• Title/Summary/Keyword: best fit distribution

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Estimation of weibull parameters for wind energy application in Iran's cities

  • Sedghi, Majid;Hannani, Siamak K.;Boroushaki, Mehrdad
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.203-221
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    • 2015
  • Wind speed is the most important parameter in the design and study of wind energy conversion systems. The weibull distribution is commonly used for wind energy analysis as it can represent the wind variations with an acceptable level of accuracy. In this study, the wind data for 11 cities in Iran have been analysed over a period of one year. The Goodness of fit test is used for testing data fit to weibull distribution. The results show that this data fit to weibull function very well. The scale and shape factors are two parameters of the weibull distribution that depend on the area under study. The kinds of numerical methods commonly used for estimating weibull parameters are reviewed. Their performance for the cities under study was compared according to root mean square and wind energy errors. The result of the study reveals the empirical, modified maximum likelihood estimate of wind speed with minimum error. Also, that the moment and modified maximum likelihood are the best methods for estimating the energy production of wind turbines.

An Attempt to Model Distributions of Machined Component Dimensions in Production

  • Cogun, Can;Kilinc, Biinyamin
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.60-74
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    • 2002
  • In this study, normal, log-normal, triangular, uniform. Weibull, Erlang and unit beta probability density functions are tried to represent the behaviour of frequency distributions of workpiece dimensions collected from various manufacturing firms. Among the distribution functions, the unit beta distribution function is found to be the best fit using the chi-square test of fit. An attempt is made for the adoption of the unit beta model to x-bar charts of quality control in manufacturing. In this direction, upper and lower control limits (UCL and LCL) of x-bar control charts of dimension measurements are estimated for the beta model, and the observed differences between the beta and normal model control limits are discussed for the measurement sets.

Determination of the Forming Limit Strain of Sheet Metal Using Inverse Quartic Curve Fitting (역4차식 곡선근사에 의한 판재 성형한계변형률의 결정)

  • Lee, J.S.;Kim, J.D.;Kim, H.J.
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.328-333
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    • 2013
  • The current study aims to determine the limit strains more accurately and reasonably when producing a forming limit curve (FLC) from experiments. The international standard ISO 12004-2 in its recent version (2008) states that the limit major strain should be determined by using the best-fit inverse second-order parabola through the experimental strain distribution. However, in cases where fracture does not occur at the center of the specimen, due to insufficient lubrication, the inverse parabola does not give a realistic fit because of its intrinsic symmetry in shape. In this study it is demonstrated that an inverse quartic function can give a much better fit than an inverse parabola in almost all FLC test samples showing asymmetric strain distributions. Using a quartic fit creates more reliable FLCs.

Estimation on Altitudinal Spectrum of Suitability for Four Species of the Mayfly Genus Ephemera (Ephemeroptera: Ephemeridae) Using Probability Distribution Models (확률분포모형을 이용한 하루살이속(Ephemera) 4종의 고도구배에 따른 서식처적합도 평가)

  • Dongsoo Kong;Bomi Kang
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.302-315
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    • 2023
  • Distribution characteristics and altitudinal gradient of four species (E. strigata, E. separigata, E. orientalis-sachalinensis group) of the mayfly genus Ephemera (Order Ephemeroptera) were analyzed with probability distribution models (exponential, normal, lognormal, logistic, Weibull, gamma, beta, Gumbel). Data was collected from 23,846 sampling units of 6,787 sites in Korea from 2010 to 2021. The beta distribution model showed the best fit for positively skewed E. orientalis-sachalinensis and little-skewed E. strigata along with altitudinal gradient. The reversed lognormal distribution model showed the best-fit for negatively skewed E. separigata. E. orientalis-sachalinensis distributed at the range of altitude 1~700 m (mean 251 m, median 226 m, mode 124 m, and standard deviation 161 m), E. strigata distributed at the range of altitude 5~871 m (mean 474 m, median 478 m, mode 492 m, and standard deviation 200 m), E. separigata distributed at the range of altitude 7~846 m (mean 620 m, median 659 m, mode 760 m, and standard deviation 181 m). Altitudinal habitat suitability ranges were estimated to be 42~257 m for E. orientalis-sachalinensis, 335~644 m for E. strigata, and 641~824 m for E. separigata. Based on the altitudinal spectrum of suitability and altitude-related temperature analysis results, E. orientalis-sachalinensis was estimated to be thermophilic, E. strigata to be mesophilic, and E. separigata to be thermophobic. This is the first national-scale evaluation of the altitudinal distribution of Ephemera in Korea. These results will be used in a further research study on altitudinal shift of the species of Ephemera under climate change.

A Copula method for modeling the intensity characteristic of geotechnical strata of roof based on small sample test data

  • Jiazeng Cao;Tao Wang;Mao Sheng;Yingying Huang;Guoqing Zhou
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.601-618
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    • 2024
  • The joint probability distribution of uncertain geomechanical parameters of geotechnical strata is a crucial aspect in constructing the reliability functional function for roof structures. However, due to the limited number of on-site exploration and test data samples, it is challenging to conduct a scientifically reliable analysis of roof geotechnical strata. This study proposes a Copula method based on small sample exploration and test data to construct the intensity characteristics of roof geotechnical strata. Firstly, the theory of multidimensional copula is systematically introduced, especially the construction of four-dimensional Gaussian copula. Secondly, data from measurements of 176 groups of geomechanical parameters of roof geotechnical strata in 31 coal mines in China are collected. The goodness of fit and simulation error of the four-dimensional Gaussian Copula constructed using the Pearson method, Kendall method, and Spearman methods are analyzed. Finally, the fitting effects of positive and negative correlation coefficients under different copula functions are discussed respectively. The results demonstrate that the established multidimensional Gaussian Copula joint distribution model can scientifically represent the uncertainty of geomechanical parameters in roof geotechnical strata. It provides an important theoretical basis for the study of reliability functional functions for roof structures. Different construction methods for multidimensional Gaussian Copula yield varying simulation effects. The Kendall method exhibits the best fit in constructing correlations of geotechnical parameters. For the bivariate Copula fitting ability of uncertain parameters in roof geotechnical strata, when the correlation is strong, Gaussian Copula demonstrates the best fit, and other Copula functions also show remarkable fitting ability in the region of fixed correlation parameters. The research results can offer valuable reference for the stability analysis of roof geotechnical engineering.

Dynamical Evolution of Mass Function and Radial Profile of the Globular Cluster System of M87

  • Shin, Ji-Hye;Kim, Sung-Soo S.
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.56.2-56.2
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    • 2010
  • M87, a cD galaxy in the Virgo cluster, has 3-10 times larger enclosed mass than the Milky Way at any given galactocentric radius. Thus the globular cluster (GC) system in M87 is expected to have undergone a more significant dynamical evolution than that of the Milky Way if it had started from the same initial mass function (MF) and radial distribution (RD) as the Milky Way. The evolution of MF and RD of the M87 GC system has been calculated using an advanced, realistic Fokker-Planck (FP) model that considers dynamical friction, disk/bulge shocks, and eccentric cluster orbits. We perform hundreds of FP calculations with different initial cluster conditions, and then search a wide parameter space for the best-fit initial GC MF and RD that evolves into the observed present-day GC MF and RD. We also find best-fit initial MFs and RDs for blue and red GC groups, separately.

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Soccer goal distributions in K-league (K-리그에서 축구 골의 분포)

  • Lee, Jang Taek
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.1231-1239
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    • 2014
  • In this paper we analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams and away teams in K-league soccer outcomes between 1983 and 2012. Real soccer data is explained in K-league using statistical distributions such that Poisson, negative binomial, extreme value and zero inflated Poisson. How close the goals of home and away fits the different distributions are tested by performing chi-square goodness of fit tests. According to these tests, the Poisson distribution gives the best fit to the home goals data. But it is best to model the away goals data on zero inflated Poisson distribution. Also, there is some weak evidence of the dependence for home and away goals.

Statistical Studies on the Derivation of Design Low Flows (I) (설계갈수량의 유도를 위한 수문통계학적 연구 (I))

  • 이순혁;박영근;박종근
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 1992
  • Design low flows were derived from the decision of a best fitting probability distribution and of an optimum transformation method can be contributed to the planning of water utilization and management of various hydraulic structures during dry season in the main river systems in Korea. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1.Basic statistics for the selected watersheds were calculated as one of means for the analysis of extremal distribution. 2.Parameters for the different frequency distributions were calculated by the method of moment. 3.Type m extremal distribution was confirmed as a best one among others for the frequency distribution of the low flows by x$^2$ goodness of fit test. 4.Formulas for the design low flows of the Type m extremal distribution with two and three parameters were dervied for the selected watersheds. 5.Design low flows for the Type m extremal distribution when a minimum drought is zero or larger than zero were derived for the selected watersheds, respectively. 6.Design low flows of the Type m extremal distribution with two parameters are appeared to be reasonable when a minimum drought approaches to zero and the observed low flows varied within a relating small range while those with three parameters are seemed to be consistent with the probability distribution of low flows when a minimum drought is larger than zero and the observed low flows showed a wide range.

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A Simulation Study on The Discounted Cost Distribution under Age Replacement Policy

  • Dohi, Tadashi;Ashioka, Akira;Kaio, Naoto;Osaki, Shunji
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.134-139
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    • 2004
  • During the last three decades, a few attentions have been paid for investigating the cost distribution for the optimal maintenance problems. In this article, we derive the moment of the discounted cost distribution over an infinite time horizon for the basic age replacement problem. With first two moments of the discounted cost distribution, we approximate the underlying distribution function by three theoretical distributions. Through a Monte Carlo simulation, we conclude that the log-normal distribution is the best fitted one to approximate the discounted cost distribution.

Development and Evaluation of LED Lamp with Rectangular Light Distribution for Growth of Plant (식물성장용 사각배광 LED 조명 개발 및 평가)

  • Yun, Jung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.126-131
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, plant crops used in the region to grow crops for the LED lighting area of a rectangle to fit the light distribution to maximize the efficiency of a rectangular distribution was made of LED lights. After the fabrication of LED lamps, light distribution, and in the area of $1.2m{\times}3m$ was the analysis of Illuminance chart. As a result of examining the performance light distribution for total Emin/Eav is 56%, and the target area of the light distribution compared to normal lamps Emin/Eav is improved by about 17%. In addition, plants grown in the area to minimize the outgoing light distribution can be focused on the cultivation area, according to the distance of the plants and be able to have the best luminous efficacy is judged.