• Title/Summary/Keyword: average value at risk

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A Temporal Trend of Dioxins Levels in Environmental Media

  • Park, Kyunghee;Daeil Kang;Junheon Youn;Lee, Choong;Sunghwan Jeon;Jingyun Na
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society of Environmental Toocicology Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.148-148
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    • 2003
  • This study is to investigate the environmental levels and trend of dioxins, which was the 3$\^$rd/ year of environmental monitoring research for endocrine disrupting chemicals since 1999. Total 282 samples were analyzed from 115 sites including 26 sites of airs, 43 sites of waters, 11 sites of sediments and 35 sites of soil, which were the same as those of investigated sites in 2000. Sampling period was from June 2001 to June 2002. Target chemicals were seventeen species of 2,3,7,8-chlorine-substituted PCDD and PCDF congeners and were analyzed by the standard methods, established by National Institute Environmental Research (NIER). The average concentration of dioxins in air decreased from 0.324 pg-TEQ/N㎥ in 2000 to 0.287 pg-TEQ/N㎥ in 2001, and those in water and soil were 0.073pg-TEQ/L and 1.703pg-TEQ/dry g, respectively, which was the less values detected in 2000. In sediment, however, the value was 0.086pg-TEQ/dry g, which was the increase from the value of the year 2000. The concentration range of dioxins in air for 26 sites in 17 regions detected were 0.013∼l.664pg-TEQ/N㎥, 4 sites from those were exceeded the Air Quality Standards of Dioxin in Japan (0.6 pg-TEQ/N㎥). The tolerable daily intake of dioxins was calculated at the highest level (1.664) in air, with referring the soil and food data from Japan, was calculated to be 2.85pg-TEQ/kg/day, which was below the level of 4 pg-TEQ/kg/day suggested in KFDA(Korea). While the average concentration of dioxins in 15 big cities was 0.190 pg-TEQ/N㎥, that in 8 medium/small cities constituting an industrial complex was 0.558 pg-TEQ/N㎥. In water, the concentration range detected were 0∼0.946pg-TEQ/L and the trend of the average concentrations shows an increase from those of 1999 but decreased from those of 2000, any sites however were not exceeded the Water Quality Standards of Dioxin in Japan (1 pg- TEQ/L). In soil. the detected range were 0∼43.333 pg-TEQ/dry g and the average concentration decreased, compared with the results of 2000. According to the monitoring results by land utilization, the detected range were 0∼43.333pg-TEQ/dry g in farmland, 0.017∼0.601 pg-TEQ/dry g in the industrial area, 0.005∼0.049pg-TEQ/dry g in the park and 0.008∼1.825 pg-TEQ/dry g in the rest. In sediment, the detected range increased from 0∼0.244 pg-TEQ/dry g to 0∼0.537 pg-TEQ/dry g, based on the results of 2000. For the proper control of dioxins, continuous monitoring needs to be performed and in addition, the dioxin inventory should be prepared for major sources through the dioxin emission survey. These results would provide sound and solid basis for proper decision making of dioxins management like establishment of environmental quality standards in Korea.

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A Study on the Risk Management Information System of the Underground Space - focused on Fire Growth Risk Assessment System- (지하공간의 위험관리정보시스템에 관한 연구 -화재확산평가시스템 중심으로-)

  • 박종근;노삼규
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2002
  • A large number of accidents at an underground place have been happening, including the gas explosion under construction of subway; the fires of underground utility and underground shopping malls, and other explosion, at home and abroad recently. These accidents make the function of a city ineffective due to the paralyses of electricity and communications net as well as the loss of property and cause people to feel unsecured with accompaniment of a heavy of toll of lives. This research will show evaluation methods of a numerical value of expected average loss space of combustion with the use of probability in order to present potential risk of combustion growth that underground space might cause, and how designer decides a system that enables us to compare and evaluate relatively the effectiveness of measures for preventing burning by calculating the expansion route and the damage size of burning in case of fire.

Evaluation on Four Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) Contents in the Groundwater and Their Human Risk Level

  • Song, Dahee;Park, Sunhwa;Jeon, Sang-Ho;Hwang, Jong Yeon;Kim, Moonsu;Jo, Hun-Je;Kim, Deok-Hyun;Lee, Gyeong-Mi;Kim, Ki-In;Kim, Hye-Jin;Kim, Tae-Seung;Chung, Hyen Mi;Kim, Hyun-Koo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.235-250
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    • 2017
  • In this study, we monitored 4 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as chloroform, dichloromethane, 1,2-dichloroethane, and tetrachloromethane in groundwater samples to determine the detection frequency and their concentrations and evaluated the health risk level considering ingestion, inhalation, and skin contact. 75 groundwater wells were selected. 24 wells were from monitoring background groundwater quality level and 51 wells were from monitoring groundwater quality level in industrial or contamination source area. In the results, the detection frequency for chloroform, dichloromethane, 1,2-dichloroethane, and tetrachloromethane was 42.3%, 8.1%, 6.0%, and 3.4%, respectively. The average concentrations of VOCs were high in the order of chloroform ($1.7{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$), dichloromethane ($0.08{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$), tetrachloromethane ($0.05{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$), and 1,2-dichloroethane ($0.05{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$). Chloroform had the highest detection frequency and average detection concentration. In the contaminated groundwater, the detection frequency of VOCs was high in the order of chloroform, dichloromethane, 1,2-dchloroethane, and tetrachloromethane. The average concentrations for chloroform, dichloromethane, 1,2-dichloroethane, and tetrachloromethane were $2.23{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, $0.08{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, $0.07{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, and $0.06{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, respectively. All the 4 compounds were detected at industrial complex and storage tank area. The maximum concentration of chloroform, dichloromethane, and 1,2-dichloroethane was detected at industrial complex area. Especially, the maximum concentration of chloroform and dichloromethane was detected at a chemical factory area. In the uncontaminated groundwater, the detection frequency of VOCs was high in the order of chloroform, dichloromethane, and 1,2-dchloroethane and tetrachloromethane was not detected. The average concentrations for chloroform, dichloromethane, and 1,2-dichloroethane were $0.57{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, $0.07{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, and $0.03{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, respectively. Although chloroform in the uncontaminated groundwater was detected the most, the concentration of chloroform was not exceeding water quality standards. By land use, the maximum detection frequency of 1,2-dichloroethane was found near a traffic area. For human risk assessment, the cancer risk for the 4 VOCs was $10^{-6}{\sim}10^{-9}$, while the non-cancer risk (HQ value) for the 4 VOCs is $10^{-2}{\sim}10^{-3}$.

Development of a Risk Assessment Tool for Emerging Infectious Diseases (신종감염병의 양적 및 질적 혼합 위험 평가 모델 개발)

  • Woo, Darae;Choi, Eunmi;Choe, Young June;Yeh, Jungyong;Park, Sangshin
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.356-367
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    • 2022
  • Background: The emergence of new infectious diseases threatens public health, increasing socioeconomic damage, and national risks. This study aimed to develop an evidence-based risk assessment tool to quickly respond to new infectious diseases. Methods: The risk elements were extracted by reviewing the risk assessment methods of the World Health Organization, United States, Europe, United Kingdom, and Germany, and the validity and priority of elements were determined through expert meetings and Delphi surveys. Then, the scale and level for each risk element were defined and a final score calculation method according to the risk evaluation result was derived. The developed risk assessment tool was verified using data at the time of domestic transmission of an emerging infectious disease. Results: In case of spread of actual infectious diseases, priority is determined based on the criticality of the elements in each area of transmissibility and severity, from which the weighted score of the risk assessment is derived. Then, the risk score for each element was calculated by multiplying the average value of the risk evaluation by its weight and the evaluation risk assessment score for the two areas was calculated. At last, the final score is plotted in a matrix where the x-axis indicates the transmissibility and the y-axis the severity and plotted on the coordinate plane for time series use. Conclusion: With respect to transmissibility and severity, this risk assessment method to respond to new and re-emerging infectious diseases enables rapid and evidence-based evaluation by quantitatively and qualitatively assessing various risk elements.

An Index to Assess Overwork-Related Adverse Effects on Employees Under the Occupational Safety and Health Act in Taiwan

  • Yu-Cheng Lin;Yu-Wen Lin
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.401-407
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    • 2022
  • Background: The present study aimed to digitally evaluate the risk of overwork-related adverse effects (OrAEs) among employees from various occupational categories in Taiwan. Methods: Anonymous data of employees from seven companies/factories providing occupational health services were analyzed. The studied population comprised 5505 employees, and the data analyzed included employment duration, working hours, shift work schedules, and health checkup results. The risk for OrAEs was assessed by an index, Karo index (0-4, the larger the value, the higher the risk for OrAEs) obtained using a risk matrix made up of cardiocerebral and occupational risk factors. Karo index values of 3 and 4 were categorized as at high risk for OrAEs (h-OrAEs). Results: The 5505 employees had an average employment duration of 8.5 years and a mean age of 39.4 years. The prevalence rates for h-OrAEs of the seven companies/factories ranged from 3.9% to 34.2%. There were significant differences in prevalence rates for h-OrAEs between employees of retail stores and high-tech manufacturing factories. Multivariate analysis results indicated that workers of high-tech manufacturing factories had significantly higher risk for h-OrAEs compared with retail store workers. Conclusion: In terms of satisfying health risk management and legal requirements in Taiwan, the newly issued Karo index, which covers a wide range of occupational risk factors, can serve as an assessment and a warning tool for managing the risk of OrAEs in workplaces. To reduce risks for h-OrAEs, active and prudent control of cerebrocardiovascular risks and working hours is recommended.

Distance Identification for Maximum Change in Ship Collision Risk through a Coast Guard Patrol Ship Experiment (해양경찰 함정 실험을 통한 선박충돌 위험도의 변화가 최대인 거리 식별에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dae-Sik;Yim, Jung Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.447-454
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    • 2017
  • Using two large coast guard ships at sea, we created four encounter situations ($000^{\circ}$, $045^{\circ}$, $090^{\circ}$, $135^{\circ}$) with high possibility of collision, from 3 NM up to 0.25 NM. As relative distance was gradually decreased, the subjects were measured at 0.25 NM intervals and perceived ship collision risk (PSCR) was determined by looking at the opponent ship. Characteristics were statistically analyzed using the obtained data. The purpose of this study was to analyze the characteristics of collision risk values obtained from twelve intervals, from 3 NM to 0.25 NM relative to encounter situations by curve fitting with appropriate polynomials, to determine the distance from which the change in perceived collision risk is greatest. As a result, an optimal regression equation for each distance interval was derived from each analysis direction. The greatest variation in average collision risk value was over the range 1.25 ~ 1 NM, and the collision risk value was largest at 1 NM. The maximum change in perceived collision risk was at 1 NM. These results can contribute to preventive guidelines to minimize human error in close proximity situations with a high probability of ship collision.

Volatility Analysis for Multivariate Time Series via Dimension Reduction (차원축소를 통한 다변량 시계열의 변동성 분석 및 응용)

  • Song, Eu-Gine;Choi, Moon-Sun;Hwang, S.Y.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.825-835
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    • 2008
  • Multivariate GARCH(MGARCH) has been useful in financial studies and econometrics for modeling volatilities and correlations between components of multivariate time series. An obvious drawback lies in that the number of parameters increases rapidly with the number of variables involved. This thesis tries to resolve the problem by using dimension reduction technique. We briefly review both factor models for dimension reduction and the MGARCH models including EWMA (Exponentially weighted moving-average model), DVEC(Diagonal VEC model), BEKK and CCC(Constant conditional correlation model). We create meaningful portfolios obtained after reducing dimension through statistical factor models and fundamental factor models and in turn these portfolios are applied to MGARCH. In addition, we compare portfolios by assessing MSE, MAD(Mean absolute deviation) and VaR(Value at Risk). Various financial time series are analyzed for illustration.

Airborne Suspended Particulates Concentration and Cancer Risk Assessment of Polycyclic organic matter in Seoul (서울시 대기부유분진의 농도와 다환방향족 유기물질에 의한 발암 위해성)

  • Park, Seoung-Eun;Chung, Young
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.247-256
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    • 1992
  • Airborne suspended particulates were collected at Shinchon by a high volume cascade impactor from Sep. 1990 to Aug. 1991. Organic matter was extracted from particulates and fractionated by liquid-liquid extraction and thin layer chromatography. Substances in the PAHs and nitroarenes'subfraction of neutral fraction were determined by capillary gas chromatography. Based on unit risk estimates by multi-stage model of benzo[a]pyrene and the results of exposure estimates, cancer risk was assessed. The annual average concentration of total suspended particulates was 201.77g/$m^3$. The percentage of fine particulates was 57.40. The concentration of total suspended particulates showed seasonal variations and was high in winter and spring. The average concentration of extractable organic matter was 8.12g/$m^3$. In all, 21 PAHs were identified and quantified. The annual concentration of fluoranthene was 2.38ng/$m^3$, and that was the highest value of all PAHs. A carcinogenic compound, benzo[a]pyrene, was at a concentration of 1.84ng/$m^3$. All the 10 nitroarenes were also identified and quantified. The major nitroarene in the Shinchon area was 2,7-dinitrofluorene. The annual concentration of 1-nitropyrene was 1.56ng/$m^3$. Concentrations of PAHs and nitroarenes were high in winter and low in summer. The life time excess risk estimates of benzo[a]pyrene was calculated as 0.96 persons/a million population in this experiment. In the rank of relative potenties, carcinogenic effects of the other PAHs were calculated as 0.004-0.108 persons/a million population.

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Indoor Air Quality and Human Health Risk Assessment for Un-regulated Small-sized Sensitive Population Facilities (소규모 다중이용시설의 실내공기질 실태조사 및 건강위해성평가: 민감군 이용시설을 중심으로)

  • Shin, Hyejin;Park, Woosang;Kim, Bokyung;Ji, Kyunghee;Kim, Ki-Tae
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.397-407
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to investigate human health risk assessment of indoor air pollutants at small-sized public-use facilities (e.g., daycare centers, hospital and elderly care facilities) that the susceptible population is mainly used. Methods: To assess indoor air quality (IAQ), the concentrations of indoor air contaminants such as HCHO, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, styrene, PM-10, CO, $NO_2$ and $O_3$ in air samples were measured according to the Indoor Air Quality Standard Method. By conducting the questionnaire survey, the major factors influencing IAQ were identified. Human health risk assessment was carried out in the consideration of type of use (user and worker) at 75 daycare centers, 34 hospitals and 40 elderly care facilities. Results: As a result of measurement of indoor air contaminants, the average concentration of HCHO and TVOCs in hospitals was higher than daycare centers and elderly care facilities, about 8.8 and 23.5% of hospitals were exceeded by IAQ standard. In human health risk assessment, for the user of daycare centers and elderly care facilities, the mean carcinogenic risk of HCHO inhalation was higher than acceptable value. Except for HCHO, other values were determined under acceptable risk. Similarly, for the worker of hospitals, the mean carcinogenic risk of HCHO inhalation was higher than acceptable value and other values were evaluated under acceptable risk. In contrast, the risk levels of other contaminants measured in elderly care facilities were acceptable. In the determination of factors influencing IAQ, the construction year, building type, ventilation time, and the use of air cleaner were identified. Conclusions: This study provides the information for establishing the plans of public health management of IAQ at small-sized public-use facilities that have not yet been placed under the regulation. The findings suggest the consideration of human health risk assessment results for the IAQ standards.

Determination of Airborne Fiber Size and Concentration in RCF Manufacturing and Processing Factories (세라믹 섬유 제조 및 가공 공정에서 발생된 공기중 섬유의 농도 및 크기 분포)

  • 신용철
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2000
  • Various man-made mineral fibers(MMMF) including refractory ceramic fiber(RCF) have been used widely in industries as insulation materials. The effect of fibrous dust on human health depends on fiber size, concentration (exposure level), and durability in biological system. Therefore, these parameters should be determined to evaluate accurately the potential risk of fibers on human health. The purpose of this study was to characterize the size of airborne fiber and the workers' exposure to airborne fibers in refractory ceramic fiber manufacturing and processing factories. Airborne fibers were collected on 25-mm mixed cellulose ester membrane filters at personal breathing zones, and analyzed by A and B counting rules of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health(NIOSH) Method # 7400. The average ratios of the fiber density by B rule to the fiber density by A rule was 0.84. This result indicates that the proportion of respirable fibers (<3 ${\mu}{\textrm}{m}$ diameter) in air samples was high. The average diameter and length of airborne fibers were 1.05${\mu}{\textrm}{m}$ and 35${\mu}{\textrm}{m}$, respectively. The average fiber concentrations (GM) of all personal samples was 0.26f/cc, and the average concentration was highest at blanket cutting and packing processes. The fifty seven percent of personal air samples was exceeded the proposed American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists(ACGIH) Threshold Limit Value(TLV), i.e. 0.2 f/cc. It was concluded that the RCF industrial workers had the higher potential health risk due to small fiber diameter, long fiber length, and high exposure level to the airborne fibers.

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