• IEIE Transactions on Smart Processing and Computing
• /
• v.6 no.1
• /
• pp.18-20
• /
• 2017

In this paper, we propose a new classification method to complement a $na{\ddot{i}}ve$ Bayesian classifier. This classifier assumes data distribution to be Gaussian, finds the discriminant function, and derives the decision curve. However, this method does not investigate finding the decision curve in much detail, and there are some minor problems that arise in finding an accurate discriminant function. Our findings also show that this method could produce errors when finding the decision curve. The aim of this study has therefore been to investigate existing problems and suggest a more reliable classification method. To do this, we utilize the gradient to find the decision curve. We then compare/analyze our algorithm with the $na{\ddot{i}}ve$ Bayesian method. Performance evaluation indicates that the average accuracy of our classification method is about 10% higher than $na{\ddot{i}}ve$ Bayes.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.1365-1374
• /
• 2006

In this paper, we consider a decision-theoretic oriented, objective Bayesian inference for the difference between two normal means with known variances. We derive the Bayesian reference criterion as well as the intrinsic estimator and the credible region which correspond to the intrinsic discrepancy loss and the reference prior. We show the similarity between derived two-sample results and the results for the one-sample case in Bernardo(1999).

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.41 no.4
• /
• pp.171-178
• /
• 2018

Recently, the continuing operation of nuclear power plants has become a major controversial issue in Korea. Whether to continue to operate nuclear power plants is a matter to be determined considering many factors including social and political factors as well as economic factors. But in this paper we concentrate only on the economic factors to make an optimum decision on operating nuclear power plants. Decisions should be based on forecasts of plant accident risks and large and small accident data from power plants. We outline the structure of a decision model that incorporate accident risks. We formulate to decide whether to shutdown permanently, shutdown temporarily for maintenance, or to operate one period of time and then periodically repeat the analysis and decision process with additional information about new costs and risks. The forecasting model to predict nuclear power plant accidents is incorporated for an improved decision making. First, we build a one-period decision model and extend this theory to a multi-period model. In this paper we utilize influence diagrams as well as decision trees for modeling. And bayesian statistical approach is utilized. Many of the parameter values in this model may be set fairly subjective by decision makers. Once the parameter values have been determined, the model will be able to present the optimal decision according to that value.

• IE interfaces
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.211-216
• /
• 2000

A methodology that determines the optimal shutdown time of a nuclear power plant is suggested. The shutdown time is decided considering the trade off between the cost of accident and the loss of profit due to the early shutdown. We adopt the bayesian approach in manipulating the model parameter that predicts the accidents. We build decision tree models and apply dynamic programming approach to decide whether to shutdown immediately or operate one more period. The branch parameters in decision trees are updated by bayesian approach. We apply real data to this model and provide the cost of accidents that guarantees the immediate shutdown.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
• /
• v.13 no.6
• /
• pp.890-900
• /
• 2010

The Bayesian networks methods provide an efficient tool for performing information fusion and decision making under conditions of uncertainty. This paper proposes Bayes estimators for the system effectiveness in energy saving of the wireless sensor networks by use of the Bayesian method under the non-informative prior knowledge about means of active and sleep times based on time frames of sensor nodes in a wireless sensor network. And then, we conduct a case study on some Bayesian estimation models for the system energy saving effectiveness of a wireless sensor network, and evaluate and compare the performance of proposed Bayesian estimates of the system effectiveness in energy saving of the wireless sensor network. In the case study, we have recognized that the proposed Bayesian system energy saving effectiveness estimators are excellent to adapt in evaluation of energy efficiency using non-informative prior knowledge from previous experience with robustness according to given values of parameters.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.31 no.4
• /
• pp.407-413
• /
• 1998

This study reviewed the recent studies for the climate change impact on water resource systems and applied one of the techniques to a real reservoir system - the Skagit hydropower system in U.S.A. The technique assumed that the climate change results in ±5% change in monthly average and/or standard deviation of the observed inflows for the Skagit system. For each case of the altered average and standard deviation, an optimal operating policy was derived using s SDP(Stochastic Dynamic Programming) model and compared with the operating policy for the non-climate change case. The results showed that the oparating policy of the Skagit system is more sensitive to the change in the streamflow average than that in the streamflow standard deviation. The derived operating policies were also simulated using the synthetic streamflow scenarios and their average annual gains were compared as a performance index. To choose the best operating policy among the derived policies, a Bayesian decision strategy was also presented with an example. Keywords : climate change, reservoir operating policy, stochastic dynamic programming, Bayesian decision theory.

• Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.113-118
• /
• 2011

In this paper, we develop a speaker gender classification technique using collaborative sensor fusion for use in a wireless sensor network. The distributed sensor nodes remove the unwanted input data using the BER(Band Energy Ration) based voice activity detection, process only the relevant data, and transmit the hard labeled decisions to the fusion center where a global decision fusion is carried out. This takes advantages of power consumption and network resource management. The Bayesian sensor fusion and the global weighting decision fusion methods are proposed to achieve the gender classification. As the number of the sensor nodes varies, the Bayesian sensor fusion yields the best classification accuracy using the optimal operating points of the ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves_ For the weights used in the global decision fusion, the BER and MCL(Mutual Confidence Level) are employed to effectively combined at the fusion center. The simulation results show that as the number of the sensor nodes increases, the classification accuracy was even more improved in the low SNR(Signal to Noise Ration) condition.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.53 no.8
• /
• pp.2534-2546
• /
• 2021

Nuclear emergency preparedness and response is an essential part to ensure the safety of nuclear power plant (NPP). Key support technologies of nuclear emergency decision-making usually consist of accident diagnosis, source term estimation, accident consequence assessment, and protective action recommendation. Source term estimation is almost the most difficult part among them. For example, bad communication, incomplete information, as well as complicated accident scenario make it hard to determine the reactor status and estimate the source term timely in the Fukushima accident. Subsequently, it leads to the hard decision on how to take appropriate emergency response actions. Hence, this paper aims to develop a method for rapid source term estimation to support nuclear emergency decision making in pressurized water reactor NPP. The method aims to make our knowledge on NPP provide better support nuclear emergency. Firstly, this paper studies how to build a Bayesian network model for the NPP based on professional knowledge and engineering knowledge. This paper presents a method transforming the PRA model (event trees and fault trees) into a corresponding Bayesian network model. To solve the problem that some physical phenomena which are modeled as pivotal events in level 2 PRA, cannot find sensors associated directly with their occurrence, a weighted assignment approach based on expert assessment is proposed in this paper. Secondly, the monitoring data of NPP are provided to the Bayesian network model, the real-time status of pivotal events and initiating events can be determined based on the junction tree algorithm. Thirdly, since PRA knowledge can link the accident sequences to the possible release categories, the proposed method is capable to find the most likely release category for the candidate accidents scenarios, namely the source term. The probabilities of possible accident sequences and the source term are calculated. Finally, the prototype software is checked against several sets of accident scenario data which are generated by the simulator of AP1000-NPP, including large loss of coolant accident, loss of main feedwater, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture. The results show that the proposed method for rapid source term estimation under nuclear emergency decision making is promising.

• Proceedings of the KSPS conference
• /
• 2005.11a
• /
• pp.151-154
• /
• 2005

원거리 음성인식에서 인식률의 성능향상을 위해 필수적인 다채널 마이크 환경에서 방 안의 도처에 분산되어있는 원거리 마이크를 사용하여 TV, 조명 등의 주변 환경을 음성으로 제어하고자 한다. 이를 위해 각 채널의 인식결과를 통합하여 최적의 결과를 얻고자 채널의N-best 결과와 N-best 결과에 포함된 hypothesis의 frame-normalized likelihood 값을 사용하여 Bayesian network을 훈련하고 인식결과를 통합하여 최선의 결과를 decision 하는데 사용함으로써 원거리 음성인식의 성능을 향상시키고 또한 hands-free 응용을 현실화하기위한 방향을 제시한다.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.51-65
• /
• 2008

The purpose of this paper is introducing WiFi based EKF(Extended Kalman Filter) method for indoor positioning. The advantages of our EKF method include: 1) Any special equipment dedicated for positioning is not required. 2) implementation of EKF does not require off-line phase of fingerprinting methods. 3) The EKF effectively minimizes squared deviation of the trilateration method. In order to experimentally prove the advantages of our method, we implemented indoor positioning systems making use of the K-NN(K Nearest Neighbors), Bayesian, decision tree, trilateration, and our EKF methods. Our experimental results show that the average-errors of K-NN, Bayesian and decision tree methods are all close to 2.4 meters whereas the average errors of trilateration and EKF are 4.07 meters and 3.528 meters, respectively. That is, the accuracy of our EKF is a bit inferior to those of fingerprinting methods. Even so, our EKF is accurate enough to be used for practical indoor LBS systems. Moreover, our EKF is easier to implement than fingerprinting methods because it does not require off-line phase.