal and child health care point of view, it will be desirable to have a diversification of service points in the future where family planning methods may be properly chosen, so that choices of methods which suit the mothers' characteristics and tastes may be made by the individuals themselves by strengthening their quality of family planning information services. 2. Along with the strengthening of the qualitative improvement of family planning services policies must be implemented to effectively promote the moral (ethical) deterrents to induced abortions and to preference for sons. From a maternal care standpoint, the social permissive norm toward induced abortion must be modified, and the bias towards son must be analyzed as the women with more daughters have a lower rate of family planning acceptance. Such changes in attitudes, however, can not be hoped to be accomplished with ad hoc policies, but will only be possible when an enhancement of the women's status(within the society) is brought about in a long - term perspective.

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Search for an archaic form of Jain-Danoje - Focucing on 'Yeowonmoo' and 'Hojanggut' - (자인단오제의 고형(古形)에 관한 탐색 - '여원무'와 '호장굿'을 중심으로 -)

  • Han, Yang-myung
    • (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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    • no.19
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    • pp.5-33
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    • 2009
  • Jain-Danoje's course since modern is not different with almost all of folk performances, which were restored and reconstructed with a background of the designation of an intangible cultural heritage and National folk arts contest sine the 1960s. Generally, these folk performances were decontextualized in course of extinction and reappearance, and recontextualized in course of new directions on tradition. Also, the performances were interpreted differently and transformed by the main constituents of reappearance. Jain-Danoje nowadays has a regular form just at that time that has been designated as a cultural heritage at 1970s. But, today's Jain-Danoje is clearly different with the last appearance in 1936 and some Literature and jainhyun-eupji. I think such differences would stems from the process of reproduction. From this perspective, I had investigate Old literature and the early days report, and the current text. Especially, I will show the considerable change which has been occurred in the Yeowonmu and Hojanggut, the central role to configure that identity, by comparing past and today. As a result of consideration, today's form of the Yeowonmu and Hojanggut are created texts that mind the designation of an intangible cultural heritage and National folk arts contest. These texts has been reproduced without understanding about structure and current of folk festival and state of performance which has been transmitted on premodern society. some intellectuals search for an archaic form of Jain-Danoje based on jainhyun-eupji that created in 1895, except the other jainhyun-eupji. Moreover, because of the understanding with a bias, they can't grasp the meaning about the religious service for Hanjanggun, and they can't see the facts of Yeowonmoo. In addition, they were aware of 'o-sin' that led by Hojang as a fancy dress parade in a carnival, and that is recognized as a component of Jain-Danoje, so there was other text which is different from our own festival.

The Effect of Common Features on Consumer Preference for a No-Choice Option: The Moderating Role of Regulatory Focus (재몰유선택적정황하공동특성대우고객희호적영향(在没有选择的情况下共同特性对于顾客喜好的影响): 조절초점적조절작용(调节焦点的调节作用))

  • Park, Jong-Chul;Kim, Kyung-Jin
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2010
  • This study researches the effects of common features on a no-choice option with respect to regulatory focus theory. The primary interest is in three factors and their interrelationship: common features, no-choice option, and regulatory focus. Prior studies have compiled vast body of research in these areas. First, the "common features effect" has been observed bymany noted marketing researchers. Tversky (1972) proposed the seminal theory, the EBA model: elimination by aspect. According to this theory, consumers are prone to focus only on unique features during comparison processing, thereby dismissing any common features as redundant information. Recently, however, more provocative ideas have attacked the EBA model by asserting that common features really do affect consumer judgment. Chernev (1997) first reported that adding common features mitigates the choice gap because of the increasing perception of similarity among alternatives. Later, however, Chernev (2001) published a critically developed study against his prior perspective with the proposition that common features may be a cognitive load to consumers, and thus consumers are possible that they are prone to prefer the heuristic processing to the systematic processing. This tends to bring one question to the forefront: Do "common features" affect consumer choice? If so, what are the concrete effects? This study tries to answer the question with respect to the "no-choice" option and regulatory focus. Second, some researchers hold that the no-choice option is another best alternative of consumers, who are likely to avoid having to choose in the context of knotty trade-off settings or mental conflicts. Hope for the future also may increase the no-choice option in the context of optimism or the expectancy of a more satisfactory alternative appearing later. Other issues reported in this domain are time pressure, consumer confidence, and alternative numbers (Dhar and Nowlis 1999; Lin and Wu 2005; Zakay and Tsal 1993). This study casts the no-choice option in yet another perspective: the interactive effects between common features and regulatory focus. Third, "regulatory focus theory" is a very popular theme in recent marketing research. It suggests that consumers have two focal goals facing each other: promotion vs. prevention. A promotion focus deals with the concepts of hope, inspiration, achievement, or gain, whereas prevention focus involves duty, responsibility, safety, or loss-aversion. Thus, while consumers with a promotion focus tend to take risks for gain, the same does not hold true for a prevention focus. Regulatory focus theory predicts consumers' emotions, creativity, attitudes, memory, performance, and judgment, as documented in a vast field of marketing and psychology articles. The perspective of the current study in exploring consumer choice and common features is a somewhat creative viewpoint in the area of regulatory focus. These reviews inspire this study of the interaction possibility between regulatory focus and common features with a no-choice option. Specifically, adding common features rather than omitting them may increase the no-choice option ratio in the choice setting only to prevention-focused consumers, but vice versa to promotion-focused consumers. The reasoning is that when prevention-focused consumers come in contact with common features, they may perceive higher similarity among the alternatives. This conflict among similar options would increase the no-choice ratio. Promotion-focused consumers, however, are possible that they perceive common features as a cue of confirmation bias. And thus their confirmation processing would make their prior preference more robust, then the no-choice ratio may shrink. This logic is verified in two experiments. The first is a $2{\times}2$ between-subject design (whether common features or not X regulatory focus) using a digital cameras as the relevant stimulus-a product very familiar to young subjects. Specifically, the regulatory focus variable is median split through a measure of eleven items. Common features included zoom, weight, memory, and battery, whereas the other two attributes (pixel and price) were unique features. Results supported our hypothesis that adding common features enhanced the no-choice ratio only to prevention-focus consumers, not to those with a promotion focus. These results confirm our hypothesis - the interactive effects between a regulatory focus and the common features. Prior research had suggested that including common features had a effect on consumer choice, but this study shows that common features affect choice by consumer segmentation. The second experiment was used to replicate the results of the first experiment. This experimental study is equal to the prior except only two - priming manipulation and another stimulus. For the promotion focus condition, subjects had to write an essay using words such as profit, inspiration, pleasure, achievement, development, hedonic, change, pursuit, etc. For prevention, however, they had to use the words persistence, safety, protection, aversion, loss, responsibility, stability etc. The room for rent had common features (sunshine, facility, ventilation) and unique features (distance time and building state). These attributes implied various levels and valence for replication of the prior experiment. Our hypothesis was supported repeatedly in the results, and the interaction effects were significant between regulatory focus and common features. Thus, these studies showed the dual effects of common features on consumer choice for a no-choice option. Adding common features may enhance or mitigate no-choice, contradictory as it may sound. Under a prevention focus, adding common features is likely to enhance the no-choice ratio because of increasing mental conflict; under the promotion focus, it is prone to shrink the ratio perhaps because of a "confirmation bias." The research has practical and theoretical implications for marketers, who may need to consider common features carefully in a practical display context according to consumer segmentation (i.e., promotion vs. prevention focus.) Theoretically, the results suggest some meaningful moderator variable between common features and no-choice in that the effect on no-choice option is partly dependent on a regulatory focus. This variable corresponds not only to a chronic perspective but also a situational perspective in our hypothesis domain. Finally, in light of some shortcomings in the research, such as overlooked attribute importance, low ratio of no-choice, or the external validity issue, we hope it influences future studies to explore the little-known world of the "no-choice option."

Accuracy Analysis of ADCP Stationary Discharge Measurement for Unmeasured Regions (ADCP 정지법 측정 시 미계측 영역의 유량 산정 정확도 분석)

  • Kim, Jongmin;Kim, Seojun;Son, Geunsoo;Kim, Dongsu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.7
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    • pp.553-566
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    • 2015
  • Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers(ADCPs) have capability to concurrently capitalize three-dimensional velocity vector and bathymetry with highly efficient and rapid manner, and thereby enabling ADCPs to document the hydrodynamic and morphologic data in very high spatial and temporal resolution better than other contemporary instruments. However, ADCPs are also limited in terms of the inevitable unmeasured regions near bottom, surface, and edges of a given cross-section. The velocity in those unmeasured regions are usually extrapolated or assumed for calculating flow discharge, which definitely affects the accuracy in the discharge assessment. This study aimed at scrutinizing a conventional extrapolation method(i.e., the 1/6 power law) for estimating the unmeasured regions to figure out the accuracy in ADCP discharge measurements. For the comparative analysis, we collected spatially dense velocity data using ADV as well as stationary ADCP in a real-scale straight river channel, and applied the 1/6 power law for testing its applicability in conjunction with the logarithmic law which is another representative velocity law. As results, the logarithmic law fitted better with actual velocity measurement than the 1/6 power law. In particular, the 1/6 power law showed a tendency to underestimate the velocity in the near surface region and overestimate in the near bottom region. This finding indicated that the 1/6 power law could be unsatisfactory to follow actual flow regime, thus that resulted discharge estimates in both unmeasured top and bottom region can give rise to discharge bias. Therefore, the logarithmic law should be considered as an alternative especially for the stationary ADCP discharge measurement. In addition, it was found that ADCP should be operated in at least more than 0.6 m of water depth in the left and right edges for better estimate edge discharges. In the future, similar comparative analysis might be required for the moving boat ADCP discharge measurement method, which has been more widely used in the field.

The Effect on Pulmonary Indices of Surfactant Therapy for Meconium Aspiration Syndrome: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis (태변흡인증후군에서 폐표면활성제 사용이 호흡기지표에 미치는 영향에 대한 체계적 문헌고찰과 메타분석)

  • Choi, Hyun-Jin;Hahn, Seo-Kyung;Lee, Soon-Min;Kim, Han-Suk;Bae, Chong-Woo
    • Neonatal Medicine
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.189-196
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: Surfactants have been used to improve oxygenation for infants with meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS). We evaluated the change of pulmonary indices after surfactant therapy for MAS through a systematic meta-analysis. Methods: Relevant randomized controlled studies (RCTs) were identified by database searches in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, up to June 2011, and by additional hand searches. Data were extracted regarding pulmonary indices, such as the oxygen index and arterial alveolar oxygen gradient. Meta-analyses were separately conducted for the studies of surfactant lavage therapy and surfactant bolus therapy. The risk of bias was assessed, and clinical as well as statistical heterogeneities were also investigated. Results: Two RCTs for bolus surfactant therapy and two RCTs for surfactant lavage therapy were identified. The oxygenation index results were heterogeneous between the two studies in which bolus surfactant therapy was given, while a/A $PO_2$ showed significantly better results in the treatment group over time after use of surfactant (12 hours: WMD 0.08, 95% CI 0.04-0.12; 24 hours: WMD 0.17, 95% CI 0.06-0.28). For surfactant lavage therapy, both studies consistently suggested an interventional benefit in terms of the pulmonary indices although it did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion: Surfactant therapy appeared to improve oxygenation of infants with MAS. Since a limited number of RCTs are available in the current literature and those studies were also clinically heterogeneous in terms of illness severity and the method of surfactant use, further research is needed to gather evidence to support surfactant therapy in MAS.

A Meta-analysis of Ambient Air Pollution in Relation to Daily Mortality in Seoul, $1991\sim1995$ (메타분석 방법을 적용한 서울시 대기오염과 조기사망의 상관성 연구 (1991년$\sim$1995년))

  • Dockery, Douglas W.;Kim, Chun-Bae;Jee, Sun-Ha;Chung, Yong;Lee, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.177-182
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    • 1999
  • Objectives: To reexamine the association between air pollution and daily mortality in Seoul, Korea using a method of meta-analysis with the data filed for 1991 through 1995. Methods: A separate Poisson regression analysis on each district within the metropolitan area of Seoul was conducted to regress daily death counts on levels of each ambient air pollutant, such as total suspended particulates (TSP), sulfur dioxide $(SO_2)$, and ozone $(O_3)$, controlling for variability in the weather condition. We calculated a weighted mean as a meta-analysis summary of the estimates and its standard error. Results: We found that the p value from each pollutant model to test the homogeneity assumption was small (p<0.01) because of the large disparity among district-specific estimates. Therefore, all results reported here were estimated from the random effect model. Using the weighted mean that we calculated, the mortality at a $100{\mu}g/m^3$ increment in a 3-day moving average of TSP levels was 1.034 (95% Cl 1.009-1.059). The mortality was estimated to increase 6% (95% Cl 3-10%) and 3% (95% Cl 0-6%) with each 50 ppb increase for 9-day moving average of SO2 and 1-hr maximum O3, respectively. Conclusions: Like most of air pollution epidemiologic studies, this meta-analysis cannot avoid fleeing from measurement misclassification since no personal measurement was taken. However, we can expect that a measurement bias be reduced in a district-specific estimate since a monitoring station is hefter representative cf air quality of the matched district. The similar results to those from the previous studios indicated existence of health effect of air pollution at current levels in many industrialized countries, including Korea.

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Evaluation of the Simulated PM2.5 Concentrations using Air Quality Forecasting System according to Emission Inventories - Focused on China and South Korea (대기질 예보 시스템의 입력 배출목록에 따른 PM2.5 모의 성능 평가 - 중국 및 한국을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Ki-Chul;Lim, Yongjae;Lee, Jae-Bum;Nam, Kipyo;Lee, Hansol;Lee, Yonghee;Myoung, Jisu;Kim, Taehee;Jang, Limseok;Kim, Jeong Soo;Woo, Jung-Hun;Kim, Soontae;Choi, Kwang-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.306-320
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    • 2018
  • Emission inventory is the essential component for improving the performance of air quality forecasting system. This study evaluated the simulated daily mean $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations in South Korea and China for 1-year period (Sept. 2016~Aug. 2017) using air quality forecasting system which was applied by the emission inventory of E2015 (predicted CAPSS 2015 for South Korea and KORUS 2015 v1 for the other regions). To identify the impacts of emissions on the simulated $PM_{2.5}$, the emission inventory replaced by E2010 (CAPSS 2010 and MIX 2010) were also applied under the same forecasting conditions. These results showed that simulated daily mean $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations had generally suitable performance with both emission data-sets for China (IOA>0.87, R>0.87) and South Korea (IOA>0.84, R>0.76). The impacts of the changes in emission inventories on simulated daily mean $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations were quantitatively estimated. In China, normalized mean bias (NMB) showed 5.5% and 26.8% under E2010 and E2015, respectively. The tendency of overestimated concentrations was larger in North Central and Southeast China than other regions under both E2010 and E2015. Seasonal differences of NMB were higher in non-winter season (28.3% (E2010)~39.3% (E2015)) than winter season (-0.5% (E2010)~8.0% (E2015)). In South Korea, NMB showed -5.4% and 2.8% for all days, but -15.2% and -11.2% for days below $40{\mu}g/m^3$ to minimize the impacts of long-range transport under E2010 and E2015, respectively. For all days, simulated $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations were overestimated in Seoul, Incheon, Southern part of Gyeonggi and Daejeon, and underestimated in other regions such as Jeonbuk, Ulsan, Busan and Gyeongnam, regardless of what emission inventories were applied. Our results suggest that the updated emission inventory, which reflects current status of emission amounts and spatio-temporal allocations, is needed for improving the performance of air quality forecasting.